Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants	8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026

The PLAY: Max Fried 5+ Strikeouts

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time

50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

_______

Projected starting pitcher boxscore

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried	5 2/3	2	5	6	2
Logan Webb	5 2/3	2	5	6	2

Fried’s 2025 road split was basically neutral for strikeouts: 101 K in 17 road starts = 5.9 K/start, almost identical to his full-season 5.9. His raw 2025 day/night split leaned much better in night games (119 K in 18 starts = 6.6 K/start) than day games (70 K in 14 starts = 5.0 K/start), but because this opener starts at 5:05 p.m. local time, I treat it as a twilight start rather than a full night-game boost. San Francisco also struck out 24.7% of the time vs left-handed pitching in 2025, but MLB’s projected Opening Day lineup notes that the arrival of Luis Arraez adds elite contact to a group that still has swing-and-miss from Devers, Adames, and Chapman, so I give only a modest opponent bump. Fried’s final spring tune-up came on March 19, when he threw 81 pitches over five innings and said he was ready for Opening Day, so I do not dock him for fatigue or injury, though I still apply a tiny “Opening Day leash” trim. Oracle also remains a generally pitcher-friendly environment in recent park-factor coverage, and the forecast is cool and clear, which modestly helps run prevention and leash stability.

Official projection: Max Fried 5.6 strikeouts

Wager & Probability Analysis (Model-Driven)

CATEGORY	NAME	#	Model prob.	over-under odds	DK over-under odds	projection-DK over-under comparison	Confidence
Strikeouts	Max Fried Over	5+ K	65.8%	-192	-177	Over value +15 cents	3/5

Fair-odds read

Market	Fair odds	DK odds	Value
5+ K	-192	-177	Small over value

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline	8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026

The PLAY: New York Yankees -120

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time

50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

_______

Offense baseline

• Yankees: 5.24 R/G

• Giants: 4.35 R/G

• League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51

  • Offense index (approx):

    • NYY: 1.194

    • SFG: 0.991

Starters

Max Fried (NYY, LHP)

• 2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90

• 2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

• 2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA

• 2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA

  batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)

• Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)

• Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)

Projected lineups

• Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells

• Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey

---

1) Starter expected innings (March workload)

Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:

• Webb: 5.0 IP

• Fried: 5.1 IP

2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter

Fried context RA9

• Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09

• Small March bump = 3.24

• H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65

Webb context RA9

• Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23

• Tiny March bump: = 3.29

• H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68

3) Park/weather/travel adjustments

• Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.

• Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)

4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)

Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)

---

Projection results

Full game projected score

• NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2

• Projected total: 7.2

1st 5 innings projected score

• NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8

• 1st5 projected total: 4.0

---

Starting pitcher boxscore

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried (NYY)	5.1	2	4	6	2
Logan Webb (SFG)	5.0	2	5	5	1

---

Hitter boxscore projection

NYY hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Trent Grisham	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
Aaron Judge	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Cody Bellinger	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Rice	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Giancarlo Stanton	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Ryan McMahon	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
José Caballero	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Wells	4	0	1	0	0	0	1

SFG hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Heliot Ramos	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
Willy Adames	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Matt Chapman	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Harrison Bader	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Bryce Eldridge	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0

---

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline value vs book

Team	Model win%	Fair ML	Book ML	Book implied%	Edge (Model–Book)	Value?
NYY	62.1%	-164	-115	53.5%	+8.6%	+VALUE
SFG	37.9%	+164	+105	48.8%	-10.9%	-VALUE

Totals value (Full game O/U 7)

Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).

Market	Model proj	Model win%	Fair odds	Book odds	Edge	Value?
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push)	7.2	51.1% (no-push)	-105	-110	-1.2%	-VALUE
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push)	7.2	48.9% (no-push)	+105	-110	-3.5%	-VALUE

Totals value (1st 5 innings)

I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.

Market	Model proj (1st5)	Model win%	Fair odds	Assumed book	Edge	Value?
1st5 Over 3.5	4.0	56.5%	-130	-110	+4.1%	+VALUE
1st5 Under 3.5	4.0	43.5%	+130	-110	-8.9%	-VALUE

---

Pros for Yankees -120

• Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.

• Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.

• Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.

• Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.

• 7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBA	(301511) Beijing at (301512) Jilin	7:35am EDT - Mar 23/2026

The PLAY: First Quarter Beijing Over +24.5 (110)

Beijing Ducks 1Q over 24.5

• Beijing has already cleared this number recently. They scored 26 in the 1Q at Fujian on March 19, then won at Liaoning on March 21, showing their offense is still in solid form entering this Jilin game.

• Jilin is vulnerable early on defense. In my earlier blend, Jilin’s recent 1Q defense was one of the reasons Beijing’s quarter projection stayed competitive; the matchup preview also shows Jilin as a weaker overall defensive team than Beijing.

• Beijing is the better team and can dictate the opening. The current preview lists Beijing 18-10 and Jilin 11-16, with Beijing clearly stronger on both ends. Better teams often cash modest 1Q overs simply by winning the possession quality battle early.

• Beijing’s recent offense has real ceiling. They put up 104 at Fujian and 93 at Liaoning in back-to-back games, so asking for 25 in one quarter is not unreasonable if the pace is decent.

• The over only needs one hot stretch. A couple early transition baskets, one made three, and normal free throws can get Beijing into the mid-20s quickly.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(955) Arizona Diamondbacks at (956) San Diego Padres: Moneyline	9:10pm EDT - Mar 22/2026

The PLAY: San Diego Padres -140

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time

50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

_______

Projected score: Padres 5, Diamondbacks 4

San Diego gets the starting-pitching edge. Walker Buehler vs. Joe Ross for this spring game. Buehler enters at 2-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 11.2 IP, while Ross is 1-0, 7.71 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in 7.0 IP. That is the biggest separator in the matchup.

Jordan Lawlar is highlighted for Arizona, while Nick Schnell is the listed Padres power leader. That points more toward a competitive mid-scoring spring game than a one-sided result..

My number says Padres should be favored, Arizona also is not getting enough of a plus price at +106 to rate as value.

Padres moneyline:

• Starting pitcher edge. San Diego has Walker Buehler lined up against Joe Ross, and Buehler’s spring form is clearly better: 2-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 13 K in 11.2 IP versus Ross at 1-0, 7.71 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 6 K in 7.0 IP. That is the cleanest Padres case on the board..

• Better chance to control the first half of the game. In spring training, the best starter often matters most for the first few innings before the reliever carousel begins. Since San Diego’s main edge is upfront with Buehler, the Padres have the stronger path to an early lead.

• Arizona has a few meaningful absences. The injury report for this matchup shows Lourdes Gurriel Jr. out, plus Merrill Kelly and others unavailable, which trims some lineup depth and overall roster stability for Arizona in a spring setting.

• Padres roster momentum is improving late in camp. Reporting around San Diego notes that Buehler earned an Opening Day roster spot and has looked effective enough to claim a real rotation role, which supports the idea that this is not just random spring noise.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(957) Los Angeles Dodgers at (958) Los Angeles Angels: Moneyline	9:07pm EDT - Mar 22/2026

The PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers -184

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time

50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

_______

The Dodgers have been mowing teams over in Spring, they are playing almost better than they do in the regular season. With all starters on deck for the first 4 innings and Glasnow on the mound I expect a win here.

Starter comparison

Glasnow’s current spring line is 1-0, 4.22 ERA, 15 K, while Klassen’s is 1-1, 3.86 ERA, 10 K. The spring ERA gap is not the real story: Glasnow is the established MLB arm and is making his final tune-up before the season, while Klassen is still a high-upside prospect with loud stuff but shakier command. MLB Pipeline grades Klassen’s fastball 70 and control 45, which fits the usual spring risk profile against an elite lineup.

Likely lineup strength

MLB’s lineup page for this game shows the Dodgers with Ohtani, Tucker, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Muncy, Teoscar Hernández, Pages, Freeland, while the Angels show Neto, Trout, Schanuel, Soler, Moncada, Adell, Josh Lowe, O’Hoppe, Peraza. That is a very real edge to Los Angeles on top-end thump, OBP quality, and lineup length.

BvP note

From 4/15/2025 forward, there is not enough meaningful batter-vs-pitcher sample here to drive the projection. Klassen has essentially no meaningful current-roster history against this Dodgers group in MLB settings, and the useful post-4/15/2025 Glasnow-vs-current-Angels-bats sample is limited enough that I only use it as a tiny adjustment rather than a primary input. That makes the model more dependent on talent level, current spring deployment, and relief/depth context.

Angels offense vs Glasnow

• Glasnow baseline suppression: 1.2

• Angels top-of-order quality bump: +0.55

• Weather/park: +0.10

• Spring exposure benefit if Glasnow exits early: +0.15

Projected LAA F5 runs = 2.0

Projected 1st 5 score

Segment	Dodgers	Angels	Total
First 5 innings	3.3	2.0	5.3

Late innings model

Here I lean heavily on the team context. The Dodgers had a 3.95 team ERA in 2025 versus the Angels’ 4.89, and the Dodgers’ 2026 prospect pool is much deeper at the top, which matters a lot once spring benches empty.

Dodgers late offense vs Angels bullpen/depth

Base late scoring estimate: 2.6

Angels late offense vs Dodgers bullpen/depth

Base late scoring estimate: 1.9

Projected full game score

Segment	Dodgers	Angels	Total
First 5	3.3	2.0	5.3
Innings 6-9	2.6	1.9	4.5
Full game	5.9	3.9	9.8

Final projected score

Dodgers 5.9, Angels 3.9