Sports Picks

England Championship

(200329) Cardiff at (200330) Birmingham City

Both of these teams have been playing to high-scoring games lately.  Birmingham has played to four straight Overs in all competitions and seven of their last nine including four straight at home.  Cardiff played to a 0-0 draw against Swansea on Monday but finished Over the total in three straight games prior to that and six of their last eight.  On the road this season, Cariff has the highest goals per game average in the league at 3.5 per game with a 10-4 O-U record thanks to conceding a league-high 30 goals in 14 matches.

Cardiff already won the reverse fixture 4-2 at home back in November in a match that saw 37 goals attempts with 12 on target.  My numbers are predicting at least ten shots on goal here which is more than enough on average to finish Over this total.

*1 UNIT* TAKE OVER 2.5 GOALS

Line Parameter: Play good to 2.75, but pay up to -125 to get 2.5

England Championship

(200333) Barnsley at (200334) Bristol City

Bristol City hasn't been overly impressive this season at 11-8-8 with a 41:40 goal differential, but Barnsley has not been good and is currently in the bottom three and in danger of being relegated.  They own just a 5-9-13 record and 35:50 goal differential and have been particularly bad on the road at 1-3-9 with an 11:24 differential.

Most importantly, they have a terrible record traveling to Bristol City.  They have not won this century in 14 visits as Bristol City has ten wins along with four draws.  I don't see a road win here and this is a very good price to take a shot on the home win.

*1 UNIT* TAKE BRISTOL CITY TO WIN (ML or -0.5)

Line Parameter: Play good at any + number.  You can also play it safer at take -0.25 to protect half your bet against the draw.

England Championship

(200205) Stoke City at (200206) West Brom

West Brom only has a 12-15 O-U record this season scoring a league-high 50 goals, but have played well defensively, conceding just 30 thru 27 matches.  However at home, they own an 8-5 O-U record with a 3.8 total gpg avg with a 30:19 goal differential.  Stoke has a 17-10 O-U record this year including 8-5 on the road with three out of their last four finishing Over this total.

My numbers have this total set at 3.25 based on expected shots on goal and conversion rates for both teams so there is great value here.  West Brom is the #1 team in the league in terms of average shots on goal per game at home, averaging 5.6 compared to the league average of 4.3.

*1 UNIT* TAKE OVER 2.5 GOALS

Line Parameter: Play good at 2.5 up to -125, drop to a half-unit at 2.75