Tokyo Brandon
Event: (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) New York Mets: Mitch Keller Outs
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: March 28, 2026 4:10 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Mitch Keller Outs Over 15.5 (111)
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last 2 seasons:
Mitch Keller |
NYM |
2-1, 2.21 ERA, 18 K in 3 appearances |
Bottom line: I project Mitch Keller for 17.2 outs against the Mets on Saturday, March 28, 2026. He’s listed as the Pirates’ starter in a 4:10 PM ET day game at Citi Field against David Peterson.
Calculation stack
1) All starts, 3/1/2025–3/28/2026 — weighted 30%
Keller made 32 starts in 2025 and averaged 5.51 innings per game, which is 16.5 outs per start.
2) Vs. Mets in that window — weighted 50%
Keller made two 2025 starts against the Mets:
May 13, 2025: 7.0 IP = 21 outs
June 27, 2025: 5.1 IP = 16 outs
That is 37 outs in 2 starts = 18.5 outs per start.
3) March starts in that window — weighted 20%
Keller’s March 2025 split shows 1 start, 6.0 IP, which is 18 outs.
Base weighted projection
Overall bucket: 16.5 × 30% = 5.0
Vs. Mets bucket: 18.5 × 50% = 9.3
March bucket: 18.0 × 20% = 3.6
Base weighted projection = 17.8 outs
Adjustments
Road split: Keller’s 2025 road split was 80.2 IP in 15 road starts = 16.0 outs/start, below his 16.5 overall average, so I dock -0.5 outs.
Day split: Keller’s 2025 day split was 66.2 IP in 12 day starts = 16.6 outs/start, basically neutral to his overall baseline, so I leave this at 0.0 outs.
Ballpark factor: 0.0 outs
Fatigue / build-up: Keller’s final spring outing on March 22 was 3 2/3 innings, but MLB also reported that Keller will be treated as a regular starter this season. I apply only a small -0.1 outs opening-week leash adjustment.
Final projection
17.8 base
- 0.5 road
+ 0.0 day
+ 0.0 park
- 0.1 build-up
Final projected outs: 17.2
That is 1.7 outs above the line of 15.5
Released/revised 22 minute(s) ago
Rob Vinciletti
Event: (917) Tampa Bay Rays at (918) St. Louis Cardinals: Moneyline
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: March 28, 2026 2:15 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: St. Louis Cardinals -110
Saturday card Rob Unleashes his 20 NCAAB Tournament top play with 3 Undefeated tournament systems. There is also a 2x perfect total and our Early season MLB Power system sides and NBA Late season systems. MLB Comp play below
The MLB Comp play for Saturday is on St. Louis at 2;10 eastern. The Cards are in a nice game 2 system that pertains to non division home teams that have rest and scored 9 or more runs in game one/ These teams are 8-0 since 2009. In the series with Tampa that Cards have won 3 of 4 here at home. The Cards have Michael McGreevy going and have won 13 of his 17 starts when they were a favorite or dog of 150 or less. He had a solid spring with a 2.45 ERA and went 5 innings allowing just a run in his last spring start. Boyle foes for the Rays and he is onlY up with Pepiot on the D.L. he was average at best last season and had depressed velocity at AAA. Look for the Card to win this one. GL Rob V-
Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago
Oskeim Sports
Event: (631) Purdue at (632) Arizona: Spread
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 28, 2026 8:49 PM EDT
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Purdue +6.5 (-110)
Purdue has won seven straight games, which is significant because NCAA Tournament underdogs coming off four or more consecutive wins are 28-8-1 ATS (77.8%) in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Round, covering by an average margin of +4.7 points per game. Arizona ranks 44th in college basketball for pace with 71.1 possessions per 40 minutes, but fast-paced teams like the Wildcats are 125-163-8 ATS (43.4%) in the NCAA tournament, including 63-86 ATS (42.3%) since 2020. In contrast, Purdue plays at a much more methodical pace, ranking 321st in pace (65.3). Historically, the slower-paced teams have controlled the tempo and had more success in the NCAA tournament from a point spread perspective. Specifically, fast-paced NCAA tournament teams like Arizona are 94-132-4 ATS (41.6%) versus slow-paced teams like the Boilermakers, including 47-70 ATS (40.2%) since 2019. Behind an offense ranked 23rd in the nation in points per game (86.7), the Wildcats have covered the spread in four straight games. Based on its recent point spread success, Arizona falls into a negative 170-236-9 ATS (41.9%) college basketball system that dates to 2014 and invests against certain teams with potent offenses entering off two or more consecutive ATS wins. This situation is 107-176-5 ATS (37.8%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Finally, Arizona is just 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2014, including 4-8 SU and 3-7 ATS (30%) from the Sweet 16 Round forward, falling short of market expectations by an average margin of 3.8 points per game. Grab the inflated number with the Purdue Boilermakers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 28.
Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago
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