Rob Vinciletti
Event: (791) Liberty at (792) Nevada: Spread
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 21, 2026 9:00 PM EDT
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Nevada -7.5 (-110)
BIG SATURDAY CARD UP with an EXECUTIVE LEVEL TIER 1 side headlining a 4 Game Tournament Package that has a TOP Round 2 TRIPLE System Side and TOTAL. There is also late season NBA. N.I.T Comp play below.
The Saturday Comp play comes in round 2 N.I.T Action on Nevada at 9 eastern. Liberty comes in off an upset win in round 1 but these teams in tonights situation likely start packing for a return trip home. Round 2 dogs of 6 or more that are off a dog win at +3 or more are 1-7 straight up and to the spread if they lost the game prior to the upset win as a favorite and the home team won a round 1 game as a favorite. Nevada is 16-2 at home and took out Murray St in round 1 by 14. Liberty first overall on Conference USA rebounded from a round 1 upset loss in Conference tournament action by taking out George Mason on the road but this is a much tougher task. Play on Nevada. GL Rob V-
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Tokyo Brandon
Event: Rakuten Golden Eagles at Yomiuri Giants
Sport/League: JNPB (See all free Japan NPB picks)
Date/Time: March 21, 2026 1:00 AM EDT
Free Japan NPB Pick Today: Yomiuri Giants -110
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Japanese Spring games AVAILABLE ON DRAFTKINGS!
Spencer Howard is confirmed for Yomiuri, but I could not verify Rakuten’s official announced starter from the accessible sources but it looks like Kose Itsuki. This is open-season play at Tokyo Dome on March 21, with the 2026 preseason ending March 22 and the regular season opening March 27, so I’m assuming slightly shorter starter leashes than a regular-season NPB game.
Outline of reasoning and calculations
1) Starting-point data I weighted most
Giants at Tokyo Dome in 2025: 210 runs scored, 174 allowed in 64 games = 3.28 RS / 2.72 RA per game.
Giants home in March/April 2025: 49 RS, 30 RA in 13 games = 3.77 / 2.31.
Giants home on Saturdays in 2025: 54 RS, 34 RA in 14 games = 3.86 / 2.43.
Rakuten away in 2025: 222 RS, 278 RA in 71 games = 3.13 / 3.92.
Rakuten away in March/April 2025: 42 RS, 36 RA in 13 games = 3.23 / 2.77.
Rakuten away on Saturdays in 2025: 33 RS, 64 RA in 13 games = 2.54 / 4.92.
Rakuten at Tokyo Dome in 2025: 10 RS, 17 RA in 5 games = 2.00 / 3.40.
2) Baseline run model
Giants scoring baseline
Weighted blend of Giants home/Tokyo Dome/March-Saturday offense plus Rakuten road/Tokyo Dome prevention = 3.6575 runs.Rakuten scoring baseline
Weighted blend of Rakuten road/March-Saturday offense plus Giants home/Tokyo Dome prevention = 2.698 runs.
3) Starter layer
Howard: 2025 official NPB line was 9 appearances, 48.2 IP, 42 H, 11 BB, 36 K, 2.22 ERA. He is confirmed to start this game and is facing his former team Rakuten, which means there is no real 2025 official batter-vs-pitcher game sample of Howard against the current Rakuten lineup to lean on; that “familiarity” is mostly from being former teammates, not opponent BvP data.
Kose probable-starter scenario: 2025 line was 19 G, 18 GS, 107.0 IP, 118 H, 27 BB, 76 K, 3.70 ERA. His last verified spring outing was March 15 vs Chunichi: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 5 K, 2 BB, 4 ER. Because Rakuten’s official 3/21 starter was not cleanly verifiable, I treated Kose as the most plausible fit but not as confirmed.
4) Bullpen layer
Historically, both clubs’ March/April bullpens were solid in 2025: Giants relievers had a 2.55 ERA, Rakuten relievers a 2.76 ERA. But the March 20 exhibition matters: Rakuten used 5 relievers after Shoji, while Yomiuri used 4 relievers after Takemaru. That pushes my full-game total a little higher than the first-5 total, especially late if Howard exits after 4-5 innings.
5) Lineup/form layer
I used the March 20 starters as the likely lineup core because I could not verify official March 21 lineups from the accessible sources. On March 20, Yomiuri started Cabbage, Matsumoto Go, Urata, Dalbec, Kishida, Nakayama, Sakamoto, Masuda, with the pitcher batting 9th; Rakuten started Nakajima, Kurokawa, Voit, McCusker, Murabayashi, Asamura, Muneyama, Gonzalez, Ota with the DH. In that same game, Asamura homered again, while Yomiuri’s preseason form indicators were strong for Kishida (.583) and Masuda (.667). Through March 20, the Giants were 9-4-1 in open-season play and Rakuten 3-9-5.
6) Head-to-head / park / travel adjustments
The 2025 Yomiuri-Rakuten Tokyo Dome set was low scoring: Rakuten won 2-0 on June 6 behind Howard, then Yomiuri won 2-0 on June 7 and 5-0 on June 8. That supports a modest total again. Tokyo Dome removes almost all meaningful outdoor-weather effect. Rakuten’s schedule also shows a Belluna-to-Tokyo road swing (3/17-18 at Belluna, 3/20-22 at Tokyo Dome), which is some travel but not a major fatigue spike. Because Yomiuri is home, there is also a small chance the bottom of the 9th is not played, which trims their full-game offensive ceiling slightly.
7) Final numerical adjustments
Giants baseline: 3.66
Rakuten baseline: 2.70
Projected score
Segment | Rakuten | giant |
|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 1.2 | 2.1 |
Full game | 2.7 | 3.5 |
Projected starting-pitcher game lines
Pitcher | Team | IP | IS | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Itsuki | Rakuten | 4 0/3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Spencer Howard | giant | 4 2/3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
Projected hitter lines
These are projected box-score-style medians for the likely starting lineups based on March 20 usage, so they will not sum perfectly to the decimal score projection above.
Giants
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cabbage | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matsumoto Tsuyoshi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Shunsuke Urata | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Dalbeck | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Yukinori Kishida | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Zhongshan Lidu | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Hayato Sakamoto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Riku Masuda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Howard (P) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Rakuten
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Daisuke Nakajima | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Kurokawa Fumiya | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Voight | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
McCusker | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kazuki Murabayashi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Hideto Asamura | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Rui Muneyama | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Gonzalez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Hikaru Ota | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | Projected win % | Projected fair odds | DraftKings today |
|---|---|---|---|
giant | 61.7% | -161 | -110 |
Rakuten | 38.3% | +161 | +120 |
Bottom line
1st 5: Giants 2.1 – 1.2
Full game: Giants 3.5 – 2.7
Lean: Giants, with the bigger edge in the first 5 because Howard’s confirmed start is the cleanest pitcher input in the matchup.
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Ben Burns
Event: (785) High Point at (786) Arkansas: Total
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 21, 2026 9:45 PM EDT
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Total Over 168.5 (-110)
This O/U line is high -- but likely not high enough. High Point just scored 83 against Wisconsin, allowing 82. The Panthers averaged a whopping 93.8 ppg in the regular season. They've played 34 games and they scored more than 70 every time. Now the Panthers take on an Arkansas team which also averaged more than 90 ppg during the season. The Razorbacks just dropped 97 on Hawaii in the opening rd, the sixth straight time they've scored more than 80. Expect a fast-paced high-scoring affair. *good up to 170
Ben Burns is the #1 College Basketball Handicapper of All-Time. He enters Friday with a perfect 4-0 tournament record and on a 12-2 CBB run overall, part of a longer-term +314 unit hoops heater.
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