Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Chris Sale is on the mound in the night game of this double header between the Mets and the Braves. He has been excellent for the Braves and should get an early lead to lead his team to another win as he limits runs and eats innings. Scott has been an unproven arm for the Mets, and gives up more contact and walks over Sale. Also, the Braves bullpen is more experienced in a spot like this over a struggling Mets lineup.

Bet: take Atlanta on the moneyline.

Our best advanced computer model has Chicago winning 55 percent of simulations. A +133 moneyline carries a break-even probability of only 42.92 percent, creating a massive 12.08-percentage-point cushion. The model’s 55-percent projection translates to fair odds of approximately -122, not +133, and produces an estimated 28.15-percent return per unit risked at the quoted price.

Yes, Cam Schlittler is having an outstanding season, but the marketplace is charging a premium for his 2.07 ERA and dominant recent outing. Chicago counters with Davis Martin, whose overall numbers undersell how well he has pitched at home: 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and only one home run allowed over 50 innings. Martin has been one of Chicago’s most valuable starters this season and entered July among the American League leaders in pitching WAR. (CBS Sports)

The White Sox are also a legitimate home team, not a bottom-feeder merely catching an inflated price. They are 32-21 at home, average more runs per game than New York and remain in first place in the AL Central. Tuesday’s 3-2 Yankees victory was hardly domination: Chicago brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth after mounting a late rally. (South Side Sox)

New York’s lineup is also operating without several major pieces. Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton are all sidelined, leaving the Yankees without much of their established middle-order power. Bellinger’s hamstring injury was expected to cost him four to six weeks, while Judge remained on the 60-day injured list. (Pinstripe Alley)

Chicago does not have to be the better team over 162 games. It only needs to win this matchup more than 42.92 percentof the time. Our simulations put that probability at 55 percent, Martin’s home performance gives the White Sox a credible pitching path, and the depleted Yankees lineup narrows the overall talent gap.

This is a classic price-driven wager: WHITE SOX 

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967 New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

We used the Yankees yesterday with great success as they continue to dominate the AL Central. They are now 35-23 on the season on the road. They are throwing their ace Cam Schlittler who has been terrific all season. While two of their best relievers likely out, we know this starter will go deep.

The White Sox peaked early and like the rest of this division they have been treading water. Davis Martin is a quality start for the Sox, but he's the lesser starter in this one.

PLAY NY YANKEES

We are releasing a 5% play on Wednesday. Now on a 16-5 run with 4 & 5% releases. Now 57-29 over the past six weeks in Major League Baseball. Save some money and lock yourself in with an extended service package.

This is a FREE PLAY on the White Sox.

Despite dropping the first two games of this four-game series, I think Chicago is worth a "second look" on Wednesday, despite facing Cam Schlittler.

Davis Martin at home at this price for the extra 1.5 runs is worth a "second look" in my opinion.

Consider CHICAGO on the reasonable RUNLINE option on Wednesday night.

Good luck, NP