Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

FREE PLAY — JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA UNDER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (+107) — 8:15 ET

Smith-Njigba's receiving volume creates an opportunity to take advantage of an inflated reception total.

An independent projection calls for 5.9 receptions against a market line of 6.5, with the UNDER available at plus money.

At +107, the wager needs to win only 48.3% of the time to break even. The projection identifies a 13.9% betting edge at the listed price.

Seattle enters a difficult road matchup against Denver, and the Seahawks do not necessarily need an exceptionally high-volume passing performance to win.

Seven receptions are required to beat this wager. The combination of a lower projected reception total and an attractive plus-money return supports the UNDER.

Play to: UNDER 6.5 receptions at even money or better.

FREE PLAY — BO NIX UNDER 206.5 PASSING YARDS — 8:15 ET

Seattle presents one of the NFL's toughest passing matchups, ranking first in net yards per pass attempt allowed. Through its first five games, the Seahawks have not allowed an opposing quarterback to exceed 189 passing yards.

Denver's passing offense has been particularly conservative. Nix managed only 123 passing yards on 27 attempts against the Chargers, and his average intended air yards per attempt is just 5.2, substantially below the league average.

Since the beginning of the 2025 season, including the playoffs, only ten opposing quarterbacks have exceeded 206.5 passing yards against Seattle.

The combination of Denver's limited downfield passing attack and Seattle's exceptional pass defense makes the UNDER attractive.

Play to: UNDER 200.5 passing yards.

Seagrave is on a strong 20-15 (57%) run with his posted Free Picks since August 27th!

Next Winner HERE:

AJ Barner Receptions Over 2.5 (-118):

AJ Barner is coming off a game where he caught 3 of 5 targets for 20 yards in a 32-29 loss against the San Francisco 49ers. Barner also thrived against a blitz heavy Washington Commanders defense in Week 3 as he caught 5 of 9 targets for 69 yards. The Denver Broncos love to bring the pressure as they have blitzed at the 8th highest rate in the NFL. The Broncos have also allowed 8th most yards and 15th most receptions to opposing tight ends on the season. Those numbers obviously don't jump off the page, but we have already seen three tight ends eclipse this line including Charlie Kolar (3), Gorge Kittle (4) and Travis Kelce (3). The Seahawks new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury is a former tight end coach that has leaned on the position more and more in recent weeks. Sam Darnold will definitely need to utilize his safety blanket to offset the pressure and crowd noise while playing on the road in a hostile environment.

*Playable at -135 or better

This is a free play on DAL.

We saw a record 51 turnovers in Sunday's NFL games, and Green Bay was one of the teams that benefited the most from that. Their blowout win over the Bears came thanks to five Chicago turnovers. The Packers wins have come in overtime at the Jets in a game that New York dominated in the box score and should have won. They beat practice squad quarterback in Tampa and they won at home against Chicago's 2nd and 3rd string QBs in a game effected by turnovers. That gives them a grand total of zero legit wins if you are asking me. Dallas is still elite offensively, and the Pack aren't the best equipped to take advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Pittsburgh is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings with Tampa Bay, but these cross-conference foes have not met since the Steelers' 20-18 home win in October 2022 when Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky were running the offense. Tampa had some extra time to prep for this one after winning in Dallas last Thursday as a 9.5-point 'dog. Jalon Daniels was very impressive in his first career start, going 19-of-25 with only one sack and no turnovers. Bucky Irving added 165 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns. The vibes are also high in Pittsburgh this week after the Steelers earned a nice home win over the Colts. Pittsburgh's last three games have seen an average of 54.7 points per game, with all three of those contests flying over their respective totals. Jaylen Warren took another step forward in the Steelers' offense, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries to go along with 87 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. After throwing two interceptions the previous week against the Browns, Aaron Rodgers played a clean game against the Colts' defense but he’s beginning to run out of weapons. Running back Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Michael Pittman have both missed extended time, and fellow receiver Roman Wilson is now expected to miss multiple weeks with a bad finger. You're now looking at a Steelers' receiving corps that features DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard and a slew of tight ends and running backs with a 42-year-old quarterback. That's not the type of team we're looking to lay points with on the road at the moment. And while the black-and-gold will undoubtedly travel well to Tampa and make an impact in the noise department, playing in South Florida is still difficult. The Bengals and Dolphins played one of the hottest October games in NFL history last week. That might be something to monitor for a Steelers team that hasn't left the Northeast this season (heck, they didn't even leave the Northeast in the preseason either). Tampa had extra time to rest and prep for this one. And with the current state of the NFC South, the Bucs can be right back in the division hunt with a win on Sunday. Play Tampa Bay Bucs