Free NBA Basketball Predictions for May 4

Oskeim Sports

Event: (553) Minnesota Timberwolves at (554) San Antonio Spurs: Spread

Sport/League: NBA

Date/Time: May 4, 2026 9:42 PM EDT

Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: San Antonio Spurs -11.5 (-105)

Minnesota arrives in San Antonio off a 110-98 win over the Nuggets in its opening round series, but NBA playoff underdogs of two points or greater are just 183-247-5 ATS (42.6%) following a win that went under the total. In addition, NBA playoff road underdogs by more than 4 points are 87-123-2 ATS (41.4%) following a double-digit home win, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 2.5 points per game. Let’s also note that NBA favorites entering a game as favorites are 119-92-3 ATS (56.4%) versus avenging opponents coming off an upset win as underdogs. Minnesota has been installed as an underdog in each of its last four games, which is significant because NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back games as underdogs are 273-356-13 ATS (43.4%). The team’s respective records are noteworthy: NBA playoff favorites with a -9 or greater spread and seven or more wins than their opponent are 149-96-3 ATS (60.8%) since 1995. San Antonio eliminated the Trail Blazers in Game 5 of its first-round playoff series, limiting Portland to just 35% shooting from the field (33-of-94). NBA teams coming off a game in which they limited their opponent to a field goal percentage of .360 or less are 174-134-6 ATS (56.5%) in their next game. Don’t be concerned about the large spread in this game, as NBA playoff favorites of -9 or greater are 88-68-2 ATS (56.4%) since 2003, versus opponents entering off a game in which they were underdogs of +6 or more. The Timberwolves were 7.5-point underdogs in Game 6 of their series against Denver, thereby falling squarely within the foregoing situation. Finally, Game 1 favorites of -11 or greater are 36-2 SU and 30-8 ATS (78.9%) in postseason play, including 8-1 SU and ATS (88.9%) since 2019, winning by an average margin of 22.4 points per game and covering by an average of 9.4 points per game. Lay the points with San Antonio as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Monday, May 4.

PROVEN PERFORMANCE

-> Torrid 130-92 Overall Run | +69 Units
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-> Red-Hot 40-28 (59%) NBA Run
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Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Teddy Covers

Event: (551) Philadelphia 76ers at (552) New York Knicks: Spread

Sport/League: NBA

Date/Time: May 4, 2026 8:12 PM EDT

Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: New York Knicks -7.0 (-110)

Take the New York Knicks (#552)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below offers my takes on both NBA Playoff Game 1’s tonight: Knicks - 76ers and Timberwolves - Spurs.  Here’s a brief synopsis of my pro-Knicks opinion for Monday.  The concept here is simple.  I’m looking to fade any  team coming off a Game 7 win vs an opponent NOT coming off a Game 7 win.  The Knicks are rested and ready; the 76ers are coming off the three biggest victories in recent franchise history with precious little time to rest and recouperate before starting the next series.  While Philly may be live as the series progresses, Game 1 points towards the home favorite winning by margin.  Take the Knicks

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Steve Seagrave

Event: (551) Philadelphia 76ers at (552) New York Knicks: Karl-Anthony Towns Points + Assists

Sport/League: NBA

Date/Time: May 4, 2026 8:12 PM EDT

Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Karl-Anthony Towns Points + Assists Over 23.5 (-106)

Seagrave is on a strong 27-17 (61%) run with his posted Free Picks since March 19th!

Next Winner HERE:

Karl-Anthony Towns Points + Assists Over 23.5 (-106):

Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off a relatively low usage first round against the Atlanta Hawks, but he still covered this PA in 3 of 6 games while landing on 22 (twice) and 20 PA in the other three games. Now Towns gets a favorable matchup against Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers who he's recorded 27, 25 & 11 PA in their last three head-to-head meetings. The 11 PA effort was due to Towns only playing only 16 minutes in a game where he fouled out. Embiid was clearly not 100% in Game 7 against the Boston Celtics as he's still working his way back into shape after being diagnosed with appendicitis. The Sixers will be dealing with a quick turnaround while the Knicks enjoy the rest advantage at home. Embiid and KAT as had heated exchanges in the past and Towns should be looking to attack and wear down the Sixers center.

*Playable at -130 or better

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Dan Kaiser

Event: (551) Philadelphia 76ers at (552) New York Knicks: Spread

Sport/League: NBA

Date/Time: May 4, 2026 8:12 PM EDT

Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 (-110)

All signs point to the Knicks in game one. The Knicks are at home, they have a rest advantage, and Embiid came up limping at the end of Game 7 for Philadelphia. The Knicks have also won 7 of the last 9 games against the 76ers. The 76ers are  5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU as an underdog since April 21. The Knicks are hard to figure out; take the points in this one.

Play on Philadelphia. This is a 3% play.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

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The Gold Sheet

Event: (553) Minnesota Timberwolves at (554) San Antonio Spurs: Jaden McDaniels Points

Sport/League: NBA

Date/Time: May 4, 2026 9:42 PM EDT

Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Jaden McDaniels Points Over 16.5 (-120)

A big reason the Timberwolves were able to take down the Nuggets despite missing Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo for the final two and a half games was Jaden McDaniels. He scored 32 points on 13-of-25 shooting in Game 6 and we’ll look for him to go over 16.5 points in Game 1 at San Antonio tonight. Although Edwards is questionable going into tonight, we can’t imagine his knee is at 100-percent, and even if he does play, McDaniels should play a formidable part in the Timberwolves' offense again tonight. He averaged 16 points per game in three head-to-head matchups against San Antonio this season, and in all of those games, DiVincenzo and Edwards were healthy and active. McDaniels is averaging 18.7 points per 40 minutes played this season, and we think he has a great chance to play near 40 minutes on Monday after he did it twice last series against the Nuggets. In an effort to keep Game 1 close on the road, let’s take McDaniels to go over 16.5 points for the injury-ridden Timberwolves.

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Billy Coleman

Event: (551) Philadelphia 76ers at (552) New York Knicks: Spread

Sport/League: NBA

Date/Time: May 4, 2026 8:12 PM EDT

Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 (-110)

My concern with game 1 this evening is that Philadelphia might come out a bit flat off that 3-1 comeback against Boston. New York disposed of Atlanta in 6 games with the last one being a major blowout. NY was a 5.5-6 point favorite against Atlanta in game 1. I think a healthy Sixers team is better than Atlanta and they are getting 7.5 tonight. Pizza money on Philly tonight.

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Pro Sports Picks

Event: (553) Minnesota Timberwolves at (554) San Antonio Spurs: Total

Sport/League: NBA

Date/Time: May 4, 2026 9:42 PM EDT

Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Total Under 217.5 (-109)

PSP Data Driven play on Under.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Under. The Under is 4-2 in Minnesota's last 6 games. The Under is 4-1 in San Antonio's last 5 games.

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

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