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Not known for a whole lot of flair during his head coaching stints at Wisconsin and Arkansas, Bret Bielema has done a much better job of keeping up with the times during this current run at Illinois. The Illini have gone 19-7 over the last two seasons with back-to-back bowl wins over SEC opponents. With East Carolina transfer Katin Houser now running the offense, Bielema may need to lean even more into being an offense-first football team during the first half of this season. Houser arrives in Champaign after throwing for 3,300 yards with a 65.9-percent completion percentage with the Pirates last season. Former QB Luke Altmyer gained Bielema's trust to expand the offense over the past two seasons, and that book may need to stay open because the Illini have some massive questions to answer on defense. Former defensive coordinator Aaron Henry left for Notre Dame and the Illini are only expected to return three starters on defense. Bielema attracted a top-25 class of incoming freshmen, but the transfer haul leaves a lot of questions. Safety James Finley IV arrives from Northern Illinois. Defensive linemen Darrell Prater and Isaiah Thomison arrive from Jacksonville State and Bowling Green respectively. Defensive backs Deuce Fillmore and Lavon Williams are from Georgia State and East Texas A&M respectively. Illinois opened the season against FCS-level Western Illinois last season with a closing total of 62.5. Thursday's game against UAB features a total that is a full touchdown lower than that, yet the Blazers have shown that they are capable of putting points on the board at this level. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod in Birmingham after Trent Dilfer's dismissal last year. Mortensen brings back redshirt junior quarterback Ryder Burton, and according to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. That crew will not be intimidated by a trip to a Big Ten venue to open the season. Even with the program in complete disarray last season, the Blazers still scored 24 points against Navy, 24 points against Tennessee, 31 points against Memphis, 24 points against North Texas and 18 points against South Florida. Anything in that general neighborhood will be enough to push this final score over the total.

For Alabama standards, it was a disappointing season in 2025, which puts a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer to make a big postseason run this year. Keelon Russell has been named the starting quarterback, and he’ll thrive with the investments this team has made on the offensive line. Running the football was an issue last season, but that won’t be a problem against East Carolina. The defense returns 7 starters and that unit finished 29^th in opponent EPA per play last season, against obviously much tougher competition. Blake Harrell has done a nice job at ECU, so this isn’t a knock on him or his team. Alabama is a national title contender and this is simply a case of the Pirates being out of their league. The Tide will want to make a statement at home in Week 1, especially with a new quarterback and expectations so high. Take Alabama.

Oklahoma enters the 2026 season with legitimate College Football Playoff expectations after winning 10 regular-season games last year, and this opener provides an ideal opportunity to make an immediate statement. The Sooners return quarterback John Mateer along with leading receiver Isaiah Sategna III, giving offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle proven pieces in an offense that should be more comfortable in Year 2 of his system. Oklahoma improved from 86th to 19th nationally in offensive SP+ last season, and nearly the entire offensive line returns, providing continuity up front. The Sooners also added receiving talent through the portal, including Parker Livingstone and Trell Harris, giving Mateer even more weapons. Defensively, Brent Venables should once again field an imposing unit after Oklahoma finished fourth nationally in defensive SP+ last season, and the front seven looks particularly difficult for UTEP to handle. The Sooners return impact defenders such as David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke, and Taylor Wein, and the trench matchup will be extremely one-sided from the outset.

UTEP enters the season with substantial personnel turnover, including many new starters, making this an incredibly difficult trip to Norman to start the 2026-27 season. The historical gap between these programs has been enormous: Oklahoma is 5-0 against UTEP, outscoring the Miners 248-41 in those meetings. Oklahoma has also won 20 consecutive home openers, and the unusual Friday-night atmosphere in Norman should provide another edge for a team that has won all six of its Friday-evening regular-season games. From a technical standpoint, large college football favorites are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 8.7 points per game since 2012. SEC teams are 67-17 SU and 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in season-openers versus non-conference opponents, while UTEP is 15-31 SU and 14-32 ATS (30.4%) versus non-conference foes since 2014, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.8 points per game.

The Sooners have a massive step up in competition at Michigan the following week, so expect a focused performance designed to establish rhythm, build confidence and put UTEP away before turning their attention to Ann Arbor. Lay the points with the Oklahoma Sooners as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner on Friday, September 4.

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Rutgers has a substantial overall talent and depth advantage over Massachusetts entering the September 3 matchup. Starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is the centerpiece of the Scarlet Knights’ offense after throwing for 2,826 yards and 18 touchdowns last season, giving the Scarlet Knights an experienced veteran at the most important position. Rutgers also has proven weapons in the passing game, including KJ Duff, who has emerged as one of the team's most productive receivers and provides Kaliakmanis with a reliable downfield target. The offensive line possesses significant size and experience, which should allow Rutgers to establish the line of scrimmage against a UMass defense facing another rebuilding season. That physical advantage should be particularly important on the ground, where Rutgers can control tempo, sustain drives, and wear down the Minutemen as the game progresses. UMass, meanwhile, enters 2026 with considerable uncertainty after another difficult season and substantial roster turnover. The Minutemen are rebuilding their offense around transfer personnel, creating questions about how quickly the passing game can develop chemistry early in the season. Massachusetts’ offensive line struggled to consistently protect the quarterback and generate push in the running game last year, which is problematic against a Rutgers defense that can create pressure and put UMass behind the chains. Rutgers also has a significant advantage in overall roster depth, which becomes increasingly important in the second half, when a Big Ten roster can begin to wear down a less talented opponent. The Scarlet Knights' special teams units have traditionally been an emphasis under Greg Schiano, providing another potential edge in field position and hidden yardage.

From a technical standpoint, college football home favorites with spreads greater than -30 are 62-0 SU and 40-20-2 ATS (66.7%) in season openers against FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 3.8 points per game. Since 1989, Big Ten Conference favorites of more than -20 have been 90-63-2 ATS (58.8%) against MAC opponents, including 28-17 ATS (62.2%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of 5.0 points per game. Finally, FBS teams that lost their last six games the previous season are 71-99-4 ATS (41.8%) in season-openers. With the advantages at quarterback, in the trenches, overall depth, and special teams, lay the points with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, September 3.

With all due respect to Trent Dilfer, a change was desperately needed in Birmingham after a disastrous 9–21 tenure. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod after leading the final six games as the interim head coach, and we're looking for improvement from the Blazers in 2026. After spending nine years under Nick Saban at Alabama, Mortensen was held in high regard among a lot of coaching circles. In his first game with the headset after Dilfer's dismissal last year, Mortensen led the Blazers to a nationally-televised upset over then-No. 22 Memphis. Oddsmakers are only asking UAB to match last year's win total of four, and we believe that is a goal the Blazers can reach. Redshirt junior Ryder Burton is expected to get the nod at quarterback, and just like Mortensen, he made his debut against Memphis in the middle of last season. Burton went 20-of-27 for 251 yards and three touchdowns in his first start, showing that he was ready to lead the offense. Burton is already married, which is just one example of a very experienced roster that Mortensen is working with this year. According to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. UAB opens the season at Illinois, but then has extra time to prepare for win-able non-conference games against Louisiana and UL-Monroe. UAB plays FCS-level Samford after Navy, so that gives the Blazers a comfortable landing spot after a physical game against the Midshipmen. UAB will enjoy a bye at the end of October before finishing with a not-so-daunting closing stretch that includes Charlotte, Temple and a re-loading North Texas squad. UAB's program was in complete disarray last year, but the Blazers still won four games. We believe they can, at the least, match that total in 2026.