Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Cleveland qualifies for a league-wide home-underdog system requiring the home team to have allowed fewer points and fewer total yards than its opponent, with the opponent coming off a victory and the home team receiving at least 2.5 points on six days’ rest. The system is 99-65 ATS, winning 60.4 percent with 27.5 units and a 15.2-percent ROI.

Carolina’s defense has allowed 448 rushing yards at 6.3 yards per carry through two games. Cleveland has averaged only 2.9 yards per rush, but this is the most favorable matchup its offensive line and backfield have seen. Carolina will also be without running back Jonathon Brooks, who underwent core-muscle surgery and was placed on injured reserve.

Cleveland’s 23-19 upset at Tampa Bay was driven by a much cleaner performance from Deshaun Watson, who completed 24 of 30 passes for 238 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Carolina is one of the most heavily supported road favorites across the worldwide ticket-count indexes, creating another strong contrarian position on the home underdog.

Play CLEVELAND +3. The Browns are still playable at +2.5.

HUGE Sunday card up Rob is the ONLY 2 TIME OVERALL Football Champ on the Network. NFL Comp play below
 
The NFL Power system comp play today is on the Tennessee Titans plus the points at 1 eastern as Rob notes that week 3 or less home favorites of 4 or less like the Giants are 0-12 straight up and to the spread since 1990 if they are off a road dog loss and had less than 55 yards rushing, vs an opponent like the Titans that has more than 80 yards rushing. The Giants are on short rest here off the MNF Blowout loss to the Rams. NY lost QB Jackson Dart and now have to go with Turnover prone Winston. The Titans lost a close one in Philly last week and are a live dog here. Play on Tennessee today. GL Rob V-
 
SU: 0-12 ( Ag NYG)
ATS: 0-12 
 
Sep 08, 1991 - Sun 2 1991 Bengals Oilers home 0-0 0-6 7-7 0-17 7-30 -2.0 51.0 -23 -25.0 -14.0 -19.5 5.5 L L U 0
Sep 14, 1997 - Sun 3 1997 Giants Ravens home 0-7 12-7 8-0 3-10 23-24 -2.5 44.0 -1 -3.5 3.0 -0.25 3.25 L L O 0
Sep 26, 2004 08:36 Sun 3 2004 Dolphins Steelers home 0-3 0-0 0-3 3-7 3-13 -1.0 33.0 -10 -11.0 -17.0 -14.0 -3.0 L L U 0
Sep 18, 2005 04:05 Sun 2 2005 Cardinals Rams home 3-7 3-3 3-7 3-0 12-17 -1.0 44.5 -5 -6.0 -15.5 -10.75 -4.75 L L U 0
Sep 25, 2005 01:02 Sun 3 2005 Bills Falcons home 3-7 10-10 3-0 0-7 16-24 -2.5 37.0 -8 -10.5 3.0 -3.75 6.75 L L O 0
Sep 20, 2009 01:00 Sun 2 2009 Chiefs Raiders home 3-0 0-3 0-3 7-7 10-13 -2.0 39.0 -3 -5.0 -16.0 -10.5 -5.5 L L U 0
Sep 14, 2014 01:04 Sun 2 2014 Giants Cardinals home 0-10 7-0 7-0 0-15 14-25 -2.0 41.5 -11 -13.0 -2.5 -7.75 5.25 L L U 0
Sep 15, 2014 08:31 Mon 2 2014 Colts Eagles home 7-3 10-3 3-14 7-10 27-30 -3.0 53.0 -3 -6.0 4.0 -1.0 5.0 L L O 0
Sep 25, 2016 01:02 Sun 3 2016 Bengals Broncos home 7-3 7-13 0-0 3-13 17-29 -3.5 42.0 -12 -15.5 4.0 -5.75 9.75 L L O 0
Sep 26, 2016 08:30 Mon 3 2016 Saints Falcons home 7-7 10-21 8-10 7-7 32-45 -3.0 54.0 -13 -16.0 23.0 3.5 19.5 L L O 0
Sep 15, 2019 01:00 Sun 2 2019 Bengals Fortyniners home 7-14 3-10 0-10 7-7 17-41 -1.0 46.0 -24 -25.0 12.0 -6.5 18.5 L L O 0
Sep 25, 2022 04:25 Sun 3 2022 Seahawks Falcons home 10-10 10-7 3-10 0-0 23-27 -1 42 -4 -5 8 1.5 6.5 L L O 0
 
Sep 27, 2026 01:00 Sun 3 2026 Giants Titans home - - - - - -2.5 38.5

(467) Tennessee Titans at (468) New York Giants: Total

4% Total Under 37.5 (-108) *My Clients got 38.5, we played it early, sorry for delay, I still like it at 37.5, this is a 4% Client Release Play*

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This is a weather game for me, and the biggest factor isn’t the rain, it’s the WIND.

The latest forecast for MetLife is calling for sustained winds around 18 MPH with gusts potentially reaching 40+ MPH, along with periods of rain. I’ve talked about this for years: rain and light snow gets all the attention when people handicap weather, but WIND is the element I care about the most. It can affect the passing game, deep throws, field goals, punts and even how aggressively coaches call a game.

John Harbaugh is taking it seriously too. The Giants actually used fans at practice this week to simulate the conditions and increase the wind. Harbaugh said they intentionally “made the wind really pick up” to prepare for Sunday. That tells you the coaching staff expects the weather to be a legitimate factor.

Jaxson Dart is out, which puts Jameis Winston under center for New York. Winston came in Monday night against the Rams and completed just 11 of 27 passes for 111 yards with an interception. New York finished that game with only 6 points.

On the other side, Tennessee hasn’t been generating much through the air either. Cam Ward is averaging only 161.5 passing yards through the first two games, and these conditions should make both teams even more willing to lean on the run.

That matters for an Under: more rushing attempts keep the clock moving, shorten the game and reduce possessions.

Tennessee also has one of the league’s best interior disruptors in Jeffery Simmons, which is another concern for Winston if New York does have to throw in obvious passing situations.

So we potentially have:

• 18 MPH sustained wind
• Gusts potentially 40+ MPH
• Rain
• Jameis Winston under center
• Winston coming off an 11-of-27, 111-yard performance
• Cam Ward averaging only 161.5 passing yards
• Both teams likely leaning heavily on the run
• Fewer possessions and fewer explosive passing opportunities

This is exactly the type of weather handicap I talked about in this video last year. The rain is noticeable — but WATCH THE WIND.

Here is a video breakdown on YouTube:

If you can’t see the link, in YouTube, search:
DON'T Make BAD BETS Due to BAD WEATHER

Seagrave is on an elite 14-8 (64%) run with his posted Free Picks since August 27th!

Next Winner HERE:

TreVeyon Henderson Rushing Yards Over 40.5 (-120):

In Week 2, Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled for his 18th time as a member of the New England Patriots and TreVeyon Henderson took full advantage while running the ball 16 times for 76 yards. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a strong pass rush, so Josh McDaniels is going to need to utilize the running game to take the pressure off Drake Maye. The Jaguars defense ranks 10th in yards allowed per carry but they also rank 28th in run stop win rate according to ESPN. Jacksonville also hasn't faced any strong rushing attacks with games against the Broncos and Browns. Henderson played 60% of the snaps last week and recorded 55+ rushing yards in 4/4 games when logging that type of workload in 2025. The workload may be divided more evenly in Week 3, but Henderson will still be involved heavily, and this is reasonable number.

*Playable at 44.5 or better

Last Sunday, I gave you the Saints +8.5, and they stunned the Ravens in Baltimore. This week I'm giving you a strong total.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play UNDER on teams in Weeks 1-3 that averaged at least 5.4 yards per play last season if they outgained their previous opponent by at least 100 total yards, and the total is no higher than 47.

Applies to Seattle.

21-8 (72.4%) since the 2021 season, staying UNDER by an average of 4.1 points.