Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

CFB Total of the Year $$ big on Saturday. SUNDAY Card with a * NFL Conference Play of the Year with 2 100% Systems and 23-1 stat, we also have a TOP Total, the RED Play, 100% MLB N.L.C.S System and MLB. Comp play below

 The NFL Comp play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers at 1 eastern. Rob notes that road teams like the Colts that a dog of 7 or less are 1-5 straight up and to the spread coming off a neutral site game with less than 5 days rest. That system was perfect since 2003 until last week when Dallas came back to beat Houston. Pittsburgh has won 9 of 10 at home vs the Colts in the series. The Steelers have won and covered 4 of 5 at home off a loss. The Colts are 1-8 as a road dog off a win. The Steelers have been solid winning their first two here and if they could contain The Colts run game and Taylor they should get a cover here. Play on Pittsburgh. GL Rob V-

The Raiders' defensive efficiency, the Patriots' depleted secondary, and several profitable technical systems strongly support the road underdog. The Raiders have covered five straight games, going 4-1 during that stretch, and enter this matchup with a defense ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed and 11th in defensive success rate. New England's offense finally showed signs of improvement against Buffalo last week, but Drake Maye faced pressure on a career-high 21 dropbacks, raising concerns about his ability to sustain that performance against a Las Vegas defense that has been 0.8 points better than league average. The Patriots' most significant vulnerability is an injury-ravaged secondary that will be without starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, along with two reserve cornerbacks, potentially forcing multiple practice-squad players into meaningful roles. New England has ranked 13th in defensive EPA and 10th in success rate despite facing several quality offenses, but those season-long numbers substantially overstate its current defensive capabilities without its top two outside cornerbacks. Since the beginning of last season, the Patriots have allowed a positive 0.07 EPA per play across 312 defensive snaps without Gonzalez, compared with a negative 0.07 EPA per play when he is on the field, a differential that underscores his impact on the secondary.

Las Vegas quarterback Kirk Cousins should be positioned to exploit those coverage deficiencies, particularly through play-action concepts against a New England defense that has struggled to defend them effectively. Cousins ranks 8th in EPA efficiency against man coverage and is primed to exploit a New England defense that ranks 3rd in man coverage rate. Although the Raiders' receiving corps is thin with Jalen Nailor expected to miss the game, tight end Brock Bowers remains the focal point of the passing attack and presents a difficult matchup for New England's depleted coverage personnel. Bowers ranks 1st among tight ends in receiving grade against man coverage and should have a productive afternoon against a New England defense that frequently utilizes man coverage. The Raiders also benefit from outstanding pass protection at left tackle, where Kolton Miller leads all NFL tackles in pass-block win rate, providing Cousins an opportunity to attack downfield without excessive pressure.

The technical database supports Las Vegas through a system favoring conference underdogs of six points or fewer coming off a loss, which has produced a 315-245 ATS record (56.3%) since 2017. Since 1991, NFL road underdogs of less than +7 that won four or fewer games the previous season are 313-205 ATS (60.4%). The situational profile also supports fading short-priced home favorites in non-divisional games, as favorites laying four points or fewer in Weeks 1-9 are 255-208 ATS (55.1%) for the opposing side. With the Raiders' stronger defensive efficiency profile, Cousins facing an undermanned secondary, and multiple profitable technical indicators supporting the underdog, Las Vegas is Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 11.

Take New England (#462)

The video below offers my take on Jags - Eagles early start London Game and Las Vegas vs New England.  Here’s a brief write-up for Raiders - Patriots.

The Raiders are 4-0 ATS, the single most undervalued team in the NFL so far this season.  That said, the Patriots haven’t forgetten how the Raiders whipped them right here in Foxboro last year.  They’re catching Vegas off a tough divisional game traveling from West to East for an early start game; all ‘bet-against’ scenarios.  The Pats best game all season (beating Pittsburgh by three scores) is the only previous game they played at home; now 8-2 ATS in their last ten games here in New England.  If I’m playin’ I’m layin’.  Take the Patriots

Green Bay offers considerable value as a short home underdog against Chicago, particularly given the Bears' quarterback uncertainty, the Packers' historical success in this rivalry and several profitable technical systems favoring Matt LaFleur's team. Chicago enters at 3-1 following consecutive victories over Philadelphia (27-7) and the New York Jets (23-12), but the Bears must now navigate a hostile Lambeau Field environment with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent replacing the injured Caleb Williams. Bagent completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards against the Jets, but operating in Green Bay against a familiar divisional opponent presents a substantially different challenge, especially with the communication demands of a silent cadence. The Packers are only 2-2 and rank last in the NFL with 58 rushing yards per game, but Jordan Love provides a significant advantage in starting experience after completing 22 of 30 passes for 197 yards and two touchdowns in last week's 17-14 road victory over Tampa Bay. Green Bay's offensive line remains a legitimate concern, with its 22% pass-block win rate ranking as the worst through four games since 2017, making quick throws and protection adjustments essential against Chicago's aggressive pass rush. Nevertheless, the Bears' defense has surrendered 5.9 yards per play, providing Love opportunities to exploit coverage weaknesses if LaFleur can neutralize pressure through quicker passing concepts.

My technical database strongly supports Green Bay, beginning with home underdogs of fewer than six points coming off a road victory against opponents coming off a home win, a situation that has produced a 135-90 ATS record (60.0%) since 1989. Division home underdogs receiving fewer than four points with fewer than 10 days of rest have also gone 78-49 ATS (61.4%) since 1990, reinforcing the historical value of catching points in closely contested rivalry games. Another system favors teams averaging 19 points or fewer against opponents allowing 19 points or fewer when receiving no more than three points, producing a 73-48 ATS record (60.3%) since 2011. Green Bay fits that offensive-versus-defensive profile, scoring just 73 points through four games (18.25 per contest), while Chicago has allowed only 65 points (16.25 per game). Chicago's recent success also creates a potentially inflated market valuation, as road favorites coming off three consecutive home games have gone just 44-68 ATS (39.3%) since 1991, and the Bears now make precisely that scheduling transition.

LaFleur's historical performance adds another layer of support, with the Packers' head coach posting a 27-15 ATS record (64.3%) as an underdog and an impressive 11-3 ATS mark against Chicago. The Bears have also struggled in divisional competition, going 13-26 ATS (33.3%) against NFC North opponents since November 2019, while Green Bay has won eight consecutive October games. With the Bears laying points behind a backup quarterback, Green Bay coming off a confidence-building road victory, and multiple overlapping historical systems favoring the home underdog, take the Packers as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 11.

Seagrave is on a strong 19-13 (59%) run with his posted Free Picks since August 27th!

Next Winner HERE:

Jordan Love Passing Touchdowns Over 1.5 (+110):

We cashed this play in last week's article as Jordan Love has thrown for exactly two touchdown passes in four of his games to kick off the 2026 campaign. Love and the Green Bay Packers offense did a solid job against a blitz happy defense in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3rd, 41.9%) in Week 4. Now they face a similar defense as the Chicago Bears rank 4th in blitz rate (40.5%). The Bears defense looks better than it is as they faced weak offenses in the New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles and a Minnesota Vikings team playing without Kyler Murray. With that, Bryce Young is the only quarterback to eclipse this line against the Bears (3). Love threw four touchdown passes against Chicago the last time he faced them in a 31-27 playoff loss and I'm backing him to throw at least half of that on Sunday.

*Playable at -120 or better