Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Ricky's play on TOR.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Tampa Bay are 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road.

- Tampa Bay are 3-5 in their last 8 games.

- Shane Bieber has won 2 of his last 2 starts for the Blue Jays.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

Chris Sale has dominated San Diego when he has pitched against them. Sale has never lost to them going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Griffin Canning can't get out of his own way and he is scheduled to start for the Padres. Canning 1-8 on the season with a horrendous 6.67 ERA. Not always a fan of the run line with the home team, but today looks a good spot in this afternoon tilt.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): This looks like a good spot to back an Arizona team playing its best baseball of the season. The Diamondbacks have won eight of their last 10 games, while St. Louis dropped four straight before narrowly beating the Angels 1-0 last night.

That victory completed a six-game Cardinals road trip, creating a potentially difficult travel and adjustment spot as they return home for this makeup game.

Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy (4-7, 2.92 ERA) has pitched well, but St. Louis has still lost seven of his last 10 starts. Arizona counters with right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 4.58 ERA), who owns a 2.67 ERA while leading the Diamondbacks to four wins across his last five starts.

Pfaadt recently faced St. Louis on July 18, allowing only two runs without issuing a walk over 5 1/3 innings in Arizona’s 5-3 victory

The Bet: Diamondbacks (3%). 

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Atlanta has a significant edge in the pitching matchup with Chris Sale taking the mound against Griffin Canning. Sale continues to miss bats at an elite rate (10.54 K/9), and his ability to command both sides of the plate makes him one of the toughest left-handers in baseball to square up (2.14 BB/9). San Diego's lineup features plenty of talent, but it has been far less consistent against high-end strikeout pitchers who can neutralize the middle of the order. Canning has been serviceable this season, yet he has shown a tendency to allow hard contact and lacks command and control, as evidenced by his 4.85 BB/9 rate. The Braves possess enough power throughout the lineup to capitalize on any mistakes, and their offense is always capable of producing multiple runs in a single inning. Atlanta also holds the advantage in the late innings with a dependable bullpen that has consistently protected leads when given the opportunity.

Atlanta’s Bullpen Metrics

• 3.24 ERA (3rd)

• 3.59 xERA (5th)

• 3.97 xFIP (6th)

• 4.4 WAR (3rd)

From a technical standpoint, the Padres fall into very negative 3046-5372 (36.2%; -3.8% ROI), 2591-4609 (36%; -4.2% ROI), and 932-2260 (29.2%; -10.2% ROI) systems of mine, which date to 2002 and invest against certain moderate-to-large road underdogs. The latter situation has lost by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game since 2003. The Braves are 131-52 (71.6%; +1% ROI) and 102-81 RL (55.7%; +1% ROI) as favorites of greater than -210 and 180-98 (64.7%; +1.4% ROI) as home favorites of -140 or greater following a game in which they scored in more than two innings.

Finally, MLB favorites of greater than -200 in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2760-1057 (72.3%; +2% ROI) and 2048-1562 (56.7%; +2.4% ROI), including 1628-583 (73.6%; +3.1% ROI) and 1282-930 RL (58%; +2.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of 2.3 runs per game. With the superior ace on the mound, a lineup built to pressure opposing pitchers, and an overall edge in run prevention, the Braves are well-positioned to come away with the victory. Take the Atlanta Braves as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Thursday, July 23.

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Projected score: Detroit 4.9, Kansas City 3.1
Projected first five: Detroit 2.8, Kansas City 1.3

The batting orders remain projected. Bobby Witt Jr. is unavailable with a back injury, while Jac Caglianone is excluded because of the unresolved shoulder issue. Tyler Tolbert projects at shortstop. The current matchup card lists Troy Melton at 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP against Randy Dobnak at 1.93 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

Kansas City has produced 3.3 runs per game with a .692 OPS over its most recent ten games. Its recent performance against right-handed pitching produced a .704 OPS. July as a whole has been better than the season baseline, but the lineup downgrade from Witt’s absence offsets most of that improvement.

Detroit scoring calculation:

Starting-pitcher analysis

Dobnak’s 1.93 ERA is not treated as his true run-prevention level. His 14 innings include eight walks against seven strikeouts, a 1.50 WHIP and a fielding-independent estimate near 5.7. His 2026 minor-league performance—4.35 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 80⅔ innings—also supports substantial regression.

Melton has allowed 11 earned runs, 33 hits and 15 walks in 55 innings. His July line is approximately 17⅓ innings, one earned run and 25 strikeouts. A fielding-independent estimate near 3.9 prevents the projection from simply extending the 1.80 ERA, but his command, contact suppression and six-inning workload remain significantly better than Dobnak’s.

Starter

IP

ER

H

K

BB

Randy Dobnak, KCR

4 1/3

2.8

5.3

2.3

2.6

Troy Melton, DET

6

1.3

4.3

5.8

1.7

Kansas City received seven innings from Seth Lugo Wednesday, leaving the bullpen comparatively rested. Daniel Lynch IV and Steven Cruz handled the final two innings.

Detroit’s bullpen covered 3⅔ innings Wednesday, with Drew Sommers, Drew Anderson, Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen all appearing. Tuesday’s early starter exit created another heavy bullpen game, although position players absorbed part of the blowout workload. Finnegan and Jansen receive reduced availability/effectiveness weighting.

Bullpen

Expected IP

Expected ER

Workload adjustment

KCR

4.0

2.1

Rested, but poor season-level run prevention

DET

3.0

1.8

Recent high-leverage usage adds 0.28 KCR runs

Rank 1 represents best and rank 30 represents worst.

Team

Starting pitcher ERA+WHIP rank

Bullpen last 10 days ERA / WHIP

Bullpen rank

Lineup last 10 days runs / wOBA

Lineup rank

DET

Melton: 2

4.12 / 1.31

16

43 / .311

14

KCR

Dobnak: 10

5.34 / 1.50

27

33 / .303

22