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The confirmed starters are Ousuke Fukazawa for DeNA vs. Reia Nakachi for Chunichi at Yokohama Stadium.

Factor

BayStars edge

Starting pitcher

Large

Season offense

Large

2026 H2H

Large

Home field

Moderate

Recent offensive form

Moderate/large

Bullpen

Fairly close

Overall matchup

Strong DeNA setup

1. Fukazawa vs. Nakachi is the biggest reason

Fukazawa has been legitimately good in his first extended NPB season:.

Ousuke Fukazawa — 2026

• 5-1

• 2.90 ERA

• 49.2 IP

• 35 K

• Only 16 earned runs allowed

Reia Nakachi — 2026 NPB

• 4 appearances

• 7.0 IP

• 10.29 ERA

• 2.00 WHIP

• .355 batting average allowed

• 11 hits + 3 walks in only 34 batters faced

• 8 earned runs

There is some regression risk in those ugly numbers because his .455 BABIP is unsustainably high and his FIP is much better at 3.73. So I would not treat Nakachi as a true 10-ERA pitcher..

But there's still a huge uncertainty difference here: Fukazawa has demonstrated that he can get NPB hitters out as a starter; Nakachi hasn't done that in 2026 yet.

Through September 21, DeNA is 14-8-1 against Chunichi in 2026.

That's a 63.6% win rate excluding the tie.

Chunichi is only 8-14-1 against DeNA.

It isn't just a full-season artifact, either. In the most recent Yokohama series before this one:

• Aug. 28: DeNA 4, Chunichi 2

• Aug. 29: DeNA 1, Chunichi 0

• Aug. 30: DeNA 4, Chunichi 3

That's a three-game DeNA sweep at Yokohama Stadium.

DeNA has scored 67 more runs despite having played two fewer games.

That's roughly:

DeNA: 3.91 runs/game
Chunichi: 3.36 runs/game

A half-run per game difference is pretty substantial in NPB.

My projection

Taking the confirmed pitching matchup into account:

Projected score: BayStars 4.3 – Dragons 2.8