Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

In recent years, Vance Joseph’s Denver defense has had the keys to slowing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Since returning to the Broncos as the DC for Sean Payton in 2023, Joseph’s platoon has allowed 19, 9, 16, 0 (no Mahomes), 19, and 13 (no Mahomes again) vs. Kansas City.

There also hasn’t been a Chiefs-Broncos scoreline since Payton arrived in Denver that has exceeded 41 points. The chess matches between coordinators Joseph and Chiefs counterpart Steve Spagnuolo have been compelling as the games have all moved at a similar slow pace, which makes this 43.5 “total” tonight at Arrowhead looked difficult to clear. Play Broncos-Chiefs “Under”

The case for Kansas City starts with buying Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at home for a relatively inexpensive price in a divisional game, where the market is essentially treating these teams as equals. Kansas City is coming off a disappointing 6-11 season, but its underlying profile was considerably better than that record suggests, particularly on defense, where the Chiefs allowed only 19.3 points per game and ranked sixth in scoring defense. The biggest problem was an offense that slipped to 21.3 points per game, but Kansas City made meaningful changes to address that exact weakness. Eric Bieniemy is back coordinating an offense that became too predictable last season, while Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III gives Mahomes the explosive running threat that was missing from a ground game that ranked only 25th in rushing offense. Walker rushed for 1,027 yards last season and forced 77 missed tackles during the regular season and playoffs, providing a major upgrade over a backfield that lacked big-play ability. Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton give Kansas City speed and explosiveness on the perimeter, while Travis Kelce remains Mahomes' most trusted possession target. Most importantly, Mahomes has been a full participant in practice after recovering from his knee injury, a major development considering how much Kansas City's offensive ceiling changes with him behind center. The offensive line does have a legitimate concern at left tackle with Josh Simmons sidelined, but Reid has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to scheme around protection problems, and Mahomes' quick processing gives Kansas City a chance to neutralize some of Denver's pass-rush advantage.

Denver deserves respect after going 14-3 and reaching the AFC Championship Game last season, but that performance also creates an elevated market perception that may be difficult to duplicate. The Broncos won 11 consecutive games at one point, yet their postseason run ended with only seven points in the AFC Championship Game after Bo Nix was injured, illustrating how quickly their offensive ceiling can fall when circumstances turn against them. Denver added Jaylen Waddle and should again possess one of the league's better defenses, but Kansas City still has the best quarterback in this matchup and now gets him back at Arrowhead in a primetime divisional opener. Kansas City's defense remains another major reason to lay the short number, as Steve Spagnuolo's unit ranked sixth in points allowed and added first-round defensive tackle Peter Woods and highly regarded rookie corner Mansoor Delane to a group that already features Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. The Chiefs' 2025 defense surrendered just 301.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, giving Kansas City a strong foundation while its revamped offense finds its footing.

The situational value is also appealing because Kansas City opened around -2.5 and remains available at that key number in parts of the market despite Denver receiving substantial betting support. Power-rating projections also support the favorite, with one current set of ratings making Kansas City roughly a five-point favorite rather than the -2.5 being offered. That creates value on a Chiefs team whose 2025 record obscures a defense that remained championship-caliber and an offense that has upgraded its backfield while getting Mahomes healthy again.

My technical database presents a consistent theme: the market has historically overvalued successful teams from the previous season when they return in Week 1 as road underdogs.

Technician’s Corner

• Kansas City is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in divisional games when neither team is favored by -5 or since November 2015;

• Week 1 home favorites are 71-44 ATS (61.7%) vs. opponents that finished above .500 the previous season. Kansas City qualifies as the home favorite against a Denver team coming off its 14-win season;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won 9+ games the previous season are just 44-71 ATS, meaning the play-against side has cashed 61.7% (71-44 ATS);

• The broader playoff version has also been profitable: Week 1 road underdogs coming off a playoff season are 25-44 ATS;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won more games than their opponent the previous season are 47-64 ATS, producing a 57.7% play-against rate. Denver's 14 wins, compared with Kansas City's 6, put the Broncos squarely in that fade situation.

With Mahomes back, Walker adding a badly needed explosive rushing dimension, Bieniemy reshaping the offense, and Kansas City playing at Arrowhead in a divisional opener, take the Chiefs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, September 14.