Tokyo Brandon
Event: (304633) Samsung Lions at (304634) Kiwoom Heroes
Sport/League: KBO
Date/Time: April 25, 2026 4:00 AM EDT
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Samsung at Kiwoom
Matchup: Won Tae-in vs. Ha Yeong-min
Venue: Gocheok Sky Dome, 5:00pm KST. Because this is a dome, I treated weather as essentially neutral even though the listed outdoor conditions are clear and mild. MyKBO lists this matchup, venue, records, starter seasons, and weather report on the game page.
Samsung is the stronger run environment side: 5.41 R/G overall, 6.00 R/G away, 5.74 R/G in April, and 5.30 R/G over the last 10. Kiwoom’s run prevention is much better at home than overall, allowing 3.70 R/G at home, but Samsung’s road offense and contact profile still push the Lions above 5 projected runs.
Kiwoom’s offense is weak by every current split: 3.48 R/G overall, 3.10 R/G at home, 3.20 R/G in April, and 2.60 R/G over the last 10. Samsung’s away prevention is shakier, allowing 4.89 R/G away, which keeps Kiwoom from projecting too low.
Won’s 2026 sample is only 8 1/3 IP, with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9 H, 5 K, 2 BB, but his 2025 and 2024 baselines are much stronger: 3.24 ERA in 166 2/3 IP in 2025 and 3.66 ERA in 159 2/3 IP in 2024. I treated him as the best run-prevention piece in this matchup.
The cleanest verified recent start I found against Kiwoom since 7/1/2024 was May 20, 2025, when Won threw 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 6 K, 2 BB at Gocheok. That lowers Kiwoom’s 1st-5 projection.
Ha’s 2026 line is 4.26 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 19 IP, 18 H, 15 K, 12 BB, with good run prevention but a walk profile that can get dangerous against Samsung’s patient bats.
Against Samsung in verified post-7/1/2024 starts, Ha was volatile: 7 IP, 3 ER on May 21, 2025; 4 IP, 8 ER on Aug. 22, 2025; and 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER on Sept. 3, 2025. That is 16 2/3 IP, 11 ER, or about a 5.94 ERA in those starts.
Samsung’s bullpen profile is strong: 2.57 ERA overall, 1.43 ERA away, and 2.32 ERA in April. The concern is yesterday’s usage: Samsung used five pitchers after an early starter exit in the 6–4 loss, including Im Gi-yeong for 1 1/3 IP / 40 pitches and Lee Seung-min for 2 2/3 IP / 40 pitches.
Kiwoom’s bullpen is solid at home: 3.18 ERA home, 3.24 ERA in April, and 2.80 ERA over the last 10. But the previous game required heavy work too, with Bae Dong-hyun throwing 4 IP / 78 pitches and Yuto Kanakubo closing with 1 IP / 30 pitches.
Using the projected score and a Pythagorean win model:
Team | Projected fair odds | DK / market odds | DK odds − projected odds |
|---|---|---|---|
Samsung | -186 | -205 | -19 |
Kiwoom | +186 | +170 | -16 |
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