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AJ Barner Receptions Over 2.5 (-118):

AJ Barner is coming off a game where he caught 3 of 5 targets for 20 yards in a 32-29 loss against the San Francisco 49ers. Barner also thrived against a blitz heavy Washington Commanders defense in Week 3 as he caught 5 of 9 targets for 69 yards. The Denver Broncos love to bring the pressure as they have blitzed at the 8th highest rate in the NFL. The Broncos have also allowed 8th most yards and 15th most receptions to opposing tight ends on the season. Those numbers obviously don't jump off the page, but we have already seen three tight ends eclipse this line including Charlie Kolar (3), Gorge Kittle (4) and Travis Kelce (3). The Seahawks new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury is a former tight end coach that has leaned on the position more and more in recent weeks. Sam Darnold will definitely need to utilize his safety blanket to offset the pressure and crowd noise while playing on the road in a hostile environment.

*Playable at -135 or better

This is a free play on DAL.

We saw a record 51 turnovers in Sunday's NFL games, and Green Bay was one of the teams that benefited the most from that. Their blowout win over the Bears came thanks to five Chicago turnovers. The Packers wins have come in overtime at the Jets in a game that New York dominated in the box score and should have won. They beat practice squad quarterback in Tampa and they won at home against Chicago's 2nd and 3rd string QBs in a game effected by turnovers. That gives them a grand total of zero legit wins if you are asking me. Dallas is still elite offensively, and the Pack aren't the best equipped to take advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Pittsburgh is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings with Tampa Bay, but these cross-conference foes have not met since the Steelers' 20-18 home win in October 2022 when Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky were running the offense. Tampa had some extra time to prep for this one after winning in Dallas last Thursday as a 9.5-point 'dog. Jalon Daniels was very impressive in his first career start, going 19-of-25 with only one sack and no turnovers. Bucky Irving added 165 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns. The vibes are also high in Pittsburgh this week after the Steelers earned a nice home win over the Colts. Pittsburgh's last three games have seen an average of 54.7 points per game, with all three of those contests flying over their respective totals. Jaylen Warren took another step forward in the Steelers' offense, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries to go along with 87 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. After throwing two interceptions the previous week against the Browns, Aaron Rodgers played a clean game against the Colts' defense but he’s beginning to run out of weapons. Running back Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Michael Pittman have both missed extended time, and fellow receiver Roman Wilson is now expected to miss multiple weeks with a bad finger. You're now looking at a Steelers' receiving corps that features DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard and a slew of tight ends and running backs with a 42-year-old quarterback. That's not the type of team we're looking to lay points with on the road at the moment. And while the black-and-gold will undoubtedly travel well to Tampa and make an impact in the noise department, playing in South Florida is still difficult. The Bengals and Dolphins played one of the hottest October games in NFL history last week. That might be something to monitor for a Steelers team that hasn't left the Northeast this season (heck, they didn't even leave the Northeast in the preseason either). Tampa had extra time to rest and prep for this one. And with the current state of the NFC South, the Bucs can be right back in the division hunt with a win on Sunday. Play Tampa Bay Bucs

This is a free play on ATL moneyline.

The line suggests that Caleb Williams is set to return after suffering what appeared to be a career ending injury against the Vikings. The status of RB1 Kyle Monangai is even more uncertain, and if he does return he will likely not be 100 percent given the turf toe diagnosis. The Bears lead the NFL in rushing, but it's a tough matchup against the Falcons defense that has been one of the top units versus the run. The Falcons are the #2 ranked rushing offense, and the Bears defense doesn't matchup well against Bijan Robinson. If both starting QBs play, this is a case of the wrong team favored IMO.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on Carolina.

The Eagles appeared to have punted on the season heading into their game in London versus Jacksonville. We saw that line moved from -2.5 all the way to -7.5 at kickoff. We saw a far more competitive game than most people expected, and the Eagles really should have won. The fact that they did lose, combined with the way they lost, combined with the international travel sets them up for a huge let down. The injuries have piled up, leaving them with 4th string and practice squad running backs this week. Carolina ranks 31st in the NFL against the run, allowing 156 yards per game. Can the Eagles exploit that with a thin offensive line and practice squad running backs? My thought is that they probably can't.

GL,

Jesse Schule