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App State has won each of the last 12 meetings in this Sun Belt series. The Mountaineers have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings, including a 41-20 road win at Georgia State last week. We've successfully played against the Panthers each of the last three weeks, and we're not getting off that train this week. It's been a rinse-and-repeat formula for Georgia State. We don't want to take anything away from what the Panthers have accomplished thus far, because clearing your projected season win total by the first week of October is still something to celebrate, no matter who you are. But with all due respect to Georgia State, wins over North Carolina A&T, Kennesaw State, Northern Illinois and Old Dominion aren't moving the needle for us. Those four teams have a combined record of 8-26 this season. Over the last three weeks against James Madison, Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina, the Panthers have fallen short of point spread expectations by an average of 14.2 points per game. Throw in a 14-point loss to UCF earlier this season, and the Panthers haven't come close to beating a half-decent team this year. The final score of last week's 31-20 loss to Coastal Carolina looks respectable, but that was a 31-6 game in the third quarter before the Chanticleers put things on cruise control for the final minutes. Georgia State's defense forced three turnovers but the Panthers' offense couldn't do anything with the extra possessions. Play App State

Based on some early-week content that we have consumed this week, there is likely going to be some back-and-forth action on this game. Those looking to back UConn will point to North Carolina's schedule and the presumed let-down spot after the Tar Heels lost back-to-back games against Syracuse and Miami (Fla) by a total of four points. Add those to weather-related losses to Notre Dame and Clemson, and North Carolina has been snakebitten for large stretches of the season. We're not ready to buy into that narrative just yet. There's about ten programs in the country where you can ignore "letdown spot" narratives (i.e. the military academies), and a Bill Belichick-coached team is probably one of them. You think the guy that has over 300 wins in the NFL is going to let his team have a let-down spot? Especially in the northeast where he's still got quite a following? Don't forget, the Tar Heels didn't make a bowl game last season, so simply reaching six wins and going to a bowl game is still a goal for this team. Realistically, how much can you downgrade North Carolina after these recent losses? They certainly stung, but the Tar Heels have covered the spread in four of the last five games. So you can't downgrade UNC from a power ratings perspective, because they've actually overperformed expectations. The team that fell short of expectations last week is UConn, who couldn't beat Air Force with an ex-linebacker playing quarterback that didn't complete a pass. The Huskies just played at altitude in the Mountain Time Zone and had to defend 74 Air Force rushing plays. We'll make the argument that UConn is the team on letdown alert this week, not North Carolina.
Play North Carolina

This is the first meeting between the Colts and Cowboys since Dallas earned a 54-19 home win as a double-digit favorite in December 2022. In last week's newsletter, we mentioned that Indianapolis was likely going to be a significant seller at the trade deadline and the Colts have not disappointed thus far. Long-tenured guard Quenton Nelson was sent to Seattle, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was shipped to San Francisco and more moves are likely on the way. Wide receiver Josh Downs has requested a trade and it sounds like several suitors have made offers for running back Jonathan Taylor. Heck, with the questionable QB situation around the league, a team like Baltimore or Minnesota might be half-tempted to inquire about Daniel Jones. Since returning home from London, the Colts have lost their last four contests by an average of 14.8 points per game. Things aren't looking much better on the Cowboys' side at the moment. Dallas is 1-3 straight-up and against the spread over the last four games, including two losses as a 7+ point favorite. The Cowboys jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week against Arizona and still held a 17-3 lead in the final minute of the third quarter before blowing the game in overtime. Since 2000, Dallas had been 69-0 when leading by 14+ points in the fourth quarter, but that run came to a close against the Cardinals. Defensive back Caleb Downs, safety PJ Locke, edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, cornerback Joey Porter, Jr. and tight end Jake Ferguson all suffered injuries in last week's loss to Arizona. Downs needs to clear concussion protocol, while Lawrence is expected to miss a few weeks with an ankle injury. Let's take the Cowboys' defense completely out of this equation, especially with the four injuries on defense that we just listed. The Cowboys' team total has opened at 29.5, which is a mark Dallas has cleared in five of its last seven games. The Colts' last four opponents have scored an average of 29.5 points against Indianapolis, and that list includes Minnesota and Tennessee who are bottom-6 in the NFL in points scored this season. Dallas' offense is significantly better than most of the offenses Indianapolis has seen over the last five weeks. Also, after what happened last week, you better believe Dallas is playing for 60 minutes this week, and we may see a late insurance score that we may not have seen in other contests. Play Cowboys (Team Total) Over

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