Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Take #110 Seahawks vs Broncos Under

Seattle heads into Denver looking to bounce back from a turnover-filled loss to San Francisco, but this Thursday night matchup sets up as a defensive battle. Both teams enter at 3-2, and Seattle's defense has been one of the league's most effective units, ranking second in the NFL in EPA per play allowed. Against a Denver offense ranked 24th in offensive EPA per play, the Seahawks have the potential to make scoring difficult throughout the contest.

Denver's offensive inconsistency is a major factor supporting the under. Despite rallying for a comeback victory against the Chargers, the Broncos struggled to generate consistent production for much of that game. Their offense benefited from defensive takeaways before finding momentum late, and replicating that success against a Seattle defense capable of applying pressure and disrupting passing lanes could be a challenge.

The short week also creates concerns for Denver's offensive rhythm. Seattle has the defensive personnel to pressure the quarterback, force difficult decisions, and limit explosive plays. If the Seahawks can keep Denver behind the chains and prevent sustained drives, the Broncos could have trouble putting points on the board. Seattle's own turnover issues last week are another reason to expect a more conservative approach as the team looks to clean up mistakes.

While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been outstanding, with 603 receiving yards and seven touchdowns through five weeks, Denver's defensive injuries could influence how Seattle attacks this matchup. Even if the Seahawks find success through the air, a strong defensive performance and limited scoring opportunities from Denver could help keep the total in check. On a short week, offensive consistency may be harder to come by for both teams.

With Seattle's defensive strength, Denver's offensive struggles, and the potential for a tightly contested Thursday night game, the under offers an appealing angle. Expect the Seahawks to focus on correcting their mistakes while making life difficult for Denver's offense, creating a game where every possession matters.

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This game was a 6-1 game last season and this rematch game should see goals from both sides. In fact, three of their last four games went over 7 combined goals in those meetings too. The Leafs have a better offense over their defense and goaltending, so look for Toronto, who are playing great hockey with their win recently over Colorado, to get a few by the Mammoth. Utah in turn, has the young offensive talent to score on Toronto as well. Utah has gone over in four of their last five games at home while the Leafs are 8-1-3 to the over versus Central opponents and 10-4 to the over versus non conference teams going back to last season. Utah is also 3-0 to the over this season when playing with 2 days rest. Look for a higher scoring game.

Bet: take over the total of 6.5 goals.

Massachusetts offers an attractive opportunity as a 6.5-point road underdog against Buffalo, with the Minutemen possessing significant advantages in offensive efficiency and ball security. Despite their 4-2 record, the Minutemen have played the nation's weakest schedule, making their statistical production difficult to evaluate in isolation. Nevertheless, Massachusetts ranks 66th nationally in offensive success rate (44.0%) compared with Buffalo's 130th-place ranking (34.8%), a substantial efficiency advantage that should translate into more manageable down-and-distance situations. The Minutemen also rank 36th nationally in passing PPA (+0.35), while Buffalo's passing offense ranks 118th (+0.05) and generates just 5.2 yards per attempt, the worst mark nationally. Massachusetts completes 69.8% of its passes, ranking 17th nationally, and has thrown only two interceptions, a meaningful advantage over a Buffalo offense that completes just 51.6% of its attempts. Pro Football Focus (PFF) reinforces that quarterback disparity, with the Minutemen holding decisive advantages in clean-pocket passer rating (110.4 to 77.3), passer rating under pressure (93.1 to 57.3), and turnover-worthy play percentage (1.69% to 2.86%).

UMass Quarterback Injuries/Depth

After dropping consecutive MAC games, the Minutemen face an increasingly difficult injury situation heading into Saturday’s trip to Buffalo. Starter Pop Watson missed Saturday’s game and is “unlikely” to return against Buffalo, while true freshman Aedan McCarthy, who made his first career start against Miami, suffered an injury that is expected to keep him sidelined as well. “We’ll see if Pop can go,” head coach Joe Harasymiak said. “I don’t know that. It’ll depend on later in the week, his body and how it responds to everything we’re doing. Probably unlikely for the most part.”

Harasymiak was also pessimistic about McCarthy’s availability. “Aedan is more than likely out with his injury. So we got the two-headed monster right now of Logan (Inagawa) and Ty (McCutcheon) that got to go in there.” Inagawa completed all six of his passes for 83 yards after replacing McCarthy against Miami, including a 21-yard touchdown to Max Dowling.

The rushing matchup also favors Massachusetts, which averages 4.9 yards per carry and ranks 65th nationally in rushing success rate (44.9%), compared with Buffalo's 3.7 yards per attempt and 126th-place rushing success rate (35.5%). Buffalo's defensive front has struggled to disrupt opposing rushing attacks, ranking 103rd nationally in stuff rate (16.4%) and allowing 3.09 line yards, creating opportunities for Massachusetts to sustain possessions and avoid obvious passing situations. The Minutemen also rank 19th nationally in defensive points allowed per scoring opportunity (2.75), while Buffalo ranks 61st (3.23). Turnover differential provides another important advantage, as Massachusetts has a +7 margin, ranking eighth nationally, compared with Buffalo's -4 margin, ranking 119th. Massachusetts has also forced 11 turnovers while committing only four, whereas Buffalo has forced just five and committed nine, a disparity that could prove decisive in a matchup with a relatively low total. The Minutemen's deliberate offensive tempo, averaging 29.83 seconds per play compared with Buffalo's 24.45 seconds, should limit possessions and increase the value of each possession.

My technical database also supports Massachusetts, as road underdogs of 3 to 16 points in games with totals between 41 and 46 points have produced a 140-81 ATS record (63.3%; +50.9 units) since 1989. A broader system targeting unranked road underdogs averaging at least 125 rushing yards per game with totals of 47 points or fewer has generated a 488-379 ATS record (56.3%; +71.1 units) since 1991. Take the Massachusetts Minutemen as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 17.

Detroit qualifies for a profitable NHL scheduling system favoring home teams with more rest than their opponents.

Since 2023, the system has compiled a 684-463 record (59.6%), generating a +4.1% ROI. Historical units won have not yet been verified.

Detroit has two days of rest compared with none for New Jersey. The computer also projects a 3.0-2.7 Detroit victory, providing additional support.

908 Cleveland at Tampa Bay

Parker Messick has been a money maker on the road when not facing divisional rivals. The White Sox had seen him five times and made him look human. That shouldn't be the case in this one.

Freddy Peralta has been a totally different pitcher since the trade to Tampa. We expect him to keep the Cleveland bats in check.

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