Washington Commanders Over/Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins
4% Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 Regular Season Wins (+105)
UPDATE 8/9 12:30 PM EST: Washington just lost their top OL LT Tunsil for probably the season, this line could move a little, get it in!
Washington went 5-12 last year, and I’m not buying a three-win jump.
Jayden Daniels played only 7 games in 2025 and dealt with a knee sprain, hamstring injury and dislocated elbow. He also led all NFL quarterbacks with 8.3 rushing attempts per game. After 148 carries as a rookie, his style continues to expose him to significantly more contact than the average QB. Durability has to be priced into this number.
Washington also replaced both coordinators. David Blough takes over the offense and Daronte Jones takes over the defense, and both will be first-time NFL play callers.
They’ve added some names on defense, but per PFF, only 2 projected defensive starters carry grades over 70. This was a bad defense last year, and I’m not convinced the makeover fixes it overnight.
They also have only 8 true home games, with the Colts “home” game being played in London, and they open @ Philadelphia and @ Dallas.
Looking at the first 11 games, I project Washington to be favored in only 1 or 2 of them.
I don’t need Washington to be bad.
7-10 cashes this ticket.
Coming off 5 wins, with Daniels’ injury history and rushing workload, two first-time play callers, a questionable defense and this schedule, 7.5 is too high.