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Take #964 Angels Over Rangers

We like the Angels tonight as a small underdog in a strong bounce-back spot. Reid Detmers gets the start for Los Angeles and enters with a 3-8 record and 4.12 ERA. Although he is still searching for his first win at Angel Stadium this season, Detmers has pitched well against Texas at times this year, including a May 24 outing where he flirted with a perfect game before leaving with a no-decision in a 2-1 Angels victory.

Texas counters with MacKenzie Gore, who is 6-9 with a 4.55 ERA. Gore has struggled against Los Angeles throughout his career, going 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA in four starts. His most recent outing against the Angels was particularly ugly, surrendering seven runs on nine hits over five innings in a 13-1 loss on July 8.

Los Angeles is also coming off a disappointing 12-3 loss to the Marlins, creating a prime opportunity for a bounce-back performance in front of the home crowd. With the pitching matchup offering value and the Angels motivated to respond, we're willing to take the plus money.

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The Phillies have made a concentrated effort to protect struggling rookie Andrew Painter, but he may not have anywhere to hide on Monday night. The 23-year-old is 1-8 this season with a 6.48 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP through 16 appearances. He was sent down to the minor leagues in June and has pitched better since his return, but Philadelphia needs a lengthy outing from him tonight against the Cardinals. The Phillies and Blue Jays went to extra innings on both Saturday and Sunday, meaning Brooks Raley, Orion Kerkering and Jhoan Duran have all pitched on back-to-back days and are all presumably unavailable tonight. Chase Shugart threw 39 pitches across 2.0 innings on Saturday, so he may be limited as well. We're going to focus our attention toward Cardinals' first baseman Alec Burleson, who enters Monday in the top-15th percentile among hitters in expected batting average, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and expected slugging percentage. Burleson hit four home runs last week, including one against the Rockies on Sunday. Opposing pitchers are beginning to take notice because Burleson has drawn a walk in eight of his last ten games. Keeping that in mind, we're going to look toward the hits + runs + RBI market in this contest as Burleson will still have avenues to cross the plate if he generates a walk (or two). Burleson has scored a total of six runs in his last five starts. He's hitting .326 with a .403 on-base percentage against right-hand pitching this season, and 16 of the 19 home runs that he's hit have come against righties. Since the All-Star break, Burleson is hitting .322 with a .398 on-base percentage. Painter has allowed lefty bats to hit .302 against him this season. He's 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP away from Citizen's Bank Park this season.

Los Angeles starter Tarik Skubal projects to give up 1.7 runs with a 2.66 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.  Kansas City’s lineup has hit just .212 (25-118) with a weak .633 WHIP against Skubal in his career.  The Royals will start Nick Cameron.  The lefty projects to give up 3.3 earned runs with a 5.17 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Los Angeles’ favor, look for the Dodgers to get a solid home win in this game on Monday night.

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