Free NBA Basketball Predictions for May 17

Oskeim Sports

Event: (543) San Antonio Spurs at (544) Oklahoma City Thunder: Spread

Sport/League: NBA

Date/Time: May 18, 2026 8:30 PM EDT

Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 (-108)

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The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the San Antonio Spurs on Monday for Game 1 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals. Since 2003, .600-or-greater home favorites of -4.5 to -9.5 points are 783-647-25 ATS (55%) versus .600-or-greater opponents. San Antonio arrives off back-to-back wins over the Timberwolves, which is significant because NBA underdogs coming off consecutive wins are just 230-300-8 ATS (43.4%), falling short of market expectations by an average margin of 2.0 points per game. Even better, NBA playoff road underdogs entering off consecutive double-digit wins are 3-19 SU and 5-17 ATS (22.7%) and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 5.7 points per game since 1997. Oklahoma City is 25-1 ATS (96.2%) following a double-digit win versus opponents entering off two or more consecutive wins, winning by an average margin of 16.5 points per game and covering the spread by an average of 10.2 points per game since November 14, 2022. Finally, the Thunder are 47-9 SU and 42-11-3 ATS (79.2%) coming off a double-digit ATS win in games with totals of 227 points or less, including 70-37 ATS (65.4%) after covering the Vegas number by thirteen or more points since 2019. The foregoing team angle has been 61-26-3 ATS (70.1%) since 2021, exceeding market expectations by an average of 3.5 points per game. Lay the points with the Oklahoma City Thunder as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, May 18.

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