Free MLB Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

PSP Data Driven play on Marlins +.1.5

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. The Marlins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. The Marlins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

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Minnesota has a favorable opportunity to strengthen its postseason position Monday against an Athletics club sitting at 51-80 and near the bottom of baseball in several pitching categories. The biggest matchup advantage comes against Jeffrey Springs, who is just 3-11 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, with Oakland going only 4-12 across his last 16 appearances.

Jeffrey Springs’ 2026 Metrics

• 6.02 ERA, 5.07 xERA, 6.16 FIP, and 5.07 xFIP

• 7.05 K/9 and 17.7% K%

• 3.72 BB/9 and 9.3% BB%

• 2.30 HR/9 and 17.3% HR/FB

The Athletics rank last in MLB in both runs allowed (755) and home runs allowed (200), providing Minnesota with an excellent opportunity to generate offense throughout the game. Zebby Matthews has a 5.12 ERA, but his recent results are encouraging, as he has earned the victory in each of his last three appearances. Matthews has also handled Oakland effectively in his career, posting a 2.45 ERA in two meetings. The situational trends strongly favor Minnesota: the Athletics have lost nine consecutive games against American League Central opponents and are 43-77 (35.8%; -21.5% ROI) following back-to-back wins since September 27, 2021, losing by an average margin of 1.2 runs per game. Oakland is also 90-155 (36.7%; -22.9% ROI) in home affairs following a game in which its bullpen allowed two or more runs, losing by an average margin of 1.7 runs per game.

The Twins have won nine straight Monday night games against teams with losing records. Minnesota has been particularly profitable in this type of road spot, covering the run line in 15 of its last 16 road games against American League West opponents following a road loss. Josh Bell has recorded a hit in 10 consecutive road appearances against losing American League West teams, while Brooks Lee has homered in three of Minnesota’s last four road games. With the Twins still battling in the wild-card race and facing one of baseball’s most vulnerable pitching staffs, take Minnesota as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, August 24.

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Cincinnati has a significant starting-pitching advantage in Monday’s series opener, making the Reds an attractive free pick against San Francisco. Chase Burns has emerged as one of baseball’s best starters, going 14-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 159 strikeouts this season.

Chase Burns’ 2026 Metrics

• 2.51 ERA, 3.01 xERA, 3.07 FIP, and 3.46 xFIP

• 10.52 K/9 and 29% K%

• 3.18 BB/9 and 8.8% BB%

• 0.86 HR/9 and 8.8% HR/FB

The Reds are 10-2 across Burns’ last 12 starts, and he has earned a victory in four of his last five appearances against National League opponents with losing records. Burns has not allowed any runs on two hits with one walk and 4 strikeouts in six innings versus the Giants, but the Reds ultimately lost that meeting 3-0. Since 2007, MLB road favorites of greater than -135 in games with totals of 10 runs or fewer are 1077-623 (63.4%; +2.5% ROI) when the starting pitcher lost their previous matchup start, winning by an average margin of 1.6 runs per game. San Francisco counters with Carson Whisenhunt, whose 7.03 ERA and 1.84 WHIP make him a prime candidate to struggle against Cincinnati’s lineup.

The Giants are only 52-78 overall and rank last in baseball in both on-base percentage (.305) and walks, which should make generating consistent traffic against Burns difficult. Cincinnati has also won four straight meetings with San Francisco following a loss, while the Giants have dropped nine consecutive night games against the Reds after a road defeat. The Reds are 36-20 (64.3%; +16.4% ROI) versus opponents coming off four or more consecutive losses since 2020, while Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in 12 consecutive road games against losing National League West opponents. With a massive advantage on the mound and favorable matchup history, take the Cincinnati Reds as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, August 24.

The Tigers have lost 5 straight and 8 of 9 as they begin a set with the AL East leading Rays on Monday. Not only is the team in poor form, but starter Framber Valdez is as well, having given up 9 earned runs over his past 2 starts. Valdez has also walked 9 batters over that span and hasn’t been the same pitcher in 2026. Drew Rasmussen finds himself in a bounce back spot as well, but prior to his last outing had allowed just 2 runs total over 4 straight starts. Tampa has won the past 6 times he’s taken the mound and we’ll look for them to do just that as they continue to fight for the division. Take the Rays.

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Ricky's play on CHW.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The White Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 games.

- Kumar Rocker is 0-4 in his last 4 starts for the Rangers.

- Jose Urquidy is 3-0 in his last 3 starts.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.