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Jacksonville is taking 61% of all spread bets and 79% of the money despite now being the underdog. That is exactly the public-underdog profile worth attacking. In tight preseason games of 2.5 points or less, the majority number of bettors went only 17-32 ATS (34.6%) from 2023-25; that fade system is 5-1 ATS this preseason. When at least 59% of tickets backed the home team, those teams were just 22-31 ATS, with the fade again 5-1 this year.

Carolina adds another league-wide system: teams coming off double-digit preseason losses have rebounded significantly better on the road, going 61-43 ATS (58.7%) since 2013.

The qualification is the market. Our official outlaw line was Jacksonville -2.5, and Carolina has crossed through zero all the way to favorite. Normally that is a move to fade. Carolina's QB rotation also includes established veterans Kenny Pickett and Kyle Trask after Bryce Young, while Jacksonville could devote significant later-game snaps to younger Carter Bradley and Joey Aguilar. Those negatives prevent premium status.

Take #408 Panthers vs Jaguars Under

We’re staying on the Under trend in this Friday night preseason matchup. The Panthers and Jaguars are currently holding a joint practice, giving both coaching staffs an opportunity to get an extended look at their players before Friday's game.

Carolina has some encouraging developments offensively, particularly the growing Bryce Young–Tetairoa McMillan connection. Jonathon Brooks, Darren Waller, and Jalen Coker are also healthy, giving Young more weapons. However, protection remains a concern, and that's a major issue against a Jacksonville defense that looks deep and athletic.

The Panthers are also dealing with significant defensive injuries, including Tershawn Wharton and Nic Scourton, while Cam Jackson is now in concussion protocol. That could create some opportunities for Jacksonville, but we're expecting the Jaguars to emphasize evaluation rather than unleash the offense.

Jacksonville is coming off a 13-4 season and has plenty of talent on defense, including Travon Walker, Josh Hines-Allen, Davon Hamilton, and B.J. Green. With Liam Coen still undecided on how many starters will play, quarterback rotations and playing time remain major variables.

Week 1 of the preseason was dominated by the Under, and we're not jumping off that train yet. With both teams emphasizing defense and plenty of backup players expected to see action, we expect points to be difficult to come by.

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Take #410 Packers vs Broncos Under

We're staying on the Under here and riding the preseason trend. Green Bay was held to just nine points against Pittsburgh, with Jordan Love going 3-of-5 and moving the Packers into field-goal range. Love is expected to see a little more action this time around, which should give Green Bay's offense a boost.

Denver is coming off a dominant 27-7 win over Atlanta, including a pick-six, and Bo Nix is expected to make his preseason debut. He should see roughly 10-15 snaps before Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger take over.

Green Bay will also rotate Tyrod Taylor and Kyle McCord behind Love. That quarterback rotation, combined with limited starter reps, gives us plenty of reason to expect the offenses to struggle sustaining drives.

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Take #406 Jets vs Steelers Under

We're going right back to the Under in this preseason matchup. The Under went 12-4 last week, and we're riding that trend rather than overreacting to a few high-scoring results.

The Steelers opened preseason play with a 28-9 victory over Green Bay. The quarterbacks put up respectable numbers, but much of that production came against second- and third-team defenses, so we're not putting too much stock into those numbers. Aaron Rodgers is also expected to sit again.

The Jets are in an interesting rebuilding phase. They added Geno Smith and several veteran defensive pieces while moving on from Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner for draft capital. With New York seemingly positioning itself for a potential quarterback selection in 2027, the long-term priority is developing the roster rather than chasing preseason wins.

New York lost 24-16 to Tampa Bay last week, a game that went Over its total. But that was one of the exceptions in an otherwise Under-heavy opening week.

With preseason quarterback rotations, vanilla offensive game plans and defenses generally dictating the action, we're expecting scoring opportunities to be limited.

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Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.