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  • Event: (457) Minnesota Vikings at (458) Detroit Lions
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: October 20, 2019 1PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Detroit Lions 1.0 (-108)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Detroit (#458)

    The betting markets are looking at Detroit as a team that can’t stop the run.  I disagree, rather strongly – this is a case where the season long stats simply aren’t telling the full story.

    The Lions got gashed by Kyler Murray in fourth quarter of their opener.  Week 2 against the Chargers, they also got gashed on the ground, although it was a game where the defense allowed only ten points.  In Week 3, Eagles backs had 24 carries for 90 yards.  In Week 4, they held the Chiefs offense out of the end zone, allowing only 69 yards on 19 carries from the running back.  After their bye, last week, they didn’t have a great showing against the Packers running backs, but once again, this defense stiffened – repeatedly – in the red zone.  The Lions ‘bad’ rush defense numbers are largely due to their inability to stop mobile QB’s – Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz, for example.

    Kirk Cousins is not a mobile QB.  The Vikings need to run to win, as we’ve seen on more than one occasion this season – Kirk Cousins is not going to have many games like he had last week against the injury riddled Eagles secondary.  Detroit’s secondary is an elite unit; holding foes to an 82.2 QB rating this season, despite facing a litany of top QB’s.  The Lions run defense is an underrated unit.  And Minnesota is a team we want to back at home or against weak defenses; not a team I’m willing to ask to win on the road against the Lions stout defense.  After a heartbreaker on Monday Night, look for the Lions to bounce back strong here!  Take the Lions.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +1 or higher, 2% at pk or if the Lions are favored

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