Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline	8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026

The PLAY: New York Yankees -120

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_______

Offense baseline

• Yankees: 5.24 R/G

• Giants: 4.35 R/G

• League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51

  • Offense index (approx):

    • NYY: 1.194

    • SFG: 0.991

Starters

Max Fried (NYY, LHP)

• 2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90

• 2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

• 2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA

• 2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA

  batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)

• Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)

• Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)

Projected lineups

• Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells

• Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey

---

1) Starter expected innings (March workload)

Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:

• Webb: 5.0 IP

• Fried: 5.1 IP

2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter

Fried context RA9

• Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09

• Small March bump = 3.24

• H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65

Webb context RA9

• Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23

• Tiny March bump: = 3.29

• H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68

3) Park/weather/travel adjustments

• Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.

• Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)

4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)

Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)

---

Projection results

Full game projected score

• NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2

• Projected total: 7.2

1st 5 innings projected score

• NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8

• 1st5 projected total: 4.0

---

Starting pitcher boxscore

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried (NYY)	5.1	2	4	6	2
Logan Webb (SFG)	5.0	2	5	5	1

---

Hitter boxscore projection

NYY hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Trent Grisham	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
Aaron Judge	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Cody Bellinger	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Rice	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Giancarlo Stanton	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Ryan McMahon	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
José Caballero	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Wells	4	0	1	0	0	0	1

SFG hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Heliot Ramos	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
Willy Adames	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Matt Chapman	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Harrison Bader	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Bryce Eldridge	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0

---

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline value vs book

Team	Model win%	Fair ML	Book ML	Book implied%	Edge (Model–Book)	Value?
NYY	62.1%	-164	-115	53.5%	+8.6%	+VALUE
SFG	37.9%	+164	+105	48.8%	-10.9%	-VALUE

Totals value (Full game O/U 7)

Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).

Market	Model proj	Model win%	Fair odds	Book odds	Edge	Value?
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push)	7.2	51.1% (no-push)	-105	-110	-1.2%	-VALUE
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push)	7.2	48.9% (no-push)	+105	-110	-3.5%	-VALUE

Totals value (1st 5 innings)

I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.

Market	Model proj (1st5)	Model win%	Fair odds	Assumed book	Edge	Value?
1st5 Over 3.5	4.0	56.5%	-130	-110	+4.1%	+VALUE
1st5 Under 3.5	4.0	43.5%	+130	-110	-8.9%	-VALUE

---

Pros for Yankees -120

• Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.

• Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.

• Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.

• Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.

• 7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBA	(301511) Zhejiang Chouzhou at (301512) Tianjin	7:35am EDT - Mar 11/2026

The PLAY: First Quarter Under +45.5 (-110)

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_______

Team comparison chart

Category	Zhejiang Chouzhou	Tianjin
Full season points for	85.2	92.1
Full season points against	80.5	94.2
Last 5 games points for	76.0	93.4
Last 5 games points against	69.6	94.6
Last 5 away / home points for	72.6 away	98.4 home
Last 5 away / home points against	70.6 away	91.4 home
Top scorer 1	Gabe York — 13.8 PPG	Javion Hamlet — 23.7 PPG
Top scorer 2	Brandon Randolph — 13.7 PPG	Scottie James Jr. — 16.4 PPG
Assist leader	team page doesn’t surface APG cleanly; guard creation runs through York / Randolph	Javion Hamlet primary creator
Rebound leader 1	Dakari Johnson — 10.6 PPG listed; frontcourt anchors include Yu Jiahao / Damian Jones / Dakari Johnson	Scottie James Jr. primary rebound/frontcourt piece
Rebound leader 2	Yu Jiahao / Damian Jones rotation interior	Haoran Zheng secondary scorer / frontcourt support
Injuries	No clear accessible pregame injury bulletin found	No clear accessible pregame injury bulletin found

Player-vs-player matchups

Matchup	Edge	Evaluation
Gabe York / Brandon Randolph vs Javion Hamlet	Slight Tianjin star edge, slight Zhejiang team-defense edge	Hamlet is the biggest individual scorer in the game at 23.7 PPG, but Zhejiang’s recent defense has been much better than Tianjin’s.
Zhejiang frontcourt vs Scottie James Jr.	Slight Zhejiang	Zhejiang has deeper size options with Yu Jiahao, Damian Jones, Dakari Johnson on the roster, which matters against Tianjin’s more offense-first profile.
Zhejiang road defense vs Tianjin home offense	Toss-up	Your data says Zhejiang allows only 70.6 in its last 5 away, while Tianjin scores 98.4 in its last 5 home. That is a direct collision between pace goblin and defensive brick wall.
Tianjin perimeter creation vs Zhejiang half-court execution	Tianjin in shot creation, Zhejiang in control	Tianjin’s offense is more explosive via Hamlet; Zhejiang’s recent results are lower-scoring and cleaner defensively.

---

1st quarter projection

Projected 1Q score

Zhejiang Chouzhou 22 - 20 Tianjin
Projected 1Q total: 42.5

Compared with the sportsbook lines:

• Tianjin 1Q TT 22.5 → Under

• Zhejiang 1Q TT 23.5 → Under

• 1Q total 45.5 → Under

Confidence grades

Market	Pick	Confidence
Tianjin 1Q team total 22.5	Under 22.5	4/5
Zhejiang Chouzhou 1Q team total 23.5	Under 23.5	3/5
1Q total 45.5	Under 45.5	4/5

Best betting angles from this breakdown

Bet	Lean	Confidence
Full game spread	Zhejiang +3.5	4/5
Full game total	Under 177.5	4/5
Tianjin 1Q TT 22.5	Under	4/5
Zhejiang 1Q TT 23.5	Under	3/5
1Q total 45.5	Under	4/5

1. My weighted 1Q projection came in below the number

• Projected 1Q score: Zhejiang 22 - 20 Tianjin

• Projected 1Q total: 42.5

• That gives about a 3-point cushion under 45.5

2. Zhejiang’s recent games have been slow and ugly early

• In the 1Q sample I used, Zhejiang averaged:

  • 21.8 points scored

  • 19.2 points allowed

• That’s a combined 41.0 1Q points

• Their recent overall form has been very under-ish, with scores like 61-59, 58-68, 87-70, 89-69, 85-82. That is not exactly a flamethrower convention.

3. Tianjin’s recent 1Q offense has been shaky

• Verified recent 1Q scoring sample for Tianjin was:

  • 19 vs Guangdong

  • 29 vs Fujian

  • 9 vs Guangsha

• Average: 19.0 points

• Even with some noise in the sample, that is well below a pace needed to help clear 45.5 comfortably

4. The matchup is pace-conflicted, and Zhejiang is the team more likely to control tempo

• Tianjin wants a faster, higher-scoring environment

• Zhejiang’s recent away profile is the opposite:

  • Last 5 away PF: 72.6

  • Last 5 away PA: 70.6

• That suggests Zhejiang has been dragging games into slower, lower-possession scripts, especially away from home

5. Step-2 home/away math also leaned under

• Tianjin last 5 home 1Q projection: 21.55

• Zhejiang last 5 away 1Q projection: 20.91

• Combined step-2 total: 42.46

That’s another layer pointing below 45.5.

6. Full-season 1Q numbers are not explosive enough to scare the under
Using season averages:

• Tianjin season-based 1Q projection: 22.01

• Zhejiang season-based 1Q projection: 22.88

• Combined: 44.89

That’s still basically right under the number, and that’s before giving extra weight to Zhejiang’s much slower recent form.

7. Tianjin 1Q under 22.5 also supports the full 1Q under

• I projected Tianjin for only 20.4 in Q1

• If Tianjin doesn’t get into the 23-25 range early, it becomes much harder for the full quarter to fly over unless Zhejiang goes nuclear

8. Zhejiang has been a strong 1Q team, but not necessarily a wild 1Q over team

• They’ve been winning early quarters

• But that has often come through defense and control, not pure shootout chaos

• A team can win Q1 while still helping an under cash. Beautiful little gambling paradox goblin.

Clean summary
The best case for Under 45.5 1Q is:

• my projection is 42.5

• Zhejiang’s recent style is slow and defensive

• Tianjin’s recent 1Q offense has been unreliable

• both the home/away and season-based math land at or below the line

Best supporting angle:
Tianjin 1Q team total under 22.5 pairs nicely with the full 1Q under 45.5.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NCAABB	(3643) Texas San Antonio at (3644) Texas Tech: Moneyline	7:30pm EDT - Mar 10/2026

The PLAY: Texas Tech 100

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#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

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_______

Team	Book Odds	Book Implied %	My Win %	Fair Odds	Value
UTSA	-125	55.56%	51%	-104	-4.56%
Texas Tech	-105	51.22%	49%	+104	-2.22%

Texas Tech moneyline:

Home field is the first clean argument. This game is in Lubbock, and Texas Tech’s official schedule lists the UTSA game as a home game on March 10 at 6:30 p.m. Home field matters in college baseball more than people sometimes admit, especially in midweek spots where bullpen comfort and routine get weirdly important.

Texas Tech’s lineup is swinging it well enough to win a slugfest. Current cumulative stats show Connor Shouse at .386, Robin Villeneuve at .358 with 5 HR, and Matt Quintanar at .346. That is a pretty healthy little goblin cluster in the middle of the order, and it supports the case that Tech can punish a game that drifts into bullpen innings.

Recent form is strong. Texas Tech just swept Penn State and did it by scores of 15-7, 21-6, and 14-4. That’s not merely “won the series”; that’s “set the scoreboard on fire and then roasted marshmallows over it.” UTSA has also been good, but the Red Raiders are entering this game with clear offensive momentum.

The market may be over-rewarding UTSA’s better record. UTSA’s overall start is excellent, but Texas Tech is not walking into this game cold or overmatched. Both teams have recent wins over quality opponents, and Tech’s current offensive profile gives it a very real path to outscore UTSA at home even if UTSA is the steadier team overall. UTSA’s own stats page shows a strong offense too, but that also means this is the kind of matchup where the home side’s bats can flip the whole thing quickly.

At -105, you are not paying a premium. That is the practical betting case. You do not need Texas Tech to be massively better; you just need them to win this game often enough at home in what looks like a very live, close matchup. At that price, the Tech case is basically: strong recent form, dangerous bats, home park, and no tax-heavy favorite number attached..

My honest angle: the best pro for Texas Tech ML is not that they are clearly better than UTSA — it’s that they are live enough at home that -105 is a very playable price..

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NCAABB	(3621) Florida State at (3622) Florida: Moneyline	6:30pm EDT - Mar 10/2026

The PLAY: Florida State 100

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#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
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#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

My projected winner: Florida State

Projected win probability

• Florida State 53%

• Florida 47%

Fair odds from my projection

• Florida State -113

• Florida +113

Moneyline value vs the book

Book odds

• Florida State +100 → implied win probability 50.00%

• Florida -130 → implied win probability 56.52%

Edge

Why I lean FSU: the Seminoles bring the better overall current statistical profile into this game. Florida State’s official preview has them at 13-2, hitting .310/.431/.502 with 18 homers, while the pitching staff owns a 3.71 ERA, .204 opponent average, and 164 strikeouts in 126 innings. Florida is 14-3, but its staff numbers entering this matchup were weaker at 4.46 ERA, .243 opponent average, and 118 strikeouts against 58 walks in 115 innings. That gap on the mound is the big deal-maker here.

The starting pitcher matchup is close, but FSU has a slight edge on paper. Florida’s preview lists FSU RHP John Abraham (1-0, 0.66 ERA) against Florida RHP Schuyler Sandford (1-0, 1.69 ERA). Both numbers are shiny and probably inflated by early-season small-sample nonsense, but Abraham’s run prevention edge is still real enough to matter, especially with FSU’s stronger team-wide strikeout profile behind him.

The lineup edge is more mixed. Florida’s offense is dangerous and very real, led by Brendan Lawson (.418), Kyle Jones (.397), and Blake Cyr (.365) in the current cumulative stats. That is proper gremlin-ball. But FSU’s offense has also been excellent as a full unit, with more walks drawn and a stronger team slash line in the available preview. Florida has top-end bat heat; Florida State looks a bit more complete team-wide entering this spot.

The bullpen / staff depth edge goes to Florida State. Florida’s bullpen has had good moments — for example, against Miami the Gators got 6 2/3 innings of one-run relief in one marquee win — but the season-long staff indicators still favor FSU pretty clearly. Florida also just dropped a home game to High Point after defensive issues led to five unearned runs in one inning, which is not exactly the portrait of a machine running at full symmetry.

My read by category

Starting pitcher edge: Florida State, slight
Batter form edge: Florida, slight at the top of the order, but not by enough to erase the pitching gap
Bullpen / full staff edge: Florida State

FSU moneyline:

FSU has the better overall run-prevention profile. Florida State entered this game with a 3.71 team ERA, a .204 opponent batting average, and 164 strikeouts in 126 innings, while Florida’s staff sat at a 4.46 ERA, .243 opponent average, and 118 strikeouts in 115 innings. That’s the biggest handicapper-grade reason to like the Seminoles: the full pitching staff has been sharper, not just one starter having a cute little ERA in a tiny sample.

The probable starter matchup slightly favors FSU. Florida’s official preview listed John Abraham (FSU, 1-0, 0.66 ERA) against Schuyler Sandford (UF, 1-0, 1.69 ERA). Both guys have been good early, but Abraham gets the edge on paper, and FSU’s stronger team pitching behind him makes that edge more meaningful than it would be in a vacuum.

FSU is coming in hot. The Seminoles are 13-2 and on a 9-game winning streak, capped by a sweep of Northern Kentucky that included a 17-3 run-rule win on Sunday. Florida is also good, but FSU’s form is every bit as strong and arrives with less statistical wobble on the mound.

The FSU lineup is not just surviving on one bat. Current cumulative stats show several Seminoles swinging well, including Myles Bailey (.391), Kelvyn Paulino Jr. (.387), John Stuetzer (.359), and Noah Sheffield (.352). Florida has dangerous hitters too, but FSU’s offense looks deep enough that you are not relying on one or two maniacs to carry the whole cart.

Florida has shown a little more recent fragility. The Gators just had their 13-game winning streak snapped by High Point, and that game turned on Florida letting things get away late despite a strong start. That does not mean Florida is bad — obviously not — but it does support the idea that this game is much closer to a coin flip than Florida -130 suggests.

At the price, FSU is the value side. At +100, the market implies 50%. My projection puts FSU closer to 53%, which is not some hulking edge, but it is enough to make FSU ML the better side. Tiny edges are still edges; they just wear less makeup.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NCAABB	(3615) Wake Forest at (3616) Coastal Carolina: Moneyline	6:00pm EDT - Mar 10/2026

The PLAY: Wake Forest -125

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_______

Projected win probability

• Wake Forest 58%

• Coastal Carolina 42%

Fair odds from my projection

• Wake Forest -138

• Coastal Carolina +138

Moneyline value vs the book

Book odds

• Wake Forest -125 → implied win probability 55.56%

• Coastal Carolina -105 → implied win probability 51.22%

• Edge

Wake comes in hotter and cleaner. The Deacs are on a 15-game winning streak, they’re 15-1 overall, and their official preview lists Cameron Bagwell (1-0, 3.77 ERA) as the starter, while Coastal had its starter still listed as TBA in Wake’s matchup preview. That matters in a ranked midweek game where role certainty is worth real probability.

The lineup case also leans Wake, even with Coastal at home. Wake has been pounding people during this run, and recent team notes highlighted bats like Jackson Miller, who had pushed his average to .533 during Wake’s early surge, while last season’s core bat Marek Houston returned after leading Wake with a .326 average in 2025. Coastal has some live hitters too — Dean Mihos (.400), Trace Mazon (.360), and Rex Watson with 3 home runs already — but the Chanticleers’ offense has been more concentrated in a few names rather than the same kind of relentless, layered attack Wake usually brings.

On the mound, Coastal has talent, but the current form is wobblier than Wake’s setup. Coastal’s 2026 team stats show Luke Jones 2.33 ERA, Scott Doran 5.19, and Ross Norman 8.82, with Doran taking the loss in Sunday’s 10-4 defeat to East Carolina. Coastal is also just 9-6 overall, though it has been strong at home at 8-3. That home field keeps the game close enough to matter, but not enough for me to make Coastal the favorite against a Wake club that is both hotter and more settled entering this one.

My read by category

Starting pitcher edge: Wake Forest
Bagwell is confirmed; Coastal is still TBA in the available preview.

Batter form edge: Wake Forest, slight
Wake’s current run and recent individual production profile are stronger overall, even though Coastal’s top bats are dangerous.

Bullpen / staff depth edge: Wake Forest, slight
This is more inference than hard declaration, because Coastal’s better arms are real, but Wake’s broader program-level pitching stability and current winning form give it the nod. Wake also notes its starters have matched or outlasted opponents in 70.8% of games since 2022.

Wake Forest ML:

Wake is simply the hotter, steadier club right now. The Deacs enter this game on a 15-game winning streak, tied for the longest active streak in the country at the time of the preview, and they just swept Stanford to open ACC play 3-0. That is not magic dust, but it does point to a team currently playing crisp baseball on both sides.

They also have the cleaner starting pitcher situation. Wake’s official preview lists Cameron Bagwell (1-0, 3.77 ERA) as the probable starter, while Coastal’s opponent notes had the Chanticleers’ starter still listed as TBA. In a midweek college game, having the more defined mound plan is a real plus, because these games often become bullpen chess played by raccoons.

Wake’s overall form is more convincing than Coastal’s recent profile. Coastal is 9-6 and just dropped Sunday’s game to East Carolina 10-4, allowing 10 runs on 14 hits. Coastal’s cumulative 2026 stats also show the staff has already allowed 83 runs in 130 innings, which is decent in spots but not exactly a force field.

The offensive floor leans Wake too. Wake’s recent notes highlighted that the lineup has been producing throughout this streak, and the team has consistently created pressure game after game. Coastal has dangerous bats and is not harmless at all, but Wake looks more like the deeper, more dependable offense entering this matchup.

So the clean betting case is: better current form, more reliable pregame pitching plan, deeper recent team performance, and fewer red flags than Coastal right now. At -125, that’s enough for me to like Wake Forest ML.