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Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

The Browns have beaten Jacksonville three straight times. However, their last meeting was in 2024. Jacksonville was the much better team last season and is expected to be again this year. The Jaguars were 13-4 last regular season and 12-4-1 against the spread. (Remember, they were just 4-13 in 2024.) The Browns were 5-12 on the season, 8-9 ATS. The Jags were 10-2 against AFC teams. The Browns were 2-10. This year, the Jags are projected to win 8.5 to 9.5 games while the Browns are expected to win 5.5 to 6.5. The Jags have the majority of their offensive starters back. The Jags also had the best run defense in the NFL last season, allowing an average of only 85.2 rushing yards per game. They were the only team in the league to hold opponents under 90 yards on the ground. The Browns have a new coach and numerous question marks. They may improve this year but it's unlikely to happen immediately. I've got the Jags winning by double-digits.