Ricky Tran
Event: (961) Seattle Mariners at (962) Houston Astros: Total
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 2:10 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Total Over 9.0 (-110) Luis Castillo (RHP), Mike Burrows (RHP) Must Start
Ricky's play on Over.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Over is 8-4 in Houston's last 12 games against Seattle.
- The over is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 games against an opponent in the American League West Division.
- The total has gone over in 4 of Houston's last 7 home games.
Verdict: We should see plenty of Points in this game.
Released/revised 35 minute(s) ago
Jimmy Adams
Event: (953) Washington Nationals at (954) Cincinnati Reds: F5 Spread
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 12:40 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: F5 Cincinnati Reds -0.5 (-115) Action
Chase Burns has established himself as an emerging superstar in this league and he’ll showcase his talents again on Thursday as the Reds look to get back on track after a tough extra innings defeat yesterday. Burns has allowed a total of just 1 run over his past 2 outings and 2 runs or fewer in 7 of his past 8 starts this season. We know how hitter friendly Great American Ballpark is, and Cincy has more pop throughout their lineup than most people realize. Foster Griffin’s has some concerning metrics in his profile, such as a barrel rate of 11.5%. He’s a slow velo pitcher who the Reds can get to. We’ll take the bullpens out of the equation and play the Reds on the F5 RL.
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Released/revised 38 minute(s) ago
Tokyo Brandon
Event: (953) Washington Nationals at (954) Cincinnati Reds: Moneyline
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 12:40 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Washington Nationals 136 Action
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=======
WSN @ CIN
Market used: WSN +162 / CIN -196, full-game total 8.0. Probable starters: Foster Griffin vs. Chase Burns. Game time: 12:40 PM ET, Great American Ball Park, expected temperature around 58–59°F with 16 mph wind.
Projected Score
Team | Projected Runs | Projected Hits | Projected Errors |
|---|---|---|---|
WSN | 4.6 | 8.2 | 0.7 |
CIN | 4.2 | 7.5 | 0.3 |
Total | 8.8 | 15.7 | 1.0 |
WSN has the stronger offensive profile. WSN is scoring 5.4 runs/game, ranking 2nd in MLB, with a .325 OBP and .411 SLG. CIN is scoring 4.0 runs/game, ranking 26th, with a .220 AVG, .305 OBP, and .379 SLG. Recent form also favors WSN: WSN has a .799 OPS and 52 runs over the last 10 games, while CIN has a .677 OPS and 34 runs over the last 10 games.
Burns is a major suppressor, but not a complete shutdown spot. His 2026 line is 4-1, 2.11 ERA, 47.0 IP, 48 K, 1.04 WHIP, and his last seven games show 42.0 IP, 2.36 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. The risk is the matchup shape: WSN’s lineup is lefty-heavy at the impact spots, and Burns’ home split has been much softer versus left-handed bats than right-handed bats.
Griffin has matched Burns in run prevention, with 4-1, 2.12 ERA, 46.2 IP, 42 K, 1.03 WHIP. His last seven games show 41.2 IP, 1.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, but the model does not fully buy the ERA as the true baseline because CIN’s park and right-handed lineup construction add power risk.
Batter-vs-pitcher history is thin. No active hitter on either projected lineup has a meaningful 20-AB sample in this matchup. Burns has faced some WSN bats: CJ Abrams is 1-for-3 with a double and 1.000 OPS, while James Wood and Daylen Lile are each 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts. Griffin has no meaningful current CIN hitter sample large enough to move the model.
Great American Ball Park pushes power upward. Since 2025, the park has graded as one of MLB’s most favorable home-run environments, with a home-run park factor around 118–119, third-highest range in MLB. That offsets part of the two-starter quality and keeps the full-game total above the market number.
Bullpen edge goes to WSN by recent condition, even though neither relief group is clean. CIN’s relief group has been unstable, with recent bottom-tier indicators in ERA, FIP, xERA, WHIP, walk rate, and home-run rate, and WSN hit six homers in the prior game against CIN pitching. WSN’s bullpen season profile still carries risk, especially with a poor save rate and inherited-runner damage, so the edge is not large.
Tokyo’s Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Team | Rank 1-30 | OPS |
|---|---|---|
WSN | 6 | .912 |
CIN | 28 | .641 |
Rankings — 1 Best, 30 Worst
Category | WSN | CIN |
|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher ERA + WHIP rank, 14+ IP | Griffin: 6 | Burns: 5 |
Bullpen last 10 days ERA + WHIP rank | 19 | 28 |
Lineup last 10 days runs scored + wOBA rank | 5 | 24 |
Released/revised 44 minute(s) ago
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Sniper Wes
Event: (39) Vegas Golden Knights at (40) Anaheim Ducks: Total
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 9:30 PM EDT
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: Total Over 6.0 (-120)
Take #39 Ducks vs Golden Knights Over 6
These teams have alternated wins and losses, and each has won a game on the other's home ice, but we like the Ducks here to send this to a game 7. Anaheim was 28-14-4 at home this season, and they really fly around the ice at home. Joel Quenneville has plenty of elimination game experience, coming from the 3-time champion Blackhawks, and he will have his team ready to go here. Every single game at T-Mobile has gone under, but the two games at the Honda Center both went over, as the Ducks fly around the ice and skate very fast there. Like the over here tonight.
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Sniper Wes $7 Thursday 4% NHL Slap Shot!!The ice is heating up tonight as Sniper Wes unleashes a HUGE 4% NHL release ready to blast the sportsbooks!4% Rated PlayPremium Thursday Night Hockey ActionOne of Wes’ strongest NHL positions on the boardHigh-value betting opportunity locked in!The puck is about to drop and Sniper Wes is looking to cash an ...
Sniper Wes
Event: (37) Montreal Canadiens at (38) Buffalo Sabres: Moneyline
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 7:00 PM EDT
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: Buffalo Sabres -120
Take #38 Sabres Over Canadiens
This series heads back to Buffalo tied 2-2, and the Sabres' home crowd will be electric as they have a chance to move on to the Eastern Conference Final, which nobody had pinned them for at the start of the season. Buffalo was 28-12-6 this season at home, but Montreal was 28-10-9 on the road. Remember, It was Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's first game back after he had been benched in favor of Alex Lyon when he gave up four goals on 20 shots in Game 2 of the first-round series versus the Boston Bruins, and he turned aside 28 shots in his return. If the Sabres want to make their fans happy, they need to clamp down on Alex Newhook. He has five goals in his last three games. We like the Sabres here with Luukkonen, as the home crowd will be behind them, and this Buffalo team thrives on that.
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Cajun Sports
Event: (971) Philadelphia Phillies at (972) Boston Red Sox: Moneyline
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 6:45 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Philadelphia Phillies -114 Jesus Luzardo (LHP), Ranger Suarez (LHP) Must Start
Sports Memo has Top Plays from the nation’s top handicappers for ONLY $7 a play every day! Make sure to take advantage of this unbelievable price for winning selections! Cajun Sports has been on a red-hot run-in MLB this season posting a documented record of 24-6 SU (80%)(+$13,902) in their last 30 MLB Top Plays since April 10th! For the Thursday complimentary selection, we are in Boston where the Red Sox and the Phillies face off in Game Three of their series. Tonight, we are going to back the Phillies. The pitching matchup looks like it would favor the Red Sox but the overall all picture favors the Phillies. It is a strong situation for the Phillies on several fronts including our power ratings matrix numbers and strong power systems that support this Phillies in this situation. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.1 runs in favor of the Phillies. The SIM Matrix has the Phillies with a 68.9 percent advantage against the Red Sox on Thursday night in Boston. Play ON MLB -120 or more favorites when they used five or more pitchers in a game yesterday, 5369-3382 SU (61%)(+$3,717). Play AGAINST MLB underdogs when they scored one or fewer runs for their starter in his last start, 1767-1133 SU (61%)(+$1,897). The Phillies get the call, and we will lay the short price with the Phillies in Boston on Thursday. PLAY: 1% PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-)
Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago
Rob Vinciletti
Event: (201877) Oviedo at (201878) Real Madrid: Spread
Sport/League: SLL (See all free Spain La Liga picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 3:30 PM EDT
Free Spain La Liga Pick Today: Real Madrid -1.75 (102)
Thursday Card has a TOP NHL PLAY. Soccer comp below
The Soccer comp play for Thursday is on Real Madrid on the Asian Handicap at -1.5 goals at 3:30 eastern. Madrid should be motivated here after getting blanked by La Liga Champs Barcelona . The Good news is they have dominated the series with Ovedo. In their last encounter it was a 3-0 clinic by Real Madrid. Oviedo who made it to the top flight last year will now be relegated once again after this season. Madrid has had a tumultuous season and while it did not go nearly as well as they wanted, they likely bag a multiple goal win here against an inferior opponent. Play on Real Madrid -1.5 goals. GL Rob V-
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Ben Burns
Event: (963) Kansas City Royals at (964) Chicago White Sox: Total
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 7:40 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Total Over 8.0 (-115) Kris Bubic (LHP), Anthony Kay (LHP) Must Start
Thursday's White Sox/Royals game should see plenty of scoring. Kay has a poor 4.89 ERA and 1.57 WHIP the season. When pitching during the evening, he has a 5.89 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Those numbers are in line with his career (5.39 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) numbers. Bubic's numbers are quite a lot better than Kay's but they're still not amazing. Notably, Bubic walked four in five innings last game and he's now issued 10 free passes over his past three starts. He's also 0-2 for his career when facing the Sox on the road. Bubic is backed by a bad KC bullpen. Entering Wednesday, Royal relievers had a 4.74 ERA (fifth worst in the majors) and 1.45 WHIP. Chicago's bullpen stats aren't much better. Entering Wednesday, White Sox relievers had a 4.55 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair. *good at 9 or better
Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago
Oskeim Sports
Event: (37) Montreal Canadiens at (38) Buffalo Sabres: Moneyline
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 7:00 PM EDT
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: Montreal Canadiens 102
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Zach Benson broke a tie with a third-period power-play goal as the Sabres beat Montreal 3-2 on Tuesday night in Game 4, evening the Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Canadiens are primed to bounce back in Game 5 as NHL playoff teams coming off an upset loss as home favorites are 276-217 (56%; +5.1% ROI), including 109-71 (60.6%; +9% ROI) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Montreal finds support in a similar 207-157 (56.9%; +2.3% ROI) system dating to 2007 that invests against certain postseason teams coming off a game as road underdogs with fewer than two days of rest. Let’s also note that NHL playoff division road underdogs coming off a loss are 57-43 (57%; +37.1% ROI) versus opponents entering off a win, including 28-16 SU (63.6%; +55.9% ROI) and 34-10 PL (77.3%; +17.4% ROI) since 2019. Since 2015, .500 or greater NHL road teams are 71-54 (56.8%; +30.8% ROI) in Game 5 of a playoff series, including 47-33 (58.8%; +30.6% ROI) since 2019. Finally, the Canadiens fall into a very good 244-142 (63.2%; +15.3% ROI) statistical profile indicator of mine that dates to 2003 and involves shots on goal in the team's previous two playoff games. This situation has been 117-63 (65%; +15.7% ROI) since 2016. Take the Montreal Canadiens as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, May 14.
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Released/revised 19 hour(s) ago
Steve Merril 
Sean Higgs 
Mike Lundin 
Billy Coleman 
David Delano 
Mark Zinno 
Razor Ray Monohan 
Rocky Atkinson 
Gianni the Greek 