Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

(471) Los Angeles Rams at (472) Las Vegas Raiders: Spread

4% Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (-120) ***THIS IS A 4% CLIENT RELEASE PLAY***

UPDATE 10/23 10:30 PM EST: Here is my full video breakdown and analysis on YouTube:

If you can’t see the link, search YouTube for: The Mad Russian Wagertalk

UPDATE 10/23 10:55 PM EST: CLIENTS... PLEASE TRY AND GET PLAYS IN EARLY!!! WE ARE CONTINUING TO BEAT LINE MOVEMENT EVERY WEEK, TIME DOES MATTER. LINE NOW +3.5 W/ HEAVY JUICE, I STILL LIKE THE NUMBER. +3, BUY HOOK IF REASONABLE.

The Rams have suffered some enormous losses on both sides of the football. Wide receiver Davante Adams is sidelined with a hamstring injury, while defensive linemen Poona Ford and Kobie Turner are also unavailable. Those are three major contributors, and the defensive losses could be particularly damaging. Ford and Turner are important pieces of the interior defensive line, and losing both creates opportunities for the Raiders to establish their running game with Ashton Jeanty.

The injury situation has become even more concerning for Los Angeles. Puka Nacua is questionable after injuring his calf during Thursday's practice, and starting linebacker Nate Landman has been ruled out with a concussion. Cornerback Trent McDuffie is also questionable after missing all three practices this week. With Adams already sidelined, any limitation involving Nacua would be another substantial blow to Matthew Stafford's passing attack.

Las Vegas has been competitive despite its 3–3 record, covering five of its first six games. The Raiders nearly knocked off Buffalo last week, losing 33–30, and Kirk Cousins has given this offense an experienced quarterback capable of keeping games close. Meanwhile, the Rams have struggled to turn their yardage into consistent victories, and Stafford has already thrown six interceptions this season.

This is a favorable situation for a home underdog facing a heavily depleted opponent. The Rams still have dangerous offensive weapons, but their injury situation, defensive losses and disappointing start make it difficult for me to justify laying more than a field goal on the road. We secured Las Vegas +4.5, and I still like the Raiders at +3.5. Give me Las Vegas and the points.

2-0 TO START WEEK

34-19-1 LAST-54 NFL 4% PLAYS

+48 UNITS IN NFL SINCE 11/2/25

+52 UNITS SINCE 11/27/25 ON 4% OR 5% PLAYS

14-6 LAST-20 NFL MONEYLINE PLAYS

#1 IN NFL LAST-3 DAYS

#1 FUTURES 2-YEARS STRAIGHT ON NFL REGULAR SEASON

69% CAREER ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ATS OR ML

19-8 LAST-26 ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ATS OR ML

64% ON NFL PROPS LAST YEAR

+41 UNITS IN NFL REGULAR SEASON FUTURES LAST TWO YEARS

15-7 LAST-22 FREE PLAYS

This is a free play on Under.

Now I believe that the Saints might be better than their record indicates, and I have the opposite opinion of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I did entertain a play on the dog in this Paris game, but the weather report forced me to call an audible. With high wind advisories, this game could be decided with the ground game. That doesn't bode well for an ineffective Saints rushing offense. It could also slow the game down, and that has me looking at an under.

GL,

Jesse Schule

The Falcons badly need a win after dropping their last 2 at home, and we’ll play the number here against a 49ers group that is battered with injuries. Some notable names that will be missing for San Francisco include Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and Nick Bosa. This obviously puts a lot of pressure on Brock Purdy as he’ll have limited options. Atlanta’s defense is 12th in the league in EPA per play, and Bijan Robinson is the best back in the NFL. While Michael Penix grades out average, this is a live home dog role and we want the points in our pocket. Take the Falcons.

Take Seattle (#474)

Lets start with the premise that these are two very good teams, which I still believe despite the Seahawks 3-3 start.  It’s surely worth noting that Seattle’s three losses have come by a combined eight points  - they’re a couple of field goals away from behind 6-0 instead of 3-3.  From an urgency standpoint, we’ve got KC fat and happy off a bye and a win — in a divisional sandwich spot with Denver on deck — while Seattle has just lost back-2-back heartbreakers.  Lay it or don’t play it!  Take the Seahawks.

Take Pittsburgh - New Orleans First Half UNDER (#451-452)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below features Free Plays with analysis for the early start Paris Game (Steelers vs Saints) and the Bengals - Ravens game.  Here’s a brief write-up for New Orleans vs Pittsburgh

The Steelers offense has been consistently getting off to slow starts, with Aaron Rodgers ‘feeling his way’ into games.  Last week, at the two minute warning of the first half, Pittsburgh had a grand total of 35 passing yards.  New Orleans has done virtually nothing on offense in the first half all year — their three competitive games have all been ‘come from behind’.  Expect a slow start in Paris between these two slow starting teams!  Take the First Half UNDER.