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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(913) New York Yankees at (914) Tampa Bay Rays: F5 Team Total	6:10pm EDT - Apr 11/2026

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Fried's numbers against these batters are stellar which is the main reason for this play.

NYY at TBR — Saturday, April 11, 2026

Venue / time / market
The game is at Tropicana Field at 6:10 p.m. EDT with Max Fried vs. Nick Martinez confirmed as the probable matchup. The live consensus market is around Yankees -190 / Rays +155, with a 7.5 full-game total near even juice. Tropicana Field has reopened with its rebuilt roof, so weather is effectively neutralized for this game even though the outside temperature is around 81°F.

Projection

Full game: NYY 4.6, TBR 2.9
First 5 innings: NYY 2.7, TBR 1.2

The model is lower-scoring than a neutral AL East game because the environment is indoors, Fried projects deeper than Martinez, and Tampa Bay’s offense has been only moderate against left-handed pitching. New York still projects as the better offense overall and the better recent pitching team.

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Reasoning and calculations

1) April run environment

April totals are kept slightly lower than midseason because of smaller-sample offense and fewer fully stretched lineups, but the indoor setting removes the usual cold-weather outdoor suppression. That keeps the total near the low-7s rather than pushing it down sharply. Tropicana’s controlled environment matters more than the outside forecast here.

2) Away/home and day-night split framing

New York is the road team and loses the guaranteed bottom of the ninth, which trims its raw run expectation slightly. Tampa Bay gets home plate appearances, but that is offset by the pitching mismatch and weaker matchup split versus Fried. This is also a night game, not a day game.

3) Max Fried vs. Tampa Bay hitters

Fried’s current 2026 line is 2-0, 1.35 ERA, 0.75 WHIP in 20.0 innings. The in-window head-to-head sample against Tampa Bay is elite: from April 20, 2025 through July 29, 2025, Fried faced the Rays three times and allowed just 2 earned runs in 21.1 innings with 17 strikeouts, a 0.84 ERA. That history strongly supports a six-plus inning projection here. His most recent start was also solid at 6.2 IP, 3 ER against Miami.

4) Nick Martinez vs. New York hitters

Martinez’s current 2026 line is 0-0, 2.25 ERA, 0.67 WHIP in 12.0 innings. He has completed six innings in each of his first two starts, including 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 4 K against Minnesota on April 5. The in-window head-to-head sample against the Yankees is very small: only June 23, 2025 qualifies, and that was just 1.0 inning, 0 runs. The older 2024 appearances are outside the allowed date window and are excluded from the model. Martinez gets credit for early-season form, but not enough to close the gap with Fried.

5) Offense vs handedness

The Yankees have been better against right-handed pitching than Tampa Bay has been against left-handed pitching. New York sits at about .718 OPS vs RHP, while Tampa Bay is around .647 OPS vs LHP. Tampa Bay’s last-10 offense is decent on pure batting average at .241, but the split quality against lefties is still below New York’s split quality against righties.

6) Bullpen trend and expected bullpen share

New York’s bullpen trend is a real edge. Over the last 10 games, the Yankees rank 2nd in relief ERA at 2.82. Tampa Bay’s recent pitching has been shakier; the Rays are 23rd in team ERA over the last 10 games at 4.60, and their bullpen had visible recent blow-up spots, including the Minnesota series. Because Fried projects deeper than Martinez, Tampa Bay also projects to need more bullpen outs.

7) Ballpark factor

Tropicana is not being treated as a major scoring inflator here. The indoor environment stabilizes conditions and reduces weather noise, which generally helps projection confidence more than it boosts offense.

8) Travel / return-home flat spot

No flat-spot homecoming deduction applies here. Tampa Bay is not returning home from a road trip on April 11; the Rays were already home on Friday for the series opener against New York. A broader slate review did not surface a clear qualifier in this matchup for “returning home after playing on the road the day before.”

9) Working lineup baseline

Saturday official lineups were not yet posted at the time checked, so the model uses Friday’s official lineup shell as the current roster baseline.
NYY: Goldschmidt, Judge, Bellinger, Stanton, Rosario, Chisholm Jr., Grichuk, Caballero, Wells.
TBR: Simpson, Caminero, Aranda, Díaz, Mullins, DeLuca, Ben Williamson, Walls, Fortes.

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Run model

Team	Base offense	Split adj.	Starter adj.	Bullpen adj.	Park/roof adj.	Home/away adj.	Final
NYY	4.3	+0.3	+0.2	+0.2	0.0	-0.4	4.6
TBR	3.6	-0.2	-0.7	-0.1	0.0	+0.3	2.9

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Projected score box

Segment	NYY	TBR
1st 5 innings	2.7	1.2
Full game	4.6	2.9

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Projected starting pitcher box

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried	6 2/3	1	4	6	2
Nick Martinez	5 1/3	3	6	4	1

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Projected hitter box

Yankees

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Paul Goldschmidt	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Aaron Judge	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
Cody Bellinger	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Giancarlo Stanton	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
Amed Rosario	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Randal Grichuk	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
José Caballero	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Wells	3	1	1	0	0	0	1

Rays

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Chandler Simpson	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Junior Caminero	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jonathan Aranda	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Yandy Díaz	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Cedric Mullins	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Jonny DeLuca	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Williamson	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Taylor Walls	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Nick Fortes	3	0	0	0	0	0	1

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1–30 curve ranks for this matchup

Category	NYY	TBR
Today’s starter, ERA+WHIP curve	4	12
Bullpen last 10 days	2	23
Lineup run production last 10 days	9	15

These are model curve ranks anchored to current-season ERA/WHIP, recent bullpen performance, and last-10 scoring form. The Yankees have 43 runs in their last 10 games and the Rays are 5-5 in their last 10 with a middling recent offensive profile.

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Most likely script: Fried controls the early game.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(963) Chicago White Sox at (964) Kansas City Royals: F5 Total	7:40pm EDT - Apr 10/2026

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CHW at KCR — 4/10/2026 projection:

Projected first 5 innings: KCR 2.7, CHW 1.3

The visible market was roughly KCR -175 / CHW +144 with a total of 8.5. The listed starters were Davis Martin (2-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11.0 IP) and Kris Bubic (1-1, 4.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 11.0 IP). Kauffman weather was described as hitter-friendly in local preview coverage, but the park itself still suppresses home runs relative to many AL parks, so the model treated weather as a mild scoring lift rather than a major total boost.

Model inputs and reasoning

Chicago’s offense remains the main drag on its projection. The White Sox entered 4-8, and preview reporting noted they had been outscored 52-21 in recent road games and ranked near the bottom of MLB in scoring and batting. Their last-10 scoring sample sits at 38 runs, which is better than the road split implies but still not strong enough to erase the broader offensive weakness. Kansas City entered 5-7 and had 45 runs on the season in the ESPN game snapshot, with .233/.321/.362 team hitting in that same snapshot and a .246 average over the last 10 games.

Davis Martin has been good on the surface, but the matchup history inside the allowed window is negative. The current 2026 line is 2-0, 2.45 ERA. In the accessible 2025 matchup versus Kansas City on May 8, 2025, Martin took the loss while allowing 4 runs in 4 1/3 innings as the Royals won 10-0. That game is inside the requested window and is the clearest direct batter-vs-pitcher signal available here. Martin still gets credit for the strong early-2026 form, but the projection trims his expectation against a Royals lineup that has seen him successfully and against a park/opponent profile that is softer than Toronto, his most recent strong outing.

Bubic’s current 2026 line is shakier than Martin’s, but his valid head-to-head sample against Chicago is much stronger. On May 8, 2025, Bubic threw 7 scoreless innings, allowed 6 hits, walked 1, and struck out 7 against the White Sox. The game story also noted that Kansas City completed a four-game sweep and that Bubic lowered his ERA to 1.69 at the time. That direct matchup history, plus the current White Sox offensive issues, pushes Bubic’s run prevention projection ahead of Martin’s despite the weaker current-season ERA.

Bullpen context also favors Kansas City less than the moneyline suggests, but still favors Kansas City overall. The White Sox rank 21st in MLB in team ERA over their last 10 games at 4.60, and preview coverage called their bullpen one of the worst early in the season. Kansas City had enough bullpen stress on April 9 that it made same-day relief moves, specifically adding Eli Morgan and Mitch Spence after heavy use by Luinder Avila and Steven Cruz. That is a real overuse flag for the Royals, so the late-inning run gap is narrower than the starters alone would suggest.

Travel and spot factors are modest here. Kansas City is at home but not in the “returning home from a road game the previous day” bucket. The teams that fit that exact April 10 condition were Detroit and Cincinnati, not Kansas City. Chicago is on the road again, and local preview reporting emphasized how poor the White Sox road performance had been early.

Final model: KCR 4.8, CHW 3.1.

Projected box score

Segment	CHW	KCR	Total
1st 5 innings	1.3	2.7	4.0
Full game	3.1	4.8	7.9

Projected starting pitcher lines

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Davis Martin (CHW)	5 0/3	3	6	5	2
Kris Bubic (KCR)	6 0/3	2	5	6	2

Projected hitter box score

The White Sox expected lineup exposed in the accessible pregame board was Chase Meidroth, Lenyn Sosa, Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Edgar Quero, Tanner Murray, Luisangel Acuña, with the ninth slot truncated in the visible snippet. Chicago also had injuries to Austin Hays and Everson Pereira among others. The Royals’ full expected lineup was not fully exposed in the same snapshot, so the hitter table below uses the current active offensive core visible across the game and season pages.

Chicago White Sox

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Chase Meidroth	4.1	0.3	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.8
Lenyn Sosa	4.0	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.9
Munetaka Murakami	4.0	0.4	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.2	1.1
Miguel Vargas	3.9	0.3	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.9
Colson Montgomery	3.8	0.3	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.1	1.1
Edgar Quero	3.8	0.3	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.7
Tanner Murray	3.7	0.2	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.8
Luisangel Acuña	3.8	0.2	0.8	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.8
9th lineup slot / replacement	3.6	0.2	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.9

Kansas City Royals

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Jonathan India	4.5	0.4	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.8
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	0.3	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.8
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.2	0.4	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.9
Salvador Perez	4.2	0.2	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.9
Maikel Garcia	4.1	0.3	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.7
MJ Melendez / corner OF slot	4.0	0.3	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.1	1.2
Carter Jensen	3.9	0.3	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.1	1.0
Michael Massey / 2B-DH mix	3.9	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.8
Kyle Isbel / OF slot	3.8	0.2	0.7	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.9

Wager & Probability Analysis

Team	Model win %	Fair odds	Consensus odds	Consensus minus fair	Value?
KCR	64.7%	-183	-175	+8 cents	Small value
CHW	35.3%	+183	+144	worse than fair	No value

Full-game total

Model total: 7.9
Consensus total: 8.5.

Bet	Model total	Fair odds	Consensus odds	Edge vs consensus	Value?
Under 8.5	7.9	-128	-120	small positive	Value
Over 8.5	7.9	+128	+100	negative	No value

First 5 innings

A clean public cross-book F5 total was not exposed in the accessible market snapshot, so the model reference numbers are shown directly.

Market	Model	Fair odds / line	Value note
KCR F5 ML	67.6%	-209	playable only if cheaper than about -190
CHW F5 ML	32.4%	+209	no value unless +215 or better appears
F5 total	4.0	fair near 4.0	under lean if market posts 4.5

Team rank chart

1) Today’s starting pitcher — ERA + WHIP curve of 30

Team	Starter	Current profile	30-scale rank
CHW	Davis Martin	2.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP	11
KCR	Kris Bubic	4.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP	16

Martin’s current numbers are better, but the matchup-specific and offensive-context edges still push the game projection toward Kansas City.

2) Bullpen last 10 days

Team	Rank	Snapshot
CHW	21	4.60 ERA
KCR	not cleanly exposed	bullpen stress and roster moves on April 10

3) Lineup run production last 10 days

Team	Rank	Runs last 10
KCR	ahead of CHW	45
CHW	behind KCR	38

Bottom line

• Most likely score: KCR 4.8, CHW 3.1