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TreVeyon Henderson’s playing time increased after Stevenson’s fumble, raising the possibility of a near-even backfield distribution. New England is also a road underdog, which reduces the likelihood of Stevenson receiving sustained second-half rushing volume.

Jacksonville’s defensive strength is concentrated inside, where Stevenson receives most of his carries. The projection is approximately 33.5 yards.

Playable down to 35.5.

Higgins has drawn an unsustainably high 29-percent target share through two games, while Ja’Marr Chase sits at only 19 percent. Some redistribution toward Chase is likely. The reception under is safer than a yardage under because Higgins can still generate substantial yardage on three or four downfield catches.

Andrei Iosivas being out creates conflicting pressure because it removes one receiver from the rotation. Cincinnati can compensate with heavier tight-end personnel and rotational receivers, but the injury keeps this below the primary selections.

Playable at -145 or better; pass if the number drops to 3.5.

Playable to 7.5 at plus money; strongest at 6.5

Elliss has essentially become an every-down linebacker for New England. After playing approximately half the defensive snaps last season, he has participated on 119 snaps through two games, accounting for virtually every meaningful defensive situation. He has already recorded 12 solo tackles and four assists.

The matchup should produce more opportunities than his first two games. Jacksonville’s offense projects to generate roughly three additional tackle chances above New England’s early-season average, and the Jaguars should remain sufficiently competitive to preserve their rushing volume. Elliss owns a strong run-defense grade, but his tackle rate against rushing plays remains below last year’s level. That creates room for positive regression without requiring his role to increase.

The projection is approximately 8.3 combined tackles. At +112, the wager needs to cash only 47.2 percent of the time to break even, while the estimated probability is closer to the upper 60s if Elliss maintains his current snap share.

This is the best combination of role certainty, matchup, projection margin and price on today’s board.

Play Elliss over 6.5 at +100 or better. Over 7.5 is acceptable only at approximately +120 or better.

Playable down to 215.5

Jones has stayed below 170 passing yards in regulation in each of Indianapolis’ first two games. Houston’s defense held Joe Burrow to 207 yards despite Cincinnati possessing a stronger pure receiving corps.

Indianapolis has every reason to structure the offense around Jonathan Taylor. Running the ball reduces the exposure of a quarterback returning from an Achilles injury, helps protect the Colts’ passing game and attacks Houston without challenging the strongest portion of its defense.

The risk is game script. A large Houston lead could push Jones above 35 attempts and compromise the under. The preferred Indianapolis approach, however, is slow, Taylor-centric football rather than asking Jones to win through volume.

Play under 221.5 through 215.5. Pass below 214.5.

Playable to -140

Schultz is a good sell-high candidate after producing 12 receptions and 140 yards in his most recent game. Nico Collins’ absence makes the under less intuitive, but the defensive matchup matters.

The Colts are playing substantially more man coverage under Lou Anarumo. Schultz has historically been much more productive against zone: last season, he drew approximately 24 percent of the targets and caught 87 percent of them against zone, compared with a 17-percent target share and 59-percent catch rate against man.

Houston also projects to play from a neutral or favorable script, encouraging a heavier rushing approach. Schultz’s participation has declined when the Texans use two-tight-end personnel, creating another route-volume concern that is not obvious from last week’s box score.

The projection is approximately 5.1 receptions. Five catches cash the under, while six are required to beat it.

Play under 5.5 at -140 or better. Do not move to under 4.5 without receiving substantial plus money.