Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

I'm either going to look like an absolute dummy or brilliant genius with this pick. I have the utmost confidence it will be the latter. There's no question that New England is the far better team on paper. However, NFL teams that are far better than their opponents don't always win and more importantly cover as a sizable favorite. New England is coming off a 30-24 loss in their previous game on the Thursday night national televised contest. That loss dropped their season record to 4-3. Miami is coming off their first win of the season 28-25 over the Jets as a 3.5-point road underdog. They've now played 3 very completive games in a row. Prior to last week's win they lost their previous 2 games to Cincinnati (4-2) by 7 and by 5 at Minnesota (6-0). I'm not going to go out on a limb and call for an outright upset but I wouldn't be totally shocked if it occurred. But I like "The Fish" to say inside this number as a division home underdog.

Bet the Miami Dolphins as a point-spread home underdog of +6.0 or higher.

Since Brian Schottenheimer took over as head coach of the Cowboys, Dallas is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a home favorite against anyone not named the Commanders. The average line was Dallas -5, and they lost by an average of 8 points per game.

This Arizona franchise has had Dallas' number for years. Arizona has won and covered 4 straight in this series, and 8 of the last 9. And they want to give us a full TD with the Cardinals here? Against that porous Cowboys defense? I'm a lifelong, die-hard Cowboys fan, but I'll gladly take that TD with Arizona.

Take Cleveland (#255)

The “Daily Double’ video below offers my take for Lions - Vikings and Steelers - Browns in Week 8 NFL action on Sunday.  Here’s a brief write-up for Cleveland - Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are coming back from Europe with no rest, a ‘negative expectation’ betting situation so far this season to the tune of 0-fer 2026.  The Steelers also rank #29 in red zone touchdown percentage - not where I want my favorites. Meanwhile, that Browns defense has been just fine without Myles Garrett — they lead the NFL In tackles for loss and Rank #6 in sacks, with eleven different defenders notching at least one.  The Steelers just faced Indy, Tampa and New Orleans over the last three weeks, taking a big step up in defensive class here.  Too many points!  Take the Browns

Seagrave is on a solid 25-19 (57%) run with his posted Free Picks since August 27th!

Next Winner HERE:

Michael Penix Jr. Passing Yards Under 229.5 (-114):

Michael Penix Jr has fallen short of this line in 3 of his last 4 games while just creeping past this number with 240 passing yards in his lone over. Now he draws a brutal matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary that has ranked 2nd in opponent drop back EPA and 8th in opponent drop back success rate. Tampa Bay just crushed the Carolina Panthers in a 43-13 victory where they held Bryce Young to a messily 163 passing yards. We have also seen multiple opposing quarterbacks fall well short of their respective passing yard totals including Jordan Love (197), Kyler Murray (168) and Joe Burrow (254). The Buccaneers grade out as the 4th best collection of cornerbacks in the league at defending pass catchers so the Falcons may find it much easier to move the ball on the ground.

*Playable at 225.5 or better

(239) Minnesota Vikings at (240) Detroit Lions: Spread

4% Detroit Lions -3.0 (-120) **36-22-2 LAST-60 NFL 4% PLAYS & 15-8 LAST-23 FREE PLAYS / THIS IS A 4% CLIENT RELEASE PLAY**

Here is my full video breakdown and analysis on YouTube:

If you can’t see the link, search YouTube for: The Mad Russian Wagertalk

This is a HUGE DOUBLE REVENGE spot for Dan Campbell and the Lions. Minnesota swept Detroit last season, including a humiliating 23-10 Christmas Day defeat that eliminated the Lions from playoff contention. The Vikings sacked Jared Goff 10 TIMES in those 2 meetings, and Detroit committed 6 turnovers in the Christmas loss. You can bet Campbell and Goff haven't forgotten! Now the last undefeated team in football comes into Ford Field, where Detroit is 3-0 this season, with enormous NFC North implications.

Minnesota's 6-0 record is impressive, but its offense is producing HISTORICALLY BAD numbers for an undefeated team. The Vikings have scored just 9 OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS in 6 games, including only 4 in their last 5 WINS! Here's the incredible part: Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs has scored 9 touchdowns BY HIMSELF! That's right, 1 Detroit player has scored as many touchdowns as Minnesota's ENTIRE OFFENSE. The Vikings have been surviving behind an outstanding defense and a +7 turnover differential, but their first 6 opponents have a combined 16-25 record. They're stepping WAY UP in competition Sunday.

This is where STYLES MAKE FIGHTS! Minnesota's defense leads the NFL in blitz rate at an astonishing 70.8%, but Detroit has the perfect quarterback to attack that approach. Goff has a 123.3 passer rating against the blitz this season, completing 70% of his passes with 6 TDs and ZERO interceptions! Overall, Goff has thrown 14 TDs without a single pick, while Detroit averages 30.7 points per game. Minnesota's defense is legitimate, allowing just 12.3 points per game, but this is easily its toughest offensive test of the season.

Don't let Detroit's narrow 20-17 win over Green Bay last Sunday fool you. The Lions OUTGAINED the Packers 415-324, recorded 26 first downs, and moved the football consistently. Two lost fumbles kept Green Bay in that game. Detroit has scored at least 20 points in EVERY game this season and 30+ in 4 of its 6 contests. If the Lions protect the football, this offense is capable of putting Minnesota in an uncomfortable position where its defense can no longer carry the team.

Minnesota also has concerns up front. Starting LG Donovan Jackson is on IR, blocking TE Josh Oliver is unavailable, and Aaron Jones has been dealing with a knee injury. Kyler Murray has already taken 12 sacks in just 4 starts and hasn't thrown for 250 yards in ANY of them. Now he faces Aidan Hutchinson, who leads NFL edge rushers with 42 pressures, and Alim McNeill, who has another 29 from the interior. If Detroit jumps ahead and forces Murray into obvious passing situations, I LOVE the Lions' chances to control this game. Detroit has the superior offense, home field, DOUBLE REVENGE motivation, and a terrific schematic matchup against Minnesota's aggressive defense. Give me DETROIT -3 to hand Minnesota its 1st loss of the season!

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