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Tokyo Brandon is+81.43 units in 2026 
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After exploding yesterday I expect the Padres to cool off. Elder is a good pitcher and I do not think he gives 3 here.

First-five projection

Market

Projection

Padres F5 runs

1.8

Braves F5 runs

2.7

Projected F5 score

Braves 3, Padres 2

Starting-pitcher matchup

JP Sears — Padres

First-five projection

Number

Innings pitched

4⅔

Hits allowed

5–6

Runs allowed

3

Strikeouts

4

Walks

2

Home runs allowed

1

Pitches

84–90

Sears is 2–2 with a 5.03 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 17 strikeouts and eight walks in 19⅔ innings. That is a small four-start sample, but his 1.83 home runs allowed per nine innings is concerning against an Atlanta lineup that has suddenly rediscovered its power.

There are positive recent signs. Sears has a 2.89 ERA with eight strikeouts across 9⅓ innings in his two July starts. More importantly, he already faced Atlanta on June 24 and held the Braves scoreless through five innings before Joey Bart hit a two-run homer in the sixth. He finished that outing with five strikeouts, two walks and two runs allowed over 5⅔ innings.

The concern is that Atlanta’s lineup is in a much different place now. The Braves scored 29 runs and hit nine home runs in their first three games following the All-Star break, including 15 runs Friday and eight Sunday. They have also scored at least five runs in nine consecutive home games.

Bryce Elder — Braves

First-five projection

Number

Innings pitched

5⅓

Hits allowed

4–5

Runs allowed

2

Strikeouts

4

Walks

1–2

Home runs allowed

0–1

Pitches

82–88

Elder is 5–6 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 86 strikeouts over 102⅔ innings. He has generally supplied Atlanta with more length than Sears, averaging approximately 5.7 innings per start.

His overall recent results are ugly: Elder has an 8.47 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over his last seven starts, allowing 49 hits in 34 innings. His final three starts before the break lasted only four, four and six innings, with 16 earned runs allowed.

The counterpoint is a meaningful home split. Elder is 3–2 with a 3.34 ERA and 45 strikeouts in ten home starts, which is much closer to the pitcher Atlanta needs Monday.

Padres offense against Elder

Recent form

San Diego is 5–5 over its last ten games, averaging 5.7 runs with a .263 average, .345 on-base percentage, .418 slugging percentage and .763 OPS. Those numbers are heavily influenced by Sunday’s extraordinary 19–2 win over Kansas City.

The Padres hit five homers Sunday, with Jackson Merrill and Ty France each going deep twice and Fernando Tatis Jr. adding another. That is obviously encouraging, but six of the 19 runs came against a position player pitching in the ninth inning, so the final score slightly overstates the quality of the offensive breakout.

What favors Elder

Elder’s best route is getting early-count ground balls. San Diego has enough bat-to-ball ability to pressure him, but its season-long .376 slugging percentage against righties is not especially imposing. A double-play ball with France, Machado or Andújar at the plate could decide whether Elder allows one run or three.

Betting approach

Bet

Playable price/line

Padres F5 team total under 2.5

-165 or better

Ricky's play on PHI.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Philadelphia are 9-2 in its last 11 games against an opponent in the National League West Division.

- LA Dodgers are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.

- LA Dodgers ared 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the National League.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

The A’s have now lost 11 of their past 12 games after suffering yet another defeat on Sunday, and now they travel to the desert to take on an Arizona squad that is running hot. The Diamondbacks have won 6 of 7 and have the luxury of facing Jeffrey Springs, who has given up at least 6 runs in 4 of hits past 5 starts. Springs has been smashed for 38 runs in his past 7 starts alone, is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and ranks in the 1^st percentile in pitching run value overall. Take the Diamondbacks -1.

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FREE PICK | New York Liberty [ML] | Good until -175.

So far in 2026, New York has not been as good as many people anticipated. There's still plenty of time to improve the 13-12 record. But, winning today would go a long way. The Wings are on a pretty big hot streak of six wins in a row. But, I like NYL as the favorite to get back in the winners circle tonight. Go with New York.

Two of baseball's hottest teams square off Monday, but this matchup sets up as a pitching duel rather than an offensive showcase. The Orioles enter riding a seven-game winning streak, while the Red Sox have won 13 straight, with both clubs fueled by dominant pitching. Boston has held opponents to three runs or fewer in nine of its last 10 games, while Baltimore has done the same in seven consecutive contests. The Red Sox have also been the lowest-scoring team in the American League at home this season, making runs even harder to come by at Fenway. Boston hands the ball to Payton Tolle, who fired six scoreless innings against Baltimore on June 3 and has continued to pitch well. Shane Baz has also enjoyed success against the Red Sox, allowing three earned runs or fewer while pitching at least five innings in each of his last three starts versus Boston. With two red-hot teams leaning on their pitching staffs and plenty at stake, Under 8.5 runs is the best value on the board.