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Recent Play Details

Nick Borrman
  • Event: CSA at Gremio
    Sport/League: SOC
    Date/Time: November 7, 2019 7PM EST
    Play: 3% – CSA +2.0 (-120)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    Brazil Serie A

    (208285) CSA at (208286) Gremio

    Not much question here that Gremio is the better team, but two full goals in a low scoring Serie A is a lot to lay.  Gremio is 14-8-8 on the season with a +22 goal differential including 9-3-3 with a +15 differential at home.  However, Gremio has just six wins on the year by more than two goals, just 20% win rate against this number.  Three of those were at home in 15 matches so same win rate there as well.

    CSA, as bad as their record is at 7-8-15 with a -22 goal differential including just 1-3-11 on the road with a -21 goal differential, tend to keep most games close as they are only conceding 1.4 goals per game.  They have just four losses by more than two goals this season in 30 matches, so only a 13.3% loss rate including just a 0-1 loss at the league's best team, Flamengo.

    These teams played to a 0-0 draw earlier this season with CSA not allowing a single shot on goal to Gremio, and while I don't necessarily expect that to happen again, I do think CSA can keep this within the number.

    TAKE CSA +2

    Line Parameter: 3% at +2 or better up to -130, 2% at +1.75

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