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Carlos Carrasco vs. Kim Han-kyeol

Projection

LG 6 – Lotte 3

Model:

• LG 70%

• Lotte 30%

• Fair LG ML: -233

• Projected total: 9.2–9.6

• Stronger betting angle: UNDER 10.5

This is easily the biggest starting-pitcher mismatch on Friday.

Starting pitching

Pitcher

ERA

WHIP

Sample

Carlos Carrasco

3.93

~1.02

55 IP

Kim Han-kyeol

8.10

1.30

10 IP

Carrasco has gone 6-2 with a 3.93 ERA since arriving in the KBO. He has allowed only nine walks over 55 innings, which is particularly attractive against a lineup that needs free baserunners to create crooked innings.

Kim is basically making an experimental late-season start.

His first-team numbers:

10 IP
7 H
6 BB
2 HR
9 K
8.10 ERA
6.49 FIP

LG has just snapped the prolonged slump with consecutive wins, while Lotte enters on a four-game losing streak..

LG's season-long matchup advantage also matters:

LG 8-6 vs Lotte in 2026.

LG needs a win to hold the #3 playoff spot, Lotte is playing for nothing.