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Chiefs vs Falcons NFL Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Kansas City Chiefs have leaned on their ground game this season, averaging an NFL-best 5.08 yards per carry, and that kind of run-heavy approach shortens games and drains the clock. Their defense has also been stout, limiting opponents to one of the lowest points-per-play rates in the league, making it no surprise they are 5-3 to the under.

The Atlanta Falcons can run the ball, but their passing attack has stalled, with Michael Penix Jr. throwing for just 162 yards in his last game. If Kansas City's defense takes away the run, Atlanta will struggle to keep drives alive. With both teams likely to grind out possessions, I expect this one to stay under the number.

The Bet: Under (3%). 

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Two teams going nowhere fast. Miami is starting Kyle McCord today who will be replacing Willis who is out with an injury that may keep him out of the line up for a month. The Colts are a dumpster fire, trading away players left and right including their top 2 receivers this week. With the total sitting at 37.5, playing with no elements, and a good chance that a turnover or two could set up a short field let's go over the total.

David's NFL Free Pick

We really like under in this matchup. The Jaguars (6-2) have one of the best defenses in the league, giving up just 15 points a game. Against a Titans offense that's struggled to move the ball, averaging only 272 yards per game (28th), Jacksonville should be able to keep Tennessee off the board for long stretches.

The Titans (1-7) are still searching for answers, and they're still a winless 0-4 at home. If the Jaguars get out in front, expect them to lean on the run game and burn clock in the second half rather than pile it on.

An elite Jaguars defense against a Titans offense that can't get going, in a game Jacksonville should control.

This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER.

The "total" has dropped precipitously in this matchup on the news that rookie QB Carson Beck makes his first NFL start on Sunday for the Big Red. Except we don't think Mike LaFleur is going to put any training wheels on Beck or the Cards offense.

Though not wanting to overreact to preseason, Beck impressed greatly in August, and LaFleur has already said he wants to Beck to wing it on Sunday. The earlier meeting at SoFi ended only 18-16 in Arizona's favor last month, but the Rams seem on surer footing since, and the chance to avenge that result should have Matthew Stafford firing away on Sunday in Glendale...with Beck and the Cards giving chase. Play Rams-Cardinals "Over"

Steelers