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(253) New England Patriots at (254) Buffalo Bills: Spread ***This is a 4% Client Release Play***

4% New England Patriots +7.0 (-115)

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Here is my full video breakdown and analysis on YouTube:

If you can’t see the link, search YouTube for: The Mad Russian Wagertalk

I’m taking the full touchdown with New England in a divisional matchup that has been much tighter than the perception of these two teams would suggest.

The last SIX meetings between New England and Buffalo have all been decided by one possession.

And we don’t have to go very far back for proof that New England can compete in this building. Last October, the Patriots went into Buffalo as an underdog and won outright, 23-20. Drake Maye completed 22-of-30 passes for 273 yards and led the game-winning drive.

Here’s another number I absolutely love in this spot:

New England was a PERFECT 8-0 on the road during the 2025 regular season, then won another road game in the postseason to finish 9-0 away from home.

They became the ONLY TEAM IN NFL HISTORY to finish a season 9-0 on the road.

So going into Buffalo and competing in this environment is nothing new for this group.

The Patriots were embarrassed 35-6 last week in Jacksonville, and I actually like this setup because of it.

One of the situations I’m always interested in is a good-to-great team, with a good-to-great coach and a good-to-great quarterback, coming off a humiliating performance the week before.

Those teams spend the entire week hearing about how bad they looked, what’s wrong with them and whether they’ve been exposed.

With Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, I trust the response.

Vrabel-coached teams are 26-17-4 ATS following a loss, including 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10.

Maye is also 8-3 ATS outdoors coming off a loss, including 8-2 ATS in his last 10 qualifying games.

Buffalo is 3-0, but I don’t think the Bills have played nearly as cleanly as that record suggests.

They committed FIVE turnovers last week against the Chargers and didn’t take their first lead until the fourth quarter.

Through three weeks, Buffalo has also committed 25 penalties for 219 yards, nearly 73 penalty yards per game.

That matters when we’re catching a full touchdown.

I’m not asking New England to be the better team for 60 minutes. I’m asking them to stay within one score against a familiar divisional opponent that has been making mistakes and giving opponents extra possessions.

There is one injury situation I’m watching closely. Christian Gonzalez, Christian Barmore and Morgan Moses have all missed practice time for New England, while Buffalo CB Christian Benford has also been dealing with a toe injury. Drake Maye has practiced fully despite his shoulder designation.

New England got humiliated last week, but this is still a talented team with a coach and quarterback I trust to respond.

Add in a team that went a historic 9-0 away from home last season, six consecutive meetings in this rivalry decided by one possession, and a full touchdown in our pocket and I think this is a very strong bounce-back spot.

Buffalo may win the football game.

I just think SEVEN is too many.

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Take the LA Rams (#265)

This ‘Daily Double’ video below has my free picks for Rams - Eagles and Colts - Commanders early start from London in NFL action on Sunday. Here’s a brief write-up for Philly - LAR.

The injury report is very meaningful for this game.  Remember, the Eagles are trying to learn Sean Mannion’s new offense, but they’ve been hit with cluster injuries to their receiving corps (not to mention the departure of AJ Brown).  As it stands as I write this on Friday, Devanta Smith and Dallas Goedert are both OUT, leaving Dontayvion Wicks and rookie Makai Lemon as Jalen Hurts’ primary pass catchers.  Philly’s offense hasn’t worked, held to a single TD in Chicago on Monday Night; held to 10 first downs against the Commanders before that.  LA won’t forget blowing a three score lead on this field last year and they’ve got urgency off a rough loss in Denver last Sunday Night.  Road chalk worth laying.  Take the Rams.

This is a free play on DET TT Over.

The Lions rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring averaging over 30 points per game, and they rank dead last in scoring defense allowing 32 points per game. Goff is cooking, and Jamyr Gibbs is an absolute weapon with six TDs in the first three games of the season. The Panthers are 1-2 with a fraud win over Atlanta with Cooper Rush at QB. The Bears scored 59 points, and rank for 291 yards and six TDs the last time an NFL game was played here. We are only asking the Lions to do half of what the Bears did.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Take #253 Patriots/Bills Over

The Patriots have struggled to find consistency offensively, with Drake Maye completing 63.7% of his passes for 585 yards through three games. While the results haven't been what New England wanted, this is a matchup where the Patriots should be forced to stay aggressive. Facing a 3-0 Buffalo team creates a game script where New England can't afford to sit back and play conservatively.

Buffalo has also shown the ability to generate points and sustain offensive pressure. With the Bills playing at home and coming in with plenty of confidence, we expect them to put points on the board and force New England to respond. That could create the kind of back-and-forth scoring environment we're looking for with this total.

The Patriots also have plenty of familiarity with Buffalo, and we expect them to come into this rivalry game ready to compete. Even if the Bills control portions of the matchup, New England should have opportunities to generate points of its own. A competitive game is especially helpful for the Over because both offenses should remain aggressive into the second half.

We expect this AFC East battle to produce plenty of scoring opportunities, with Buffalo contributing heavily and New England doing enough to keep the scoreboard moving.

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Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Over 88.5 (-113):

Jonathan Taylor has covered this line in 2 of his first 3 games of the season with 68, 92 and 98 yards for an average of 86 yards per game. The Indianapolis Colts have only handed the ball of on 44% of their offensive snaps, but Taylor has still seen amazing volume with 23, 24 and 19 rushing attempts. Indianapolis has an elite offensive line that currently ranks 6th in run blocking according to PFF. The Washington Commanders did a solid job keeping the lid on Seattle Seahawk and Dallas Cowboy running backs, but Saquon Barkley did run for 83 yards against them in Week 1. However, Washington's linebacker core has been bit by the injury bug as Leo Chenal is out for the season (neck) and Frankie Luvu is dealing with a nagging groin injury. This game will be played overseas in London, and the Colts find themselves as -3.5-point favorites which should set Taylor up with a positive game script.