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I really like the Over 48.5 in this matchup, especially with two productive passing attacks and a Las Vegas defense that has struggled to stop anybody. The Raiders are surrendering 27.0 points and 371.7 total yards per game, ranking 26th and 28th in the NFL, respectively. That's an inviting matchup for a Rams offense averaging 401.3 yards per contest, including 288.7 through the air, ranking second in the league. Matthew Stafford has already thrown for 1,794 yards and 11 touchdowns, and Los Angeles should have opportunities to exploit this vulnerable Raiders secondary. Las Vegas has plenty of offensive firepower itself, averaging 27.0 points per game, while Kirk Cousins leads the NFL's seventh-ranked passing attack at 263.5 yards per contest. The Raiders are coming off a 33-30 loss to Buffalo, and the Rams have significant injury concerns along their defensive front, which should create additional scoring opportunities for Las Vegas. The situational trends also strongly favor a high-scoring contest. The Over is a perfect 5-0 in the Rams' last five games following a matchup with Arizona and 6-2 in their last eight road games played indoors. Las Vegas is also 7-2 to the Over in its last nine games following a matchup with Buffalo. With both quarterbacks capable of putting up big passing numbers and the Raiders continuing to struggle defensively, I expect plenty of scoring opportunities throughout this contest. Over 48.5 is the play.

The NFL Comp play is on Arizona plus the points at 4:05 eastern. The Cards are off the big upset win over the Rams last week and should be tough here as well. Home dogs off a road dog win with a total higher than 38 are a perfect 6-0 to the spread since 200 vs an opponent like Denver that comes in off a Thursday home win. Denver has failed to cover 9 of 10 after a game with Seattle. Arizona has played well and despite red zone struggles should be in this game and cant pull another upset here. Take the points with Arizona. GL Rob V-

(471) Los Angeles Rams at (472) Las Vegas Raiders: Spread

4% Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (-120) ***THIS IS A 4% CLIENT RELEASE PLAY***

UPDATE 10/23 10:30 PM EST: Here is my full video breakdown and analysis on YouTube:

If you can’t see the link, search YouTube for: The Mad Russian Wagertalk

UPDATE 10/23 10:55 PM EST: CLIENTS... PLEASE TRY AND GET PLAYS IN EARLY!!! WE ARE CONTINUING TO BEAT LINE MOVEMENT EVERY WEEK, TIME DOES MATTER. LINE NOW +3.5 W/ HEAVY JUICE, I STILL LIKE THE NUMBER. +3, BUY HOOK IF REASONABLE.

The Rams have suffered some enormous losses on both sides of the football. Wide receiver Davante Adams is sidelined with a hamstring injury, while defensive linemen Poona Ford and Kobie Turner are also unavailable. Those are three major contributors, and the defensive losses could be particularly damaging. Ford and Turner are important pieces of the interior defensive line, and losing both creates opportunities for the Raiders to establish their running game with Ashton Jeanty.

The injury situation has become even more concerning for Los Angeles. Puka Nacua is questionable after injuring his calf during Thursday's practice, and starting linebacker Nate Landman has been ruled out with a concussion. Cornerback Trent McDuffie is also questionable after missing all three practices this week. With Adams already sidelined, any limitation involving Nacua would be another substantial blow to Matthew Stafford's passing attack.

Las Vegas has been competitive despite its 3–3 record, covering five of its first six games. The Raiders nearly knocked off Buffalo last week, losing 33–30, and Kirk Cousins has given this offense an experienced quarterback capable of keeping games close. Meanwhile, the Rams have struggled to turn their yardage into consistent victories, and Stafford has already thrown six interceptions this season.

This is a favorable situation for a home underdog facing a heavily depleted opponent. The Rams still have dangerous offensive weapons, but their injury situation, defensive losses and disappointing start make it difficult for me to justify laying more than a field goal on the road. We secured Las Vegas +4.5, and I still like the Raiders at +3.5. Give me Las Vegas and the points.

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Take Seattle (#474)

Lets start with the premise that these are two very good teams, which I still believe despite the Seahawks 3-3 start.  It’s surely worth noting that Seattle’s three losses have come by a combined eight points  - they’re a couple of field goals away from behind 6-0 instead of 3-3.  From an urgency standpoint, we’ve got KC fat and happy off a bye and a win — in a divisional sandwich spot with Denver on deck — while Seattle has just lost back-2-back heartbreakers.  Lay it or don’t play it!  Take the Seahawks.

Seagrave is on a strong 23-16 (59%) run with his posted Free Picks since August 27th!

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Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Over 14.5 (-113):

Patrick Mahomes hasn't faced the toughest schedule during the 2026 campaign, so he hasn't necessarily needed to utilize his legs, but he's still covered this line in 3 of 5 games. We know Mahomes will call his own number more often in critical and high-stake games and now he's playing on the road as a -2.5-point underdog against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks haven't faced many mobile quarterbacks thus far, but they have still allowed the 10th most rushing yards with an average of 18.3 per game. When Seattle has faced running quarterbacks, they have flown past this number including Justin Herbert with 40 yards and Drake Maye with 47 yards. Mahomes will see designed runs, but we could also see some scrambles on broken plays as he deals with the "12s" in the Seattle crowd.

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