Free WNBA Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

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Azzi Fudd Points Over 13.5 (-130):

Azzi Fudd has covered this line in 1/2 head-to-head games against the New York Liberty, but both of those games were played on the road, and she's cleared this line in 5/6 home games when playing 25+ minutes (avg 18/game). The Liberty rank 11th in defensive rating during their last five games and during that span of time they have allowed the 2nd most mid-range points and 4th most points on above-the-break threes. Those two areas account for 67% of Fudd's scoring profile. Alanna Smith is currently listed as doubtful and Fudd has eclipsed this number in 3/4 games without her on the floor while averaging 19 points on 16 field goal attempts across 37.5 minutes per game. Fudd has averaged 14 field goal attempts per game in her two games against New York and she's gone over this number in 4/5 home games when taking 10+ shots (avg 17.8/game). The spread for this game is a near pick'em so we should avoid a blowout that limits court time.

The over offers solid value in this matchup as both teams arrive with renewed confidence on the offensive end. Washington welcomed back Sonia Citron after she missed two games with a knee injury, and she immediately made an impact by scoring 19 points against Seattle. Shakira Austin erupted for a season-high 27 points in the Mystics' victory over the Storm and contributed 17 points on 7-of-14 shooting from the field in Tuesday’s win over Toronto. Portland is also coming off one of its best offensive performances of the season, shooting 60% from the field in its 102-92 win over Atlanta. Seven players finished in double figures, including Serah Williams (15 points), Frieda Buhner (11 points), and Teja Geiselsoder (10 points), coming off the bench. The Fire's balanced scoring attack has become much harder to defend against, and their willingness to push the pace has created more transition opportunities in recent games. Washington's young core continues to develop offensively, and the return of Citron gives the Mystics another reliable perimeter scorer to complement Austin and Kiki Iriafen. Washington should have success on the offensive end against a subpar Portland defense ranked 13th in FG% (46.8), 9th in 3P% (33.8), 13th in FTA (24.1), and 13th in PPG (91.2). From a technical standpoint, .500 or worse WNBA teams in a rematch where they attempted 67 or more field goals in the previous meeting are 323-239-7 to the Over (57.5%), going over by an average margin of 4.0 points per game since 2011. Since 2017, Thursday games before the WNBA All-Star break are 150-104-2 to the Over (59.1%), including 130-72-2 OVER (64.4%) since 2021, going over by an average margin of 4.3 points per game. Let’s also note that teams coming off two or more consecutive wins are 154-120-3 to the Over before the All-Star break. With both teams entering in strong offensive form and each showing the ability to score from multiple positions, this matchup profiles as a faster-paced game than the market expects. Expect efficient shooting, plenty of transition baskets, and enough offensive firepower on both sides to send this game over the posted total. Take the Over as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Thursday, July 16.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 190-136 | +83 Units
-> Torrid 62-41 (60.2%) Overall Run | +32 Units
-> #1 Basketball (WP/ROI) '25-26: 114-80 (59%)
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
-> Epic 125-77 (62%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles

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The under is the preferred play on Thursday, as both teams enter the rematch with greater emphasis on half-court execution than on tempo. Dallas has won five straight, but that success has been fueled as much by efficient offense and strong rebounding as by playing fast, with Jessica Shepard controlling the paint and Paige Bueckers directing the offense. New York has struggled to find consistency amid injuries to Satou Sabally (10.4 ppg) and Leonie Fiebich (10.0 ppg), and the Liberty have scored 91 points or fewer in each of their last three league games. However, New York’s defense ranks sixth in the league in both FG% (43.9) and 3P% (32.5), and the Liberty defend without committing many fouls, ranking second in free-throw attempts per game. After losing 88-77 to Dallas on July 7, expect New York to make defense its top priority to avoid another setback. The Wings have already shown they can slow the Liberty's offense by winning the rebounding battle and limiting transition opportunities, a formula they are likely to repeat. Dallas ranks 4th in the league in OREB allowed per game (7.4) and 5th in DREB (26.4). From a technical standpoint, WNBA home teams coming off back-to-back unders in their previous two meetings are 61-44 to the Under (58.1%) in games with totals over 160 points. Since 2013, WNBA teams with average totals of 166 or more points per game are 154-121-7 to the Under (56%) in games with totals of greater than 171 points, including 143-106-6 UNDER (57.4%) since 2018. Let’s also note that small underdogs of favorites in games with totals of 172 or more points are 82-67-4 to the Under (55%) since 2017. With both teams familiar with each other's tendencies and the Liberty desperate to tighten up defensively, this projects as a more physical, methodical matchup than the market expects. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, July 16.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 190-136 | +83 Units
-> Torrid 62-41 (60.4%) Overall Run | +32 Units
-> #1 Basketball (WP/ROI) '25-26: 114-80 (59%)
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
-> Epic 125-77 (62%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles

PSP Data Driven 1* Mystics.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Washington are 4-1 in its last 5 games. Portland are 2-5 in its last 7 games.