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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline | 8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026 |
The PLAY: New York Yankees -120
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Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
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_______
Offense baseline
Yankees: 5.24 R/G
Giants: 4.35 R/G
League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51
Offense index (approx):
NYY: 1.194
SFG: 0.991
Starters
Max Fried (NYY, LHP)
2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90
2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)
2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA
2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA
batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)
Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)
Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)
Projected lineups
Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells
Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey
1) Starter expected innings (March workload)
Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:
Webb: 5.0 IP
Fried: 5.1 IP
2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter
Fried context RA9
Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09
Small March bump = 3.24
H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65
Webb context RA9
Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23
Tiny March bump: = 3.29
H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68
3) Park/weather/travel adjustments
Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.
Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)
4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)
Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)
Projection results
Full game projected score
NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2
Projected total: 7.2
1st 5 innings projected score
NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8
1st5 projected total: 4.0
Starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Fried (NYY) | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
Logan Webb (SFG) | 5.0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Hitter boxscore projection
NYY hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trent Grisham | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Aaron Judge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Cody Bellinger | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ben Rice | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ryan McMahon | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
José Caballero | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Austin Wells | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
SFG hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heliot Ramos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Rafael Devers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Willy Adames | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matt Chapman | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jung Hoo Lee | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Harrison Bader | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Bryce Eldridge | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Casey Schmitt | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Patrick Bailey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wager & Probability Analysis
Moneyline value vs book
Team | Model win% | Fair ML | Book ML | Book implied% | Edge (Model–Book) | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NYY | 62.1% | -164 | -115 | 53.5% | +8.6% | +VALUE |
SFG | 37.9% | +164 | +105 | 48.8% | -10.9% | -VALUE |
Totals value (Full game O/U 7)
Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).
Market | Model proj | Model win% | Fair odds | Book odds | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 51.1% (no-push) | -105 | -110 | -1.2% | -VALUE |
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 48.9% (no-push) | +105 | -110 | -3.5% | -VALUE |
Totals value (1st 5 innings)
I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.
Market | Model proj (1st5) | Model win% | Fair odds | Assumed book | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st5 Over 3.5 | 4.0 | 56.5% | -130 | -110 | +4.1% | +VALUE |
1st5 Under 3.5 | 4.0 | 43.5% | +130 | -110 | -8.9% | -VALUE |
Pros for Yankees -120
Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.
Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.
Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.
Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.
7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| JNPB | Rakuten Golden Eagles at Yomiuri Giants | 1:00am EDT - Mar 21/2026 |
The PLAY: Yomiuri Giants -110
ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT
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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!
Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
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Follow
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_______
Japanese Spring games AVAILABLE ON DRAFTKINGS!
Spencer Howard is confirmed for Yomiuri, but I could not verify Rakuten’s official announced starter from the accessible sources but it looks like Kose Itsuki. This is open-season play at Tokyo Dome on March 21, with the 2026 preseason ending March 22 and the regular season opening March 27, so I’m assuming slightly shorter starter leashes than a regular-season NPB game.
Outline of reasoning and calculations
1) Starting-point data I weighted most
Giants at Tokyo Dome in 2025: 210 runs scored, 174 allowed in 64 games = 3.28 RS / 2.72 RA per game.
Giants home in March/April 2025: 49 RS, 30 RA in 13 games = 3.77 / 2.31.
Giants home on Saturdays in 2025: 54 RS, 34 RA in 14 games = 3.86 / 2.43.
Rakuten away in 2025: 222 RS, 278 RA in 71 games = 3.13 / 3.92.
Rakuten away in March/April 2025: 42 RS, 36 RA in 13 games = 3.23 / 2.77.
Rakuten away on Saturdays in 2025: 33 RS, 64 RA in 13 games = 2.54 / 4.92.
Rakuten at Tokyo Dome in 2025: 10 RS, 17 RA in 5 games = 2.00 / 3.40.
2) Baseline run model
Giants scoring baseline
Weighted blend of Giants home/Tokyo Dome/March-Saturday offense plus Rakuten road/Tokyo Dome prevention = 3.6575 runs.Rakuten scoring baseline
Weighted blend of Rakuten road/March-Saturday offense plus Giants home/Tokyo Dome prevention = 2.698 runs.
3) Starter layer
Howard: 2025 official NPB line was 9 appearances, 48.2 IP, 42 H, 11 BB, 36 K, 2.22 ERA. He is confirmed to start this game and is facing his former team Rakuten, which means there is no real 2025 official batter-vs-pitcher game sample of Howard against the current Rakuten lineup to lean on; that “familiarity” is mostly from being former teammates, not opponent BvP data.
Kose probable-starter scenario: 2025 line was 19 G, 18 GS, 107.0 IP, 118 H, 27 BB, 76 K, 3.70 ERA. His last verified spring outing was March 15 vs Chunichi: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 5 K, 2 BB, 4 ER. Because Rakuten’s official 3/21 starter was not cleanly verifiable, I treated Kose as the most plausible fit but not as confirmed.
4) Bullpen layer
Historically, both clubs’ March/April bullpens were solid in 2025: Giants relievers had a 2.55 ERA, Rakuten relievers a 2.76 ERA. But the March 20 exhibition matters: Rakuten used 5 relievers after Shoji, while Yomiuri used 4 relievers after Takemaru. That pushes my full-game total a little higher than the first-5 total, especially late if Howard exits after 4-5 innings.
5) Lineup/form layer
I used the March 20 starters as the likely lineup core because I could not verify official March 21 lineups from the accessible sources. On March 20, Yomiuri started Cabbage, Matsumoto Go, Urata, Dalbec, Kishida, Nakayama, Sakamoto, Masuda, with the pitcher batting 9th; Rakuten started Nakajima, Kurokawa, Voit, McCusker, Murabayashi, Asamura, Muneyama, Gonzalez, Ota with the DH. In that same game, Asamura homered again, while Yomiuri’s preseason form indicators were strong for Kishida (.583) and Masuda (.667). Through March 20, the Giants were 9-4-1 in open-season play and Rakuten 3-9-5.
6) Head-to-head / park / travel adjustments
The 2025 Yomiuri-Rakuten Tokyo Dome set was low scoring: Rakuten won 2-0 on June 6 behind Howard, then Yomiuri won 2-0 on June 7 and 5-0 on June 8. That supports a modest total again. Tokyo Dome removes almost all meaningful outdoor-weather effect. Rakuten’s schedule also shows a Belluna-to-Tokyo road swing (3/17-18 at Belluna, 3/20-22 at Tokyo Dome), which is some travel but not a major fatigue spike. Because Yomiuri is home, there is also a small chance the bottom of the 9th is not played, which trims their full-game offensive ceiling slightly.
7) Final numerical adjustments
Giants baseline: 3.66
Rakuten baseline: 2.70
Projected score
Segment | Rakuten | giant |
|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 1.2 | 2.1 |
Full game | 2.7 | 3.5 |
Projected starting-pitcher game lines
Pitcher | Team | IP | IS | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Itsuki | Rakuten | 4 0/3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Spencer Howard | giant | 4 2/3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
Projected hitter lines
These are projected box-score-style medians for the likely starting lineups based on March 20 usage, so they will not sum perfectly to the decimal score projection above.
Giants
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cabbage | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matsumoto Tsuyoshi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Shunsuke Urata | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Dalbeck | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Yukinori Kishida | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Zhongshan Lidu | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Hayato Sakamoto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Riku Masuda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Howard (P) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Rakuten
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Daisuke Nakajima | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Kurokawa Fumiya | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Voight | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
McCusker | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kazuki Murabayashi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Hideto Asamura | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Rui Muneyama | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Gonzalez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Hikaru Ota | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | Projected win % | Projected fair odds | DraftKings today |
|---|---|---|---|
giant | 61.7% | -161 | -110 |
Rakuten | 38.3% | +161 | +120 |
Bottom line
1st 5: Giants 2.1 – 1.2
Full game: Giants 3.5 – 2.7
Lean: Giants, with the bigger edge in the first 5 because Howard’s confirmed start is the cleanest pitcher input in the matchup.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (967) Milwaukee Brewers at (968) Arizona Diamondbacks: Moneyline | 9:10pm EDT - Mar 20/2026 |
The PLAY: Milwaukee Brewers -110
ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT
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50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!
🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!
Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
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Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon
_______
Projected winner: Brewers
Team
Win %
Fair American odds
Book odds
Value vs book
Brewers
53%
-113
-110
Small value on MIL (+3 cents)
Diamondbacks
47%
+113
-110
Negative value on ARI (-23 cents)
Projected score: Brewers 5, Diamondbacks 4
Milwaukee has the clearest starting-pitching edge available pregame because of Jacob Misiorowski as the Brewers’ starter while Arizona’s starter is still undecided. Misiorowski’s spring line entering this game was 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.1 IP, and 12 strikeouts, and MLB had already flagged him as one of Milwaukee’s rotation locks with a realistic path to an Opening Day start.
On batter form and lineup quality, Milwaukee looks a bit stronger. MLB’s projected 2026 lineup has Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, Rengifo, Mitchell, and Ortiz, and MLB noted this is mostly the same core that ranked second in MLB in OBP and third in runs scored last season. Arizona’s projected lineup is solid with Perdomo, Marte, Carroll, Moreno, Arenado, Santana, Smith, Lawlar, and Thomas, but Carroll is coming off a broken hamate and MLB noted the DH spot is still unsettled during camp.
Spring form is more favorable to Arizona overall, which is why I only make Milwaukee a narrow favorite. Spring standings show Arizona at 12-12 with 141 runs scored and 170 allowed, while Milwaukee was 10-14 with 122 scored and 122 allowed. Arizona also had the slightly better recent form, but Milwaukee’s cleaner run-prevention profile plus the better-known starter narrows that gap fast.
Bullpen skill is close, but I lean slightly Arizona in late innings. MLB’s projected D-backs bullpen includes Kevin Ginkel, Jonathan Loáisiga, Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson, Drey Jameson and others, while MLB described Loáisiga and Brandyn Garcia as impressive this spring. Milwaukee’s projected group has Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Jared Koenig, Angel Zerpa, Grant Anderson, DL Hall and others, but MLB emphasized there were still “a ton of decisions” to make with that staff.
Betting value
Brewers -110: slight value
Diamondbacks -110: no value
My fair line is basically Brewers -113 / Diamondbacks +113, so Milwaukee is only a small lean.
Most likely script
Misiorowski gives Milwaukee the better chance to win the first few innings.
Arizona’s home lineup keeps pressure on and likely scores enough to make this competitive.
Milwaukee’s deeper top-to-middle lineup is the tiebreaker in a spring game with short starter usage.