Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

CONGRATS TO ALL WHO ARE JUMPING ON THE SEASONAL PACK---NBA #1 OVERALL LAST SEASON....HUMP DAY Card has Rob/s 100% NBA TOP TOTALS System headlining along with a 2X PERFECT CFB Side and WNBA. Comp play below

The NBA Comp play for Wednesday is on ATLANTA plus the 3-4 points here tonight as Rob notes that game 1 home favorites, vs an opponent also playing their first game are 0-3 straight up since 2019 if the total is higher than 225 and they lost at home the last time these teams met. These home teams like Orlando lose by an average 11 points as a 4 point average favorite. The Hawks won all 4 meetings last season and 3 of them were by 12+ points each. The Hawks ripped off 3 straight wins to close out the preseason and we will back them tonight. GL Rob V-

The market is pricing Saturday’s Utah State-Texas State matchup for significant scoring, largely because of the Bobcats’ explosive offensive profile. That creates value on the Under because the matchup places an unusually heavy burden on Texas State to generate most of the points. Utah State is averaging only 14.5 points per game, while the Aggies’ relative defensive strength against the run matches up directly with the foundation of the Bobcats’ offense. Utah State ranks 134th nationally in overall success rate at 34.5%, including 133rd in passing success rate and 135th in rushing success rate. The Aggies average only 3.8 yards per rush and have scored just two rushing touchdowns. Their passing game has not provided much relief, completing 52.5% of its attempts while allowing 19 sacks and throwing 10 interceptions. The lack of efficiency has shown up on the scoreboard, as Utah State is averaging only 14.5 points per game and produced just 236 total yards in last week’s 17-16 win over Washington State. The Aggies averaged only 2.9 yards per rush in that victory. Utah State ranks 136th nationally at just 2.06 points per scoring opportunity according to the supplied data. In other words, even when the Aggies successfully move into scoring position, those drives have frequently failed to produce touchdowns.

The obvious threat to the Under is Texas State. The Bobcats are averaging 40.0 points and 562.3 yards per game, including 303.5 rushing yards per contest. They also arrive off a 66-27 victory over Colorado State. But the matchup favors the Under more than those surface numbers suggest. Texas State runs the football on 61.7% of its offensive plays and averages 6.1 yards per carry. Utah State’s defense is better equipped to defend the run, limiting opponents to a 39.0% rushing success rate and ranking 41st nationally in rushing PPA allowed at -0.02. The Aggies can limit early-down rushing success, forcing Texas State to generate more production through the passing game rather than consistently dictating the game with its preferred run-heavy approach. Tempo also threatens the Under, as Texas State operates at 22.38 adjusted seconds per play. creating additional possessions and more opportunities for points. However, the Bobcats slow to about 27.0 seconds per play when leading and are substantial favorites in this game, creating a favorable Under scenario: Texas State builds a lead, transitions toward its already run-heavy offensive identity, and slows the pace while Utah State struggles to score from the other end.

Inefficiency and turnovers create drive-killing potential

Utah State’s offensive profile also contains several characteristics that can end possessions without points. The Aggies have turned the ball over 13 times through six games, while recording only 98 first downs. Combined with their problems protecting the quarterback and producing efficient rushing plays, that creates multiple avenues for drives to stall before reaching scoring territory. The Texas State defense is far from dominant, but its 24.3% defensive stuff rate ranks 12th nationally.

My technical database supports a lower-scoring result.

• Teams coming off qualifying 300-plus-yard rushing performances have produced a 730-551 Under record (57.0%), generating +123.9 units and an 8.8% ROI;

• Home favorites averaging more than 35 points per game following a 50-plus-point performance have gone 324-251 to the Under (56.3%), generating +47.9 units and a 7.6% ROI;

Additional database systems include a 232-164 Under record (58.6%, +51.6 units) involving poor defensive teams following a 50-plus-point offensive performance, along with a 342-269 Under record (56.0%, +46.1 units) involving certain road underdogs coming off games in which they surrendered at least 49 points.

Texas State possesses an explosive offense, but the Bobcats’ run-heavy identity runs into one of the stronger areas of the Utah State defense. On the other side, Utah State ranks near the bottom of the country in both passing and rushing success rates, and averages just 14.5 points per game. If Texas State establishes the expected lead, its already run-heavy offense should become more deliberate, shortening the game and reducing second-half possession volume. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 24.

The Panthers are off an 8-3 home win over Seattle. They won their last road game by a score of 7-3. They've fired 76 shots (39 and 37) over their last two games. Overall, three of their last four games have produced a minimum of eight combined goals. While Ottawa games have been significantly lower-scoring, the Sens are going to need to score at least a few goals in order to compete with Florida. Three of last season's four meetings finished with six or more goals. Wednesday's game should do the same. Go with the over 5.5.

Sam Houston enters Wednesday night’s Conference USA matchup at just 1-5, but the Bearkats’ record appears to be creating value at home against a New Mexico State team that has done little to justify laying a full field goal on the road. The Aggies are only 2-4 and enter off a 22-3 loss at FIU, while the market has moved from approximately New Mexico State -2.5 to -3 with a low total around 44.5. Taking a full field goal becomes more valuable in lower-scoring games because fewer possessions and fewer expected points generally reduce the favorite’s opportunities to create separation. The Aggies have struggled to generate consistent quarterback play, as New Mexico State is completing only 55.4% of its passes and has thrown eight interceptions. That is a favorable matchup for a Sam Houston defense that allows only a 32.3% passing success rate, 50.0% completions, and 5.3 yards per attempt, according to the supplied metrics.

The Aggies’ recent quarterback performance adds to that concern. Against FIU, Trey Hedden completed just 2 of 8 passes for 19 yards, threw an interception, and lost a fumble, while Adam Damante finished 9 of 22 for 104 yards and threw an interception. When evaluating a short road favorite, that lack of reliable quarterback production matters. New Mexico State may not need explosive offense to win outright, but laying three requires the Aggies to create enough scoring margin to overcome a defense whose greatest strength directly attacks their biggest offensive weakness. New Mexico State’s rushing attack is considerably more dependable than its passing game, averaging 4.53 yards per carry and generating 857 rushing yards through six games. However, Sam Houston’s defense has allowed only +0.07 rushing PPA and owns a 21.4% defensive stuff rate. By limiting early-down rushing efficiency, New Mexico State will be forced into more obvious passing situations, where the matchup becomes more favorable for the home underdog. Turnovers further increase the favorite's volatility. New Mexico State has given the ball away 11 times through six games. In a game lined in the mid-40s, one turnover that creates a short field or eliminates a scoring opportunity can represent a significant percentage of the expected scoring.

Sam Houston’s offense is unquestionably the biggest risk to the handicap, as the Bearkats have scored only three points in each of their past two games, losing 35-3 to Liberty and 16-3 to Western Kentucky. Landyn Locke has also regressed after a promising start. Locke averaged 324 passing yards with nine touchdowns and one interception across his first three starts before falling to 148 passing yards per game with more interceptions than touchdowns over his next three. However, the season-long passing production provides more upside than those recent results suggest - Locke owns a 62.9% completion rate, 1,418 passing yards, and 11 touchdowns. Locke should succeed against a New Mexico State defense that allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.1% of their passes for 222.3 yards per game.

My technical database also supports Sam Houston State. College football underdogs of six points or fewer seeking revenge for an upset loss from the previous season have produced a 268-161 ATS record (62.5%), generating +90.9 units and a 19.3% ROI. Two additional revenge-based night-game systems have produced records of 214-157 ATS (57.7%, +41.3 units) and 96-55 ATS (63.6%, +35.5 units). A separate system fades teams that scored fewer than 13 combined points over their previous two games, with those teams going 58-90 ATS (39.2%). The fundamental case for Sam Houston rests on the matchup and price, while the above systems reinforce a position already supported by the Bearkats’ pass defense and New Mexico State’s offensive limitations. Take Sam Houston State as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, October 21.

Take the LA Lakers (#524)

Check out my ‘Free Play’ video for Lakers – Warriors and Suns - Blazers for Wednesday Night below.  Here’s a brief write-up for LA – Golden State:

 Steph Curry will turn 39 years old this season.  3/5 of the projected Warriors starting lineup (Kristaps Porzingas, Moses Moody and Jimmy Butler) will be sitting on the sidelines in street clothes on opening night, leaving $90 million on the payroll unavailable. Brandon Podziemski has a bad back, no sure thing to suit up either. That’s bad news on opening night against a hungry, focused Lakers team that has employed a ‘we can get stops this year’ defensive mentality throughout training camp. Chalk worth laying!  Take the Lakers.