Tokyo Brandon
Event: (909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers: Spread
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 13, 2026 10:10 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115) Action
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SFG @ LAD — 5/13/2026
Current matchup: SFG 17-24, 7-12 away; LAD 24-17, 13-9 home. Probable starters: Robbie Ray, 3-4, 2.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 47 K; Shohei Ohtani, 2-2, 0.97 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 37.0 IP, 42 K. Current market range used: SFG +199 to +235, LAD -240 to -312, full-game total 8.0 to 8.5. Consensus value table uses SFG +215, LAD -270, full-game total 8.0.
Team baseline is heavily LAD: SFG has scored 139 runs with a .244 AVG, .292 OBP, .364 SLG, and 3.4 runs/game; LAD has scored 206 runs with a .265 AVG, .344 OBP, .434 SLG, and 5.02 runs/game. SFG staff profile is 4.03 ERA / 1.34 WHIP; LAD staff profile is 3.42 ERA / 1.139 WHIP.
Lineup basis: SFG — Willy Adames, Luis Arraez, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Casey Schmitt, Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee, Harrison Bader, Jesus Rodriguez. LAD — Dalton Rushing, Miguel Rojas, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Andy Pages, Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy, Santiago Espinal. Mookie Betts is not expected to start, and Ohtani may not hit while pitching; that creates a material LAD lineup deduction even with Ohtani’s pitching edge.
Ray’s recent form is steady but walk-prone. His May starts total 12 1/3 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 3 HR, 4 BB, 12 K; his full 2026 game log shows 5+ IP in every start and no outing above 3 ER. His road profile is weaker than the season line: 4.15 ERA in 17 1/3 road innings, with the team losing all three of his road starts.
Ohtani is the main suppressor. He has 6 starts, 37.0 IP, 0.97 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 42 K, and only 4 ER allowed. His home split: 18 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 8 BB, 1.00 ERA. His prior start was 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K.
Batter-vs-pitcher edge is mixed. Dodgers with strong historical samples vs Ray include Miguel Rojas, Enrique Hernández if active, and Freddie Freeman; Will Smith and Max Muncy have weaker samples. Ohtani’s pitching history vs SFG is excellent at 0.43 ERA and 25 K in 4 appearances, but most of that is older than the core modeling window, so it was used lightly.
Weather/park: Dodger Stadium is outdoor, with game weather around 63-64°F, 0% precipitation, and light wind. The park/weather adjustment is slight-over for wind but still modest overall because temperature is not especially hot.
Starting Pitcher Projection
Starting pitcher | Team | Projected IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Robbie Ray | SFG | 5 2/3 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 |
Shohei Ohtani | LAD | 6 1/3 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 1.9 |
Tokyo's Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Team | Rank 1-30 | OPS |
|---|---|---|
LAD | 6 | .895 |
SFG | 26 | .641 |
Boxscore projection | SFG | LAD |
|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 1.2 | 2.2 |
Full game | 3.0 | 4.5 |
Released/revised 8 minute(s) ago
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Tokyo Brandon
Event: KBO 2 Leg Parlay
Sport/League: KBO (See all free KBO League picks)
Date/Time: May 13, 2026 5:30 AM EDT
Free KBO League Pick Today: Hanwha Eagles Over 4.5 (-168) / KT Wiz +2.0 (-279)
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Two alt KBO lines for a + money parlay.
Hanwha Eagles at Kiwoom Heroes
Hanwha is 6-4 over the last 10 and scoring 8.6 runs/game with a .343 BA. Kiwoom is 2-7-1 in the same span, scoring only 3.1 runs/game, while allowing 7.7 runs/game with a 6.59 SP ERA and 7.16 bullpen ERA. That screams over more than it screams “pay -264.”
The batter edge is massive: Hanwha has Moon Hyun-bin, Yonathan Perlaza, Kang Baek-ho all sitting top-8 in KBO OPS, while Kiwoom’s best qualified bat listed is An Chi-hong at .817 OPS and then a steep drop.
Starter-wise, Wilkel Hernandez has a 4.86 ERA/1.47 WHIP and gave Kiwoom 4 ER in 4⅔ on March 28, so Kiwoom can contribute to the total. Park Jeong-hun has a 4.15 ERA/1.67 WHIP and just gave Samsung 4 ER in 4 IP in his first 2026 start; he did throw 1⅓ scoreless relief innings vs Hanwha on March 28, but this is a different role and a much hotter Hanwha lineup.
SSG Landers at KT Wiz
SSG is 3-6-1 over the last 10 with a 6.00 SP ERA and 4.34 RP ERA. KT has cooled off at 4-5-1, but the matchup is mostly about the starters: Takeda Shota has an 8.14 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, while Caleb Boushley is at 3.55 ERA over 38 IP.
Takeda did throw 5 shutout innings vs KT on April 25, so there is a head-to-head caution flag. But his full game log is messy: 7 ER vs NC, 5 ER vs Doosan, 5 ER vs Kiwoom, 4 ER vs Hanwha. That profile at Suwon against the league’s top team is not something I want backing at near pick’em.
SSG did beat KT 5-1 on May 12, but that makes this feel more like a KT bounce-back spot with the starting pitcher advantage.
Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago
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Ben Burns
Event: (629) Seattle Storm at (630) Toronto Tempo: Spread
Sport/League: WNBA (See all free WNBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: May 13, 2026 7:00 PM EDT
Free WNBA Basketball Pick Today: Toronto Tempo -3.5 (-105)
The Toronto Tempo likely won't win many games this season. However, this should be a good spot to earn their first. The Storm did beat Connecticut last game but the Sun are rebuilding this season. The Storm had a major roster overhaul themselves and are also rebuilding. They're transitioning away from the previous core, trading away veterans and going with a youth movement. They've got a new coach and are more focused on long-term development than "winning now." While the same could be said of the Tempo, Canada's first ever team definitely want to earn "Win #1." With the home crowd behind them, I like their chances of getting it. *good at -4 or better
Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago
Tokyo Brandon
Event: (959) San Francisco Giants at (960) Los Angeles Dodgers: Spread
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 12, 2026 10:10 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-126) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LHP) Must Start
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============
Projected final: LAD 5.5, SFG 3.6
1st 5 and full-game boxscore
Period | SFG | LAD | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 |
Full game | 3.6 | 5.5 | 9.1 |
Projected starting pitcher box
Pitcher | Team | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adrian Houser | SFG | 4 2/3 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | 6 1/3 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 2.0 |
Wager & Probability Analysis — Model-Driven
Market | Projection | Model Probability | Fair Odds | Consensus Odds | Odds Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LAD moneyline | LAD by 1.9 | 66.0% | -194 | -177 | +17 cents |
SFG moneyline | SFG +1.9 | 34.0% | +194 | +162 | -32 cents |
Full game over 9.5 | 9.1 total | 45.0% | +122 | -110 | -232 cents |
Full game under 9.5 | 9.1 total | 55.0% | -122 | -110 | +12 cents |
Full game over 9.0 | 9.1 total | 50.8% push-adjusted | -103 | -110 | -7 cents |
Full game under 9.0 | 9.1 total | 49.2% push-adjusted | +103 | -110 | -213 cents |
1st 5 over 4.5 | 4.5 total | 50.0% | +100 | -110 | -210 cents |
1st 5 under 4.5 | 4.5 total | 50.0% | +100 | -110 | -210 cents |
SFG 1st 5 team total over 1.5 | 1.5 | 50.0% | +100 | -110 | -210 cents |
LAD 1st 5 team total over 2.5 | 3.0 | 57.5% | -135 | -115 | +20 cents |
SFG full team total under 4.0 | 3.6 | 54.0% push-adjusted | -117 | -110 | +7 cents |
LAD full team total over 4.5 | 5.5 | 62.0% | -163 | -120 | +43 cents |
Released/revised 22 hour(s) ago
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Tokyo Brandon just released the best Japanese baseball spot on the board as a bet for $7! This is for late-night hours of Tuesday night. As a former MLB scout for 10 years and a 3-time #1 capper in profit among all 33 WagerTalk cappers in the last five years, Tokyo Brandon knows how to spot edges others miss. If you’re looking for a high-value be ...
Steve Merril
Event: (979) St. Louis Cardinals at (980) Oakland Athletics: Total
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: May 12, 2026 9:40 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Total Over 9.5 (-118) Andre Pallante (RHP), Jeffrey Springs (LHP) Must Start
-St. Louis starter Andre Pallante projects to give up 3.1 runs with a 5.03 ERA and 1.51 WHIP
-righty projects to have a 5.8 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 1.7 strikeout/walk ratio
-Athletics offense is averaging 5.1 runs per game on 9.2 hits per game vs. right-handed starters
-Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs projects for 2.8 earned runs with a 4.43 ERA and 1.42 WHIP
-lefty projects to have a 6.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 2.6 strikeout/walk ratio
-Cardinals offense is averaging 5.2 runs per game on 7.7 hits per game on the road this season
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Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago
Oskeim Sports
Event: (517) Cleveland Cavaliers at (518) Detroit Pistons: Spread
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: May 13, 2026 8:00 PM EDT
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Detroit Pistons -4.0 (-103)
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Cleveland evened its second-round series against the Pistons with a 112-103 victory Monday night. Donovan Mitchell tied an NBA playoff record with 39 points in the second half, while James Harden had his 40th playoff double-double with 24 points and 11 assists. Detroit has now lost two straight, but .551 or greater NBA teams with rest coming off back-to-back losses are 691-551-20 ATS (55.6%), including 168-120-3 ATS (58.3%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average margin of 2.5 points per game. These teams have been 286-216-7 ATS (57%) in the postseason, including 133-87-1 ATS (60.5%) since 2016, covering by an average of 4.1 points per game. In contrast, NBA playoff underdogs entering off consecutive wins are 229-300-8 ATS (43.3%) since 1996. Let’s also note that NBA playoff home favorites coming off a loss, like Detroit, are 351-275-8 ATS (56.1%), including 397-315-11 ATS (55.8%) in Game 2 or beyond of a series. Finally, postseason favorites of fewer than two points are 132-171-1 ATS (43.6%) in a tied series, while Round 2 home teams are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) following a Round 2 loss, covering by an average of 6.3 points per game. Lay the points with the Detroit Pistons as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, May 13.
PROVEN PERFORMANCE
-> Perfect 10-0 Overall Run
-> 140-92 (60.3%) Overall Run | +96 Units
-> Basketball: 105-71 (60%) | +86.2 Units
-> Top Plays (All Sports): 47-30 (61%)
Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago
Steve Seagrave
Event: (515) Minnesota Timberwolves at (516) San Antonio Spurs: Naz Reid Points + Rebounds + Assists
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: May 12, 2026 10:00 PM EDT
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Naz Reid Points + Rebounds + Assists Over 20.5 (-120)
Seagrave is on a strong 31-20 (61%) run with his posted Free Picks since March 19th!
Next Winner HERE:
Naz Reid Points + Rebounds + Assists Over 20.5 (-120):
Naz Reid has covered this line in 3 of the first 4 games of this series while recording 28, 32, 22 and 18 PRA for an average of 25 PRA per game. Reid's lone under occurred in Game 2 where he played only 21 minutes due to a 38-point blowout. When Reid has played 28+ minutes, he has cleared this line in 28/33 games (85%) on the season including 7/8 playoff games. Reid relies on scoring on at-the-break threes & in the non-restricted area of the paint and the Spurs rank middle of the pack in both of those areas. There is strong rebounding upside as Naz has logged 9 rebounds in three of the four games with 7 rebounds in the blowout game. It also makes sense to includes assists as we only need one dime to justify adding that category and Reid as recorded 4 and 5 rebounds in the last two games. Both teams are playing at breakneck speeds, and Rudy Gobert basically gets run off the court late in the game while paving the way for Reid to continue to carve out a major role in this offense.
*Playable at 21.5 or better
Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago
Dan Kaiser 
Razor Ray Monohan 
Marc David 
Mike Fink 
Joseph D'Amico 
Rocky Atkinson 
Gianni the Greek 