Tokyo Brandon
Event: (304623) Lotte Giants at (304624) Kia Tigers: Moneyline
Sport/League: KBO
Date/Time: April 24, 2026 5:30 AM EDT
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Projected score: KIA 4.7, LOTTE 3.5
Projected 1st 5: KIA 2.6, LOTTE 1.8
Main projection lean: KIA ML
LOTTE’s bullpen is not completely dead, but it has a few soft spots. Choi Jun-yong has been excellent at 1.00 ERA / 0.89 WHIP, but Kim Won-jung is at 6.43 ERA / 2.29 WHIP, Choi E-jun is at 7.94 ERA / 1.76 WHIP, and Park Joon-woo is at 7.20 ERA / 1.80 WHIP.
Recent use: LOTTE got 6 strong innings from Rodriguez on April 23, so only Hyeon Do-hoon 1 IP, Park Jeong-min 1 IP, Choi Jun-yong 1 IP were needed. That helps their bullpen entering this game.
KIA’s bullpen has been shaky. The active roster shows multiple high-ERA relief arms: Jung Hai-young 12.27 ERA, Hong Min-gyu 10.80, Hwang Dong-ha 10.03, Kim Beom-su 7.45, while Sung Yeong-tak has been excellent at 0.77 ERA / 0.94 WHIP.
Recent fatigue is a concern: on April 22, KIA used Jung Hai-young, Kim Beom-su, Cho Sang-woo, and Han Jae-seung after Naile; on April 23, KIA used Hong Min-gyu, Choi Ji-min, and Kim Keon-kuk after Lee Eui-lee.
Using only the projected score KIA 4.7, LOTTE 3.5, with team-run distributions and ties split 50/50:
KIA value at -194 or better
Final call: KIA 4.7, LOTTE 3.5
1st 5 call: KIA 2.6, LOTTE 1.8
Best angle by projected score: KIA ML, playable mainly if the price is -170 or better, stronger if around -150.
Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago
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