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The pace seems to be picking up a bit in preseason action this weekend as four of the first five games across Thursday and Friday would clear the posted "totals" number...no surprise if that trend continues at State Farm Stadium.

The CardS plan to use Gardner Minshew at QB into the 3rd Q after he completed 14 of 16 last week vs. the Raiders, with Kedon Slovis, who has moved the offense, likely on in relief with Miami rookie Carson Beck nursing sore ribs. (Jacoby Brissett not expected to play.) The Big Red has scored at a 29 pg clip the first two games running the new Mike LaFleur offense. Meanwhile, a spirited backup QB battle wages in Dallas, with the next phase of the Sam Howell-Joe Milton debate tonight. Play Cowboys-Cardinals "Over"

Take #414 Falcons vs Colts Under

We like the Under in this preseason matchup, with both defenses showing plenty of promise during joint practices.

Indianapolis has been getting strong play from its secondary, including a pick-six by Justin Walley against Tua Tagovailoa. Adding Sauce Gardner to a room that already features Kenny Moore II gives the Colts plenty of talent on the back end. Up front, Laiatu Latu has been generating pressure, while DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart provide veteran strength on the defensive line.

Atlanta has also made some noise defensively. The addition of Za'Darius Smith gives the Falcons another proven pass rusher to pair with Samson Ebukam, Zach Harrison, and Brandon Dorlus. Despite losing Jalon Walker for the season, the rest of the defensive front has reportedly stepped up during these practices.

With both defenses creating pressure, strong secondary play on display, and preseason offenses still working through quarterback rotations, we expect points to be difficult to come by.

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This is almost entirely a systems-and-contrarian release.

In preseason games lined at 2.5 points or less, the majority number of bettors has gone only 17-32 ATS over the 2023-25 sample. When at least 59% of the tickets backed the home team, those home teams were just 22-31 ATS. The Rams qualify for both fades with roughly 82% of the bets and 83% of the money.

There is another independent corroborating angle because these are conference opponents: majority bettors backing one side in same-conference preseason games have performed poorly as well.

Our official outlaw line was New Orleans -1.5, and the Saints remain available around that number, so there is no meaningful chase.

Why not a Wise Guy? The quarterback component isn't nearly as attractive as the systems. Los Angeles has rookie Ty Simpson, who is exactly the kind of young, developmental quarterback worth respecting in August. The systems are strong enough to overcome that concern, but not enough to elevate the Saints alongside the three Wise Guy premium clients got.

Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

Washington Commanders Over/Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins

4% Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 Regular Season Wins (+105)

UPDATE 8/9 12:30 PM EST: Washington just lost their top OL LT Tunsil for probably the season, this line could move a little, get it in!

Washington went 5-12 last year, and I’m not buying a three-win jump.

Jayden Daniels played only 7 games in 2025 and dealt with a knee sprain, hamstring injury and dislocated elbow. He also led all NFL quarterbacks with 8.3 rushing attempts per game. After 148 carries as a rookie, his style continues to expose him to significantly more contact than the average QB. Durability has to be priced into this number.

Washington also replaced both coordinators. David Blough takes over the offense and Daronte Jones takes over the defense, and both will be first-time NFL play callers.

They’ve added some names on defense, but per PFF, only 2 projected defensive starters carry grades over 70. This was a bad defense last year, and I’m not convinced the makeover fixes it overnight.

They also have only 8 true home games, with the Colts “home” game being played in London, and they open @ Philadelphia and @ Dallas.

Looking at the first 11 games, I project Washington to be favored in only 1 or 2 of them.

I don’t need Washington to be bad.

7-10 cashes this ticket.

Coming off 5 wins, with Daniels’ injury history and rushing workload, two first-time play callers, a questionable defense and this schedule, 7.5 is too high.