Tokyo Brandon
Event: (304251) Nippon Ham Fighters at (304252) Hiroshima Carp: Moneyline
Sport/League: JNPB
Date/Time: June 16, 2026 5:00 AM EDT
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Projection: Nippon Ham 4, Hiroshima 2
F5 projection: Nippon Ham 2, Hiroshima 1
I'm treating Hiroshima as home/batting second because the official NPB schedule lists the game at Mazda Stadium, 18:00, Hiroshima vs Nippon-Ham , and the announced starters are Saito Yuta vs Kitayama Koki .
Factor | Edge | Why |
|---|---|---|
Full-season hitting | Nippon Ham | Nippon-Ham: .243 / .310 / .395, 261 R in 66 G = 3.95 R/G . Hiroshima: .215 / .277 / .314, 175 R in 61 G = 2.87 R/G . Big power gap too: Nippon-Ham 77 HR vs Hiroshima 38 HR. |
Last 10 hitting | Nippon Ham | Nippon Ham has scored 40 runs in their last 10 games (4.0/G) ; Hiroshima has scored 30 runs in their last 10 games (3.0/G) based on their June game logs. |
Starter | Nippon Ham Big | Kitayama is the bankable arm: 10 G, 5-2, 2.33 ERA, 65.2 IP, 58 K, 15 BB, and his last start was a 9 IP, 1 R complete game. 斉藤 has no 2026 ichi-gun line, so this is more volatile; his 2026 farm line is solid, 7 G, 22.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 22 K, 8 BB, but he is not as stretched/trustworthy as 北山. |
Bullpen / run prevention | Slight Hiroshima | Hiroshima's season team ERA is 2.88 , better than Nippon Ham's 3.38 , and Hiroshima has allowed only 11 runs over its last 5 games . However, Nippon Ham's back-end is still strong enough with players like Yanagawa, Shimamoto, Tanaka Masayoshi, Hori, etc. |
Venue/rules | Slight under | Because this is at a Central League park in 2026, no DH should be used, which clips some offense, especially for the Pacific League visitor. |
My read
Ham should get the early scoring chances. Saito’s farm stats are not bad, but this is a nasty assignment: a better offense, more power, and a team that has been rolling at 9-1 in its last 10 before this makeup game. I’d project him around 4–4.2 IP, 2–3 ER.
The Carp can hang around because of pitching and park/rules context, but the offense is the problem. Against Kitayama, who is averaging over 6.5 innings per appearance this year and just went complete-game mode, I don’t love Hiroshima’s path to more than 2–3 runs unless they get him out early.
Full-season team form
Team | Record | Runs/G | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hiroshima | 23-35-3 | 2.87 | .215 | .277 | .314 | .591 | 38 |
Nippon Ham | 36-30 | 3.95 | .243 | .310 | .395 | .706 | 77 |
NPB standings show Hiroshima at 61 G, 23-35-3 and Nippon-Ham at 66 G, 36-30 through June 15. The team batting table has Hiroshima at 175 R, .215/.277/.314, 38 HR, and Nippon-Ham at 261 R, .243/.310/.395, 77 HR.
Last 10 hitting / scoring form
Team | Last 10 record | Runs scored | Runs/G | Runs allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Hiroshima | 4-5-1 | 30 | 3.0 | 28 |
Nippon Ham | 8-2 | 40 | 4.0 | 20 |
Starting pitchers
Pitcher | Season / level | IP | ERA / RA trend | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yuta Saito | 2026 farm | 22.1 | 2.42 ERA | 15 | 22 | 8 |
Kitayama Kōki | 2026 NPB | 65.2 | 2.33 ERA | 50 | 58 | 15 |
Full-season pitching / bullpen base
Team | Team ERA | WHIP | HR allowed | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hiroshima | 2.94 | 1.20 | 28 | 20.2% | 7.6% |
Nippon Ham | 3.29 | 1.18 | 57 | 20.9% | 6.8% |
Final score call
Nippon Ham 4 — Hiroshima 2
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