Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

5 big winners today in NFLX, MLB, and WNBA.

FREE WINNER: 49ers/Raiders Under

Both coaches have announced that they will be sitting their key starters. With key players on both sides of the ball expected to rest, I see a low scoring game, as preseason finales historically trend toward lower-scoring affairs due to basic playbook designs and a lack of overall offensive chemistry. Play the Under.

This is Friday’s strongest worldwide contrarian position.

Atlanta is drawing 75% of the spread bets and an enormous 94% of the spread money, yet laying more than a field goal in a preseason game remains a dangerous proposition.

The league-wide betting-splits system is particularly relevant: since 2023, when the majority handle backs a preseason team favored by at least 3.5 points, that group is just 33-44 ATS — 42.9%. Atlanta qualifies directly.

There is another applicable league-wide setup: teams scoring at least 34 points in their previous preseason game are just 15-20-1 ATS — 42.9% — in the following exhibition game. Atlanta scored 34 against Indianapolis.

Miami also owns supporting matchup history, going 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven preseason meetings with Atlanta.

Atlanta opened around -2.5 and is now -3.5. Rather than chase the move, the preferable approach is to take the extra point with Miami.

Tua Tagovailoa starts for Atlanta before Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, while Miami’s quarterback depth has been poor. Still, the price, public imbalance and applicable systems justify the dog.

Playable: MIAMI +3 or better. Strongly prefer +3.5.

Rams vs. Chargers — Preseason Betting Notes

Preseason is about what we know. Here's what we've got:

Quarterbacks

McVay doesn't play his starters in preseason

QB2 battle: Stetson Bennett vs. Ty Simpson — Bennett got most of the work last week, Simpson got most of it in Week 1. Expect each to see a half

Herbert played one drive last week and I don't expect more than that this week

Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei should take the majority of Chargers snaps

Trends

Despite starters sitting, the Rams have strong preseason trends:

8-0 ATS in their last 8 preseason games

14-6 ATS following a preseason win

8-0 ATS as a preseason underdog

2-0 this preseason, including a 34-0 win over the Saints

The Play

I lean Under, but the side is Rams +3.5, with a small sprinkle on the ML at +150

Let's cash some tickets!

Keep an eye on the line movement to trigger a free play. The broad preseason total profile points toward the UNDER. Preseason totals of 37 or higher have gone 575-438 UNDER since 2010 — 56.8%.

The personnel structure provides some additional support. Kyle Shanahan is expected to protect most established San Francisco starters, turning the game largely over to reserve units. San Francisco still has several live roster battles, but the first-unit offensive continuity seen during meaningful regular-season action will not be present. (49ers Webzone)

Las Vegas is similarly focused on evaluation. The Raiders continue to highlight young players such as Fernando Mendoza entering the finale, while their remaining roster battles take priority over regular-season offensive game planning. (Las Vegas Raiders)

The public is leaning the other way on the total, with roughly 55% of tickets and 59% of money on the OVER, providing modest additional support for the UNDER.

The system is profitable but materially weaker than the premium side systems, so this stays at Free Play level.

FREE PLAY: 49ers-Raiders UNDER 38.5

Betting parameters: Play UNDER 38 or higher. Pass at 37.5 or lower.

Take #110 Commanders vs Ravens Under

We like the Under in this one. With the starters expected to sit, we’re looking at two teams leaning heavily on their backup quarterbacks, which should make points tough to come by.

Washington has Sam Hartman and Athan Kaliakmanis available, while Baltimore is expected to turn to Tyler Huntley. Kaliakmanis actually looked sharp in Week 2, completing 11-of-14 for 162 yards, but Washington's offense still managed only 13 points against Detroit.

The Ravens also scored just 13 points in their previous preseason game against Minnesota, while their young defense has been playing extremely well. Baltimore's defense produced a strong 13-3 win over the Vikings and generated consistent pressure and turnovers.

With limited offensive firepower, backup quarterbacks, and two defenses that have shown they can dictate preseason games, we're expecting another low-scoring affair.

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