Sports Picks

This is the juiciest of sandwiches for the road team in this one. The Eagles expended a ton to beat the Giants at home in overtime on Monday Night Football. Along the way, they lost Alshon Jeffery and Lane Johnson who both won't be available for Sunday. Boston Scott, Greg Ward and Josh Perkins are the ones making catches late in the game. They've also got the Cowboys at home in what will be a huge game in terms of deciding who will win the NFC East next week. Washington has actually played better as of late winning two of their last three with the loss coming by five at Green Bay. The Redskins defense has cut Josh Norman out of the lineup and the secondary has improved. The offense still isn't very good with Dwayne Haskins under center, but if they can get AP going then they'll reduce the amount of possessions and shorten the game. Way back in week one, Philly won 32-27 over the Skins in a game that saw Washington blow a 20-7 halftime lead. Give me the home team here. 

 If there ever was a flat spot psychologically for an NFL team this is the one, with San Fran coming off emotionally draining battles vs. Green Bay at home than hard-fought 60- minutes wars at Baltimore & New Orleans. And, with rematch with hated L.A. Rams on deck, the 49ers are excused if they do not reach max intensity vs. 4- 9 Atlanta, which is where S.F. HC Kyle Shanahan served as the o.c. before taking over in the Bay Area. However, the Falcons, who’re playing hard to save HC Dan Quinn’s job, have been competitive in virtually every game since late October, including back-to-back road upsets at New Orleans & Carolina in November. And with Atlanta’s star QB Matt Ryan (300+ YP in 3 of last 4Gs; 10th NFL QB to reach 50,000 career passing yds.!) still winging it with the best of them & with RB Devote Freeman providing infantry support, believe the Falcons can stay within earshot at Levi’s Stadium, where the 49ers (0-2-1 as DD chalk overall) have covered only 3 of 6 TY. 
Atlanta 25 - SAN FRANCISCO 27

So we got a Buffalo Bulls team that really sturggled early on in the season but that was to be expected since they lost their quarterback and leading receiver to the NFL, not to mention that their second-leading receiver transferred out of the program. Despite those losses, they found their form at the end of this season and are peaking at the right time.

Charlotte comes into this game fresh off the first winning season in school history but I have no idea what to expect from a team who's never been to a Bowl game. This is a bad matchup for Charlotte as well. They don't match-up well defensively in this game. The defense ranks No. 99 in yards per play, and they are worse at stopping the run than the pass. Buffalo brings a pair of 1,000-plus yard rushers into this game, which is one of the best rushing attacks in the country. The Bulls also have a very strong offensive line.

This game will be won by Buffalo rather easiy so lay under the TD and watch the Bulls get it done.

Jim McElwain has done quite an excellent job so far with CMU and I'm sure his boys are incredibly dejected crapping down their legs with a chance to win the MAC and favored and with the best record heading into the title game and the resurgent Miami squad whipping them to deny them a title and spot in a bowl on January 6th against Louisiana.  Instead they play next week in one of the first (public perception = worst) bowl games.

The opponent will be SDSU and the anemic offense suffocating defense plan to win games...in fact down the stretch the final scores were... 13-17, 17-7, 11-14, 13-3 in the month of November on...so basically what we're getting at is a WILD contrast in styles....as CMU's final 2 wins to end the regular season saw them score themselves as many points as were scored TOTAL in SDSU's final 4 games!

San Diego State simply doesn't show up a whole ton in these games if they aren't incredibly meaningful...and their offense isn't strong enough to sustain any decent and potentially innovative offense....i.e. the Chippewas.  CMU ranks near the top in yards per rush and solid in yards per pass while also being decent on defense....whereas the Aztecs are near the rock bottom in ALL offensive categories and rely on defense and NOT turning it over and giving the opponent solid starting position.

This for me, comes down to the more all around team led by a coach who might like where he is, but certainly has aspirations to go the Petrino route at WKU and get himself a BIG job again and prove his worth....a dud here would be the antithesis.of such a goal.

I think Liberty is a very live dog in this one. First bowl as a member of the FBS in just two years since joining. Buckshot Calvert + Antonio Gandy Golden is a potent combo better than anything Georgia Southern will have seen in the Sun Belt. Troy and Arkansas State were able to slice them up through the air.

Extra time to prepare for the triple option helps as well. The Flames defense needs some work, but getting almost a touchdown here, I'll take the underdog who will have the crowd advantage as well. Liberty will travel.

Liberty 16-7 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons.

 The 2019 Cure Bowl in Orlando pits first-time entry Liberty against the Sun Belt's Eagles of Georgia Southern. The Flames reach their first ever FBS Bowl game after a 7-5 record under Head Coach Hugh Freeze, who was given a contract extension last week. His offense is led by QB Stephen Calvert, who threw for 3,393 yards and 26 touchdowns this season. Georgia Southern will counter with their Option rush attack, which is spearheaded by RB Wesley Kennedy III, who ran for 760 yards for 10 TD's on 6.9 yards/carry. This 9th ranked rush offense should be able to move the ball against the Flames 99th ranked rushing defense, but this Liberty pass attack will be able to get some points and look for Mr. Freeze to open up the playbook and get some trick plays rolling in this contest. At a +4.5 price, I like the Liberty Flames to cover and possibly upset Georgia Southern in their Bowl debut in Orlando.

 3% Take Appalachian State (#218)

Both teams have coaching issues heading into their bowl games, with App State’s Eli Drinkwitz taking the Missouri job already and UAB’s Bill Clark expected to be interviewed for several openings.  So I’m not going to focus too much on the coaching here, although it is worth noting that App State won this bowl game 45-13 last year with an interim head coach; their fourth straight bowl win over the last four seasons.  UAB played three ‘step-up-in-class’ games this year, losing those games 30-7, 37-2 and 49-6.  I’m not convinced that this one will be any different from the previous three…..  Take Appalachian State.

Teddy enters bowl season on a 9-4 (69%) run to close out last year; cashing at a 60% clip over the past four bowl seasons – he’s a proven profit producer at this time of the year!  Get onboard with a bowl package to get every single college football release between now and the national championship Game on January 13^th!  Don’t miss out…..

Louisiana Tech +6.5 vs Miami

No bowl team is stumbling into bowl season more than Miami. The Canes dropped their last two games as more than touchdown favorites to each FIU and Duke. The point spread was off by a combined 45 negative points on the Canes, pointing towards them being drastically overpriced. Manny Diaz has his work cut out for him, having to prepare a bunch of South Florida kids to be motivated throughout bowl practices to prepare for a Conference USA opponent in Shreveport Louisiana. Louisiana Tech is in Ruston, Louisiana. Which is an easy straight trip down I-20 for the Bulldog faithful. Take the points with La Tech, also might want to sprinkle a little on the money line for La Tech to win outright. Almost forgot an important aspect to the bowl game handicap, Skip Holtz is 6-0 his last six bowl games as a head coach and Manny Diaz is a first year HC. La Tech +6.5 is the play.

WASHINGTON STATE vs. AIR FORCE @ Phoenix, AZ

Washington State finished 6-6 (4-8 ATS) after a promising 3-0 start and #19 ranking in the polls. After a 67-63 home loss to UCLA as -18 point home favorites on September 21^st, things started to unravel, and the Cougars finished 3-6 down the stretch. Wazzu has a prolific offense that ranks #6 in total offense (516 ypg) and #11 in scoring (39 ppg), but the defense is just as bad as the offense is good, ranking #113 in total “D” (456 ypg) and 94^th in scoring defense (31.4 ppg). Air Force had a great season, finishing 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS. The Falcons finished out the year on a 7-0 run (5-2 ATS) after a devastating 34-25 loss at Navy on October 5^th. Air Force was solid on both sides of the ball this year, ranking #3 in total rushing (274 ypg) and #16 in total defense (315 ypg). Air Force is 21-7 ATS vs. non-conference teams and 5-2 ATS in its last seven bowl games. Washington State is 15-7 ATS as a dog, but the Cougars are on a current 4-10 ATS run overall, 4-6 ATS in its last 10 bowl games and 7-14 ATS in neutral site games. WSU ranks 129^th out of 130 teams in rushing with a paltry 72 rush ypg making Air Force a good candidate to outrush the Cougars by a 2-to-1 margin or more. This season, teams that outrushed their opponent by a 2-to-1 margin or more were an amazing 301-109 ATS (73%)!! One of the biggest factors in ALL bowl games is something that can’t be determined by any form of handicapping, stats, computer algorithms, etc., and that’s trying to figure out which teams show up or not in their bowl game. That’s why backing a disciplined team like Air Force makes sense. As with all military academies, they give 100% until the final whistle no matter the score. They will show up and be ready.

Cotton Bowl 

I do not see this line staying at 7 very long. Yes i know Memphis ranked 8th in yards per play and Brady White is averaging 10 yards per throw. We saw how weak this Penn State's secondary is but we need to remember PSU is in the Big 10 and James Franklin has plenty of time to get this defense ready to defend the big plays. Without that loss to the Golden Gophers this PSU team could be playing in the playoff. Everything points to this game being a shootout and even though PSU's ability to give up the big play has been their achielles heel i dont think Memphis can consistantly put up points to keep up with them for 4 quarters. 

Play is good up to PSU -9 

Through 12 regular season games, Louisville has clearly shown what type of opponent they can be competive with and which type they can't. Physical teams especially on the defensive side have crushed the Cardinals this year and although they're not the 2018 version, Mississippi State has the characteristics necessary to win and cover this game. Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami (Fla) and Kentucky all took Louisville behind the woodshed winning those games by 18, 35, 25 & 32 points respectively. MSU has allowed just 390 total yards per game this season and actually held #1 ranked LSU to their season low 413. Lousivlle dual threat QB Micale Cunningham is an explosive weapon but the Bulldogs showed they have the ability to contain that style after limiting Ole Miss QB John Rhys Plumlee on Thanksgiving night. Motivational aspect works for Starkville side here too as redemption for HC Joe Moorhead's initial Bowl appearance went array in their 27-22 loss to Iowa as -7 point favorites. Youthful U of L squad more likely on the "happy to be here" side and Nashville can be a distraction. Respect Cardinals 1st year HC Scott Satterfieldand the accomplishment but like the way Mississippi State closed down the stretch more. Feel the fundamentals plus situational & motivational angles all favor MSU here at this -3 number which appears to have some real value. Recommendation: Mississippi State -3

New Mexico Lobos under 4.5 (-130) (Bet Online)

New Mexico has fallen on tough times under Bob Davie. The former Notre Dame head coach enters his 8thyear in Albuquerque. He started off strong, but has since had to deal with budget cuts, low recruiting rankings and attrition of top assistance, not to mention Davie himself was suspended for 30 days this offseason due to a criminal investigation involving the football program. He is having to replace both his offensive and defensive coordinators in a last gasp effort to hold on to his job in 2019.

New Mexico enters the season on a 0-6 run to end the 2018 campaign, the losses averaging by more than 25 points per game. If that was not enough of a red flag, the Lobos were outgained -276 yards per game in the back half of the season. These metrics point towards a team that quit and when placing bets on a season win total under 4.5, a team that has already proved “quitting” is an option is a prime candidate to repeat the past poor efforts. The top offensive skill position player Marcus Hayes (1stteam Mt West) transferred out. The offensive line losing (2ndteam MT West) Aaron Jenkins. Plus, the defensive line which let up over 215 yards per game on the ground losses Codey Baker who had 17 tackles for loss.

The Lobos do start off with a FCS opponent before heading to South Bend to take on Notre Dame. Unfortunately, the FCS opponent is a top 25 FCS ranked Sam Houston St. After Notre Dame, the prime spot for the Lobos to rack up wins is in the middle of their schedule, but they are terrible travel spots, @Liberty (In Virginia) then the very next week @San Jose St on the other side of the country. After October 11th,it gets real bleak to find wins’ vs stiffer Mt. West competition, where the Lobos were outgained by -180 in conference play last year. I strongly recommend an under bet on the New Mexico Lobos in likely Bob Davie’s final year as a FBS head coach.

Take Michigan +7 vs Alabama in Citrus Bowl. Bowl game victors are not always the best team, in many cases it is the team that wants to be there more. I see that happening here with Alabama not being too interested in this game. The Tide has played in the last four national championship games and certainly expected to be in the playoff again this year. Two losses ended those hopes and now they are relegated to the Citrus Bowl against an opponent that probably doesnt interest them. The last two times the Tide played in a bowl game that wasnt in the CFP, they lost as big favorites to Ohio State and Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl in 2013 and 2014. The Big Ten actually has a good history against the SEC in bowl games, and an outright upset wouldnt shock me here. Take Michigan and the points.

Georgia sitting at 11-2 SEC East champions and heading back to New Orleans to take on the Baylor Bears. This is a Sugar Bowl matchup pinning the runner up in both the SEC and the Big 12. Each team is going to have to deal with a little bit of uncertainty when it comes to which players are going to be on the field. This is something that makes it a bit tricky for sports bettors who are looking to get down on early lines for bowl games. Although, I do believe there is some value with Georgia. Strength of schedule alone, heavily favors the Bulldogs. Baylor only having played one top 20 team in the country, winning many close hard fought games throughout the conference schedule, but ultimatly losing both times to Oklahoma. Now having to face a battle tested 11 win SEC team is a tough ask for the Bears. Add on the fact it is unclear if starting QB Brewer will be able to suit up. I am going to lay the number with Kirby Smart who is 3-1 in bowl games. Where as Matt Rhule is 1-2 in bowls. Georgia -7.5 is the play.

Fade the MAC is in full effect for the last bowl game of the year. The MAC Champion Miami OH Redhawks face the Sunbelt Conference runner up Lousiana Ragin Cajuns. The 10 win Cajuns only lost to SEC West foe Mississippi St and SunBelt Champion App St in 2019. This might be the most impressive resume from any non Sunbelt champion that the conference has produced. This Rajun Cajuns team is very talented and when given the opportunity covered some big spreads. Including smashing the point spread by 23 points in the only game vs a MAC opponent this year. Miami OH is a nice story, being crowned MAC Champions, but lets face it, half of their wins are the likes of Bowling Green, Akron, Kent St, Tennessee Tech. This is a power ratings nightmare, 1 unit bet on Louisiana by more than two touchdowns for me.