Teddy Covers
Event: (547) New Orleans Pelicans at (548) Los Angeles Lakers: Total
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 10:40 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Total Over 242.5 (-110)
Take LA Lakers – New Orleans OVER (#547-548)
The Lakers just hung 129 on the Warriors and 128 on the Kings in their last two games; playing with pace despite enjoying double digit leads throughout that pair of blowout victories. LA continues to be mediocre at best on the defensive end of the court. New Orleans just got a big boost to their offensive capabilities with the long awaited return of Dejounte Murray to the lineup as their starting point guard. In his last two outings, the Pelicans cashed Over bets with room to spare; as a team they’ve scored scored 110+ in ten straight games without playing lockdown defense in any of them. The last meeting between these two teams on this floor (in January) produced 254 points. No surprise here if tonight’s game approaches or exceeds that number. Take the OVER.
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100% College Hoops L8 Days! Serious Shocker!: $ 7.00
Teddy’s College Hoops continues to sizzle! Fresh off ‘right side’ winners with Michigan State on Sunday and Arizona last night, Teddy is 100% perfect in College Hoops action over the last eight days; primed to cash again tonight with Serious Shocker on Tuesday Night! Ride the hot hand & get onboard!
Teddy Covers
Event: (549) Phoenix Suns at (550) Sacramento Kings: Total
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 11:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Total Under 223.0 (-110)
Take Phoenix - Sacramento UNDER (#549-550)
The video below is Tuesday's edition of 'Teddy's Tips', a daily ten minute NBA picks video posted every weekday before 11 AM Pacific Time. I give out four 'free plays' on today's show, including picks for Knicks - Raptors (side) and Lakers - Pelicans (total). For the late game in Sacramento, bettors shouldn't expect much pace, deflating scoring. Even with Devin Booker off the injury report, the Suns have been playing as slow as molasses since Dillon Brooks got hurt, ranked #29 in Pace Ratings since the All Star Break. The Kings offensive production is limited, to put it mildly, held to 104 or less five times in their last eight games. Check out the full video for a more detailed breakdown and best of luck with all your bets on Tuesday! Take the UNDER
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100% College Hoops L8 Days! Serious Shocker!: $ 7.00
Teddy’s College Hoops continues to sizzle! Fresh off ‘right side’ winners with Michigan State on Sunday and Arizona last night, Teddy is 100% perfect in College Hoops action over the last eight days; primed to cash again tonight with Serious Shocker on Tuesday Night! Ride the hot hand & get onboard!
Steve Seagrave
Event: (539) New York Knicks at (540) Toronto Raptors: Josh Hart Points + Rebounds
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 7:40 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Josh Hart Points + Rebounds Over 18.5 (-111)
Josh Hart Points + Rebounds Over 18.5 (-111):
Josh Hart has absolutely dominated the Toronto Raptors while clearing this line in five straight head-to-head games including three 27+ PR efforts this season while averaging 28.7 PR per game. The Raptors have defended Karl Anthony-Towns with Scottie Barnes and that gives Hart the opportunity to cash in on open looks against Jakob Poeltl & Sandro Mamukelashvili's drop coverage. Hart has averaged 30+ minutes per game on the season, and the books are fully expecting 10+ field goal attempts as his FGA line is set at 9.5 with heavy juice to the over. When Hart has played 24+ minutes and taken 8+ FGAs, he's covered this line in 24/30 games (80%). The spread is set at -2.5 so we should avoid a blowout limiting minutes. Sometimes players have another team's number and Hart has shined in head-to-head matchups with Toronto.
Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago
Tom Macrina
Event: (37) Ottawa Senators at (38) Edmonton Oilers: Moneyline
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 9:07 PM EST
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: Ottawa Senators 105
The line has shifted noticeably in the Senators favor overnight/early today. Ottawa opened around +110 to +122 in some books but has tightened to +100–+108 at current market consensus. That reverse line movement (public likely leaning Oilers as home team with stars like McDavid/Draisaitl, yet the number moving toward the road dog) often signals sharp action on the underdog.
Ottawa brings real momentum into Rogers Place—they just knocked off Toronto on the road with a convincing 5-2 win. The Sens are playing with confidence and have been solid in recent outings overall.
Meanwhile, Edmonton has been inconsistent and is showing cracks. They've dropped 5 of their last 6 games. The Oilers defense has been leaky, and they're vulnerable right now despite the home-ice advantage.
In a spot where the road team has fresh legs, recent momentum, and improving odds value, we're happy to back the +money underdog here.
Play: Senators ML +105
Let's cash some tickets!
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Tom's Late Night NHL Slaughter: $ 7.00
Late-night money on the ice! Tom is dialed in for Colorado Avalanche vs Anaheim Ducks — one of the final games on Tuesday’s NHL slate. He’s cashing at 60% his L30 NHL plays. Finish the night strong and ride the hot hand. Let's cash some tickets!
Joseph D'Amico
Event: (545) Memphis Grizzlies at (546) Minnesota Timberwolves: Spread
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 8:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Memphis Grizzlies +14.5 (-115)
Joe D is HOT HOT HOT in ALL SPORTS, and today, together, WE BURN THE BOOKS as I have a HUGE MONEYMAKING CARD FOR YOU: NCAAB 4* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK, 9-3 RUN $7 SMASH, 100% LATE INFO MOVE, & ACC ANNIHILATOR, NHL 7-0 ICEBREAKER and 14-5 POWER PLAY, along with my NBA 6-2 SLAM DUNK. My $7 SMASH is posted at SPORTSMEMO while ALL my other winning information is posted right now at PICKS AND PARLAYS. Go to: https://pnp.buzz/JOED & BURN THE BOOKS!
Tuesday’s FREE WINNER: Memphis Grizzlies.
Game 545.
5:10 PM PST/8:10 PM EST.
My friends, I'm not going to sit here and try to convince you the Memphis grizzlies are a good team. We are all aware they have been absolutely decimated by injuries this season. But sports betting isn't about who wins, sportsbetting is about who covers. And I feel the Minnesota Timberwolves are being overvalued here. Minnesota enters this contest failing to cover eight of their last 11 outings, which does include a 2-4 ATS mark at home during that span. Meanwhile, Memphis enters this contest winning and covering their last two outings, and going back a bit, they have covered six of their last nine overall contests. They have covered five of six games played on the road during that span. They also come into this game may be with a glimmer of hope (lol). Believe they're not, they have had their way in this series taking four of the last six meetings straight up, while covering four of the last seven matchups. I am aware the Timberwolves are running a little hot, winning six of their last seven SU. But this team has only had to lay double-digits but once during that time span and they failed to cover that number. While I will agree on paper, Minnesota is the better team, but the line is just way too high. Take Memphis. than thank you.
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Oskeim Sports
Event: (41) Tampa Bay Lightning at (42) Minnesota Wild: Moneyline
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 9:37 PM EST
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: Tampa Bay Lightning -140
Since 2003, moderate road favorites are 2862-2035 (58.4%; +3.3% ROI) opponents that have the same or worse record. Tampa Bay arrives in Minnesota off a 6-2 loss to the Sabres on Saturday, while the Wild are coming off a 3-1 loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Those scheduling dynamics are significant because, since 2003, NHL road favorites with two days of rest are 821-464 (63.9%; +7.4% ROI) versus opponents with two or fewer days of rest. Moreover, non-division road favorites with more rest than their opponent are 548-314 (63.6%; +6.3% ROI) since 2010. Since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 2334-1538 (60.3%; +2.0% ROI) with a road game on deck. Even better, NHL road favorites with more rest are 517-292 (63.9%; +6.2% ROI) versus opponents entering off a loss, including 220-105 (67.7%; +8.2% ROI) since the beginning of the 2020-21 season. Take the Tampa Bay Lightning as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, March 3. **Jeff is on a RED-HOT 18-6 (75%) overall run and is the #1 Handicapper at WagerTalk (Win %) with a 34-17 (67%) record! Don't miss his 3-game card on Tuesday!**
Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago
Dwayne Bryant
Event: (545) Memphis Grizzlies at (546) Minnesota Timberwolves: Spread
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 8:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Memphis Grizzlies +14.0 (-110)
Key Situational Angle:
Play ON road underdogs averaging 114-118 points per game if they scored at least 125 in their last game and are facing an opponent allowing 114-118 ppg.
Applies to Memphis.
36-14 ATS (72%) since the 2022 season.
Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago
Oskeim Sports
Event: (541) Oklahoma City Thunder at (542) Chicago Bulls: Spread
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 8:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-105)
Since 1999, NBA road favorites of -9 or greater are 180-122-8 ATS (59.6%) versus opponents with the same amount of rest in games following the All-Star break, including 131-86-3 ATS (60.4%) since 2014. Similarly, since 2009, NBA road favorites of five points or greater are 1806-1513-66 ATS (55%), while double-digit road favorites are 383-310-15 ATS (55.3%). Even better, double-digit road favorites are 185-100-6 ATS (64.9%) after the All-Star break, provided they have a non-division game on deck, including 125-64-3 ATS (66.1%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.3 points per game. Oklahoma City falls into profitable 310-243-10 ATS (56.1%) and 260-195-11 ATS (57.1%) statistical profile indicators of mine that date to 1999 and invest on NBA road favorites of greater than 8 points with certain turnover margins. Finally, the Thunder find support in a very good 336-203-12 ATS (62.3%) NBA Road Favorite Scoring Margin system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on large road favorites with certain scoring margins. This situation has been 224-131-5 ATS (63.1%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.5 points per game. Take the Oklahoma City Thunder as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, March 3.
Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago
Oskeim Sports
Event: (549) Phoenix Suns at (550) Sacramento Kings: Spread
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 11:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Phoenix Suns -9.5 (-110)
Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five points or greater are 1806-1513-66 ATS (55%), while double-digit road favorites are 383-310-15 ATS (55.3%). Even better, double-digit road favorites are 185-100-6 ATS (64.9%) after the All-Star break, provided they have a non-division game on deck, including 125-64-3 ATS (66.1%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.3 points per game. Phoenix arrives in Sacramento off a 113-110 victory over the Lakers as 5.5-point underdogs, snapping a two-game losing streak. That win is significant because NBA road favorites of five points or greater coming off a win that snapped two or more consecutive losses are 222-169-7 ATS (56.8%) since 1989. Let’s also note that NBA road favorites coming off an upset win as home underdogs are 136-109-6 ATS (55.5%). Phoenix falls into a very good 1321-1007-42 ATS (56.7%) NBA system of mine that dates to 2001 and invests on certain NBA road favorites of greater than three points. This situation has been 493-355-15 ATS (58.1%) since 2019. Finally, the Suns find support in a profitable 336-203-12 ATS (62.3%) NBA Road Favorite Scoring Margin system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on large road favorites with certain scoring margins. This situation has been 224-131-5 ATS (63.1%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.5 points per game. Lay the number with the Phoenix Suns as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, March 3. **Jeff is on a RED-HOT 18-6 (75%) overall run and is the #1 Handicapper at WagerTalk (Win %) with a 34-17 (67%) record! Don't miss his 3-game card on Tuesday!**
Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago
Bryan Leonard
Event: (673) LSU at (674) Auburn: Spread
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 10:00 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: LSU +8.5 (-110)
673 LSU at Auburn
Two fading teams in desperate situations as the these two Tigers do battle in Auburn. LSU is on an 8-3 spread run when installed as underdogs. They have been much better when taking to the road, as this club has been disappointing in their own building. LSU has a +1.9 net effective field goal percentage on the season, which makes them a dangerous underdog here.
Auburn on the other hand has a negative effective field goal percentage of 1.6. Since starting the season 14-7, it's been all downhill for this club, losing 7 of 8 down the stretch. This club is on a 1-9 point spread run when favored. No way we can trust the home team in this one to win by margin.
PLAY LSU
Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago
Joe Duffy
Event: (541) Oklahoma City Thunder at (542) Chicago Bulls: Spread
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 8:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-105)
The official outlaw line is -14.5. Our outlaw line is what the line would be without public perception or square line moves.
Large away favorites in revenge as long as they do not have a horrible delta points allowed on the season are 1300-993-45. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total. Big away favorites with at least 14 losses are 1556-1220-64 for +214 units.
Two College Basketball selections and an NBA side. Measured adjustments. Proven math. Sustained results.
The tweaking has been made — and the results followed immediately. After refining our top College Basketball system and upgrading to a 58%+ subsystem this season, the first rough patch since October was short-lived. Since the tweak: 9-5 and climbing. The market doesn’t get grace periods — and neither do the sportsbooks. This is long-term production, not short bursts:
All Sports: 413-347 (54%) +3266
Basketball: 253-213 (54%) +1867
College Basketball: 175-137 (56%) +2413
NBA: 63-53 (54%) +472
College hoops continues to be a major engine, now powered by a refined system producing at an elite clip. NBA remains profitable and steady. The overall portfolio stays comfortably in the black.
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Back on Fire! Winner Hand-Picked For All Bettors Whales and Casual : $ 7.00
Hand-crafted discounted bet exclusive for SportsMemo! Measured adjustments. Proven math. Sustained results.The tweaking has been made — and the results followed immediately. After refining our top College Basketball system and upgrading to a 58%+ subsystem this season, the first rough patch since October was short-lived. Since the tweak: 9-5 and ...
David Hess
Event: (673) LSU at (674) Auburn: Spread
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 10:00 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: LSU +8.5 (-110)
LSU +8.5 makes sense because Auburn’s collapse has been real, and LSU has quietly become one of the tougher road underdogs in the SEC. Auburn has dropped seven of its last eight and continues to let winnable games slip away, including the recent loss to an Ole Miss team on a 10‑game skid where they were outscored 45–31 down the stretch . LSU, meanwhile, has been far more competitive away from Baton Rouge than their record suggests—winning at Ole Miss and South Carolina, and losing by just 3 at Texas and 4 at Arkansas in their last five road games. Even their 10‑point loss at Tennessee was tighter than the final margin. Auburn enters this matchup at 15–14 and firmly on the bubble, but their offense has been inconsistent and their late‑game execution has repeatedly failed them. LSU isn’t playing great either, but they’ve shown more stability, and their recent losses have come against teams playing at a much higher level than Auburn right now, including an 83–67 loss to Oklahoma, where they still competed on the glass and got 17 from Max Mackinnon . With Auburn struggling to separate from anyone and LSU proving they can hang on the road, grabbing +8.5 is backed by form, matchup, and momentum.
Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago
The Gold Sheet
Event: (541) Oklahoma City Thunder at (542) Chicago Bulls
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 8:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Cason Wallace (OKC) Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists at Chicago
The Thunder will once again be without a slew of starters as all of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Williams will all miss tonight’s game at Chicago. Cason Wallace will once again look to take advantage of all those injuries as we’ll look at him to go over 23.5 points + rebounds + assists. In his last three games without SGA in the lineup Wallace averaged 35.3 points + rebounds + assists with the Bulls sitting bottom ten in defensive efficiency this season but top five in pace. Wallace should slot in as the starting point guard tonight with Chicago giving up the fifth most rebounds and most assists to point guards per game over the last 15 days. With the Bulls running at a much faster pace than OKC and playing at home, they should dictate the pace which should translate to more possessions overall for both teams. With the Thunder sitting multiple starters again tonight as well as the Bulls let’s look for Wallace to stuff the stat sheet going over 23.5 points + rebounds + assists with OKC favored by double digits.
Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago
Mike Lundin
Event: (547) New Orleans Pelicans at (548) Los Angeles Lakers: Total
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 10:40 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Total Over 238.5 (-112)
Pelicans vs Lakers NBA Free Pick
The Angle(s): The New Orleans Pelicans just gave up 137 points to the Clippers here in LA and now they'll visit the Clippers even more dangerous neighbor, the LA Lakers, who are 18-11 to the over at home. The Lakers won 111-103 at New Orleans back in January, but they're 8-3 to the over at home after an under on the road in the last meeting.
The Bet: OVER (3%).
Rock-solid 8-2 (80% NBA run & 63% (50-30) NBA totals run!
Mike has three NBA totals locked in for Tuesday, and this 3-pack gives you access to every single one, with Mike's 4% Knicks/Raptors NBA TOP PLAY of the Day included! Additionally, Mike has a 4% Kansas/Arizona State CBB TOP PLAY of the Day locked in.
Grab an all-sports all-access pass to ensure you don't miss a single piece of the action.
Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago
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$7 Thunder/Bulls NBA BOOKIE BU$TER *80% RUN*: $ 7.00
Stellar 8-2 (80% NBA run & 63% (50-30) NBA totals run! For Tuesday, Mike has a solid pick on Thunder v. Bulls! Four straight profitable NBA seasons until an off year 2024, and this year Mike is destined to bounce back!Looking to turn your sports interest into a second income? Mike “The Moneymaker” Lundin is your guy. His picks don’t just ...
Ricky Tran
Event: (539) New York Knicks at (540) Toronto Raptors: Spread
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 3, 2026 7:40 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Toronto Raptors +3.5 (-115)
Ricky's play on TOR.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
- Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games played in March.
- The Knicks has loss 8 of their last 14 games.
Verdict: The value is on the home Underdog.
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Ricky's $7 NHL CLASH of the TITANS - 12-2 (86%) OVERALL RUN TESTED!: $ 7.00
RICKY WINS YEAR AFTER YEAR (2022-2026) Ricky's Career Highlights: (As of January 2026) - 1,225-834 (60%) MLB Since 20218 - 843-630 (+51 Units) Overall in 2024 - 728-570 (+30 Units) Overall in 2023 - 342-251 (+36 Units) Overall in 2020 - 22-9 (71%) UFC Since 2020
Bryan Leonard
Event: MLB Season Win Total
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: March 26, 2026 3:00 AM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Cleveland Guardians Under 79.5 Wins
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS SEASON WINS
Growing up in Cleveland we have always been a fan of our local baseball team. Since a child we have watched every Indians/Guardians game on a regular basis. Despite the ownership never really putting big money into the team, the program has had a pretty good product. They have overachieved for quite some time despite having one of the lowest payrolls in Major League Baseball. That was all fine when money ball was all the rage, as Cleveland needed to be at the forefront in order to keep up with the opposition. This organization was one of the first to sign young players to long term contracts.
But those days are gone, as even the most wealthy owners are now willing to play the same game as the Indians/Guardians, Twins and Rays. That is the problem for those type of clubs now, and fans of those teams should be prepared for a tough few years. Payroll for these type of clubs have stagnated over the years, and as of now it's becoming harder and harder to compete. For example, based on the cost of living, Cleveland's payroll is less now than in was twenty years ago.
The club has done a great job of finding bullpen arms that nobody else wanted, and that's once again the strength of this team. But the starting pitching staff is led by a couple of #3 type starters and a group of unproven talent. The batting order has two legit proven players in their prime, along with a lot of unproven or failed major league bats. The brass didn't bring in anyone that can move the needle in free agency.
With the Tigers, Royals and White Sox all improving in the off season, the Guardians will battle with the Twins for last place in this division. No way they are a .500 team with this group of players.
PLAY UNDER 79.5
Released/revised 5 day(s) ago
Tokyo Brandon
Event: (987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline
Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)
Date/Time: March 25, 2026 8:05 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: New York Yankees -120
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_______
Offense baseline
Yankees: 5.24 R/G
Giants: 4.35 R/G
League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51
Offense index (approx):
NYY: 1.194
SFG: 0.991
Starters
Max Fried (NYY, LHP)
2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90
2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)
2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA
2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA
batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)
Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)
Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)
Projected lineups
Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells
Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey
1) Starter expected innings (March workload)
Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:
Webb: 5.0 IP
Fried: 5.1 IP
2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter
Fried context RA9
Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09
Small March bump = 3.24
H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65
Webb context RA9
Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23
Tiny March bump: = 3.29
H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68
3) Park/weather/travel adjustments
Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.
Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)
4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)
Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)
Projection results
Full game projected score
NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2
Projected total: 7.2
1st 5 innings projected score
NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8
1st5 projected total: 4.0
Starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Fried (NYY) | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
Logan Webb (SFG) | 5.0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Hitter boxscore projection
NYY hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trent Grisham | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Aaron Judge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Cody Bellinger | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ben Rice | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ryan McMahon | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
José Caballero | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Austin Wells | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
SFG hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heliot Ramos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Rafael Devers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Willy Adames | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matt Chapman | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jung Hoo Lee | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Harrison Bader | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Bryce Eldridge | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Casey Schmitt | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Patrick Bailey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wager & Probability Analysis
Moneyline value vs book
Team | Model win% | Fair ML | Book ML | Book implied% | Edge (Model–Book) | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NYY | 62.1% | -164 | -115 | 53.5% | +8.6% | +VALUE |
SFG | 37.9% | +164 | +105 | 48.8% | -10.9% | -VALUE |
Totals value (Full game O/U 7)
Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).
Market | Model proj | Model win% | Fair odds | Book odds | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 51.1% (no-push) | -105 | -110 | -1.2% | -VALUE |
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 48.9% (no-push) | +105 | -110 | -3.5% | -VALUE |
Totals value (1st 5 innings)
I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.
Market | Model proj (1st5) | Model win% | Fair odds | Assumed book | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st5 Over 3.5 | 4.0 | 56.5% | -130 | -110 | +4.1% | +VALUE |
1st5 Under 3.5 | 4.0 | 43.5% | +130 | -110 | -8.9% | -VALUE |
Pros for Yankees -120
Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.
Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.
Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.
Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.
7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.
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