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Washington/LA Sparks Under 167.5 makes sense because Washington is walking into this game on no rest, and when the Mystics play tired, they slow everything down and lean heavily on their defense — a defense that allows just 82.6 points per game on the road and ranks top‑two in nearly every major category. LA’s offense hasn’t shown any ability to push pace lately, averaging just 76.6 points over its last five games, and those contests have averaged only 163.2 total points. Washington already plays one of the slowest tempos in the league, and back‑to‑back spots only tighten that even more. The Sparks’ defense has been shaky all season, but Washington’s offense isn’t built to run away in a fatigue spot, and LA’s recent scoring slump keeps their side of the total in check. With Washington controlling tempo, LA struggling to generate offense, and both teams trending toward lower‑scoring games, Under 167.5 is the right read.

Naz Hillmon Points Over 8.5 (-111):

Brionna Jones remains on the shelf due to an injury and Naz Hillmon has stepped up in her absence with 12+ points in 2 of her last 3 games (8 in the other game) while playing 30+ minutes in 4 of her last 5 games. Hillmon scores the majority of her points as a spot up shooter and the Portland Fire have allowed the 3rd highest catch-&-shoot frequency during their last 10 games. When Hillmon has played 25+ minutes against teams ranked bottom 6 against spot up shooters, she has covered this line in 11/13 games (85%) while averaging 12.6 points per game. The Fire have allowed the 3rd highest assisted basket percentage and 90% of Hillmon's buckets come off assists. DeWanna Bonner did just join the Dream, but she has already been ruled out for Friday (rest). Hillmon has crushed this line in both of her head-to-head meetings against Portland with 14 and 15 points while playing 36 minutes in both games and she should approach that number tonight.

*Playable at 9.5 or better

FREE PICK on Las Vegas Aces (ATS) || Good until -14.5.

Toronto just hasn't been the same team since it was earlier in the season. Having lost 18 of their L20 games, the Tempo are completely defeated and don't have anything to play for anymore. Yes, they are competitive at times. But, without Marina Mabrey (who averages nearly 21 points per game), the Tempo aren't going to have any success against the defending WNBA champions. Las Vegas just beat Toronto by double digits on the road. Expect even more of a blowout tonight. Go with the Aces.

These teams recently faced each other at Toronto. The Aces won by "only" 10 points. A month earlier when they played (also at Toronto) the Aces won by 26. Clearly, there's a big talent gap between the teams. The Tempo aren't nearly as strong on the road and Friday's rematch will be played at Vegas. Well-rested and with no games on deck, due to the break for the women's World Cup, the Aces should easily take care of business. Expect them to deliver a comfortable blowout. Lay the points.