Pavlos Laguretos
Event: (200017) Manchester City at (200018) West Ham: Total
Sport/League: EPL
Date/Time: March 14, 2026 4:00 PM EDT
Free English Premier League Pick Today: Total Under 3.0 (-105)
West Ham vs Man City
EPL, Saturday, 4pm ET
Play: Under 3 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Line good to -120
West Ham are +365 underdogs at home, the Draw is at +320 and Man City are -145 favourites in the road, with the Spread at 0.75 and the Total at 3.
West Ham fighting to avoid relegation, currently sitting inside the red zone with 28 points, as many as Nottingham above them (who are in between their Europa League knockouts) and both teams 1 point behind Tottenham, who play Liverpool this weekend and against Nottingham next week. So West Ham would definitely fight for some points vs Man City, who also lost by 3-0 to Real Madrid mid-week and now have to overturn a 3-goal deficit at home next Tuesday.
West Ham are currently on a 4-1 run to the Under 2.5 Goals in league play. Man City are on a 14-2 run to the Under 3.5 Goals in the EPL and I think they will just want to spend as few resources as possible in this game, as they have a huge match coming up against Real Madrid.
For what it's worth, West Ham's coach Espirito Santo (which by the way literally translates to Holy Spirit), has faced Man City's Pep Guardiola more than any other manager in his career, with W4 D1 L8. Each of the last 6 H2H between these two coaches finished with 3 goals or fewer, and 4 of 6 went to the Under 2.5. This is a match-up that usually produces goals, but this time around it looks an awful lot like a careful match between these two.
The Play is Under 3 Goals (-105)
Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago
Pavlos Laguretos
Event: (200009) Newcastle United at (200010) Chelsea
Sport/League: EPL
Date/Time: March 14, 2026 1:30 PM EDT
Free English Premier League Pick Today: Over 4.5 Cards (-125)
Chelsea vs Newcastle
EPL, Saturday, 11:30am ET
Play: Over 4.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Line good to -135
Chelsea are -120 favourites at home, the Draw at +330 and Newcastle are +285 underdogs on the road, with the Spread at 0.75, or 0.5, it keeps moving, and the Total at 3.25
Both teams coming off mid-week matches in the Champions League knockouts, and they both have the second legs to play next week, so don't expect them to play like they usually do here.
Chelsea were holding on for a draw away at PSG but fell apart in the second half and eventually lost by 5-2, they now need kind of a miracle in order to go through.
Newcastle did extremely well when they hosted Barcelona, they eventually took the lead at the 86th minute but conceded a late penalty kick at the 6th minute of stoppage time for a 1-1 draw. Now they have to go to Barcelona and avoid the loss if they want to have a chance to go through.
Can't go anywhere near sides or totals here, this is an extremely volatile match that could really go anywhere, no result would surprise me, really.
One thing has been constant in recent H2Hs, and that's cards, with the reverse fixture producing 9 cards, and 8/6/9/4/6/11 in L/3 seasons.
Referee Paul Tierney isn't the best referee for cards out there, but this is a strange game and only cards come to mind.
The Play is Over 4.5 Cards (-125)
Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago
Pavlos Laguretos
Event: (200013) Everton at (200014) Arsenal: Total
Sport/League: EPL
Date/Time: March 14, 2026 1:30 PM EDT
Free English Premier League Pick Today: Total Under 2.5 (-115)
Arsenal vs Everton
EPL, Saturday, 11:30am ET
Play: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Line good to -125
Arsenal are -270 favourites at home, the Draw at +370 and Everton are +940 underdogs on the road, with the Spread at 1.25 and the Total at 2.5
I told you guys in the Champions League video that that +750 on Leverkusen to Qualify over Arsenal was too much. Also gave you Leverkusen +1 AND the 1-1 Correct Score (+600) on my Twitter (that you can find below). Arsenal are playing in 4 competitions and there is absolutely NO way they can be good in all 4. My personal estimate is that their priority is the EPL, and we saw them barely avoiding the loss mid-week thanks to a late penalty kick.
Now back home to face Everton, who are playing really good soccer this season, currently sitting 8th with 43 points, and just 5 points outside the top-5 spots that grant tickets to the European competitions next season. Much like last season, extra European spots might open up for England depending on who wins their domestic Cups and whether any English team will win the Champions, Europa or the Conference League. So Everton are hoping, and they've actually been better on the road than they've been at home, grabbing 24 points away from home on a W7 D3 L4 record, which is actually the 3rd best.
Kings of the Unders in the EPL this season, with 19-10 to the Under 2.5 Goals and an average of 2.3 goals/match, and also 10-4 to the Under 2.5 Goals on the road with an average of 1.9 goals/match.
H2Hs usually have very few goals, with the reverse fixture and both H2Hs last season going Under 2.5 Goals, and also 5 of L/7 went to the Under.
Strange match this one, as Arsenal also have the second leg at home vs Leverkusen coming up, this looks like a slow game to me but I haven't really kept a close eye on Everton this season, so I am just guessing as to how they will approach this match.
The Under 2.5 Goals is -115, and could be the best way to bet this match.
Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago
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