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KIA Tigers vs LG Twins Under 8.5:

• Naile is the biggest Under driver. He has been the more reliable starter overall and gives KIA a good chance to hold LG to 2–3 runs rather than allowing a big inning early.

• KIA’s bullpen supports the Under. This is important because the handicap does not depend only on the starters. If Naile gets through 5–6 innings in good shape, KIA has the relief pitching to protect a low-scoring game..

• LG’s offense is the weaker side of the matchup. Compared with KIA, LG has less overall power and less recent offensive explosiveness, making it easier to build an Under case around LG staying below 4 runs.

• Tolhurst has improved recently. His season numbers against KIA are concerning, but his most recent starts have been better. The Under does not require him to dominate; something like 5 innings and 2–3 runs allowed is enough.

• Postseason Game 1 should favor tighter pitching decisions. Managers are generally quicker to use their better relievers, and there is less reason to leave a struggling pitcher in long enough for a 5- or 6-run inning to develop.

• Both teams have meaningful bullpen options. That reduces the chance of the game turning into a late-inning bullpen collapse after a relatively low-scoring first five.

• The projected scoring distribution fits 8.5 well. Scores such as 4-2, 4-3, 5-2 and 5-3 all cash the Under. My center projection is still around KIA 4–5, LG 3–4.

• 8.5 is much better than 8. That extra half-run is significant. A final like 5-3 or 4-4 through nine before extras stays Under 8.5, whereas Under 8 would only push at exactly eight.

• LG team total Under 4.5 and full-game Under 8.5 point in the same direction. The strongest part of the Under thesis is that LG is unlikely to contribute enough offense to force the game into double digits.

• At +100, the price is attractive. You only need a 50% win rate to break even, while I would put the Under 8.5 roughly in the 56–58% range.

Take Chicago (#269) on the Moneyline

The ‘Daily Double’ free picks video below offers my take for Eagles - Panthers and Bears - Falcons this week.  Here’s a brief write-up for Atlanta - Chicago.

I understand that Caleb Williams may not play for the Bears this week, very questionable as I write this on Friday.  That said, I want NO part of Atlanta on Sunday, and I’m more than willing to lock in at this near pick em price with Ben Johnson’s team now —if Williams does suit up, we’ll be getting the best of the number and if he doesn’t,there’s still reason to think Atlanta is likely to be a little flat this week after three straight ‘max intensity national TV games’ ended with an exhausting OT loss to Baltimore last Sunday. In this near pick ‘em pointspread range, I’ll use a moneyline bet, asking for only the SU win, no margin needed.  Take the Bears on the Moneyline

App State vs Coastal Carolina Under 48.5 lines up because both teams have been far more defensive‑leaning against comparable competition, and neither offense has shown the consistency needed to push this total higher. App State has allowed just 14.5 ppg in games against non‑Power 4 opponents, and Coastal Carolina has allowed only 23 ppg in its five games against non‑Power 4 teams. Offensively, both sides have been modest against FBS foes — App State averaging 21.8 ppg and Coastal at 21.2 ppg — which fits a slower, lower‑scoring profile. App State’s defense has been solid overall, allowing just 19.8 ppg and ranking 50th in total defense, while Coastal’s defense, despite giving up yardage, still allows only 24.3 ppg. The matchup also features two offenses that run the ball more than they pass, which shortens games and limits possessions. With both teams showing clear Under tendencies against similar opponents and neither offense built for sustained scoring, Under 48.5 is well supported.

Rutgers is a 5.5-point road underdog against Maryland, but the Scarlet Knights have several meaningful matchup advantages, especially with an explosive passing attack poised to stress a vulnerable Terrapins defense. Rutgers ranks 18th nationally in offensive explosiveness (1.34), well ahead of Maryland at 61st (1.25), while the Scarlet Knights’ passing attack ranks second nationally in explosiveness (1.93) and generates an impressive 8.9 yards per attempt. That big-play ability creates a favorable matchup against a Maryland secondary allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt while ranking 102nd in passing success rate allowed (43.6%) and 128th in passing touchdowns surrendered (13). The concerns extend beyond Maryland’s secondary. The Terrapins rank 136th nationally in points allowed per scoring opportunity (4.79), 86th in defensive success rate (41.8%), and 118th in average starting field position allowed. Rutgers should also attack those weaknesses before Maryland can dictate obvious passing situations. The Scarlet Knights throw on 51.4% of first downs, the 24th-highest rate nationally, giving them opportunities to generate explosive plays when the defense must still account for both the run and pass.

Maryland’s offensive inefficiency strengthens the case for taking the points. The Terrapins rank 106th nationally in offensive success rate (39.8%), 115th in points per scoring opportunity (3.05), and 127th in passing PPA (-0.01). Despite throwing on 56% of their offensive snaps, they average only 6.3 yards per pass attempt, ranking 122nd nationally, with a 40.0% passing success rate, 98th. Rutgers has been vulnerable defensively, but its ability to create takeaways could be an equalizer against a Maryland passing attack that has already thrown six interceptions. More importantly, the Scarlet Knights hold a substantial advantage in finishing drives, averaging 4.07 points per scoring opportunity compared with just 3.05 for Maryland. That gap becomes particularly important in a game where Rutgers is catching more than a field goal. The Scarlet Knights’ 1-4 record may also undersell their underlying performance. Rutgers has generated 2.7 expected wins, suggesting its results have lagged its overall level of play. Maryland enters at 2-4, but its offensive efficiency metrics provide considerably less reason to expect significant improvement.

My technical database further supports Rutgers in this spot. Conference road underdogs with a rest advantage coming off an ATS loss are 274-200 ATS (57.8%) since 1989, producing +54.0 units. A related system involving opponents with superior winning percentages is 311-232 ATS (57.3%), while another subset of conference road underdogs coming off an ATS loss has produced a 233-139 ATS record (62.6%) and +80.1 units since 1989. Road underdogs of fewer than seven points with three wins or fewer have also gone 869-716 ATS (55.0%), generating +81.4 units since 2007. Ultimately, the matchup makes Rutgers attractive at +5.5. The Scarlet Knights have the more explosive passing attack, a clear advantage in finishing scoring opportunities, and face a Maryland offense that has struggled to sustain drives or generate efficient production through the air. Combine those matchup advantages with the favorable historical profile for road conference underdogs, and Rutgers +5.5 offers value with enough offensive upside to stay inside the number and potentially win outright.

The Avalanche are averaging a whopping 4.43 goals per game, tied with Edmonton for the most in the NHL. The Penguins are averaging a healthy 3.43 goals per game, tied for 10th with Washington. The Avs and Pens have faced each other four times since the beginning of 2024. Four of those five games produced eight or more goals. I expect them to combine for at least seven again this evening. Go with the over.