Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

The Under 8.5 fits because both teams walk into a matchup built around pitching strength and two offenses that haven’t shown much life, especially in this ballpark. Jose Soriano has traveled well with a 3.11 ERA in 11 road starts, and he’s backed by an Angels bullpen that’s been excellent lately with a 2.21 ERA over its last ten games. Carson Whisenhunt has only two starts under his belt, but he’s handled himself well with a 3.38 ERA, and he draws an Angels lineup that has averaged just 2.2 runs per nine against lefties over its last ten. San Francisco’s bullpen has been solid too at 3.68 over its last ten. Oracle Park has also been a steady Under venue, with eleven of the last eighteen home games failing to reach more than seven runs and those contests averaging just 7.61. With both offenses limited, both pens in form, and two starters positioned to control the game, this one lines up cleanly for another low‑scoring night by the Bay.

This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER between the Mariners/Rangers.

Texas has taken the first two games of this three-game divisional series at home against the Mariners, and each of those games blew past the posted total.

With Logan Gilbert (8-6, 3.38 ERA) getting the starting call for the Mariners, and Jacob deGrom (7-6, 3.76 ERA) countering for the home side, I believe that runs will be at a premium in the finale.

Gilbert enters with a superb 0.98 WHIP, while deGrom has a 1.05 WHIP and he's 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA at home as well.

I'm expecting a bit of a "duel" here on Sunday afternoon in Texas; consider the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez owns a 2.65 ERA overall with 10.2 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings and has been significantly better at home, posting a 1.03 ERA with just two home runs allowed across 78 1/3 innings compared to a 4.95 ERA with 10 home runs allowed across 54 1/3 innings on the road. Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren owns a 4.00 ERA with 8.8 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He has allowed only 1.1 home runs per nine innings on the road and has pitched well and also supported by a bullpen that leads the league in ERA at 3.04. Lastly the Yankees lineup is averaging just 3.3 runs per game offensively over its past 29 games and I think the UNDER is the best play here on Sunday night.

Pitch to Kickoff Special
Get every Oskeim Sports release through College Football Opening Weekend—including Opening Weekend CFB plays—for just $299 (regularly $598). Offer expires July 31.

The Pirates are in a solid position with Braxton Ashcraft taking the mound against veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon. While Taillon brings experience and a steady presence, Pittsburgh’s lineup has enough familiarity and contact ability to avoid being overwhelmed by his pitch mix.

Jameson Taillon’s Metrics

• 5.38 ERA, 5.42 xERA, and 6.40 FIP

• 3.13 BB/9 and 8.1% BB%

• 2.75 HR/9 and 20.4% HR/FB ratio

Taillon’s ERA is elevated despite having an unsustainable .249 BABIP. Ashcraft offers intriguing upside with his raw stuff and the ability to generate swings and misses when he is locating effectively. Ashcraft toes the rubber with a 3.95 ERA, 3.54 xERA, 3.54 FIP, and a 3.25 xFIP, together with an elite 10.06 K/9 rate and a 27.0% K%. Technically speaking, MLB road underdogs coming off two or more consecutive wins are 1975-2872 (40.7%; -3.7% ROI), including 1811-2703 (40.1%; -5% ROI) in the last game of a series. Pittsburgh enters off an 11-0 loss to the Cubs on Saturday, which is significant because MLB favorites coming off a shutout loss are 783-540 (59.2%; +1% ROI), while home favorites looking to avoid a series sweep are 945-625 (60.2%; +1.7% ROI). With the more established starting pitcher and a lineup capable of applying early pressure, the Pirates offer value in this matchup. Take the Pittsburgh Pirates as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, July 26.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 194-144 | +66 Units
-> Profitable 73-54 (58%) Long-Term Run
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
-> Epic 127-83 (61%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles

The Mets qualify as the only 8-or-more Luck Gap play on Sunday’s card. TeamRankings rates Los Angeles at +0.30 and New York at -10.31, producing a massive 10.61-game gap. Under the system, the substantially unluckier team is the wager, making New York the clear contrarian value side.

Emmet Sheehan is difficult to justify at this price. The Dodgers right-hander is 4-7 with a 5.13 ERA, and Los Angeles has lost seven of his last nine starts. He was hammered for six earned runs, eight hits and two home runs in 5⅓ innings against Philadelphia his last time out. Sheehan has surrendered 17 home runs in 87⅔ innings, with a concerning 10.3% barrel rate, creating legitimate damage potential for a Mets lineup containing Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Marcus Semien and Francisco Alvarez.

Sheehan’s underlying metrics are better than his ERA, but not dominant enough to justify laying approximately -156 on the road. FanGraphs lists him with a 4.50 FIP, while Statcast has allowed a .338 wOBA and an 89.4 mph average exit velocity. He has completed six innings only once in his last nine starts, which increases the likelihood that the Mets get multiple looks at the Los Angeles bullpen.

Freddy Peralta’s surface form is admittedly poor, but his advanced indicators make him a viable positive-regression candidate. Despite a 5.01 ERA, Peralta owns a 3.85 FIP and has allowed a .303 expected wOBA, compared with his actual .342 wOBA. His 87.8 mph average exit velocity and 5.4% barrel rate are both better than Sheehan’s corresponding contact numbers. That substantial ERA-to-FIP and wOBA-to-xwOBA separation indicates Peralta has pitched better than his results suggest.

This is also a classic getaway-game situational spot. The Dodgers are completing a nine-game road trip, have already secured the series and enter on a four-game winning streak. New York has lost the first two games by competitive 4-2 and 4-3 scores, including Saturday’s game in which the Mets put 10 runners on base but went only 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position. A modest improvement in situational hitting could reverse the result against the weakest Dodgers starter used in the series.

Juan Soto’s absence is a significant negative, and Peralta cannot be trusted blindly after allowing seven runs in Milwaukee. However, those concerns are fully reflected in a generous home-underdog price. The pitching matchup is much closer than the respective team records suggest, Peralta owns the stronger underlying contact profile, and the 10.61 Luck Gap supplies the primary systematic edge.

The value is NEW YORK METS.

Slump long gone for Grandmaster Handicapper Joe Duffy. Another winner yesterday, 4-1 last 5. Joe Duffy is 45-22 in MLB sides since April 6 +25.09 units at one-unit per bet. 27-10 sides since May 25, up 61.51 units based on 4-units Wise Guy, 3 Major!

True, select moneyline bets even more insane, in part because I do not force bets for instant gratification. Today’s strongest MLB bet is a total and has it all super system with a common winning rule of thumb, and tons of intel as my top organic influencer agrees with my advanced analytics.