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Take Washington - Philadelphia UNDER (#475-476)

This ‘Daily Double’ video offers my take on Philly - Washington and Green Bay - Minnesota on Sunday.  Here’s a brief write-up of my Eagles - Commanders opinion.

It’s not hard to make a case for Week 1 divisional Unders — the offenses haven’t gotten enough work in August and the defenses have familiarity with what they’ll be facing on opening day.  Washington didn’t reach 300 yards of offense in either meeting against the Eagles last year.  Philly is in their first game running Sean Mannion’s offense with a downgraded receiving corps for Jalen Hurts to throw too.  Philly still has an elite defense under Vic Fangio and Washington went on a free agent spending spree, upgrading their defense on all three levels.  Expect field goals, not touchdowns in what has all the makings of a relatively low scoring affair.  Take the UNDER.

The case for Kansas City starts with buying Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at home for a relatively inexpensive price in a divisional game, where the market is essentially treating these teams as equals. Kansas City is coming off a disappointing 6-11 season, but its underlying profile was considerably better than that record suggests, particularly on defense, where the Chiefs allowed only 19.3 points per game and ranked sixth in scoring defense. The biggest problem was an offense that slipped to 21.3 points per game, but Kansas City made meaningful changes to address that exact weakness. Eric Bieniemy is back coordinating an offense that became too predictable last season, while Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III gives Mahomes the explosive running threat that was missing from a ground game that ranked only 25th in rushing offense. Walker rushed for 1,027 yards last season and forced 77 missed tackles during the regular season and playoffs, providing a major upgrade over a backfield that lacked big-play ability. Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton give Kansas City speed and explosiveness on the perimeter, while Travis Kelce remains Mahomes' most trusted possession target. Most importantly, Mahomes has been a full participant in practice after recovering from his knee injury, a major development considering how much Kansas City's offensive ceiling changes with him behind center. The offensive line does have a legitimate concern at left tackle with Josh Simmons sidelined, but Reid has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to scheme around protection problems, and Mahomes' quick processing gives Kansas City a chance to neutralize some of Denver's pass-rush advantage.

Denver deserves respect after going 14-3 and reaching the AFC Championship Game last season, but that performance also creates an elevated market perception that may be difficult to duplicate. The Broncos won 11 consecutive games at one point, yet their postseason run ended with only seven points in the AFC Championship Game after Bo Nix was injured, illustrating how quickly their offensive ceiling can fall when circumstances turn against them. Denver added Jaylen Waddle and should again possess one of the league's better defenses, but Kansas City still has the best quarterback in this matchup and now gets him back at Arrowhead in a primetime divisional opener. Kansas City's defense remains another major reason to lay the short number, as Steve Spagnuolo's unit ranked sixth in points allowed and added first-round defensive tackle Peter Woods and highly regarded rookie corner Mansoor Delane to a group that already features Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. The Chiefs' 2025 defense surrendered just 301.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, giving Kansas City a strong foundation while its revamped offense finds its footing.

The situational value is also appealing because Kansas City opened around -2.5 and remains available at that key number in parts of the market despite Denver receiving substantial betting support. Power-rating projections also support the favorite, with one current set of ratings making Kansas City roughly a five-point favorite rather than the -2.5 being offered. That creates value on a Chiefs team whose 2025 record obscures a defense that remained championship-caliber and an offense that has upgraded its backfield while getting Mahomes healthy again.

My technical database presents a consistent theme: the market has historically overvalued successful teams from the previous season when they return in Week 1 as road underdogs.

Technician’s Corner

• Kansas City is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in divisional games when neither team is favored by -5 or since November 2015;

• Week 1 home favorites are 71-44 ATS (61.7%) vs. opponents that finished above .500 the previous season. Kansas City qualifies as the home favorite against a Denver team coming off its 14-win season;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won 9+ games the previous season are just 44-71 ATS, meaning the play-against side has cashed 61.7% (71-44 ATS);

• The broader playoff version has also been profitable: Week 1 road underdogs coming off a playoff season are 25-44 ATS;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won more games than their opponent the previous season are 47-64 ATS, producing a 57.7% play-against rate. Denver's 14 wins, compared with Kansas City's 6, put the Broncos squarely in that fade situation.

With Mahomes back, Walker adding a badly needed explosive rushing dimension, Bieniemy reshaping the offense, and Kansas City playing at Arrowhead in a divisional opener, take the Chiefs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, September 14.

(477) Green Bay Packers at (478) Minnesota Vikings: Spread ***11-3 Last 14 FREE Plays***

4% Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-105) Fight to find the best line, if you're getting -2 -110 or -105 bet Moneyline -120 instead

UPDATE 9/10 2:50 PM EST: Here is a video breakdown on youtube:

If you can see the link, in YouTube search: Wagertalk TV The Mad Russian

UPDATE 9/7 3:20 PM EST: I really like the matchup for Minnesota at home to open the season, and the biggest advantage for me is Brian Flores and this Vikings defense against Jordan Love.

Green Bay enters the season with major questions along the offensive line. PFF currently ranks the Packers' offensive line 28th out of 32 teams after they were already a bottom-10 pass-blocking unit last season. Green Bay lost Rasheed Walker and Elgton Jenkins during the offseason, and outside of right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele, the other four projected starters have combined for just one season with a PFF grade above 65.0.

That becomes even more concerning when you look at Jordan Love's numbers when he's pressured.

Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Love posted a 128.8 passer rating from a clean pocket, ranking #1 in the NFL. Under pressure, that number absolutely cratered to 46.7, ranking 39th out of 41. His completion percentage showed the same dramatic drop, going from 79.6% when kept clean to just 41.6% under pressure.

That is exactly where Brian Flores can create problems. His pressure packages and disguises force quarterbacks to process quickly, and Love simply wasn't the same quarterback when opponents were able to get him uncomfortable last season.

Green Bay also enters this game with major losses on the defensive side. Micah Parsons is unavailable to open the season and Rashan Gary is now in Dallas. Those two combined for 20 of Green Bay's 29 sacks last season, meaning the Packers enter Week 1 without players responsible for nearly 69% of their entire sack production from a year ago.

There is another significant issue for Green Bay offensively. Josh Jacobs is currently on the Commissioner's Exempt List and cannot practice or play while he remains there. Jacobs rushed for 929 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, and no other returning Packers running back rushed for more than 106 yards. Green Bay is currently preparing for Week 1 without its workhorse back.

I also like the coaching and home-field component here. Kevin O'Connell is 3-1 straight up at home against Green Bay since taking over in Minnesota.

We're laying less than a field goal at U.S. Bank Stadium in a divisional game where I believe Minnesota has the defensive and coaching matchup we want, while Green Bay comes into the opener with major questions in the trenches and missing several important pieces on both sides of the football.

This matchup features two rebuilding teams, but the market still asks Las Vegas to lay a full field goal even though the Dolphins can exploit several favorable matchups. Miami went 7-10 last season, four wins better than a 3-14 Las Vegas team with a disastrous -191-point differential. The Raiders finished last in offensive EPA, EPA per rush, and sack rate allowed, while their line ranked 32nd in yards before contact and adjusted line yards. Las Vegas responded with a new coaching staff and personnel changes, but major uncertainty remains under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Miami is also resetting under Jeff Hafley, yet Malik Willis presents a distinct challenge with his mobility and ability to create outside the play's structure. Willis generated 0.377 EPA per dropback in limited action last season, and his rushing threat should test a Raiders defense that must preserve gap integrity while containing De’Von Achane. After leading the NFL in yards per carry on runs of 10-plus yards last season, Achane remains Miami's most dangerous weapon and can flip field position with a single touch.

The matchup became even more favorable for Miami with Brock Bowers expected to miss the opener following a meniscus trim Tuesday in Dallas, taking the Raiders' most proven receiving weapon away from Cousins. Bowers has been dealing with knee issues since last season, when he played in twelve games (eight starts) before being placed on injured reserve for the last two weeks of the season. He totaled 64 catches for 680 yards and seven touchdowns and was named to his second straight Pro Bowl. The absence of Bowers becomes especially important because Las Vegas already entered the season with major questions at wide receiver, where Jack Bech, Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor comprise an underwhelming group. The Raiders also have uncertainty in the backfield, as Ashton Jeanty has been working his way back from an ankle injury suffered in August, further reducing the offensive advantages normally expected from a home favorite.

Miami's defense struggled last season, especially against the pass, but Hafley's defensive background and the organization's aggressive shift toward a younger roster offer reasons for optimism. The Dolphins upgraded at linebacker and in the secondary, with first-round corner Chris Johnson and rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez adding much-needed athleticism. Las Vegas should benefit from Tyler Linderbaum at center, yet major concerns remain about an offensive line that allowed pressure at an alarming rate last season.

Miami also holds a schematic edge: Willis' mobility and Achane's explosiveness can challenge a Raiders defense that struggled against the run in the preseason. Las Vegas cannot overcommit to stopping the run without becoming vulnerable to Willis' scrambles and designed movement. Both teams entered the season with similar expectations—Miami's win total was 4.5 versus 5.5 for Las Vegas—suggesting little talent gap on a neutral field. Miami also has the stronger recent baseline, having won seven games last year to Las Vegas' three, while both teams install new systems and start new quarterbacks.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database supports Miami in the short-road-underdog role. The Dolphins fall into a 62.5% ATS look-ahead system, a 66.7% ATS Week 1 road-underdog system, and a 59.0% ATS Week 1 system, while Las Vegas falls into multiple negative favorite situations.

• 825-494 ATS (62.5%) - Play On underdogs vs. teams that are +5 or greater underdogs in their next game. Las Vegas is currently projected around +9.5 at the Chargers next week, putting Miami into an exceptionally strong 62.5% league-wide situation;

• 273-195 ATS (58.3%) - Play Against favorites in Games 1-4 that failed to make the playoffs the previous season. The Raiders went just 3-14 last season;

• 310-233 ATS (57.1%) - Play On road underdogs of less than +9 with totals from 40 to 42.5;

• 50-25 ATS (66.7%) - Week 1 road underdogs of less than +7 that won two or fewer road games the previous season have covered two-thirds of qualifying games. Miami won only two road games last season;

• 43-22 ATS (66.2%) - Play Against the Raiders when favored by -3 or more. Las Vegas has historically struggled badly in this exact favorite role, covering only 33.8% of qualifying games since 2003;

• 249-200 ATS (55.5%) - Play Against non-divisional home favorites of -4 or less during Weeks 1-9.

With Bowers expected to be out, Jeanty coming off an ankle injury, lingering concerns along the Raiders' offensive line, and Miami possessing the two most dynamic rushing threats on the field in Willis and Achane, grab the generous points with the Dolphins as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, September 13.

Take Houston (#464)

While the recreational bettors fall in love with their favorite quarterback when it comes to betting Week 1 of the NFL, experienced pros know that getting stops – the better defense – is every bit as important as having an elite QB.  The Texans defense is better than the Bills defense on all three levels; one of many ‘depth concerns’ issues that Buffalo has after signing Josh Allen to his fat long term contract.  I trust Houston to get a key fourth quarter stop far more than Buffalo -- so crucial in this pointspread range -- just like they did last year when they held Matthew Stafford and the Rams to 14 points in Week 1.  This time around, however, I expect the Texans revamped offensive line to hold up; a game I expect them to win.  That said, I’d rather take the point and a half here ‘just in case’ of a tight finish -- the moneyline payout simply isn’t worth it.  Take the Texans