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The Rams were robbed of a win last week in Denver due to terrible officiating, but the fact is this LA team is elite at every level. Reining MVP in Stafford, Davante Adams is as good as it gets, and the defense has been excellent apart from Week 1. On the other hand, the Eagles have been vastly overrated in the betting market thus far and are 0-3 ATS as a result. This offense has real problems, from penalties to turnovers, and just flat out poor execution. Philly barely snuck by their first 2 games against poor competition and just got blown out by a 38 year old 3^rd string quarterback who hadn’t started a game in 3 years. Take the Rams.

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The NFL Comp play is on the Tennessee Titans plus the 11+ points here today. The Titans are in a nice system that has cashed 27 of 28 times since 2005 and pertains to non division grass road dogs of 2 or more off a road loss if they had less than 18 minutes of time of possession is back to back games and are taking on a team like Baltimore that allowed more than 7 points. The Titans have a statistically better defense and their offense which has been below average should do better here than it did last week in the rainy weather last week in NY. Baltimore off the dramatic win in Brazil getting a field goal despite having just 8 seconds left are likely to bounce a bit here as they play off the long distance with no additional rest. Look for the Titans to keep this within the number today. GL Rob V-
 
SU: 15-14 
ATS: 27-1-1

Team: 21.7
Opp: 22.0
 
 
 
Oct 04, 2026 01:00 Sun 4 2026 Titans Ravens away - - - - - 11.5 42.5

(253) New England Patriots at (254) Buffalo Bills: Spread ***This is a 4% Client Release Play***

4% New England Patriots +7.0 (-115)

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Here is my full video breakdown and analysis on YouTube:

If you can’t see the link, search YouTube for: The Mad Russian Wagertalk

I’m taking the full touchdown with New England in a divisional matchup that has been much tighter than the perception of these two teams would suggest.

The last SIX meetings between New England and Buffalo have all been decided by one possession.

And we don’t have to go very far back for proof that New England can compete in this building. Last October, the Patriots went into Buffalo as an underdog and won outright, 23-20. Drake Maye completed 22-of-30 passes for 273 yards and led the game-winning drive.

Here’s another number I absolutely love in this spot:

New England was a PERFECT 8-0 on the road during the 2025 regular season, then won another road game in the postseason to finish 9-0 away from home.

They became the ONLY TEAM IN NFL HISTORY to finish a season 9-0 on the road.

So going into Buffalo and competing in this environment is nothing new for this group.

The Patriots were embarrassed 35-6 last week in Jacksonville, and I actually like this setup because of it.

One of the situations I’m always interested in is a good-to-great team, with a good-to-great coach and a good-to-great quarterback, coming off a humiliating performance the week before.

Those teams spend the entire week hearing about how bad they looked, what’s wrong with them and whether they’ve been exposed.

With Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, I trust the response.

Vrabel-coached teams are 26-17-4 ATS following a loss, including 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10.

Maye is also 8-3 ATS outdoors coming off a loss, including 8-2 ATS in his last 10 qualifying games.

Buffalo is 3-0, but I don’t think the Bills have played nearly as cleanly as that record suggests.

They committed FIVE turnovers last week against the Chargers and didn’t take their first lead until the fourth quarter.

Through three weeks, Buffalo has also committed 25 penalties for 219 yards, nearly 73 penalty yards per game.

That matters when we’re catching a full touchdown.

I’m not asking New England to be the better team for 60 minutes. I’m asking them to stay within one score against a familiar divisional opponent that has been making mistakes and giving opponents extra possessions.

There is one injury situation I’m watching closely. Christian Gonzalez, Christian Barmore and Morgan Moses have all missed practice time for New England, while Buffalo CB Christian Benford has also been dealing with a toe injury. Drake Maye has practiced fully despite his shoulder designation.

New England got humiliated last week, but this is still a talented team with a coach and quarterback I trust to respond.

Add in a team that went a historic 9-0 away from home last season, six consecutive meetings in this rivalry decided by one possession, and a full touchdown in our pocket and I think this is a very strong bounce-back spot.

Buffalo may win the football game.

I just think SEVEN is too many.

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KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play ON teams with a winning record in Game #4 if they're coming off a double-digit ATS loss, beat the current opponent in the last matchup, and are either a 3+ point underdog or a 3+ point favorite.

Applies to Philadelphia.

24-3 ATS since the 1994 season, covering the spread by an average of 10.1 points per game!

Take the LA Rams (#265)

This ‘Daily Double’ video below has my free picks for Rams - Eagles and Colts - Commanders early start from London in NFL action on Sunday. Here’s a brief write-up for Philly - LAR.

The injury report is very meaningful for this game.  Remember, the Eagles are trying to learn Sean Mannion’s new offense, but they’ve been hit with cluster injuries to their receiving corps (not to mention the departure of AJ Brown).  As it stands as I write this on Friday, Devanta Smith and Dallas Goedert are both OUT, leaving Dontayvion Wicks and rookie Makai Lemon as Jalen Hurts’ primary pass catchers.  Philly’s offense hasn’t worked, held to a single TD in Chicago on Monday Night; held to 10 first downs against the Commanders before that.  LA won’t forget blowing a three score lead on this field last year and they’ve got urgency off a rough loss in Denver last Sunday Night.  Road chalk worth laying.  Take the Rams.