Teddy Covers

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Baltimore Ravens -5.0 (-110)

Take Baltimore (#453)

There’s only one reason to make a Week 1 NFL bet now, over the summer, as opposed to waiting for Week 1 to roll around in September.  That reason? Taking advantage of a pointspread that is not likely to be there for much longer.  This game stands out in that regard.

John Harbaugh has his team ready coming out of training camp, year after year.  The results do not lie.  In Week 1 in the five years before last season, the Ravens were 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS winning by margins of 6, 20, 44, 49 and 32 points.  The Ravens extraordinary preseason success has clearly paid dividends in every recent Week 1 affair.

But last year, Baltimore lost in overtime against the Raiders in Week 1 after blowing a two TD lead; a loss that was the difference between a winning and losing record for the season in their disappointing campaign.  The Jets are likely to be improved in 2022, but they’re primed to struggle in the trenches here on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  I’m expecting the Ravens to ‘bring it’ in their opener, like they usually do, and I’m not anticipating all that much betting market support for the Jets in this matchup.  Let’s lock in on the Ravens Week 1 right now – barring major injury, this line can only go higher.  Take the Ravens.

The PLAY: 3% New York Giants OVER 7 Wins

3% Take the New York Giants OVER 7 Wins

Based on my adjusted power ratings for every team, every week (not the final numbers, which can be very misleading), the Giants faced one of the five toughest schedules in the NFL last year; consistently running into the wrong teams at the wrong times. That’s not likely to be the case in 2022. Based on THIS year’s season win totals, the G-men face the single weakest slate of opponents in the NFL.

NFC East teams play six games against their own division and four games each against the NFC North and AFC South. In division, they get bottom-feeder Washington. In the NFC North, they’ve got Detroit and Chicago, while the Packers appear somewhat vulnerable and the Vikings mediocre. In the AFC South, it's a similar story — no elite teams, two bottom feeders (Houston and Jacksonville), and two ‘ok’ teams — Indy and Tennessee. And the Giants also face three last place teams from last year in other divisions, including Carolina and Seattle, both expected to be competing for last place again this year. Unlike last year, in 2022, the G-men have a plethora of ‘step-down-in-class’ winnable games. Just about every strength of schedule analysis based on 2022 season win totals shows the G-men with the weakest slate of opponents in the NFL this year.

And because of that weak schedule, there are all kinds of value on the G-men this offseason because there is a ZERO betting bandwagon for this team. Over the last five seasons, the Giants are 5-0 UNDER their win totals; winning 3, 5, 4, 6, and 4 games.  They covered only six-point spreads in 17 games last year; tied for the fewest ATS covers in the league. This is not a team that the betting markets are primed to overvalue heading into the campaign.

The Giants have accumulated an enormous amount of talent through all of those high draft choices (thanks to poor finishes) and some significant free agent spending. They declined QB Daniel Jones fifth year option, giving them, even more, $$ to spend and ensuring that Jones will be as fully focused as a QB can be; a guy who, with a good season, can earn a $100 million contract and with a bad season will never get another starting opportunity other than in the ‘fill-in on a bottom feeder’ or ‘train the new guy role, a difference of what 80-90 million or so. A smart David Cutcliffe-coached kid from Duke knows that full well. Every offseason quote from Danny Dimes sounds like this: “ “I’m certainly confident in myself,’’ Jones said. “I’m confident in the team we have and the coaches and the system. … My job is to prepare to play as well as I can, help the team win games, and that’s certainly what I’m focused on.’’  And if Jones fails, Tyrod Taylor falls into the ‘decent veteran backup’ category, not the ‘hopeless’ category.

The G-men brought in a new GM and coaching staff from Buffalo, along with a pair of new coordinators. That can ONLY be a good thing; Joe Judge and Pat Shurmur combined to cost this team a handful of games over the last two seasons; Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka (another smart kid, once the Northwestern QB) can only make things better in their first year on the job when the focus is there from veterans across the roster.

Let’s not forget that it was only last offseason when the Giants spent like drunken sailors, expecting to contend. There are eight wins of talent on this roster — a loaded receiving corps, an offensive line that looks vastly improved, a strong front seven on defense, and a secondary that has invested ample draft capital and free agent dollars to be solid — especially when we consider how weak this schedule truly is.  All we need is mediocrity to cash this bet; something the Giants are more than capable of achieving.  Take the Giants OVER.