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Marc David's NFL Free Pick

We really like road underdog in this matchup. The Ravens (3-1) will be without Lamar Jackson, and the market has overreacted. Tyler Huntley is a functional backup with 16 career starts, and Derrick Henry, a top-three back in football, doesn’t need an elite quarterback to move the chains. The Ravens are already 2-0 on the road this season, putting up 41 on the Colts and 34 on the Cowboys.

The Falcons (2-2) have scored 35 and 45 in back-to-back road wins, with Brian Robinson running for 145 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints. But they’re on a short week after playing Monday night, and their only home game this season was a 34-3 loss to the Panthers.

The Ravens are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as a road underdog, and this is a well-coached team with a run game that travels. We’ll take the points with the Ravens.

This is FREE PLAY on the RAVENS ATS.

This is a free play on ATL.

The Ravens come into Atlanta with a backup QB, and during the John Harbaugh Era this team has had some success with backup QBs. Or at least that's what I thought until I ran the numbers. As it turns out the Ravens are 5-12 in games that Lamar Jackson has missed since 2021. The injuries don't stop at the QB position, the Ravens have several starters on both sides of the ball that are listed as questionable or ruled out. The Falcons on the other hand come in with the #1 rushing defense in the NFL, and a perfect 2-0 record with Michael Penix Jr. as QB.

GL,

Jesse Schule

PSP Data Driven play on Raiders.

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Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog.The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The Raiders are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 road games.

Atlanta has boat raced both Green Bay and New Orleans the past 2 weeks.Now comes a Baltimore Ravens team without Lamar Jackson. This game opened Baltimore favored, and now with no Jackson it has moved to Atlanta the favorite. With Penix Jr. at the helm the Falcons have been able to put up 35 and 45 points in consecutive weeks. The line seems fishy to me, but if Atlanta is close to their last couple of weeks performance then they should handle a Jackson less Ravens team. Lay the points.

Bengals vs Dolphins NFL Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) are being asked to lay a big number on the road, and I don’t think this offense has earned that right now. They’ve lost two straight, including a 22-17 home loss to Jacksonville last week in which they ran for just 23 yards on 15 carries. A one-dimensional Bengals offense with hobbled receivers is not built to pull away from anybody.

The Miami Dolphins (0-4) are winless and nobody wants any part of them, which is exactly why this number is so inflated. Their schedule has been brutal, with three of four on the road and the Chiefs as the lone home game. The defense is quietly playing well. They held the Vikings to 15 points last week and covered as double-digit underdogs, and they rank eighth against the run.

The Bet: Dolphins ATS (3%). 

Mike's coming off a 6-2 Saturday, with several outright underdog winners at generous plus-money odds! Don't miss Sunday's card, including a 5% NFL MAX BET!