Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

This is almost entirely a systems-and-contrarian release.

In preseason games lined at 2.5 points or less, the majority number of bettors has gone only 17-32 ATS over the 2023-25 sample. When at least 59% of the tickets backed the home team, those home teams were just 22-31 ATS. The Rams qualify for both fades with roughly 82% of the bets and 83% of the money.

There is another independent corroborating angle because these are conference opponents: majority bettors backing one side in same-conference preseason games have performed poorly as well.

Our official outlaw line was New Orleans -1.5, and the Saints remain available around that number, so there is no meaningful chase.

Why not a Wise Guy? The quarterback component isn't nearly as attractive as the systems. Los Angeles has rookie Ty Simpson, who is exactly the kind of young, developmental quarterback worth respecting in August. The systems are strong enough to overcome that concern, but not enough to elevate the Saints alongside the three Wise Guy premium clients got.

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As of posting this release, I see Denver laying -6.0-points. I feel they win this game by a touchdown or more. So even if this game closes up to -7.0, I still like the Broncos.

Friday’s FREE WINNER: Denver Broncos.

Game 410.

6:00 PM PST/9:00 PM EST.

Both the Green Bay Packers and the Denver Broncos are expected to compete for Conference titles this season. Green Bay looks to be one of the top teams in the NFC, predicted to win 10.5-games. Denver is touted to win 9.5-games this season. In Week 1 of this preseason, the Packers took a beatdown on the road at the Steelers, 28-9. Meanwhile, also on the road, the Broncos thumped the Falcons, 27-7. Denver head, Coach, Sean Peyton reported his starters will play around 14 snaps in this “tune up” game. So. quarterback Bo Nix is expected see his first action since going down with a busted ankle in the divisional round last year. Behind him is Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger. Both looked good in the opening exhibition win. In their preseason opening loss, the Packers used some of their first teams, including quarterback, Jordan Love for just one series. Head coach, Matt LeFleur told the media his stars were once again be lightly used, limiting them to a drive or so in Denver. You know playing in Mile High Stadium isn’t easy for any visitor. It is one of the places that truly gives the home team a big advantage. Case in point, the Broncos are 7-0, straight up and 6-1 against the spread their last seven preseason games played at home. Just over the last three preseasons, they own a 7-0 SU overall record. Meanwhile, going back several August campaigns, the Packers are barely above .500 at 7-6 SU. Reports are Green Bay is going to be taking a large look at their third-string quarterback, Kyle McCord, while giving limited reps to Love and veteran backup, Taylor. You know, the Packers offensive line allowed five sacks in a week ago. I feel they’re in for another long night here tonight playing in one of the toughest places to play for any traveling team. I know this is a big number. But I expect the Denver Broncos to win by more than a touchdown. Take Denver. Thank you.

It's been a remarkable stretch of preseason success for Denver, August games in which no matter what Sean Payton insists, he likes to win. Eight straight, in fact, in preseason for the Broncos, with an average win margin of 20 ppg.

Payton's backup QBs (Jarrett Stidham and the mobile Sam Ehlinger) have proven they can move the offense in August, after Bo Nix, who likely gets a brief look at the outset tonight before Payton switches QBs. Last summer, Game 2 vs. the Cards was Stidham's while Ehlinger featured in the finale vs. the Saints; either works, while Stidham, who completed 30 of 38 passes last summer, might have been the NFL preseason MVP a year ago. Note Denver has also scored at least 27 points in each of those last eight preseason wins! Play Packers-Broncos "Over"

Jacksonville is taking 61% of all spread bets and 79% of the money despite now being the underdog. That is exactly the public-underdog profile worth attacking. In tight preseason games of 2.5 points or less, the majority number of bettors went only 17-32 ATS (34.6%) from 2023-25; that fade system is 5-1 ATS this preseason. When at least 59% of tickets backed the home team, those teams were just 22-31 ATS, with the fade again 5-1 this year.

Carolina adds another league-wide system: teams coming off double-digit preseason losses have rebounded significantly better on the road, going 61-43 ATS (58.7%) since 2013.

The qualification is the market. Our official outlaw line was Jacksonville -2.5, and Carolina has crossed through zero all the way to favorite. Normally that is a move to fade. Carolina's QB rotation also includes established veterans Kenny Pickett and Kyle Trask after Bryce Young, while Jacksonville could devote significant later-game snaps to younger Carter Bradley and Joey Aguilar. Those negatives prevent premium status.

Take #408 Panthers vs Jaguars Under

We’re staying on the Under trend in this Friday night preseason matchup. The Panthers and Jaguars are currently holding a joint practice, giving both coaching staffs an opportunity to get an extended look at their players before Friday's game.

Carolina has some encouraging developments offensively, particularly the growing Bryce Young–Tetairoa McMillan connection. Jonathon Brooks, Darren Waller, and Jalen Coker are also healthy, giving Young more weapons. However, protection remains a concern, and that's a major issue against a Jacksonville defense that looks deep and athletic.

The Panthers are also dealing with significant defensive injuries, including Tershawn Wharton and Nic Scourton, while Cam Jackson is now in concussion protocol. That could create some opportunities for Jacksonville, but we're expecting the Jaguars to emphasize evaluation rather than unleash the offense.

Jacksonville is coming off a 13-4 season and has plenty of talent on defense, including Travon Walker, Josh Hines-Allen, Davon Hamilton, and B.J. Green. With Liam Coen still undecided on how many starters will play, quarterback rotations and playing time remain major variables.

Week 1 of the preseason was dominated by the Under, and we're not jumping off that train yet. With both teams emphasizing defense and plenty of backup players expected to see action, we expect points to be difficult to come by.

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