Free NCAAF Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

The market is giving us the first clue. This total opened around 47.5 and has been bet up to 49.5, with some movement reaching 50.5 before settling back. That is meaningful movement on a total this low, and we also have sharp support on the OVER. (VegasInsider)

Last year's 14-7 Ohio State win is going to make the UNDER attractive to anyone handicapping through the rearview mirror. This matchup looks different.

Ohio State opened by destroying Ball State 56-3 while producing 671 yards — 434 passing and 237 rushing. Julian Sayin has an embarrassment of weapons, led by Jeremiah Smith, and this offense doesn't need 12-play drives to score. The Buckeyes possess legitimate explosive-play ability through the air. (AOL.com)

The matchup numbers underneath that offense are impressive as well. Ohio State's passing attack entered this game rated No. 2 nationally in EPA per pass, while its offense ranked No. 1 in third/fourth-down success and No. 6 in available-yards percentage. Texas has an excellent defense, but its pass defense has not graded at the same elite level as its front. (Game On Paper)

Texas can contribute its share.

Arch Manning and the Longhorns opened by scoring 59 points with 516 total yards and 360 through the air. Texas now gets Ohio State at home under the lights rather than playing last year's game in Columbus. (AOL.com)

That venue change matters. Steve Sarkisian can attack aggressively rather than simply trying to survive a road game against the nation's No. 1 team. Ohio State's defense remains extremely talented, but it returns less than 40% of last season's production. The Buckeyes' 56-3 opener told us very little about how that rebuilt unit responds to Manning and a legitimate elite offense. (SI)

There is another reason I like the number: we don't need a shootout.

At 49.5, scores such as 27-24, 30-24 or 31-21 cash the OVER. That's important in a game where both teams have enough offensive talent to create points without either defense having to collapse.

Weather isn't giving us a reason to back away. Austin will be extremely hot during the day, but the 7:30 ET kickoff pushes the game toward evening. Winds are expected around 5-10 mph, with no major weather impediment to either passing game. (National Weather Service)

There is some personnel concern for Texas with running back Derrek Cooper expected to miss the game because of an ankle injury. That's worth acknowledging, but it doesn't materially change the handicap because Texas' passing game is the more important component of the OVER case. (SI)

Finally, the market agrees that 47.5 was too low. The total has risen two points despite the obvious UNDER narrative created by last year's 21-point meeting. That's exactly the type of movement worth respecting when our sharp information independently points the same way.

The defenses are good. The offenses may simply be better than a total below 50 requires.

FREE PICK: OHIO STATE–TEXAS OVER 49.5

Bet OVER 49.5. Playable through 50; at 50.5 or higher, the value becomes considerably thinner.

#OhioState #Texas #CollegeFootball #CFB #CFBBetting #SportsBetting #FreePick

The key number for me is 50. The sharp move from 47.5 strengthens the handicap, but I would not turn that into permission to chase 51+ after losing several points of value.

Iowa State +14.5

Iowa and Iowa State renew their rivalry and this is too many points. This rivalry game typically is played so tightly and it always comes down to the final drive or two. Iowa State’s offense put up 38 points last week and they have the firepower where they can produce some big yardage plays. Expect this game to be one that starts very slow as both teams will feel each other out. Iowa State will have to make a few big plays later in the game, but they’ll be right there throughout. Back Iowa State. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the Cyclones ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

SATURDAY FREE NCAAF ATS Play

FOOTBALL IS HERE! +152.85 units, 58.3% Winning Percentage (222-159-5) , 13.7% ROI since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. 5x Play CFB, and a BIG 5× Play Week 1 NFL Card going up, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

This would have been a premium candidate at the earlier number.

Multiple independent projections make Air Force the outright winner, including scores around 28-22 and 26-21. Air Force returns eight defensive starters, ranks among the most experienced teams in the country and allowed only 107 yards in its opener.

The Falcons also rushed for 431 yards while controlling their opener from start to finish. North Dakota State is excellent, but this is its first trip to the Academy and an unusual preparation assignment against an option team with veteran personnel.

The problem is purely price. Air Force was available around +6.5 earlier and has been driven all the way to approximately +2.5/+3. That's too large a move to chase as a premium wager.

Take AIR FORCE +3 as a free play. +3.5 would be excellent. At +2.5, value is substantially reduced.

BYU has enough handicapping support to win comfortably, but the extreme public favorite profile and Arizona's late personnel upgrades keep it free.

Air Force has excellent underlying support, but the move from roughly +6.5 to +2.5/+3 has consumed too much of the value.

North Dakota State has made an impressive entrance into the FBS ranks, opening 2-0 and outscoring Jacksonville State and Fordham 71-7. However, this is a much different assignment. The Bison now play their first true FBS road game at altitude against an Air Force offense that forces opponents to prepare for a completely different style of football.

The Falcons opened with a dominant 34-0 victory over Duquesne, rushing for 431 yards on 71 carries while possessing the ball for more than 40 minutes. Quarterback Liam Szarka is healthy again, giving Troy Calhoun an experienced runner to run an offense designed to wear defenses down.

North Dakota State does have experience defending the triple option, but facing Air Force in Colorado Springs is a different challenge. The Falcons also return eight starters on defense and allowed only 107 total yards in their opener, giving them the personnel to make this the low-scoring, possession-driven game they prefer.

North Dakota State may eventually prove it belongs near the top of the Mountain West, but being favored on the road this quickly is asking plenty. With Air Force able to control the clock, shorten the game, and lean on its home-field advantage, take the points with the Falcons.

The same elite league-wide UNDER system that has produced 308-161 UNDERS — 65.7%, +130.9 units and a 25.4% ROI also identifies Air Force–North Dakota State. It’s an extra enhanced angle about teams off dominant rushing games are big unders.

Both sides bring run-oriented elements that can keep the clock moving, and the market remains clustered around the upper 40s, with 47.5 widely available and some markets posting even higher UNDER numbers.

The system is outstanding, but without the same level of personnel, market and sharp corroboration as the Wise Guys, this stays a free play.

UNDER 47.5; anything 48.5 or higher is preferable.