Free NFL Football Predictions for December 25

Farley Bets

Event: (429) Chicago Bears at (430) San Francisco 49ers

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: December 28, 2025 8:20 PM EST

Free NFL Football Pick Today: Chicago Bears +3 (-105)

Caleb Williams and the Bears did it again in Week 16. Although they were trailing for the majority of the contest, Chicago willed itself to a victory at home against a team that has historically dominated their franchise. A late onside-kick recovery and then a timely error by the Green Bay offense, which included a failed fourth down conversion in overtime, opened the window for Williams and the offense. Eventually the Bears tallied up 400 total yards on Saturday night, largely behind the heroics of their second-year quarterback. Williams had another efficient performance, going 19-34 for 250 yards (7.4 yards per pass) and two touchdowns. He also ran three times for 30 yards, converting a few key first downs.

Chicago’s defense had its struggles, even after Jordan Love left the game (they allowed Malik Willis and the Packers to run for 190 yards), but they also made big plays when they needed to. Dennis Allen’s group prevented the Pack from scoring late, allowing just 3 points in the fourth quarter and nothing more in overtime. In one of the biggest turnaround stories this season, Chicago clinched a playoff berth in the process and now they have a firm two-game lead in the NFC North.

The 49ers won their fifth game in a row on Monday night and were completely unstoppable offensively. Some of that may be due to the current state of the banged up Colts, who are hanging on by a thread in the playoff race. Regardless, 28 first downs and 440 yards later, San Francisco remains a threat even for the NFC’s #1 seed, which was inconceivable six weeks ago. The return of Brock Purdy and the steady, disciplined nature of Robert Saleh’s defense have kept the outfit thriving, and many consider the Niners a dark-horse threat to make a deep playoff run. Contrarily, most of their wins have come against lower-tier opponents or opponents in difficult situations, as they’ve had one of the most complimentary schedules in the NFL this season. Their defense, which ranks 23rd in total EPA metrics and allowed 27 points to the Phillip Rivers’ led Colts on Monday, is still cause for concern.

This already feels like a playoff game since the team that loses will effectively be booted out of contention for the NFC’s #1 seed. Chicago has been super-consistent this season, qualifying as one of the most effective teams against the spread (10-5, 66.7%). But so has San Francisco (9-5-1 overall, 7-2-1 as a favorite). Still, this is a coin-flip game from our perspective, and Chicago’s defense is playing better than advertised right now (12th in total EPA). Chicago as a pooch is a must-bet right now.

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