Oskeim Sports
Event: (635) Tennessee at (636) Michigan: Spread
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: March 29, 2026 2:15 PM EDT
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Tennessee +7.5 (-104)
Michigan possesses an explosive offense ranked 11th in the nation in PPG (87.5), 6th in FG% (51.1%), and 48th in 3PT% (36.9). The Wolverines enter off back-to-back SU and ATS wins over St. Louis (95-72) and Alabama (90-77), but teams averaging greater than 85.4 points per game coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins are just 170-236-9 ATS (41.9%), provided they have a Pace of at least 68.4. This situation has been 107-176-5 ATS (37.8%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. The Wolverines’ attack ranks 32nd in the country in Pace (71.5), which is also significant because fast-paced teams like Michigan are 126-164-8 ATS (43.4%) in the NCAA tournament, including 64-87 ATS (42.4%) since 2020. Conversely, Tennessee plays at a more methodical tempo, ranking 229th in Pace (67.2), and historically, slower-paced teams have had more success in the NCAA tournament from a point-spread perspective. Specifically, fast-paced NCAA tournament teams like Michigan are 94-132-4 ATS (41.6%) versus slow-paced teams like the Volunteers, including 47-70 ATS (40.2%) since 2019. Since 2001, #1-#3 seeds in the Elite Eight have struggled against lower-seeded opponents, going 8-21-2 ATS (27.6%). Finally, from the Round of 32 forward, Big Ten Conference schools are just 27-42 SU and 28-39-2 ATS (41.6%) since 2017. Grab the inflated number with the Tennessee Volunteers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, March 29.
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