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(477) Green Bay Packers at (478) Minnesota Vikings: Spread ***11-3 Last 14 FREE Plays***

4% Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-105) Fight to find the best line, if you're getting -2 -110 or -105 bet Moneyline -120 instead

UPDATE 9/10 2:50 PM EST: Here is a video breakdown on youtube:

If you can see the link, in YouTube search: Wagertalk TV The Mad Russian

UPDATE 9/7 3:20 PM EST: I really like the matchup for Minnesota at home to open the season, and the biggest advantage for me is Brian Flores and this Vikings defense against Jordan Love.

Green Bay enters the season with major questions along the offensive line. PFF currently ranks the Packers' offensive line 28th out of 32 teams after they were already a bottom-10 pass-blocking unit last season. Green Bay lost Rasheed Walker and Elgton Jenkins during the offseason, and outside of right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele, the other four projected starters have combined for just one season with a PFF grade above 65.0.

That becomes even more concerning when you look at Jordan Love's numbers when he's pressured.

Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Love posted a 128.8 passer rating from a clean pocket, ranking #1 in the NFL. Under pressure, that number absolutely cratered to 46.7, ranking 39th out of 41. His completion percentage showed the same dramatic drop, going from 79.6% when kept clean to just 41.6% under pressure.

That is exactly where Brian Flores can create problems. His pressure packages and disguises force quarterbacks to process quickly, and Love simply wasn't the same quarterback when opponents were able to get him uncomfortable last season.

Green Bay also enters this game with major losses on the defensive side. Micah Parsons is unavailable to open the season and Rashan Gary is now in Dallas. Those two combined for 20 of Green Bay's 29 sacks last season, meaning the Packers enter Week 1 without players responsible for nearly 69% of their entire sack production from a year ago.

There is another significant issue for Green Bay offensively. Josh Jacobs is currently on the Commissioner's Exempt List and cannot practice or play while he remains there. Jacobs rushed for 929 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, and no other returning Packers running back rushed for more than 106 yards. Green Bay is currently preparing for Week 1 without its workhorse back.

I also like the coaching and home-field component here. Kevin O'Connell is 3-1 straight up at home against Green Bay since taking over in Minnesota.

We're laying less than a field goal at U.S. Bank Stadium in a divisional game where I believe Minnesota has the defensive and coaching matchup we want, while Green Bay comes into the opener with major questions in the trenches and missing several important pieces on both sides of the football.

This matchup features two rebuilding teams, but the market still asks Las Vegas to lay a full field goal even though the Dolphins can exploit several favorable matchups. Miami went 7-10 last season, four wins better than a 3-14 Las Vegas team with a disastrous -191-point differential. The Raiders finished last in offensive EPA, EPA per rush, and sack rate allowed, while their line ranked 32nd in yards before contact and adjusted line yards. Las Vegas responded with a new coaching staff and personnel changes, but major uncertainty remains under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Miami is also resetting under Jeff Hafley, yet Malik Willis presents a distinct challenge with his mobility and ability to create outside the play's structure. Willis generated 0.377 EPA per dropback in limited action last season, and his rushing threat should test a Raiders defense that must preserve gap integrity while containing De’Von Achane. After leading the NFL in yards per carry on runs of 10-plus yards last season, Achane remains Miami's most dangerous weapon and can flip field position with a single touch.

The matchup became even more favorable for Miami with Brock Bowers expected to miss the opener following a meniscus trim Tuesday in Dallas, taking the Raiders' most proven receiving weapon away from Cousins. Bowers has been dealing with knee issues since last season, when he played in twelve games (eight starts) before being placed on injured reserve for the last two weeks of the season. He totaled 64 catches for 680 yards and seven touchdowns and was named to his second straight Pro Bowl. The absence of Bowers becomes especially important because Las Vegas already entered the season with major questions at wide receiver, where Jack Bech, Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor comprise an underwhelming group. The Raiders also have uncertainty in the backfield, as Ashton Jeanty has been working his way back from an ankle injury suffered in August, further reducing the offensive advantages normally expected from a home favorite.

Miami's defense struggled last season, especially against the pass, but Hafley's defensive background and the organization's aggressive shift toward a younger roster offer reasons for optimism. The Dolphins upgraded at linebacker and in the secondary, with first-round corner Chris Johnson and rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez adding much-needed athleticism. Las Vegas should benefit from Tyler Linderbaum at center, yet major concerns remain about an offensive line that allowed pressure at an alarming rate last season.

Miami also holds a schematic edge: Willis' mobility and Achane's explosiveness can challenge a Raiders defense that struggled against the run in the preseason. Las Vegas cannot overcommit to stopping the run without becoming vulnerable to Willis' scrambles and designed movement. Both teams entered the season with similar expectations—Miami's win total was 4.5 versus 5.5 for Las Vegas—suggesting little talent gap on a neutral field. Miami also has the stronger recent baseline, having won seven games last year to Las Vegas' three, while both teams install new systems and start new quarterbacks.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database supports Miami in the short-road-underdog role. The Dolphins fall into a 62.5% ATS look-ahead system, a 66.7% ATS Week 1 road-underdog system, and a 59.0% ATS Week 1 system, while Las Vegas falls into multiple negative favorite situations.

• 825-494 ATS (62.5%) - Play On underdogs vs. teams that are +5 or greater underdogs in their next game. Las Vegas is currently projected around +9.5 at the Chargers next week, putting Miami into an exceptionally strong 62.5% league-wide situation;

• 273-195 ATS (58.3%) - Play Against favorites in Games 1-4 that failed to make the playoffs the previous season. The Raiders went just 3-14 last season;

• 310-233 ATS (57.1%) - Play On road underdogs of less than +9 with totals from 40 to 42.5;

• 50-25 ATS (66.7%) - Week 1 road underdogs of less than +7 that won two or fewer road games the previous season have covered two-thirds of qualifying games. Miami won only two road games last season;

• 43-22 ATS (66.2%) - Play Against the Raiders when favored by -3 or more. Las Vegas has historically struggled badly in this exact favorite role, covering only 33.8% of qualifying games since 2003;

• 249-200 ATS (55.5%) - Play Against non-divisional home favorites of -4 or less during Weeks 1-9.

With Bowers expected to be out, Jeanty coming off an ankle injury, lingering concerns along the Raiders' offensive line, and Miami possessing the two most dynamic rushing threats on the field in Willis and Achane, grab the generous points with the Dolphins as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, September 13.

Take Houston (#464)

While the recreational bettors fall in love with their favorite quarterback when it comes to betting Week 1 of the NFL, experienced pros know that getting stops – the better defense – is every bit as important as having an elite QB.  The Texans defense is better than the Bills defense on all three levels; one of many ‘depth concerns’ issues that Buffalo has after signing Josh Allen to his fat long term contract.  I trust Houston to get a key fourth quarter stop far more than Buffalo -- so crucial in this pointspread range -- just like they did last year when they held Matthew Stafford and the Rams to 14 points in Week 1.  This time around, however, I expect the Texans revamped offensive line to hold up; a game I expect them to win.  That said, I’d rather take the point and a half here ‘just in case’ of a tight finish -- the moneyline payout simply isn’t worth it.  Take the Texans

This is the prop where the additional research produces the greatest reason for caution.

Our simulations project Corum for 8.7 rushing attempts against 10.5 posted, creating a calculated 22.9% edge toward the UNDER. The conceptual appeal remains straightforward: we're wagering on opportunity rather than efficiency. Corum could run extremely well on his touches and still cash an UNDER that requires 11 separate rushing attempts to beat us.

But Corum's late-2025 workload creates a meaningful challenge to that projection.

From Week 14 onward last season, Corum accounted for approximately 37% of Rams rushing attempts and 40% of attempts inside the 15-yard line. Another season review calculated that he averaged 11.2 opportunities per game from Weeks 7-18. Those are not the usage statistics of a conventional backup who can automatically be projected for six or seven carries.

A separate Week 1 analysis puts his late-season rushing workload at approximately 10.5 attempts per game — essentially tonight's betting number. More importantly, San Francisco allowed the NFL's highest rushing success rate last season according to that analysis. A productive running environment increases the possibility that Sean McVay keeps both Kyren Williams and Corum involved.

There is also active disagreement among outside handicappers. One current analysis specifically recommends Corum OVER 10.5 carries, noting that he exceeded this number in six of 10 games after the Rams' bye and recorded 13 carries against San Francisco in one of those meetings. Another current prop handicap likes Corum OVER his rushing-yardage total, again based on his expanded second-half role.

That doesn't make our 8.7-attempt projection wrong, but it does make this materially different from a prop where projection, role and outside information all point in the same direction.

The UNDER thesis requires Kyren Williams to maintain a clearly dominant workload, Los Angeles to become more pass-heavy than expected, or game circumstances to prevent Corum from accumulating a dozen opportunities.

PLAY: BLAKE CORUM UNDER 10.5 rushing attempts at -120 or better only.

Do not chase a worse number.

PASS at 9.5.

Higbee's UNDER is primarily a target-distribution and tight-end-rotation wager.

Our original simulation produces two correlated signals. Higbee projects for approximately 12.0 receiving yards against 13.5 posted while also projecting for only 1.2 receptions against 1.5. Both markets point toward reduced receiving usage.

There is a legitimate structural reason for that projection. The Rams have one of the deepest tight-end rooms in football. They brought back Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson and Davis Allen after using 13 personnel at the NFL's highest rate last season, then added another tight end in the draft. Los Angeles therefore has considerably more ways to distribute tight-end snaps and routes than a conventional offense carrying one primary pass-catching tight end.

Terrance Ferguson is particularly relevant. Sean McVay praised his versatility during camp and noted that Ferguson can handle responsibilities across multiple offensive positions. Every expanded Ferguson route or designed touch potentially removes an opportunity from the 33-year-old Higbee.

Higbee also finished 2025 with 25 catches for 281 yards in 10 games. That works out to 2.5 receptions and 28.1 yards per appearance, so historically this would look like a very low receiving total. But those season-long averages are precisely why projected Week 1 usage matters more than blindly comparing 13.5 with last year's box scores.

There is nevertheless substantial counterevidence here, and it should affect confidence. Higbee is currently healthy enough to have practiced fully, and another independent projection model forecasts approximately 26 receiving yards and 2.9 catches — dramatically higher than our primary model.

For that reason, this is not as strong as Robinson despite the attractive number. The wager depends heavily on our model being correct about how Los Angeles divides its deep tight-end rotation.

The yardage UNDER remains preferable to receptions because Higbee can catch one or two very short passes without necessarily reaching 14 yards.

PLAY: TYLER HIGBEE UNDER 13.5 receiving yards at -115 or better.

UNDER 12.5 remains playable.