Tokyo Brandon
Event: (304123) Orix Buffaloes at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles: Moneyline
Sport/League: JNPB (See all free Japan NPB picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM EDT
Free Japan NPB Pick Today: Orix Buffaloes -130
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Orix ML
I make Orix the better side because the starter gap is real, Rakuten’s offense is ice cold, and Orix’s late bullpen is more trustworthy. But because Orix’s own offense has not exactly been a flamethrower recently, I don’t want to lay a big number.
Bet it at: about -135 or better.
Pass if: Orix drops below 1.70 / about -143.
1. Starter edge: clear Orix
Sean Hjelle has been excellent: 5 games, 1-1, 1.16 ERA, 31 IP, 21 H, 7 BB, 23 K. He has also already faced Rakuten once this season and went 6 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 ER in a 4-0 Orix loss. That is a legit quality-start profile, not just lucky ERA fluff.
José Ureña is more hittable: 6 games, 1-2, 4.06 ERA, 31 IP, 34 H, 13 BB, 22 K. His recent starts are also shaky: 6 IP/3 R, 5 IP/5 R, 4 IP/4 R.
Starter lean: Orix by a lot.
2. Recent form: Rakuten offense is the big red flag
Rakuten has lost 5 straight NPB games, and they have scored under 2.5 runs in each of those 5 games. Their last five scores: 0, 1, 2, 2, 2. That is ugly-ugly, not cute-ugly.
Orix has not been a monster offensively either — recent scores include 2, 0, 0, 4, 3 — but they are 3-2 over the last five and just beat Rakuten 2-0.
Recent form lean: Orix, mostly because Rakuten cannot score.
3. Batters / lineup matchup
Rakuten has a few dangerous bats, but the lineup is thin right now. Ryosuke Tatsumi is the clear table-setter at .294 AVG / .399 OBP, Hideto Asamura is still useful at .257 / .345 OBP, and Itsuki Murabayashi leads them with 17 RBI. But Luke Voit has been brutal at .136 AVG / .212 OBP, and several regulars are sitting in the low-.200s or below.
Orix’s lineup is better balanced: Ryoma Nishikawa is at .293, Haruto Watanabe is .295 / .382 OBP with speed, Ryo Ota is .271 / .353 OBP with 18 RBI, Tomoya Mori has 4 HR, and Yuma Mune has 5 HR. It is not a huge offense, but it has more paths to scratch out 3-4 runs.
Batting lean: Orix slightly-to-moderately.
4. Bullpen edge: small Orix lean
Orix’s late-game structure is strong. Andrés Machado has 12 saves and a 1.80 ERA, Ren Mukunoki has 10 holds and a 1.84 ERA, and Soichiro Yamazaki is at 3.00 ERA. Perdomo has been bad, but he does not need to be trusted in the highest leverage here.
Rakuten’s top arms are good too: Shoma Fujihira has 8 saves and a 0.64 ERA, Ren Kajiya is at 1.84, and Sung Chia-Hao is at 1.80. The issue is the depth: Nishigaki is at 5.93, Uchi is at 6.14, and Ureña is less likely than Hjelle to hand over a clean lead in the 7th.
Both pens should be rested enough because the previous matchup was May 12. Orix used Kuri 6.2, Yoshida 0.1, Mukunoki 1, Machado 1; Rakuten used Shoji 6, Nishigaki 1, Kajiya 1, Uchi 1.
Bullpen lean: Orix small.
Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago
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Tokyo Brandon
Event: (909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers: Spread
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 13, 2026 10:10 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115) Action
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SFG @ LAD — 5/13/2026
Current matchup: SFG 17-24, 7-12 away; LAD 24-17, 13-9 home. Probable starters: Robbie Ray, 3-4, 2.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 47 K; Shohei Ohtani, 2-2, 0.97 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 37.0 IP, 42 K. Current market range used: SFG +199 to +235, LAD -240 to -312, full-game total 8.0 to 8.5. Consensus value table uses SFG +215, LAD -270, full-game total 8.0.
Team baseline is heavily LAD: SFG has scored 139 runs with a .244 AVG, .292 OBP, .364 SLG, and 3.4 runs/game; LAD has scored 206 runs with a .265 AVG, .344 OBP, .434 SLG, and 5.02 runs/game. SFG staff profile is 4.03 ERA / 1.34 WHIP; LAD staff profile is 3.42 ERA / 1.139 WHIP.
Lineup basis: SFG — Willy Adames, Luis Arraez, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Casey Schmitt, Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee, Harrison Bader, Jesus Rodriguez. LAD — Dalton Rushing, Miguel Rojas, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Andy Pages, Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy, Santiago Espinal. Mookie Betts is not expected to start, and Ohtani may not hit while pitching; that creates a material LAD lineup deduction even with Ohtani’s pitching edge.
Ray’s recent form is steady but walk-prone. His May starts total 12 1/3 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 3 HR, 4 BB, 12 K; his full 2026 game log shows 5+ IP in every start and no outing above 3 ER. His road profile is weaker than the season line: 4.15 ERA in 17 1/3 road innings, with the team losing all three of his road starts.
Ohtani is the main suppressor. He has 6 starts, 37.0 IP, 0.97 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 42 K, and only 4 ER allowed. His home split: 18 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 8 BB, 1.00 ERA. His prior start was 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K.
Batter-vs-pitcher edge is mixed. Dodgers with strong historical samples vs Ray include Miguel Rojas, Enrique Hernández if active, and Freddie Freeman; Will Smith and Max Muncy have weaker samples. Ohtani’s pitching history vs SFG is excellent at 0.43 ERA and 25 K in 4 appearances, but most of that is older than the core modeling window, so it was used lightly.
Weather/park: Dodger Stadium is outdoor, with game weather around 63-64°F, 0% precipitation, and light wind. The park/weather adjustment is slight-over for wind but still modest overall because temperature is not especially hot.
Starting Pitcher Projection
Starting pitcher | Team | Projected IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Robbie Ray | SFG | 5 2/3 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 |
Shohei Ohtani | LAD | 6 1/3 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 1.9 |
Tokyo's Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Team | Rank 1-30 | OPS |
|---|---|---|
LAD | 6 | .895 |
SFG | 26 | .641 |
Boxscore projection | SFG | LAD |
|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 1.2 | 2.2 |
Full game | 3.0 | 4.5 |
Released/revised 1 day(s) ago
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Ben Burns
Event: (963) Kansas City Royals at (964) Chicago White Sox: Total
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 7:40 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Total Over 8.0 (-115) Kris Bubic (LHP), Anthony Kay (LHP) Must Start
Thursday's White Sox/Royals game should see plenty of scoring. Kay has a poor 4.89 ERA and 1.57 WHIP the season. When pitching during the evening, he has a 5.89 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Those numbers are in line with his career (5.39 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) numbers. Bubic's numbers are quite a lot better than Kay's but they're still not amazing. Notably, Bubic walked four in five innings last game and he's now issued 10 free passes over his past three starts. He's also 0-2 for his career when facing the Sox on the road. Bubic is backed by a bad KC bullpen. Entering Wednesday, Royal relievers had a 4.74 ERA (fifth worst in the majors) and 1.45 WHIP. Chicago's bullpen stats aren't much better. Entering Wednesday, White Sox relievers had a 4.55 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair. *good at 9 or better
Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago
Will Rogers
Event: (909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers: Spread
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 13, 2026 10:10 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-108) Action
Los Angeles Dodgers [ATS] | Good until -1.5, -130.
Pitching Matchup: Robbie Ray/Shohei Ohtani [Action].
Losing four games in a row is never fun in the MLB, especially for the defending World Series Champs. But, it happens over the course of a long 162 game season. I had the Dodgers to return back to form yesterday, and it didn't turn out too well. But, with Ohtani on the mound today, I like Los Angeles once more to get back on track. Robbie Ray has been lit up over his past couple of meetings with LAD. Take the Dodgers on Wednesday.
Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago
Mike Lundin
Event: (909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers: Spread
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 13, 2026 10:10 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110) Robbie Ray (LHP), Shohei Ohtani (RHP) Must Start
Giants vs Dodgers MLB Free Pick
The Angle(s): The Los Angeles Dodgers have dropped four straight and are creeping into “chase” territory, if that’s your thing. As for me, this looks like a prime bounce-back spot. They draw left-hander Robbie Ray who has a 2.76 ERA on the season, but note that Los Angeles tagged him for 12 runs on 14 hits over 14 2/3 innings last season.
The Bet: Dodgers -1½ (3%).
Bet to: Dodgers -1½ -125.
Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago
Oskeim Sports
Event: (37) Montreal Canadiens at (38) Buffalo Sabres: Moneyline
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: May 14, 2026 7:00 PM EDT
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: Montreal Canadiens 102
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Zach Benson broke a tie with a third-period power-play goal as the Sabres beat Montreal 3-2 on Tuesday night in Game 4, evening the Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Canadiens are primed to bounce back in Game 5 as NHL playoff teams coming off an upset loss as home favorites are 276-217 (56%; +5.1% ROI), including 109-71 (60.6%; +9% ROI) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Montreal finds support in a similar 207-157 (56.9%; +2.3% ROI) system dating to 2007 that invests against certain postseason teams coming off a game as road underdogs with fewer than two days of rest. Let’s also note that NHL playoff division road underdogs coming off a loss are 57-43 (57%; +37.1% ROI) versus opponents entering off a win, including 28-16 SU (63.6%; +55.9% ROI) and 34-10 PL (77.3%; +17.4% ROI) since 2019. Since 2015, .500 or greater NHL road teams are 71-54 (56.8%; +30.8% ROI) in Game 5 of a playoff series, including 47-33 (58.8%; +30.6% ROI) since 2019. Finally, the Canadiens fall into a very good 244-142 (63.2%; +15.3% ROI) statistical profile indicator of mine that dates to 2003 and involves shots on goal in the team's previous two playoff games. This situation has been 117-63 (65%; +15.7% ROI) since 2016. Take the Montreal Canadiens as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, May 14.
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Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago
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