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Take #408 Panthers vs Jaguars Under

We’re staying on the Under trend in this Friday night preseason matchup. The Panthers and Jaguars are currently holding a joint practice, giving both coaching staffs an opportunity to get an extended look at their players before Friday's game.

Carolina has some encouraging developments offensively, particularly the growing Bryce Young–Tetairoa McMillan connection. Jonathon Brooks, Darren Waller, and Jalen Coker are also healthy, giving Young more weapons. However, protection remains a concern, and that's a major issue against a Jacksonville defense that looks deep and athletic.

The Panthers are also dealing with significant defensive injuries, including Tershawn Wharton and Nic Scourton, while Cam Jackson is now in concussion protocol. That could create some opportunities for Jacksonville, but we're expecting the Jaguars to emphasize evaluation rather than unleash the offense.

Jacksonville is coming off a 13-4 season and has plenty of talent on defense, including Travon Walker, Josh Hines-Allen, Davon Hamilton, and B.J. Green. With Liam Coen still undecided on how many starters will play, quarterback rotations and playing time remain major variables.

Week 1 of the preseason was dominated by the Under, and we're not jumping off that train yet. With both teams emphasizing defense and plenty of backup players expected to see action, we expect points to be difficult to come by.

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Take #410 Packers vs Broncos Under

We're staying on the Under here and riding the preseason trend. Green Bay was held to just nine points against Pittsburgh, with Jordan Love going 3-of-5 and moving the Packers into field-goal range. Love is expected to see a little more action this time around, which should give Green Bay's offense a boost.

Denver is coming off a dominant 27-7 win over Atlanta, including a pick-six, and Bo Nix is expected to make his preseason debut. He should see roughly 10-15 snaps before Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger take over.

Green Bay will also rotate Tyrod Taylor and Kyle McCord behind Love. That quarterback rotation, combined with limited starter reps, gives us plenty of reason to expect the offenses to struggle sustaining drives.

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Take #406 Jets vs Steelers Under

We're going right back to the Under in this preseason matchup. The Under went 12-4 last week, and we're riding that trend rather than overreacting to a few high-scoring results.

The Steelers opened preseason play with a 28-9 victory over Green Bay. The quarterbacks put up respectable numbers, but much of that production came against second- and third-team defenses, so we're not putting too much stock into those numbers. Aaron Rodgers is also expected to sit again.

The Jets are in an interesting rebuilding phase. They added Geno Smith and several veteran defensive pieces while moving on from Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner for draft capital. With New York seemingly positioning itself for a potential quarterback selection in 2027, the long-term priority is developing the roster rather than chasing preseason wins.

New York lost 24-16 to Tampa Bay last week, a game that went Over its total. But that was one of the exceptions in an otherwise Under-heavy opening week.

With preseason quarterback rotations, vanilla offensive game plans and defenses generally dictating the action, we're expecting scoring opportunities to be limited.

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Take #404 Niners vs Chargers Under

We’re riding the Under here, especially with the recent NFLX trend continuing. The Chargers opened as 1.5-point favorites before the line flipped to San Francisco -1.5, a notable three-point swing.

Los Angeles is coming off a convincing 27-7 win over Houston, while San Francisco dropped its opener 19-13 to Tennessee. The Chargers also have Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei available at quarterback, while their offensive line should be stronger with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back in the mix.

The bigger concern is San Francisco’s quarterback situation. Kurtis Rourke impressed in the opener, completing 12 of 14 passes for 101 yards, but he left the game with a rib injury and was hospitalized for evaluation.

Brock Purdy is expected to get a couple of series before Mac Jones takes over and potentially plays through halftime. The 49ers have also been dealing with injuries at several offensive positions, and their joint practice with Los Angeles exposed some issues in the secondary and offensive rhythm.

The Chargers' defense should provide another difficult test, and with quarterback rotations, limited starter reps and the Under trend we've seen early in the preseason, we're expecting a slower-paced, lower-scoring game.

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The side isn't quite as strong because the market has taken away the original price, but the system discrepancy remains enormous.

Houston is:

7-1 ATS in Game 2

Las Vegas is:

3-9 ATS in Game 2

The Raiders have also entered this spot on an 0-4 ATS preseason-road run.

There is a coaching situational system as well. DeMeco Ryans entered 2026 6-4 ATS overall in preseason but lost the opener to the Chargers, updating his career ATS mark to 6-5. More importantly, Ryans has been 3-0 SU and ATS following a preseason loss. Houston qualifies directly.

Personnel agrees with the systems. Stroud and the healthy Houston starters are expected to play, a significant change after Houston rested most front-line personnel in its 27-7 opener.

Houston also reportedly had the better of Tuesday's joint practice. Its running game produced one of its better sessions of camp, Stroud threw multiple touchdowns, and the Texans' defensive front consistently pressured both Kirk Cousins and Mendoza.

The major Las Vegas positive is Mendoza. The No. 1 overall pick received his first meaningful first-team practice work and is expected to play extensively Thursday. He remains one of the strongest young/hungry quarterback profiles on the preseason board.