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(451) Philadelphia Eagles at (452) Jacksonville Jaguars: Spread ***This is a 4% Client Release Play***

4% Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-120) Fight for best number!!! Still some -6.5 out there!!!

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Jacksonville is 3-1 and playing excellent football on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars entered this week No. 2 in DVOA, No. 2 in point differential and top six in defensive EPA/play. They’ve scored 104 points, allowed only 53, turned it over just twice and forced eight takeaways. Trevor Lawrence was extremely efficient last week, completing 18-of-23 for 227 yards in the road win at Cincinnati.

The biggest mismatch is Jacksonville’s defense against a Philadelphia offense that is getting crushed by injuries and poor execution. Philly went 0-for-12 on third down against the Rams and was shut out in the second half. The offensive line is a mess: Landon Dickerson is on IR, Cam Jurgens is in concussion protocol, Lane Johnson missed last week and Fred Johnson is also hurt. Philly has already allowed 12 sacks, and only Jordan Mailata and Tyler Steen remain in their original projected spots.

The skill-position injuries are just as bad. Saquon Barkley injured his hamstring and is uncertain, Tank Bigsby is on IR, DeVonta Smith has been dealing with a hamstring injury, Dallas Goedert has an MCL/knee injury and Hollywood Brown has an ankle issue. The defense is banged up too, with Jalen Carter playing through a hairline wrist fracture, Zack Baun dealing with a concussion and Marcus Epps injured. Philadelphia’s defense was also forced to play 83 snaps last week. Even more concerning, the Eagles have 0 defensive takeaways through four games. To me, that lack of disruption and energy is another red flag for a defense that has not looked nearly as aggressive or connected as it should.

The travel/preparation edge strongly favors Jacksonville. The Jaguars have played 14 London games since 2013, more than any team in the league, and they’ve repeatedly used London as a second home. Philadelphia is practicing in the U.S. and not leaving until Friday, taking an overnight flight before playing Sunday morning Eastern time. Jacksonville understands this setup better than anyone.

I also think the pressure on Nick Sirianni is becoming part of the handicap. Last week Philly led the Rams by 10 late and faced 4th-and-goal from the 2. Instead of kicking the field goal to go up 13, Sirianni went for the touchdown. They failed, Los Angeles drove 98 yards for a touchdown, and Philadelphia eventually lost 24-20. Sirianni admitted afterward that the decision falls on him. We’re also seeing visible frustration from players, and I believe he is getting dangerously close to losing control of this team if the offensive dysfunction continues.

Jacksonville is healthier, playing better, protecting the football, creating turnovers and has the far better London setup. Philadelphia is injured across multiple position groups, struggling offensively and making a late overseas trip. This does not feel like a neutral-field game to me.

FREE PICK on Detroit Lions (ATS) | Good until -6.0.

Detroit hasn't looked incredible this season so far either. But, I'm still anticipating better results this year opposed to last year's non-playoff season. Detroit's offense is definitely good enough for it to go far this season. It's the defense which is lacking and that could change this weekend. Arizona lost by double digits to a backup QB NYG team. The Cards lost to the Niners in the week before. Go with Detroit.