Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Good to: Under 43.5 at −115.

Two profitable league-wide systems support the Under, each addressing how the posted total compares with previous scoring expectations.

The first identifies regular-season home games with totals no higher than 53 in which the teams’ combined season scoring and points-allowed averages exceed twice the posted total by at least 2.9 points, subject to additional situational exclusions. Despite that apparent offensive support, qualifying games have gone 1,745-1,381-67 to the Under, earning 225.9 units. Atlanta–Tampa Bay qualifies.

The second identifies games from Week 6 onward with totals below 46.5 when a qualifying team’s previous four posted totals averaged at least 47.5. It also excludes situations in which the teams’ previous games combined to finish too far below their totals. That angle is 248-148-8 to the Under, producing 85.2 units and a 19.6% ROI. The lower current total has historically been more informative than the higher expectations surrounding those teams’ recent games.

Tampa Bay’s personnel situation adds support. Emeka Egbuka’s absence removes a receiving option, while right tackle Luke Goedeke’s questionable status creates a potential protection problem. Additional blocking help from a tight end or running back would leave fewer receivers immediately available in routes and could encourage shorter throws.

The Buccaneers have also demonstrated an ability to control possession through their ground game. Their earlier victory over Dallas included 241 rushing yards and more than 39 minutes of possession. Sustained rushing drives would reduce opportunities for both offenses, particularly if Tampa Bay establishes a lead.

The supplied market moved from 46.5 to 43.5, so some value has already disappeared. At 43.5, however, the two qualifying historical angles and Tampa Bay’s receiving and protection concerns still support the Under.

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Liaoning vs. Shenzhen

Strong Liaoning advantage

• Recent form: Liaoning is 5–1 and just defeated Ningbo 107–91. Shenzhen has improved with consecutive wins over Shanxi and Jilin.

• Competition: Shenzhen has faced Beijing, Shanghai and Beijing Royal Fighters, which helps explain some of its poor overall scoring statistics.

• Home/away: Liaoning is unbeaten in its two home games. Shenzhen is 2–1 away, including the recent Jilin victory.

• Pace: Approximately 81 possessions. Shenzhen's low shooting volume limits the scoring ceiling.

• First quarter: Liaoning averages 28.0 first-quarter points, while Shenzhen allows 28.2.

• Scoring concern: Shenzhen has reached 90 only once in its last five games.

Projection: Liaoning 99–81.

I'm either going to look like an absolute dummy or brilliant genius with this pick. I have the utmost confidence it will be the latter. There's no question that New England is the far better team on paper. However, NFL teams that are far better than their opponents don't always win and more importantly cover as a sizable favorite. New England is coming off a 30-24 loss in their previous game on the Thursday night national televised contest. That loss dropped their season record to 4-3. Miami is coming off their first win of the season 28-25 over the Jets as a 3.5-point road underdog. They've now played 3 very completive games in a row. Prior to last week's win they lost their previous 2 games to Cincinnati (4-2) by 7 and by 5 at Minnesota (6-0). I'm not going to go out on a limb and call for an outright upset but I wouldn't be totally shocked if it occurred. But I like "The Fish" to say inside this number as a division home underdog.

Bet the Miami Dolphins as a point-spread home underdog of +6.0 or higher.

We're getting a +114 on the over 6.5 goals at Philadelphia on Sunday. That's pretty fair when considering the current form of these teams. Off a 5-2 loss to the Capitals, each of the Flyers' last three games has produced a minimum of seven goals. Off a 4-3 win over the Penguins, the Mammoth have seen five of their last six games finish with seven or more. Entering the weekend, Utah is tied for the most power-play goals in the league and ranks second in power-play percentage, behind only Edmonton. While the Mammoth are good at converting their power-plays they're not so good at stopping their opponents from also doing so. Grab the plus money on the over.

Since Brian Schottenheimer took over as head coach of the Cowboys, Dallas is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a home favorite against anyone not named the Commanders. The average line was Dallas -5, and they lost by an average of 8 points per game.

This Arizona franchise has had Dallas' number for years. Arizona has won and covered 4 straight in this series, and 8 of the last 9. And they want to give us a full TD with the Cardinals here? Against that porous Cowboys defense? I'm a lifelong, die-hard Cowboys fan, but I'll gladly take that TD with Arizona.