Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline	8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026

The PLAY: New York Yankees -120

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#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

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_______

Offense baseline

• Yankees: 5.24 R/G

• Giants: 4.35 R/G

• League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51

  • Offense index (approx):

    • NYY: 1.194

    • SFG: 0.991

Starters

Max Fried (NYY, LHP)

• 2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90

• 2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

• 2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA

• 2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA

  batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)

• Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)

• Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)

Projected lineups

• Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells

• Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey

---

1) Starter expected innings (March workload)

Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:

• Webb: 5.0 IP

• Fried: 5.1 IP

2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter

Fried context RA9

• Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09

• Small March bump = 3.24

• H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65

Webb context RA9

• Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23

• Tiny March bump: = 3.29

• H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68

3) Park/weather/travel adjustments

• Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.

• Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)

4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)

Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)

---

Projection results

Full game projected score

• NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2

• Projected total: 7.2

1st 5 innings projected score

• NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8

• 1st5 projected total: 4.0

---

Starting pitcher boxscore

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried (NYY)	5.1	2	4	6	2
Logan Webb (SFG)	5.0	2	5	5	1

---

Hitter boxscore projection

NYY hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Trent Grisham	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
Aaron Judge	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Cody Bellinger	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Rice	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Giancarlo Stanton	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Ryan McMahon	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
José Caballero	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Wells	4	0	1	0	0	0	1

SFG hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Heliot Ramos	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
Willy Adames	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Matt Chapman	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Harrison Bader	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Bryce Eldridge	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0

---

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline value vs book

Team	Model win%	Fair ML	Book ML	Book implied%	Edge (Model–Book)	Value?
NYY	62.1%	-164	-115	53.5%	+8.6%	+VALUE
SFG	37.9%	+164	+105	48.8%	-10.9%	-VALUE

Totals value (Full game O/U 7)

Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).

Market	Model proj	Model win%	Fair odds	Book odds	Edge	Value?
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push)	7.2	51.1% (no-push)	-105	-110	-1.2%	-VALUE
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push)	7.2	48.9% (no-push)	+105	-110	-3.5%	-VALUE

Totals value (1st 5 innings)

I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.

Market	Model proj (1st5)	Model win%	Fair odds	Assumed book	Edge	Value?
1st5 Over 3.5	4.0	56.5%	-130	-110	+4.1%	+VALUE
1st5 Under 3.5	4.0	43.5%	+130	-110	-8.9%	-VALUE

---

Pros for Yankees -120

• Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.

• Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.

• Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.

• Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.

• 7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(967) Milwaukee Brewers at (968) Arizona Diamondbacks: Moneyline	9:10pm EDT - Mar 20/2026

The PLAY: Milwaukee Brewers -110

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Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

• Projected winner: Brewers

  Team	Win %	Fair American odds	Book odds	Value vs book
  Brewers	53%	-113	-110	Small value on MIL (+3 cents)
  Diamondbacks	47%	+113	-110	Negative value on ARI (-23 cents)

  Projected score: Brewers 5, Diamondbacks 4.

  Milwaukee has the clearest starting-pitching edge available pregame because of Jacob Misiorowski as the Brewers’ starter while Arizona’s starter is still undecided. Misiorowski’s spring line entering this game was 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.1 IP, and 12 strikeouts, and MLB had already flagged him as one of Milwaukee’s rotation locks with a realistic path to an Opening Day start.

  On batter form and lineup quality, Milwaukee looks a bit stronger. MLB’s projected 2026 lineup has Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, Rengifo, Mitchell, and Ortiz, and MLB noted this is mostly the same core that ranked second in MLB in OBP and third in runs scored last season. Arizona’s projected lineup is solid with Perdomo, Marte, Carroll, Moreno, Arenado, Santana, Smith, Lawlar, and Thomas, but Carroll is coming off a broken hamate and MLB noted the DH spot is still unsettled during camp.

  Spring form is more favorable to Arizona overall, which is why I only make Milwaukee a narrow favorite. Spring standings show Arizona at 12-12 with 141 runs scored and 170 allowed, while Milwaukee was 10-14 with 122 scored and 122 allowed. Arizona also had the slightly better recent form, but Milwaukee’s cleaner run-prevention profile plus the better-known starter narrows that gap fast.

  Bullpen skill is close, but I lean slightly Arizona in late innings. MLB’s projected D-backs bullpen includes Kevin Ginkel, Jonathan Loáisiga, Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson, Drey Jameson and others, while MLB described Loáisiga and Brandyn Garcia as impressive this spring. Milwaukee’s projected group has Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Jared Koenig, Angel Zerpa, Grant Anderson, DL Hall and others, but MLB emphasized there were still “a ton of decisions” to make with that staff.

  Betting value

  • Brewers -110: slight value

  • Diamondbacks -110: no value

  • My fair line is basically Brewers -113 / Diamondbacks +113, so Milwaukee is only a small lean.

  Most likely script

  • Misiorowski gives Milwaukee the better chance to win the first few innings.

  • Arizona’s home lineup keeps pressure on and likely scores enough to make this competitive.

  • Milwaukee’s deeper top-to-middle lineup is the tiebreaker in a spring game with short starter usage.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBA	(301587) Xinjiang at (301588) Shenzhen	8:00am EDT - Mar 20/2026

The PLAY: First Quarter Xinjiang Over +22.5 (-115)

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Xinjiang at Shenzhen — 3/20/2026 JST

Comparison chart

Category	Shenzhen	Xinjiang
Full season points for	95.7	85.9
Full season points against	94.2	83.9
Last 5 points for	100.2	83.0
Last 5 points against	100.6	86.0
Last 5 home / away points for	99.8 home	89.6 away
Last 5 home / away points against	91.6 home	81.8 away
Top scorer 1	Lamont Smith / Terquavion Smith	Dedrick Lawson
Top scorer 2	He Xining	Qi Lin
Assist leader	Lamont Smith / Markell Johnson backcourt creation	Elfuratt Mohetaner
Top rebounder 1	Alpha Kaba	Li Yanzhe
Top rebounder 2	Marin Maric / Haoran Wang frontcourt mix	Dedrick Lawson
Injuries	No confirmed absences found in accessible public pregame sources	No confirmed absences found in accessible public pregame sources

Head to head this season

Sample	Result
Since 12/5/2025 cutoff	No qualifying H2H found
Closest accessible season meeting	Shenzhen 96, Xinjiang 95 on 12/4/2025 CBA Club Cup

Player vs player matchups

Matchup	Edge	Small evaluation
Lamont Smith vs Elfuratt Mohetaner	Shenzhen slight	Smith is the higher-usage scorer; Mohetaner is steadier as a secondary creator and spacer.
He Xining vs Qi Lin	Xinjiang slight	Qi Lin gives Xinjiang more proven wing scoring punch; He Xining is a strong secondary perimeter option.
Alpha Kaba / Haoran Wang vs Dedrick Lawson	Xinjiang	Lawson is the most bankable half-court scorer in this game.
Marin Maric / Muhao Li vs Li Yanzhe	Xinjiang slight	Li Yanzhe’s interior finishing efficiency gives Xinjiang a paint-pressure advantage.
Shenzhen team guard depth vs Xinjiang team guard depth	Shenzhen slight	Shenzhen’s backcourt scoring volume has been better lately; Xinjiang’s guard offense has been inconsistent.

1st quarter trends and projection

1Q data used

Shenzhen last 5 overall 1Q

Date	Opponent	Shenzhen Q1	Opponent Q1
3/18	Tianjin	27	23
3/16	Guangzhou	24	25
3/13	Guangdong	22	29
3/11	Liaoning	24	22
2/3	Nanjing	25	26

Xinjiang last 5 overall 1Q

Date	Opponent	Xinjiang Q1	Opponent Q1
3/17	Guangdong	16	21
3/15	Royal Fighters	30	27
3/13	Jilin	25	21
3/11	Guangdong	19	28
2/3	Zhejiang	14	18

Shenzhen last 5 home 1Q

Date	Opponent	Shenzhen Q1	Opponent Q1
3/16	Guangzhou	24	25
3/13	Guangdong	22	29
3/11	Liaoning	24	22
1/25	Nanjing	26	15
12/29	Liaoning	27	31

Xinjiang last 5 away 1Q

Date	Opponent	Xinjiang Q1	Opponent Q1
3/17	Guangdong	16	21
2/1	Sichuan	23	6
1/29	Jiangsu	15	25
1/27	Nanjing	24	32
1/20	Jiangsu	24	13