Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

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Josh Allen Rushing Yards Over 30.5 (-113):

Josh Allen has been very inconsistent as a runner in 2026 while only clearing this line in 2/7 games, but he is coming off a 30-yard effort in his most recent game against the Baltimore Ravens. However, Allen is one of the highest rated quarterbacks against blitzing defense with 19 scrambles for 204 rushing yards according to PFF. The Minnesota Vikings own the highest blitz rate of any team in the NFL, and the Bills are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with Alec Anderson and Dion Dawkins both listed as questionable. The Vikings haven't faced many mobile quarterbacks, but Caleb Williams did record 42 rushing yards against them in the early season. Allen always runs the ball more often in critical and/or high-profile games and tonight we have a standalone game on the road in a loud environment where we should see multiple scrambles.

*Playable at 32.5 or better

This is a free play on BUF.

The Bills are co-favored to win the Super Bowl, along with the San Francisco 49ERS. They rank #1 in the NFL scoring over 33 points per game, and they rank #2 in the NFL in rushing averaging over 148 yards per game. They have scored 24+ points in all seven of their games, even when matched up against the NFL's better defenses. The Vikings rank #1 in the NFL in total defense (272 yds/game) and #1 in scoring defense allowing 13.3 points per game. They only rank 17th in the NFL against the run, and that could spell trouble against the Bills #2 ranked rushing offense. Last week the Lions ran for 230 yards on 39 carries in a win over Minnesota. The Lions dominated time of possession, out-gained the Vikings by 118 yards and had nine more first downs despite only winning by a score of 19-15. This is definitely the toughest game on Minnesota's schedule so far, and I don't like their chances of stopping Josh Allen and the Bills. Josh Allen is 6-0 against BrIan Flores defenses, with the Bills averaging over 36 points in those games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Minnesota blitzes more frequently than any defense in the NFL, creating an excellent matchup for Khalil Shakir, who has become one of Josh Allen's most reliable targets against pressure. Shakir is targeted on 29% of his routes against the blitz, compared to just 19% when opponents don't blitz, and averages an impressive 3.6 yards per route in those situations. His median receiving production this season is 57 yards, comfortably above tonight's number. With Minnesota's aggressive defensive approach creating opportunities for quick throws underneath, Shakir is in an excellent position to clear this modest total.

I broke this play down on the Morning Wager with Bryan Power on WagerTalk YouTube, linked here:

In a matchup of two teams already essentially playing out the string, there is little reason to be conservative. The Colts are allowing 27.7 ppg. The Dolphins are allowing 28.6 ppg. Indianapolis has allowed 26 or more points in four of its last five games and has seen five of its past six games produce a minimum of 26 points. Go with the over.