Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Keep an eye on the line movement to trigger a free play. The broad preseason total profile points toward the UNDER. Preseason totals of 37 or higher have gone 575-438 UNDER since 2010 — 56.8%.

The personnel structure provides some additional support. Kyle Shanahan is expected to protect most established San Francisco starters, turning the game largely over to reserve units. San Francisco still has several live roster battles, but the first-unit offensive continuity seen during meaningful regular-season action will not be present. (49ers Webzone)

Las Vegas is similarly focused on evaluation. The Raiders continue to highlight young players such as Fernando Mendoza entering the finale, while their remaining roster battles take priority over regular-season offensive game planning. (Las Vegas Raiders)

The public is leaning the other way on the total, with roughly 55% of tickets and 59% of money on the OVER, providing modest additional support for the UNDER.

The system is profitable but materially weaker than the premium side systems, so this stays at Free Play level.

FREE PLAY: 49ers-Raiders UNDER 38.5

Betting parameters: Play UNDER 38 or higher. Pass at 37.5 or lower.

Take #110 Commanders vs Ravens Under

We like the Under in this one. With the starters expected to sit, we’re looking at two teams leaning heavily on their backup quarterbacks, which should make points tough to come by.

Washington has Sam Hartman and Athan Kaliakmanis available, while Baltimore is expected to turn to Tyler Huntley. Kaliakmanis actually looked sharp in Week 2, completing 11-of-14 for 162 yards, but Washington's offense still managed only 13 points against Detroit.

The Ravens also scored just 13 points in their previous preseason game against Minnesota, while their young defense has been playing extremely well. Baltimore's defense produced a strong 13-3 win over the Vikings and generated consistent pressure and turnovers.

With limited offensive firepower, backup quarterbacks, and two defenses that have shown they can dictate preseason games, we're expecting another low-scoring affair.

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Take #103 Patriots ML Over Browns

We like the Patriots in this preseason finale. New England is coming off a 24-21 victory over Philadelphia, getting excellent quarterback play from Tommy DeVito and rookie Behren Morton. DeVito threw for 151 yards and a touchdown, while Morton added 129 yards and a score.

The Patriots also ran the football effectively, and their overall depth has looked impressive throughout the preseason. Morton in particular has continued to make a strong case for a roster spot.

Cleveland is coming off a brutal 31-7 loss to Buffalo, while the Browns are expected to rest their starters for the finale. Dillon Gabriel and Taylen Green are expected to handle the quarterback duties.

That's where we see the biggest advantage. New England has two quarterbacks who have been playing well and building confidence, while Cleveland will be turning to its younger depth for the finale.

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Take #102 Bills Over Steelers

We’re backing the Buffalo Bills in this preseason matchup. Pittsburgh was shut out at home by the Jets last week, and the Steelers’ backup quarterbacks struggled badly. Will Howard finished 10-of-15 for 74 yards with two interceptions, while Drew Allar went 11-of-23 for 110 yards.

The Steelers also managed just 98 rushing yards on 26 attempts, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. With Aaron Rodgers not expected to play this preseason, Pittsburgh will once again rely heavily on Howard and Allar.

Buffalo looked much sharper in its opener, rolling past Cleveland 31-7. Kyle Allen was excellent, completing 10-of-12 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown, while Shane Buechele added 111 yards and a score.

That quarterback depth is the biggest difference for us. Buffalo has two experienced, capable options, while Pittsburgh's young backups struggled to move the football last week.

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Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.