Pro Sports Picks
Event: (619) TCU at (620) Central Florida: Moneyline
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: February 17, 2026 7:00 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Central Florida -142
PSP Data Driven play on UCF.
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Central Florida is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games. TCU is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games on the road.
Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago
Ricky Tran
Event: (655) Minnesota at (656) Oregon: Moneyline
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: February 17, 2026 10:30 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Oregon -175
Ricky's play on OREG.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- Minnesota is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games.
- Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
- Minnesota is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Verdict: The value is on the Home favorite.
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RICKY WINS YEAR AFTER YEAR (2022-2026) Ricky's Career Highlights: (As of January 2026) - 1,225-834 (60%) MLB Since 20218 - 523-384 +$35,850 Overall in 2024 - 614- 467 +$17,580 Overall in 2023 - 342-251 +$36,410 Overall in 2020 - 22-9 (71%) UFC Since 2020
Tokyo Brandon
Event: (649) Air Force at (650) New Mexico: Spread
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: February 17, 2026 9:00 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Air Force +28.5 (-110)
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THE "PLUG YOUR NOSE AND BET IT" BET.
Air Force vs New Mexico — today (Feb 17, 2026)
Category | Air Force | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
Points per game (since 1/1/26) | 57.8 | 81.9 |
Points allowed per game (since 1/1/26) | 84.8 | 71.1 |
Top 2 scorers (season PPG) | Lucas Hobin 11.9; Kam Sanders 11.6 | Jake Hall 15.8; Tomislav Buljan 12.3 |
Assist leader (season APG) | Kam Sanders 3.6 | Chris Howell 3.4 (next: Deyton Albury 3.2) |
Top 2 rebounders (season RPG) | Caleb Walker 5.4; Kam Sanders 4.0 | Tomislav Buljan 9.9; Luke Haupt 4.4 |
Injuries | Chris Catchings (Q); Keaton Frisch (Q) | Chris Howell (Q, wrist) |
Score projection
Total + spread breakdown vs DraftKings
Spread -27.5
Air Force’s average margin since Jan 1 is about -26.9 per game (already basically sitting on this line), and that includes games that weren’t against New Mexico’s profile.
New Mexico’s Feb ATS trend is shakier in some trend reports, but matchup-specific history includes Air Force sneaking covers in Albuquerque in prior years.
My read: New Mexico can absolutely clear this, but you’re betting on motivation/rotation late (garbage-time is the true apex predator of big favorites).
Trends & patterns
Since 1/1/26 scoreboards (hard results):
Air Force since Jan 1: 0–12, scoring 57.8, allowing 84.8 (avg margin -26.9).
New Mexico since Jan 1: 9–3, scoring 81.9, allowing 71.1 (avg margin +10.8).
Broader betting-trend feeds (context):
Air Force: 1–11 ATS last 12, 0–20 SU last 20 road, totals OVER streak recently noted.
New Mexico: 11–5 ATS last 16, 18–2 SU last 20 at home, totals OVER in a big chunk of recent samples.
Player matchup notes (form + fit, with competition in mind)
New Mexico offense vs Air Force defense
Jake Hall + spacing: Hall’s efficiency/usage profile (15.8 PPG season) is the kind that punishes slower closeouts; Air Force has struggled to keep teams out of clean looks.
Tomislav Buljan inside: 9.9 RPG with real scoring (12.3 PPG) gives New Mexico a steady “free points” option if Air Force can’t hold the glass.
If Chris Howell sits/limited (Q): more creation falls to Albury/Haupt; it can reduce some “easy” assists but doesn’t necessarily kill scoring because New Mexico still has multiple handlers/shooters.
Air Force offense vs New Mexico defense
Air Force’s offense since Jan 1 is 57.8 PPG—that’s the core problem. They don’t get to the line much, and when they fall behind, shot quality tends to degrade into late-clock stuff.
Kam Sanders (11.6 PPG / 3.6 APG) is basically the engine; if New Mexico turns him over or forces him into low-efficiency pull-ups, Air Force’s scoring alternatives are thin.
Lucas Hobin is the top scorer (11.9 PPG), but asking him to carry offense against a better, deeper Mountain West opponent is a rough assignment—especially on the road.
Bottom line: the talent/athleticism gap plus home court points toward a blowout; the only real drama is whether the blowout is fast enough to flirt with the over, or clinical enough to land under while still covering.
Why I am betting Air Force +28.5
28.5 is a monster number → backdoor cover lives here.
You can be “wrong” for 35 minutes and still cash if New Mexico goes to deep bench / drains clock. Big spreads are basically garbage-time derivatives.New Mexico is massively favored (ML around -50000) → incentive to coast late.
When the win is virtually locked, coaches often prioritize health + reps, not margin.New Mexico guard depth is dinged up (Chris Howell wrist, listed OUT in multiple injury feeds).
Even if New Mexico still wins easily, missing a primary ball-handler/creator can reduce “run-you-off-the-floor” minutes and make it easier for the dog to trade empty possessions and hang around the number.Air Force’s scoring “ceiling game” is real, and it only needs to show up a little.
ESPN’s game preview note highlights Lucas Hobin coming off a 26-point game. If Hobin (or one other Falcon) is even moderately hot, +28.5 becomes much more reasonable.Inflation / public bias tends to pile onto the fun team at home.
New Mexico at The Pit is a popular public click, and big-favorite lines can creep upward because nobody wants to hold their nose and buy the ugly dog.The “blowout script” can actually help +28.5.
If New Mexico jumps out big, they may slow pace (more half-court, more clock), which reduces total possessions and makes it harder to extend margin from “up 20” to “up 35.”Air Force injury news can be less damaging than it looks if it forces tighter rotation efficiency.
Catchings/Frisch have been listed as questionable on some boards. If one plays limited but the remaining rotation is clean and low-turnover, the cover becomes more plausible.
The one thing you’re really betting (the “cover recipe”)
Air Force +28.5 is basically a bet that New Mexico wins comfortably but not vindictively, and that Air Force avoids the two margin accelerants:
turnover avalanche → runouts/dunks, and
getting destroyed on the glass for 15+ extra shots (Buljan types).
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Jimmy Adams
Event: (623) Louisville at (624) SMU: Spread
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: February 17, 2026 7:00 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Louisville -3.5 (-110)
One of the marquee matchups of the day takes us to Dallas, Texas, where Louisville looks to extend on a 5 game winning streak. The Cardinals have never lost to SMU, and these teams met on New Year's Eve, with Louisville coming away with a 14 point victory. Freshman Mikel Brown Jr. has been setting records for the Cardinals, who have the highest scoring offense in the ACC. They’re 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 8th in 2 point shooting percentage in the nation. Take Louisville.
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CBB TUE BIG MONEY! 75% (3-1) RUN! : $ 7.00
After getting his clients paid in a big way over the weekend, Jimmy is back with another college basketball BEST BET WINNER that’s yours for JUST $7! He’s done the research so you don’t have to, using advanced analytics, models, the eye test, and more, all in order to put you in the best possible position to WIN BIG! This play is one of the b ...
Oskeim Sports
Event: (617) South Carolina at (618) Florida: Spread
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: February 17, 2026 7:00 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: South Carolina +23.5 (-105)
South Carolina arrives in Florida off six consecutive losses, with the last two coming by a combined 33 points. In contrast, the Gators are coming off a 92-83 win over Kentucky and have won five straight contests, including a 95-48 victory over the Gamecocks on January 28. Since 2007, college basketball road underdogs with same-season revenge are 323-234-13 ATS (58%) following back-to-back losses by ten points or more. This situation improves to 206-145-4 ATS (58.7%) when our road underdogs are getting double digits from the oddsmakers, including 90-53 ATS (62.9%) since 2021. South Carolina has failed to cover the spread in 4 of its last 6 games, but double-digit road underdogs failing to cover by more than 40 combined points in their last 5 games are 394-296-8 ATS (57.1%). In contrast, the Gators have covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games, but .601 or greater double-digit favorites that have covered six or more of their last eight games are just 403-492-14 ATS (45%), including 269-342-11 ATS (44%) since 2017. Grab the points with South Carolina as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, February 17.
Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago
Tom Macrina
Event: PGA Genesis Invitational
Sport/League: GLF (See all free Golf picks)
Date/Time: February 19, 2026 6:00 PM EST
Free All Golf Pick Today: To Record A Top 20 Viktor Hovland 135
Viktor Hovland has a strong track record at The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club, posting a Top 20 finish in all four of his previous starts there. His results include a standout T4 in 2022 and consistent performances like T5 (2021), T20 (2023), and T19 (2024), showcasing how well the course suits his game—particularly his ball striking and creativity on approach shots.
After a solid T10 at the WM Phoenix Open (finishing at 12-under with rounds including a strong 65), Hovland followed up with a disappointing T58 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. That result was a letdown, especially after early promise, but it came on a very different layout with challenging weather conditions—far removed from Riviera's demands.
Riviera plays to Hovland's strengths: precision iron play, creativity around the greens, and the ability to navigate a thoughtful, strategic course rather than one relying heavily on length or scrambling in wind. With his history of success here and signs of form earlier in 2026 (including a T14 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic), this feels like a spot for a rebound.
We're confidently backing Hovland to deliver a Top 20 finish this week.
Let's cash some tickets!
Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago
Terry Edelmann
Event: (4073) Germany at (4074) France
Sport/League: HKY (See all free Hockey picks)
Date/Time: February 17, 2026 6:10 AM EST
Free All Hockey Pick Today: (GER) Tim Stutzle Anytime Goal (-110)
Men’s Olympic Hockey
France vs Germany
Play: (GER) Tim Stutzle Anytime Goal (-110) at Draftkings
Tim Stutzle entered the Olympic break as the hottest goal scorer in the NHL, scoring in five consecutive games and in 9 of his last 12. He continued his scoring streak with two goals in his first Olympic game and added another in his second and third games. Stutzle is currently the hottest goal scorer in the world. With France having lost all three of their games—losing 4-0, 6-3, and 10-2—look for Stutzle to continue his goal-scoring success in this matchup.
Stutzle is spelled Stuetzle on Draftkings.
Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago
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Tokyo Brandon
Event: (3749) Florida at (3750) Stetson: Moneyline
Sport/League: BSB (See all free Baseball picks)
Date/Time: February 17, 2026 6:30 PM EST
Free All Baseball Pick Today: Florida -250
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Florida Gators at Stetson Hatters — 02/17
What I’m weighting (pitching, bats, pen)
Starting pitcher form (edge: Florida): Florida is slated to start RHP Billy Barlow, who—despite a mediocre overall 2025 line—was nasty in midweek starts (0.59 ERA, 15 K / 4 BB in 15 1/3 IP) and already threw 4 IP, 1 ER at Stetson last year.
Stetson is slated to start RHP Zane Coppersmith, who worked mostly in relief and posted a 6.67 ERA in 2025 (and only one start). That usually signals shorter leash + earlier bullpen exposure.Bullpen skill / control (edge: Florida): Florida’s staff is described as returning a big chunk of innings and opened 2026 with multiple scoreless/debut relief gems.
Stetson through 3 games: 6.92 staff ERA with 16 BB and 16 K in 26 IP (control issues = free baserunners).Batter form + defense (edge: Florida): Florida’s offense came out hot (fast starts, lots of extra-base damage).
Stetson so far: .268/.381/.351, 0 HR, plus 8 errors (.931 fielding).
Win probability & fair odds (my projection)
Florida win probability: 76%
Stetson win probability: 24%
Fair American odds (from my win%):
Florida -317
Stetson +317
Book odds vs my odds + value
Book moneylines:
Florida -250 (implied 71.43%)
Stetson +190 (implied 34.48%)
Side | My win% | My fair odds | Book odds | Edge vs book implied | EV on $100 stake* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida | 76% | -317 | -250 | +4.57% | +$6.40 |
Stetson | 24% | +317 | +190 | -10.48% | -$30.40 |
*EV assumes my win% is correct. For -250, a $100 stake wins $40 profit; for +190, a $100 stake wins $190 profit.
Bet value call: Florida -250 shows positive value versus my fair line (you’re paying less juice than my model says is “fair”). Stetson +190 is a pass/fade at that price.
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