The UNDER is my preferred play Monday night in Atlanta-New Orleans, with the technical profile pointing strongly toward a lower-scoring NFC South battle despite some appealing individual pieces in both passing games. New Orleans quarterback Tyler Shough has played well, earning a 79.1 overall PFF grade and 79.6 passing grade, but his offense has become extremely pass-dependent; Shough ranks second among qualified quarterbacks with 132 attempts, while the Saints have gotten very little production from their running backs. Alvin Kamara has produced only 51 rushing yards on 18 carries (2.8 YPC) with a 56.8 PFF rushing grade, while Travis Etienne has 129 yards on 31 carries and has yet to score a rushing touchdown, leaving New Orleans without a consistently productive ground attack. Etienne aggravated a hamstring injury during the Saints' Week 3 loss to the Raiders, landing him on IR. Kamara will assume RB1 duties for New Orleans, a role he carried through the first nine years of his 10-year NFL career.
Protection is another potential obstacle to sustained drives, as Saints tackle Asim Richards owns just a 50.5 PFF pass-blocking grade, ranking 64th among 70 qualified tackles, while allowing eight pressures on 102 snaps. Atlanta's coverage personnel also matches up reasonably well with the short and intermediate passing game: PFF currently ranks the Falcons second in linebacker coverage, seventh in cornerback coverage, and eighth in safety coverage in Juwan Johnson's individual matchup profile.
My technical database is even more compelling, beginning with New Orleans going 24-11 (68.6%) to the Under against NFC South opponents since 2020 and 7-0 to the Under on Monday Night Football since 2020. Atlanta brings an equally strong team-specific profile, with Falcons primetime games producing an 18-5 Under record (78.3%) since December 2017 and generating a 49.4% ROI. The broader Monday-night situation is exceptionally strong: games with spreads between -6.5 and +6.5 and totals from 40 through 48.5 are 102-44 (69.9%) to the Under, while divisional evening affairs with totals of at least 45 points are188-126 (59.9%) UNDER since 1990. Moreover, competitively priced Monday games with totals of 42 or higher are 166-119 (58.2%) to the Under. The situational profile adds further support, as Monday-night favorites coming off a loss are 68-42 (61.8%) to the Under, and that record improves to 56-29 (65.9%) UNDER when the favorite is coming off an upset loss.
Finally, teams with at least seven days of rest on both sides have produced a 150-101 (59.8%) UNDER record since 2015, another indication that additional preparation time tends to benefit these defenses more than the offenses in this spot. With New Orleans lacking an efficient running game, Atlanta having the coverage personnel to challenge the Saints' high-volume passing attack, and several of the database's strongest Monday-night and divisional systems pointing to the same result, take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, October 5.
