Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

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The Yankees are in an excellent position on Saturday behind Max Fried, who has been one of the American League's most reliable starters this season (3.23 ERA, 2.51 xERA, and 2.57 FIP). Fried has been especially dominant on the road (4-2, 2.66 ERA), and his ability to induce weak contact (27.4% Hard%) while limiting free passes (2.82 BB/9) gives New York a clear edge over David Peterson. Fried is 27-10 (73%; +14.4% ROI) in August starts since 2019 and 29-6 (82.9%; +37.4% ROI) versus National League Central opponents in his career, winning by an average margin of 2.8 runs per game. Peterson has struggled badly at Wrigley Field, going 2-4 with a 7.51 ERA across 44.1 innings of work.

David Peterson’s Metrics

• 5.80 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 5.17 xERA, and 4.35 xFIP

• 3.80 BB/9, 9.3% BB%, and 8.6% K-BB%

• 36.7% Hard%

New York also owns the best team ERA in baseball (3.28) and has allowed the fewest home runs in the majors, giving the Yankees a significant advantage in run prevention. The Yankees have won seven of their last eight road games against the Cubs and Jasson Domínguez continues to provide consistency, recording a hit in 16 consecutive games as a favorite against National League teams. Even though Chicago leads the league in walks and ranks near the top in on-base percentage, Fried has the command and experience to neutralize those strengths.

Since 2010, American League road favorites of -120 to -220 are 1588-1079 (59.5%; +1% ROI) versus non-divisional opponents, including 1007-674 (59.9%; +1% ROI) since 2017, winning by an average margin of 1.3 runs per game. Finally, MLB favorites are 771-515 (60%; +4.9% ROI) versus opponents coming off an upset loss as -150 or greater favorites since 2005. With the superior starting pitcher, the better bullpen, and recent success at Wrigley Field, take the New York Yankees as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, August 1.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 197-146 | +69 Units
-> Profitable 76-56 (58%) Long-Term Run
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
-> Epic 129-83 (61%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles

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The Liberty have several statistical edges that make them the stronger side Saturday against Phoenix. New York's offense ranks among the league's best from the perimeter, sitting fifth in three-point percentage (35.2%), third in three-pointers made (10.1 per game), and second in three-point attempts, a combination that matches up well against a Mercury defense ranked last in opponent three-point percentage (36.9%). The Liberty also lead the WNBA in free-throw percentage (84.8%), an important advantage in what could be a tightly contested game. Defensively, New York is well-equipped to slow Phoenix, ranking second in defensive rebounds and allowing opponents to shoot just 45.2% from the field. The Mercury have struggled to generate efficient offense, ranking 15th in field-goal attempts, 14th in field goals made, and 11th in three-point percentage, making it difficult to consistently keep pace with elite offenses. New York's ability to protect the glass and limit second-chance opportunities should further frustrate a Phoenix team that already ranks near the bottom of the league in rebounding. If the Liberty establish their perimeter shooting early and force Phoenix into half-court possessions, they should be able to dictate the tempo throughout the afternoon.

Technically speaking, WNBA teams coming off a game in which they were not favored by six points or more are 444-348-14 ATS (56.1%), whereas home teams entering off a win by five points or less are 187-247-5 ATS (43.1%), including 63-96-2 ATS (39.6%) since 2022. Let’s also note that WNBA home teams are just 233-293-8 ATS (44.3%) in early-afternoon affairs, while teams arriving off three or more consecutive ATS losses, like New York, are 206-168-5 ATS (55.1%). With the stronger all-around statistical profile, superior shooting efficiency, and defensive matchup advantages, lay the points with the New York Liberty as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, August 1.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 197-146 | +69 Units
-> Profitable 76-56 (58%) Long-Term Run
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
-> Epic 129-83 (61%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles

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The Sky are in a strong position to pull off the upset at home thanks to a matchup that favors their defensive strengths. Chicago's defense ranks sixth in both opponent field-goal percentage (44.1%) and opponent assists (19.6 per game), making it difficult for opponents to generate efficient offense or quality ball movement. While Las Vegas owns one of the league's top offenses, ranking first in field-goal percentage (49.1%) and third in scoring (91.5 points per game), the Aces are facing a defense that has consistently forced teams to work deep into the shot clock. On the other end, Chicago's offense should find opportunities against a Las Vegas defense that ranks just 11th in 3P% (34.6) and 14th in turnovers. The Sky also rank third in assists and third in free throws made, showing they can move the ball efficiently while attacking the rim instead of relying solely on perimeter shooting. If Chicago controls the glass and gets to the free-throw line, it can offset Las Vegas' superior shooting efficiency. Playing at home should also give the Sky an emotional boost against one of the league's marquee teams, especially if they can dictate the pace early.

From a technical standpoint, small underdogs or favorites are 75-114-2 ATS (39.7%) in games with totals of 172 or more points, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 2.6 points per game since 2011. In addition, WNBA teams off either an ATS win or a narrow ATS loss are 93-58-1 ATS (61.6%) against opponents they were underdogs of +4 or more against in the previous meeting, provided one additional parameter is satisfied. These teams have covered the spread by an average margin of 3.2 points per game since 2011. With a defensive profile built to frustrate elite offenses and several statistical matchup edges that favor Chicago, the Sky have excellent value as the home side on Saturday. Grab the points with the live home underdog as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, August 1.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 197-146 | +69 Units
-> Profitable 76-56 (58%) Long-Term Run
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
-> Epic 129-83 (61%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles

Magic Mike's Yankees vs Cubs MLB Free Pick 

The Angle(s): The New York Yankees are 6-4 straight up, but 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games, as they with several big bats on the IL have had to rely on their pitching rather than hitting. Max Fried (4-3, 3.23 ERA) typically always brings the heat, even though admittedly his last few outings have been shaky.

Cubs southpaw David Peterson (6-7, 5.80 ERA) has had a disappointing year, but has looked a lot sharper in recent starts, with just three runs allowed over 16 2/3 innings of work. With the Yankees banged up, and 24-18 (57%) to the under against left-handed starters, and the wind expected to work in our favor - gimme the under.

The Bet: Under (3%). 

Tokyo Brandon is+104.43 units in 2026 
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First five innings: PIT 2.5, CIN 2.2

Ashcraft has 122 1/3 innings, 135 strikeouts and 30 walks this season. His full-season control and road performance remain strong, but his last three starts produced a 10.29 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. His recent five-start average is approximately five innings per appearance, supporting a projected hook during the sixth inning.

Abbott has 117 innings, 94 strikeouts and 54 walks. His last three starts produced a 3.38 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, but his home ERA is materially worse than his road performance. Pittsburgh’s power-heavy left-handed-pitching profile also raises Abbott’s projected damage above his season ERA.

PIT First 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-145)

Model projection: 2.5 PIT runs through five innings

Item

Result

Break-even probability at -145

59.2%

Model probability of 2+ PIT runs

70%

Model fair odds

-233

Estimated probability edge

+10.8%

Estimated ROI at -145

+18.3%

Pros

Andrew Abbott’s home split is vulnerable. Abbott’s projected home run-prevention profile is substantially weaker than his overall numbers, producing an effective matchup projection around 4.45 runs allowed per nine innings. Pittsburgh needs only two runs before Cincinnati’s bullpen enters.

Pittsburgh matches up better against left-handed pitching. The projected lineup contains several legitimate power threats against a left-handed starter: Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Esmerlyn Valdez and Ryan O’Hearn, subject to O’Hearn’s availability. Abbott’s walk rate also gives Pittsburgh additional paths to two runs without requiring a large hit total.

Abbott has not dominated Pittsburgh. Across his 2025–2026 meetings with PIT, Abbott allowed five earned runs, two home runs and five walks over 10⅔ innings. That works out to a 4.22 ERA, with Pittsburgh reaching two runs during Abbott’s workload at an encouraging rate.

The projected first-five game total supports it. The model has PIT at 2.5 runs and the entire first five at 4.7 runs. Pittsburgh accounts for approximately 53% of projected first-five scoring despite playing on the road.

Great American Ball Park improves the home-run pathway. Two runs can be reached through one walk and one homer, or two solo homers. The park’s elevated home-run environment is particularly useful for a Pittsburgh lineup whose projected production is power-driven rather than dependent on sustained rallies.

Abbott’s expected workload creates a possible bullpen plate appearance. Abbott projects for approximately 5⅓ innings, meaning a high-pitch opening five could expose Pittsburgh to a Cincinnati reliever before the wager closes. Cincinnati used several relievers in the previous game, making that outcome preferable to a fresh Abbott completing five.