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Last updated Sep 25, 10:44 PM EDT
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Today’s Free Picks
Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
---|---|---|
CFB | (113) Louisville at (114) NC State | 7:00pm EDT - Sep 29/2023 |
The PLAY: Louisville -3.0 (-110)
Take Louisville (#113)
A weaker Louisville team than this one beat NC State by two touchdowns last year. A similar result on Friday Night this time around would be no surprise for this bettor. The Wolfpack haven’t clicked yet in 2023: 0-4 ATS in their four games to open the season. They were blown off the field at home in their only previous ‘step-up-in-class’ game, losing by three TD’s on this field, and couldn’t extend leads against any of the three weaker foes that they faced.
Wolfpack QB Brennan Armstrong is the team’s leading rusher – never a good thing when their top back is averaging less than 30 yards per game against lesser competition. He's thrown nearly as many INT’s (4) as TD passes (5), picking up right where he left off last year (7 TD’s and 12 INT’s while completing less than 55% of his pass attempts).
Here's an excerpt from what I wrote about Louisville for my clients last week, prior to their blowout win over Boston College: “Louisville fell asleep with a three TD lead at Indiana last week, lucky to escape with the victory after a nasty second half meltdown. I don’t expect them to fall asleep with a lead again this week; a game where the Cardinals are primed to control the flow on both sides of the football. Chalk worth laying!” I expect more of the same on Friday Night in Raleigh. Take Louisville.
Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
---|---|---|
NFL | (259) Baltimore Ravens at (260) Cleveland Browns | 1:00pm EDT - Oct 1/2023 |
The PLAY: Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-115)
2% Take Cleveland (#260)
Let me start with a Strength of Schedule issue that stands out after three games. The Ravens haven’t exactly stepped up in class yet; facing Houston, a Cincinnati team that hasn’t started to click yet and Indianapolis; not exactly a who’s who of solid offensive ballclubs thusfar. Cleveland has faced Cinci, Pittsburgh and Tennessee already – three elite defensive squads. Baltimore hasn’t even been able to dominate weaker foes, Cleveland has gone 2-1 facing a MUCH tougher slate. The Browns loss on Monday Night Football vs Pittsburgh ensures that the public hasn’t fallen in love with this team – there’s still legitimate ‘value’ supporting the Browns in the betting markets heading into Week 4.
The Browns defensive numbers are elite; bad news for a mediocre, banged up and already struggling Ravens offense. Cleveland ranks #1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed; Baltimore’s lack of big plays has been a major issue – only three plays of more than 20 yards in three games. The Ravens won’t be the fresher team here, coming off an OT loss – their defense was on the field for more than 80 plays last Sunday. And Baltimore’s injury woes continue to mount; a big part of the reason why the ‘sharp’ $$ poured in on the Browns at the opener. Short chalk worth laying. Take the Browns.
Line Parameter: 2% at -3 or lower, no action at -3.5 or higher
Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
---|---|---|
CFB | (185) Alabama at (186) Mississippi State | 9:00pm EDT - Sep 30/2023 |
The PLAY: Total Under 46.5 (-110)
Take Alabama – Mississippi State UNDER (#185 186)
The sky is not falling in Tuscaloosa, as Alabama rallied back from a halftime deficit to beat Ole Miss last week. That said, after getting smacked at home by Texas earlier, the 24 points ‘Bama put up against a lesser defense is certainly cause for concern, especially on the heels of a sluggish 17 point offensive showing the previous week at South Florida. QB Jalen Milroe said it right with his postgame quote, calling the Crimson Tide offense a ‘work in progress’.
Alabama’s defense is not a ‘work in progress’; it’s an elite unit filled with future NFL stars. They held a powerful Ole Miss offense to just 4.0 yards per play in the second half. The Bulldogs are a team in transition from Mike Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ attack last year to a run based offense under Zack Arnett in 2023. It hasn’t mattered what offense Mississippi State has run against Alabama in recent meetings – it hasn’t worked, producing 6, 9, 0, 7 and 0 points in the last five meetings. I’m not convinced in the slightest that this year’s meeting will be any different. Expect a low scoring game amidst the cowbells on Saturday Night. Take the UNDER.
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Consultant Bio
Ted Sevransky – better known as Teddy Covers – moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports full-time back in 1998 and he's been doing it successfully ever since. During that time, Teddy has been featured prominently in the mainstream press. Print highlights include the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Boston Globe, Las Vegas Review Journal and Playboy magazine. Television highlights include CBS This Morning, CNBC, PBS and Bloomberg TV. Teddy starred in the recent sports betting documentary “Life on the Line” and has been featured in an ESPN 30-for-30 and on Showtime's 'Action' miniseries.
Teddy is a 1992 University of Michigan graduate. His handicapping approach is fine tuned for the modern betting marketplace in 2023; a market that is dominated by stat-based ‘quants’ - the ‘sharp’ money. In one sentence, Teddy looks to identify and identify and isolate 'morphing' teams -- teams that are currently playing at a different level or pace (better or worse; faster or slower) than their long term statistical profile would indicate. Those become teams to bet on, bet against, bet over and bet under, until the quants catch up with current realities and value them correctly.
This ‘ride the hot & fade the cold’ approach has allowed Teddy to provide for himself and his family with steady income from his sports betting winnings, over more than two decades. And those two decades of experience grinding it out in Vegas allows Teddy to avoid some of the traps and pitfalls that befall many ‘cappers. Teddy is one bettor who can handle the highs and lows of this sometimes zany and always exciting business with consistent, calm professionalism.