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Joe Raineri
  • Event: (389) BAYLOR at (390) OKLAHOMA STATE
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: October 19, 2019 4PM EDT
    Play: 4% – OKLAHOMA STATE -3.5 (-108)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Loss

    This game is a pefect opportunity to buy low on one team and sell high on the other. 

    The Baylor Bears are undefeated and just beat Texas Tech in overtime last week (With The Help Of The Refs) and people are gushing over the start to their season. This would be the perfect time to SELL HIGH on the Bears.

    The Oklahoma State Cowboys lost to the Texas Tech Raiders two weeks ago, on the road, and turned the ball over 5 times in that game. They are coming off their bye week and now would be the time to BUY LOW on the Cowboys.

    The records don't tell the story of these two teams. The Cowboys have played a much tougher schedule than the Baylor Bears. The Bears barely beat the Texas Tech Raiders last week AT HOME, while the Cowboys lost their game on the road. Big difference. 

    But the good news is, those results against a common opponent have given us a great value play on the Pokes in this game. Especially at Stillwater. OK STATE was a 10 point favorite on the road against Texas Tech while Baylor was right around that number at home against the Red Raiders. Now, in Stillwater, this line implies that these two teams are just about even. Nothing that has happened over the last two weeks tells me that's the case. OK STATE has played a much harder schedule. This is a market over-reaction. 

    Spencer Sanders is a freshman QB in his first year as a starter for the Pokes and.coming off a bye week in which Mike Gundy and the staff will help clean some things up.  Oklahoma State at home with Mike Gundy as their coach are ridiculous at home. He owns a crazy 69-45-0 career record against the spread as a favorite, making him the most-profitable active coach as a favorite since 2005. It's even more ridiculous as a home favorite? 42-25-0 and that's best among all 361 current and former coaches since 2005.

    His teams also always play better off a loss. This is a terrible spot for the Baylor Bears, who are a very good team but in a terrible situational spot here. On the road, against the Pokes coming off a bye. Not good.

    That's why I'll be betting on the Pokes to win and cover this game at home.