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Take Washington (#113)

From an urgency standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two teams on Thursday NIght.  The Giants have a multi-game lead in the NFC Least, sitting in first place with a decent sized betting bandwagon thanks to their 4-1-1 SU/5-1 ATS mark in their last six games -- John Harbaugh's team is a tad bit 'fat and happy' on a short week. Meanwhile, Washington is playing for the right to stay relevant over the back half of the campaign.  Dan Quinn's squad hasn’t forgotten blowing a two TD late lead vs the Gmen last month; a game that ended in a tie.  No surprise here if this game, too, rewards underdog bettors.  Take the Commanders

Since coming out of their bye in Week 7, the Buffalo Bills have allowed just 8.0 PPG to opponents on average, and gave up just 3.9 yards per play in Monday's win over the Vikings also.

That puts them in good stead here to shut down a Jets offense that averaged just 5.2 YPPA through the air against Kansas City last week, the 4th-lowest mark in the league overall.

To their credit, however, the Jets sit as a top-ten defensive unit this season, allowing just 5.1 YPP to opponents on average, a figure that improves to an even better 4.6 YPP when playing on home turf (joint-4th).

We'll take a look towards the Under between these two divisional rivals on Sunday.

PLAY: UNDER 51 (-110)

The Saints have won five of the last six meetings, including a pair of outright upsets last year. Carolina is 0-3 straight-up and against the spread over its last three games following last week's 26-21 home loss to Denver. The Panthers have allowed an average of 27.2 points per game over the last five contests. New Orleans is 1-5 against the spread over the last six games, but the Saints did pick up an outright win over Cleveland last week. New Orleans continues to produce terrible offensive numbers in the first half. After a 3-3 first half tie with Cleveland last week, the Saints are now 1-7 against the first half spread this season. New Orleans has only scored in the first quarter two times in eight games, producing a total of nine first quarter points this season. Perhaps the potential return of running back Travis Etienne Jr. is just what the voodoo doctor ordered in the French Quarter. Etienne Jr. has not played since Week 3 against the Raiders, but he is expected to return to practice this week after dealing with a hamstring injury. New Orleans has the second-lowest rushing success rate in the NFL this season (Raiders last), so his potential return would be a big boost for the Saints' offense. Carolina is running out of healthy bodies on defense. A unit that already has five players on IR was missing edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Bobby Okereke last week against the Broncos. If New Orleans can't muster some early scoring against this defense, then Kellen Moore needs to tear it all down and start over. Don't forget, owner Gayle Benson has been keeping a closer-than-normal eye on her team in recent weeks and wrote a letter to the Saints' fan base after the loss to Pittsburgh in Paris. Last week's win over Cleveland was a small step in the right direction, but a home win over a division opponent would go a long way toward rebuilding excitement after Who Dat Nation watched their team lose its first three home games this season.
Play New Orleans Saints

When these two teams played earlier his season, the over/under was set at 45.5, and they blew past it with 61 combined points. This weekend’s rematch carries a noticeably lower total, which provides value on the over. Yes, Minnesota’s games have tended to be low-scoring, but Green Bay’s haven’t. The Packers put up 45 points on their own last week in a 72-point shootout with New England, and the week before that, their game against Carolina totalled 46. I cashed the under in the Vikings’ game against Buffalo, but this Sunday I’m going the other way. Play the Over

In a matchup of two teams already essentially playing out the string, there is little reason to be conservative. The Colts are allowing 27.7 ppg. The Dolphins are allowing 28.6 ppg. Indianapolis has allowed 26 or more points in four of its last five games and has seen five of its past six games produce a minimum of 26 points. Go with the over.