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While John Harbaugh was playing it cagey this week on who and how much some Giants starters might play in the “Snoopy Bowl,” we do know that Aaron Glenn plans to rest his Jets starters, including QB Geno Smith, which should mean another dose of Clemson rookie Cade Klunbik as he bids for the backup role.

Yet, as long as it’s preseason, it’s “In Harbaugh We Trust” as over a decade of preseason excellence in Baltimore concluded with a spotless 3-0 August mark a year ago, and that looked like a vintage Harbaugh, focused preseason effort last week in the G-Men's 26-3 romp at Miami. It could be more of backup Jameis Winston at QB after he has starred the first two games, while Brandon Allen recovered from the Vikings debacle with a sharp effort vs. the Dolphins. Play Giants

This is Friday’s strongest worldwide contrarian position.

Atlanta is drawing 75% of the spread bets and an enormous 94% of the spread money, yet laying more than a field goal in a preseason game remains a dangerous proposition.

The league-wide betting-splits system is particularly relevant: since 2023, when the majority handle backs a preseason team favored by at least 3.5 points, that group is just 33-44 ATS — 42.9%. Atlanta qualifies directly.

There is another applicable league-wide setup: teams scoring at least 34 points in their previous preseason game are just 15-20-1 ATS — 42.9% — in the following exhibition game. Atlanta scored 34 against Indianapolis.

Miami also owns supporting matchup history, going 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven preseason meetings with Atlanta.

Atlanta opened around -2.5 and is now -3.5. Rather than chase the move, the preferable approach is to take the extra point with Miami.

Tua Tagovailoa starts for Atlanta before Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, while Miami’s quarterback depth has been poor. Still, the price, public imbalance and applicable systems justify the dog.

Playable: MIAMI +3 or better. Strongly prefer +3.5.

Take #110 Commanders vs Ravens Under

We like the Under in this one. With the starters expected to sit, we’re looking at two teams leaning heavily on their backup quarterbacks, which should make points tough to come by.

Washington has Sam Hartman and Athan Kaliakmanis available, while Baltimore is expected to turn to Tyler Huntley. Kaliakmanis actually looked sharp in Week 2, completing 11-of-14 for 162 yards, but Washington's offense still managed only 13 points against Detroit.

The Ravens also scored just 13 points in their previous preseason game against Minnesota, while their young defense has been playing extremely well. Baltimore's defense produced a strong 13-3 win over the Vikings and generated consistent pressure and turnovers.

With limited offensive firepower, backup quarterbacks, and two defenses that have shown they can dictate preseason games, we're expecting another low-scoring affair.

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Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

Washington Commanders Over/Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins

4% Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 Regular Season Wins (+105)

UPDATE 8/9 12:30 PM EST: Washington just lost their top OL LT Tunsil for probably the season, this line could move a little, get it in!

Washington went 5-12 last year, and I’m not buying a three-win jump.

Jayden Daniels played only 7 games in 2025 and dealt with a knee sprain, hamstring injury and dislocated elbow. He also led all NFL quarterbacks with 8.3 rushing attempts per game. After 148 carries as a rookie, his style continues to expose him to significantly more contact than the average QB. Durability has to be priced into this number.

Washington also replaced both coordinators. David Blough takes over the offense and Daronte Jones takes over the defense, and both will be first-time NFL play callers.

They’ve added some names on defense, but per PFF, only 2 projected defensive starters carry grades over 70. This was a bad defense last year, and I’m not convinced the makeover fixes it overnight.

They also have only 8 true home games, with the Colts “home” game being played in London, and they open @ Philadelphia and @ Dallas.

Looking at the first 11 games, I project Washington to be favored in only 1 or 2 of them.

I don’t need Washington to be bad.

7-10 cashes this ticket.

Coming off 5 wins, with Daniels’ injury history and rushing workload, two first-time play callers, a questionable defense and this schedule, 7.5 is too high.