Free NPB Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers
Tokyo Brandon
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(304091) Seibu Lions at (304092) Rakuten Gold. Eagles: Moneyline
The Play
Seibu Lions -118
(304091) Seibu Lions at (304092) Rakuten Gold. Eagles: Moneyline
NPB
Seibu Lions -118
(304091) Seibu Lions at (304092) Rakuten Gold. Eagles: Moneyline
The Play
Seibu Lions -118
(304091) Seibu Lions at (304092) Rakuten Gold. Eagles: Moneyline
NPB
Seibu Lions -118
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TEAM Hitting
SP Career
SP Season
BP
Team
Starting Pitcher
RPG (12)
RPG L10 (12)
OPS (12)
wOBA (12)
Rank (12)
WHIP
BB/K%
FIP
ERA
WHIP
BB/K%
rank (12)
Lions
TAKEUCHI
5
6
3
5
3.9
1.13
22.8%
2.85
2.64
0.85
20.0%
4
Eagles
SHOJI
9
7
10
6
7.8
1.32
27.6%
3.80
4.39
1.35
26.1%
12
I have Seibu better at almost everything in this one so I am betting them on the money line.
Full game: Seibu 4–2
Projected win probability: Seibu 64%
Estimated fair Seibu moneyline: -178
Starting pitchers
Rakuten: Kosei Shoji, RHP
Statistic
2026
Record
4–8
ERA
4.39
Innings
84.0
WHIP
1.26
Home runs allowed
14
Shoji’s strikeout and control numbers are good: 9.86 K/9 with only 2.57 BB/9. The major problem is hard contact. He has surrendered 14 home runs in 84 innings—approximately 1.50 HR/9.
Shoji has allowed at least four runs in four consecutive starts. His strikeout ability remains intact, but he has not been able to prevent damaging innings.
Against Seibu this season
Two starts
5.25 ERA
Seibu: Natsuki Takeuchi, LHP
Statistic
2026
Record
6–4
ERA
2.64
Innings
81⅔
WHIP
1.02
Home runs allowed
5
Takeuchi has the superior profile in every important category. He combines excellent command with a strong 8.27 K/9 and has permitted only five home runs. His 5.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .230 opponent batting average support the low ERA..
2.00 runs-allowed average over his last four starts, with 30 strikeouts and excellent length.
Takeuchi projection: 6⅔ innings, one or two earned runs, six to seven strikeouts.
Hitting form
Rakuten
Rakuten is 6–4 over its last 10 games, scoring 38 runs and allowing 41:
Average runs scored: 3.8
Average runs allowed: 4.1
Seibu
Seibu is 5–4–1 over its last 10 games:
Runs scored: 41
Runs allowed: 31
Bullpens
Seibu bullpen: advantage
Seibu owns a league-best team pitching profile:
2.70 team ERA
1.14 WHIP
.223 opponent batting average
Rakuten bullpen: more volatile
Rakuten has a 3.69 team ERA and substantially less middle-relief stability.
The strongest arm is closer Naoto Fujihira:
2.12 ERA
18 saves
34 strikeouts in 29⅔ innings
Takeuchi is pitching considerably better than Shoji.
Shoji has allowed four or more runs in four straight starts.
Takeuchi has allowed only six runs across his last 27 innings.
Seibu has the deeper and more dependable bullpen.
Rakuten Mobile Park has become more home-run friendly in 2026, which particularly hurts the home-run-prone Shoji.
Most likely result: Seibu 4, Rakuten 2.