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Joe Raineri
  • Event: (919) Houston Astros at (920) New York Yankees
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: October 17, 2019 8PM EDT
    Play: 4% – (919) Houston Astros at (920) New York Yankees 1H Total Under 4.5 (-110)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Win

    So this is do or die for the Yankees in this game. However, just because the Yankees have to win doesn't mean they are going to. However, I believe the real value in this game lies in the total.

    While everyone is making a huge deal out of the 15-18mph winds tonight at Yankee stadium, I want to remind everyone that just because there is wind, doesn't mean that there will be runs scored. In fact, the wind has blown at Yankee stadium all year and it remains one of the most profitable UNDER ballparks in the game. 

    We know how good Tanaka has been in the postseason. He's really been close to unhittable in seven career postseason starts. He comes into this game with a 1.32 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP and is limiting the other teams to a .151 batting average in the postseason. He is what we call a "Money Pitcher" Tanaka has been even better against the Astros. Tanaka also has a 1.94 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP over his last six starts against Houston. He also tends to keep the ball down and has maintained a high groundball rate (47%) and doesn't walk many hitters. That will always allow him to minimize any big innings or damage the Astros hitters can do. 

    Keep in mind that he's pitched well at home this year with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP at home. 

    And for Grienke, we know he lost Game one but he did a pretty good job of limiting the Yankees bats. In fact, he’s been really good against them this year in his three starts, recording a quality start in each. He also has a 2.89 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and struck out 20 Yankees in 18.2 innings.

    The bottom line is that no matter what the wind is doing, these two starting pitchers should be able to handle these lineups at least through the first five innings. In fact, Boone needs Tanaka to go as long as he can. However, even if he gets into trouble early, Boone will goto that bullpen that has been lights out thus far in the series. 

    The best chance the Yanks have of winning this game is to get to the bullpen of the Astrols as soon as they can. That probably won't happen until after the 5th inning but I have no confidence in the Yankee hitters at this moment to back them as a short home favorite. 

    That's why the value lies in the F5 UNDER in this game. The total will be bet up and overvalued which is why I'm betting on these two pitchers to keep everything in check during the F5 innings. 

    Go with the UNDER F5 in this game.

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