Tokyo Brandon
Event: (963) New York Yankees at (964) Seattle Mariners: Moneyline
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: March 31, 2026 9:40 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: New York Yankees -112 Max Fried (LHP), Logan Gilbert (RHP) Must Start
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Fried brings the better run-prevention baseline after a 19-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP 2025 and a scoreless 6 1/3 in his 2026 opener; Gilbert’s baseline is still strong after a 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP 2025, though his opener was a 5 1/3-IP, 3-ER outing. T-Mobile Park is still one of MLB’s most run-suppressing parks, with MLB listing it 30th in runs and hits and 20th in homers over 2023-25, while Statcast’s 2025 park factor page showed a 91 run factor there.
Seattle entered this game 5th in MLB in runs and 8th in OPS, while the Yankees were 15th in runs and 17th in OPS; on the mound, New York entered 1st in MLB team ERA and Seattle 8th. Sample too small to trust.
The roster/travel context is mildly favorable to Seattle. New York is continuing a West Coast trip from San Francisco to Seattle, while Seattle stays home after the Cleveland series, so there is no “returning home from road trip” flat-spot deduction for either club. Injury-wise, Anthony Volpe is out for the Yankees and J.P. Crawford out for Seattle, which affects the likely bottom-third lineup construction for both teams. Weather is mostly a non-factor here because the game is at T-Mobile Park, and ESPN listed Seattle gametime conditions in the mid-to-upper 50s.
The cleanest HTH Yankees note is Cody Bellinger: 5 AB, .600 AVG, 1.100 OPS vs. Gilbert. For Seattle vs. Fried, the preview snippet shows Randy Arozarena 0-for-4, Mitch Garver .929 OPS in 6 AB, and Josh Naylor with no prior matchup listed, which supports a conclusion of “some scattered familiarity, but not enough to override the core talent/park model.”
Model build
I used this run framework:
Baseline SP run allowance over expected outing length: Fried 2.1 runs allowed over 6.0 IP; Gilbert 2.4 runs allowed over 5.2 IP.
Bullpen add-on: Yankees 1.4 runs over final 3.0 IP; Mariners 1.4 runs over final 3.1 IP.
Park adjustment: -0.35 total runs for T-Mobile suppression.
Night-game adjustment: -0.05 total runs.
No-bottom-9 adjustment: -0.05 runs from Seattle because New York is a slight road favorite in my model.
Travel/fatigue: -0.05 runs from New York for continued road travel; 0.00 for Seattle.
That lands here:
Projected full-game score: NYY 3.8, SEA 3.5
Projected full-game total: 7.3
1) Projected score boxes
1st 5 innings
Team | Projected Runs |
|---|---|
Yankees | 2.1 |
Mariners | 1.9 |
Full game
Team | Projected Runs |
|---|---|
Yankees | 3.8 |
Mariners | 3.5 |
2) Starting pitcher boxscore projection
Pitcher | Team | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Fried | NYY | 6 0/3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
Logan Gilbert | SEA | 5 2/3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
3) Projected hitter stat lines
Yankees
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Austin Wells | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Aaron Judge | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Cody Bellinger | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Paul Goldschmidt | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ryan McMahon | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
José Caballero | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Trent Grisham | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mariners
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brendan Donovan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cal Raleigh | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Julio Rodríguez | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Josh Naylor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Randy Arozarena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Luke Raley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Dominic Canzone | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Cole Young | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Leo Rivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wager & Probability Analysis
Moneyline
Team | Model Win % | Fair Odds | Market Snapshot | Edge vs Fair | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yankees | 54.3% | -119 | -112 to -122 | from +7 cents to -3 cents | Thin edge |
Mariners | 45.7% | +119 | -108 to +102 | clearly worse than fair | No value |
Full-game total
Using model total 7.3:
Market | Model Prob | Fair Odds | Market Snapshot | Edge vs Fair | Value | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 7.0 | 52.3% (push excluded) | -110 | -118 | -8 cents | No value | 1 |
Under 7.0 | 47.7% (push excluded) | +110 | -102 | worse than fair | No value | 1 |
Over 7.5 | 44.6% | +124 | around +100 to -105 range at 7.5 markets | worse than fair | No value | 2 |
Under 7.5 | 55.4% | -124 | around -110 to -115 range at 7.5 markets | modest positive | Small value if you can get 7.5 | 2 |
Team rank snapshot, 1-30
Category | Yankees Rank | Mariners Rank | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher this season | 1 | 8 | Team pitching ERA proxy through season to date |
Bullpen last 10 days | 1 | 8 | Same caveat: early-season proxy from team run prevention because official bullpen-only recent split was not cleanly exposed |
Lineup run production last 10 days | 15 | 5 | Official MLB team runs leaderboard, season-to-date proxy |
These are very small-sample ranks, so I’d treat them as descriptive, not predictive.
Why Yankees -112:
Fried has the stronger run-prevention profile entering the game.
In his 2026 opener, Max Fried went 6 1/3 scoreless innings with a 0.47 WHIP, while Logan Gilbert’s opener was 5 1/3 innings, 3 earned runs with a 5.06 ERA so far. That gives New York the cleaner starting-pitching floor.Fried’s form is exactly what you want for a road favorite in a low-total park.
Reuters’ game recap shows Fried allowed just 2 hits and 1 walk in that opener, and ESPN’s game page confirms this is at T-Mobile Park with Fried vs. Gilbert listed as the probable starters. In a lower-scoring environment, a steadier ace matters more.T-Mobile Park helps the better prevention side.
Statcast’s park factors list T-Mobile Park with a 91 run factor over the relevant rolling window, which is below league average and supports a suppressed-scoring game. That tends to help the side with the slightly better run-prevention projection, which in this matchup is New York because of Fried.The Yankees’ pitching staff has started hotter than Seattle’s.
The series preview notes New York opened the season by allowing just one run over three games in San Francisco. That supports the idea that if Fried gets them through six, the bullpen can protect a narrow edge.The market is close enough that even a modest SP edge can matter.
ESPN’s matchup page had this game around essentially a coin flip, with its predictor at SEA 52% / NYY 48%, and the betting line around Yankees -112 / Mariners -108. When the market is this tight, a model that prefers Fried and makes NYY closer to -119 can justify a small Yankees play.There is at least one notable Yankees batter with good history vs. Gilbert.
MLB’s preview snippet showed Cody Bellinger is 3-for-5 (.600) with a 1.100 OPS vs. Gilbert. Batter-vs-pitcher data is usually secondary, but in a tight game it is one more plus for New York rather than Seattle.
Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago
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Japanese Baseball Bet From a 10-Year MLB Scout and 3-Time #1 Capper: $ 7.00
Tokyo Brandon just released a Japanese baseball bet for Monday, and it’s one of the strongest value spots on the board. As a former Japanese baseball scout for MLB for 10 years and a 3-time #1 capper in profit among all 33 WagerTalk cappers in the last five years, Tokyo Brandon knows how to spot edges others miss. If you’re looking for a high-v ...
Pro Sports Picks
Event: (513) Portland Trail Blazers at (514) Los Angeles Clippers
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 31, 2026 11:10 PM EDT
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Los Angeles Clippers -197
Clippers
Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago
The Money Baller
Event: (501) Phoenix Suns at (502) Orlando Magic: Spread
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 31, 2026 7:10 PM EDT
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Orlando Magic -2.0 (-108)
The biggest thing that stands out here is the situational setup for Phoenix more than anything else. This is a brutal travel and scheduling spot — coming off a stretch that includes going from Phoenix to Memphis and now into Orlando against a team that thrives at home. That kind of spot doesn’t always show up in raw stats, but it absolutely impacts energy, legs, and overall execution…especially for a team like the Suns that relies heavily on shot-making.
From a matchup standpoint, Orlando is built to take advantage of that. They’re one of the more physical defensive teams in the league, and they force you to work deep into the shot clock. That becomes even more effective against a team dealing with travel fatigue. For Phoenix to win this game, they’ll likely need high-end shot-making from their stars and strong efficiency in the half court...but tired legs typically show up first in jump shooting. If those shots aren’t falling early, Orlando has the defensive profile to control the game and grind this into their style.
The way this game sets up, Orlando doesn’t need to be perfect, they just need to be consistent. They’re at home, in the better situational spot, and facing a team that could easily come in a step slow. For the Suns to cover or win outright, they need to overcome the travel, maintain efficiency, and avoid getting dragged into a slower, more physical game. That’s a tough combination, which is why we’re siding with the Magic here at -2.
Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago
Ricky Tran
Event: (967) Colorado Rockies at (968) Toronto Blue Jays: Spread
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: March 31, 2026 7:07 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-113) Max Scherzer (RHP) Must Start
Blue Jays
Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago
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Razor Ray Monohan
Event: (649) Illinois at (650) Connecticut
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: April 4, 2026 6:09 PM EDT
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Under +140 (-110)
UNDER 140
UCONN and Illinois meet in the Final 4 and the under is worth a move. UConn’s defense has been a difference maker all season and especially in the tournament. They shut down shooters and they’re one of the best defensive rebounding teams. They’re going to set the tone earlier and force Illinois into a much slower game than they’d like. This is going to be a half court type of game with both teams slowing the tempo down. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Tonight’s FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER 140 to 138. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.
Saturday FREE Final 4 O/U Play
The wins keep stacking. EN FUEGO! +125.82 units, 60.1% Winning Percentage (140-93-3) , 18.8% ROI since Mid-Dec! The board is live and today’s card is posted. Today’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a Top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he's locked in right now. Clients are cashing, the consistency is showing, and he's climbing the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.
Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago
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$7 RED-HOT MLB | #1 OVERALL +125.82 UNITS (60.1%) SINCE 12/19/25: $ 7.00
+45.44 UNITS, 53.2% (156-137-3) MLB | +125.82 UNITS, 60.1% (140-93-3) OVERALL | 5.2% ROI MLB | 18.8% ROI OVERALL— Razor heads to the MLB board with a 3★ release. This selection is included with Razor’s Long Term and Seasonal Sports Passes. This is where the numbers line up.
Pavlos Laguretos
Event: (225209) Turkey at (225210) Kosovo
Sport/League: SOC (See all free Soccer picks)
Date/Time: March 31, 2026 2:45 PM EDT
Free All Soccer Pick Today: Kosovo to Qualify (+210)
Kosovo vs Turkey
World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET
Play: Kosovo to Qualify
Odds at Time of Release: +210
Line Parameter: Line good to +190
Kosovo are +210 to qualify, Turkey are -265 and I find no value there. In fact, I might take a piece of Kosovo to qualify at +206. AS for regulation, Kosovo are +315 underdogs at home, the Draw is at +260 and Turkey are -115 favourites on the road, with the Spread at 0.5 and the Total at 2.5.
Kosovo are underestimated by the books and let me tell ya, this is a very dangerous team, they have pretty decent units and cohesion as a team. This will not be an easy match for Turkey, unless there's an early red card for Kosovo or some game-changing event like that.
Kosovo are riding on a 6-match unbeaten streak (W4 D2 L0) and have only lost to Switzerland and Romania in L/15 competitive matches (W10 D2 L3), with 2 of those 3 losses coming on the road.
Turkey had a seemingly easy night vs Romania, won by a slim 1-0, didn't open up and didn't risk too much, they recorded just 2 shots on target, and allowed just 6 shots with zero on target. I've been saying this for quite a while, Turkey's defense is a double-edged sword, they can either have the perfect game and easily keep a clean sheet, or fall apart entirely, with no in-between.
Kosovo is a team that I personally can't get right. And I sure as hell can't get them right lately, because this coach that took over 20 matches ago, has used EIGHT different formations, so it's really anybody's guess as to which one he will pick for this game. I'm not going to speculate, but it's really hard to cap a team that doesn't have some baseline.
For what it's worth, Kosovo are on the brink of their first ever World Cup since being recognized as a nation and since their national team played their first competitive match in 2017. There's a certain pride and motivation for teams in such a position, they are playing at home and I wouldn't be surprised if Kosovo were 5th first-timers in the 2026 World Cup after Cape Verde, Curacao, Uzbekistan and Jordan.
+210 on Kosovo to qualify, but by the same token it's hard to go against this Turkey. Proceed with caution, I'm just getting a big number for another reason, because 3 of 4 Qualifiers have the AWAY side as HUGE favourites, and I think that at least one of those teams will stumble. Maybe it's Turkey.
The Play is Kosovo to Qualify (+210), line good to +190
Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago
Pavlos Laguretos
Event: (225217) Bolivia at (225218) Iraq
Sport/League: SOC (See all free Soccer picks)
Date/Time: March 31, 2026 11:00 PM EDT
Free All Soccer Pick Today: Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra Time (+440)
Iraq vs Bolivia
World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 11pm ET
Play: Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra Time
Odds at Time of Release: +440 FanDuel
Line Parameter: Line good to +250, if line not available, take Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer up to +250
Pretty balanced odds here, Iraq are -117 to Qualify, Bolivia are -107, as for regulation, Iraq are +150 favourites, the Draw at +220 and Bolivia +190 underdogs here, with the Spread at PK, or 0.25, depending where you look, and the total at 2.25 goals.
Iraq will be looking to make their second World Cup in their history, and for the first time since 1986, while Bolivia will be looking to return to the World Cup after 1994, and for the 4th time. So both teams are more than hungry for a ticket here.
This match is played in Mexico, so no home advantage for either side, maybe a bit for Bolivia, who are more likely to have fans there instead of Iraqis, with all that's going on in the Middle East. In fact, the team had to take a private jet out of Iraq, and the situation was up in the air until a few days ago.
Skipping sides and totals, this is a very tough game for me to pick a side or a total. Going with a player prop here, this is a game that I can't read too well, but I saw a pretty big price (and a bookie mistake) and the stats are solid.
Bolivia's Miguelito (or Miguel Terceros) scored in their last match vs Suriname, and he was by far their best scorer in the South American Qualifiers, with 7 goals in 13 matches, and actually finished 2nd in the scoring table behind only Lionel Messi.
Now here's the weird part on FanDuel. He is +410 to score anytime, which means that this bet stands for 90 minutes only. But he is +440 to score anytime INCLUDING EXTRA TIME, a price better by 30 cents and we also get 30 more minutes of extra time. Not sure what's going on with the odds there, but we ride.
Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra time is +440 at FanDuel. Can't find it? Pivot to Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer (+410 FD), I'd bet this to +250
The Play is Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra Time (+440 FanDuel), line good to +250. If line not available, take Miguel Terceros Anytime Goalscorer up to +250
Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago
Pavlos Laguretos
Event: (225213) Poland at (225214) Sweden
Sport/League: SOC (See all free Soccer picks)
Date/Time: March 31, 2026 2:45 PM EDT
Free All Soccer Pick Today: REGULATION Both Teams to Score (-105)
Sweden vs Poland
World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET
Play: Both Teams to Score
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Line good to -115
Sweden are -195 to Qualify, Poland are +156 to qualify. In regulation, Sweden are -105 favourites at home, the Draw is at +240 and Poland are +285 underdogs, with the Spread at 0.5 and the Total at 2.25
Sweden managed to bounce back to winning ways after a pretty bad qualifying round, they beat Ukraine by 3-1 on the road and are now playing this huge match at home. Their defense is struggling, keeping zero clean sheets in L/7, and their offense didn't score in 3 of 7, but since they changed their coach, they have scored in all 3 and are 3-0 to the Both Teams to Score. You might remember Mr Graham Potter from his short (and unsuccessful) stint at Chelsea, or further back when he coached a very potent Brighton side for many years. His teams usually create a ton of xG but are leaky at the back, so I do expect them to score against Poland here, but they might need to score twice in order to win this.
Poland are playing pretty decent soccer since they changed their coach, as he resolved some internal issues that have come up between star striker Lewandowski and the previous coach. Since then, Poland are 5-1 to the Both Teams to Score, with the only exception of a match against lowly Lithuania. Very much potential up front, but a defense that concedes goals against pretty much everyone, they even conceded two goals vs lowly Malta on the road.
These two last met in the exact same stage of the qualifiers of the previous World Cup, where Poland won by 2-0 at home and booked their ticket to Qatar. So the revenge game narrative is in effect here as well. This is a strange match, but I do think that Both Teams to Score is the play here.
The Play is Both Teams to Score (-105), line good to -115
Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago
Oskeim Sports
Event: (891) Oklahoma at (892) Colorado: Spread
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: April 1, 2026 8:00 PM EDT
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Oklahoma -6.5 (-110)
Oklahoma (19-5) and Colorado (17-15) face off in the College Basketball Crown quarterfinals on Wednesday in Las Vegas, Nevada. Colorado arrives off back-to-back losses to Arizona (89-79) and Oklahoma State (92-83), with both games going over the posted totals of 156.5 and 164.5 points, respectively. Oklahoma enters off seven consecutive ATS wins, including covering against the Razorbacks (82-79) as 6.5-point underdogs in the SEC tournament. Since 2016, well-rested college basketball teams coming off three or more consecutive overs like Colorado are just 132-176-3 ATS (42.9%) versus opponents arriving off a neutral-site contest. This situation has been 72-103 ATS (41.1%) since the beginning of the 2021-22 season. Similarly, college basketball teams coming off an over are 162-208-2 ATS (43.8%) when playing with ten or more days of rest, provided one additional parameter is satisfied, including 56-109 ATS (33.9%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, falling short of market expectations by an average margin of 2.7 points per game. Finally, Oklahoma falls into a profitable 69-42 ATS (62.2%) system of mine that dates to 2017-18 and invests on certain college basketball teams coming off a game in which they attempted 65 or more field goals from Game 34 forward. This situation has been 55-27 ATS (67.1%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. Lay the points with the Oklahoma Sooners as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, April 1.
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