Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Zac Taylor is going to start his studs on offense, but keep in mind that he is only 4-14 straight up in preseason.

Dam Campbell and the Lions are coming into this season with a chip. Expect the Lions to claw at kneecaps late, and get the cover.

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As of posting this release, I see Pittsburgh an underdog of anywhere from 2.5 to 3.0 points. If this game closes closer to +1.5, I still like the Steelers at home.

Thursday’s free winner: Pittsburgh Steelers.

Game 104.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

Money has certainly come on the Green Bay Packers in this preseason matchup. This line shifted significantly. But I really feel money is moving in the wrong direction. Yes, Green Bay is expected to be one of the top teams in the NFC, and also touted to win 10.0-games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is a longshot to win their Conference, and is only expected to win approximately 8.0-games. Having said that, very few out there believe the Steelers could win their division, let alone their conference. But they have a very loyal fanbase. Playing at home in front of their loyal fans, I expect them to come out here and play this game as if it were for a title. I will admit, the Packers have some pretty big names in key backup roles. However, at the quarterback position, running back position, and wide receiver position, most people will know many of the names vying to better their slots on the Steelers team. I know there was a time under the old regime the Steelers did not care about being victorious in August. But they have a new boss at the helm, and he must establish a winning tradition, even if this is the preseason. Take the Pittsburgh Steelers. Thank you.

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Boston/Toronto Under 8 makes sense because this matchup sets up far more like the low‑scoring games these teams have played all season than the 10‑run outlier we saw last night. Max Scherzer’s overall numbers look rough, but he’s quietly stabilized with a 2.38 ERA over his last two starts, and his long‑term splits matter here — a 3.19 career ERA in August and a 3.14 ERA in day games. Boston hasn’t been hitting, averaging just 2.8 runs over its last five, and they’ve struggled to string together innings against quality pitching. Payton Tolle has been even better, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts with a 2.75 ERA in that span, and he’s been excellent on the road with a 2.91 ERA, including 2.14 over his last four away from home. His road starts have averaged just 5.89 total runs, and his lone outing in this park produced only three. The Under is 8–4 in this year’s season series with just 6.5 runs per game, and Toronto’s offense has been quiet at home, averaging 3.90 runs. Only two of the Jays’ last 12 home games have gone over eight, with those contests averaging 5.912 runs. With two pitchers trending up, two offenses trending down, and a ballpark that’s played small for weeks, this one profiles as another Under.

Arizona Cardinals +120

We were on the Cardinals last week and stick with them here. They lost late, but I like the continuity angle — this team has a game already under its belt while playing this one as the road dog. Teams coming off a Hall of Fame Game loss also tend to tighten up defensively the following week, which plays into a lower-scoring script.

The matchup itself is intriguing on its own: Fernando Mendoza and Carson Beck face off again. But beyond that, Mendoza is surrounded by a veteran-heavy roster, and veteran QBs historically don't bring much urgency to preseason snaps unless there's an active competition for the job — which isn't the case here.

I lean Under on the total, but for the side I'm not messing with the points. Give me the road dog.

Pick: Cardinals +120

Risk 1 Unit to win 1.2 Units

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Ricky's play on MIN.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Phillies are 2-4 in their last 6 games.

- The Twins are 5-3 in the last 8 head to head meetings.

- Aaron Nola is 1-4 in his last 5 starts for the Phillies.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.