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Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NHL	(41) Utah Mammoth at (42) Calgary Flames: Moneyline	9:07pm EDT - Apr 12/2026

The PLAY: Utah Mammoth -160

Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites with odds under -250 are 3175-2145 (59.7%; +2.7% ROI). Both teams played last night, as Utah suffered a 4-1 loss to the Hurricanes, while the Flames lost 4-1 to Seattle. However, the fact that Utah is favored in this game is significant because NHL favorites of less than -200 are 1596-1000 (61.5%; +3.5% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 550-319 (63.3%; +7.0% ROI) since the beginning of the 2020-21 season. Then scheduling dynamics are also favorable to Utah because .500 or greater conference road favorites are 401-196 (67.2%; +9.5% ROI) versus .499 or worse opponents playing their third game in four days, including 230-94 (71%; +11.9% ROI) since the beginning of the 2016-17 season. Calgary’s most recent loss came on the road, which is good news for Mammoth investors because .499 or worse unrested underdogs are 655-1210 (35.1%; -10.3% ROI) following a road affair since 2003, including 158-366 (30.2%; -19.1% ROI) since the beginning of the 2020-21 season. The Flames returned home from a grueling six-game road trip last night, and .499 or worse underdogs coming off back-to-back road games are 1462-2345 (38.4%; -5.2% ROI) and -3.3% ROI PL, including 473-865 (35.4%; -9.2% ROI) and -5.7% PL since the beginning of the 2020-21 season. Moreover, NHL underdogs coming off three consecutive road games are 1189-1831 (39.4%; -5.8% ROI) since 2008, while underdogs entering off four straight road affairs are 541-828 (39.5%; -5.8% ROI). Finally, the Mammoth arrive in Calgary looking to avenge a 2-0 loss to the Flames on December 6, which is notable because NHL road favorites of less than -200 with same-season revenge are 1074-645 (62.5%; +9.5% ROI). Take the Utah Mammoth as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, April 12.

DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD

• #1 Handicapper (Units/WP/ROI): 106-72 | +69 Units
• #1 Handicapper (Top Plays): 40-23 (64%)
• #1 Basketball Handicapper (Units): 88-59 (60%)
• #1 NHL Handicapper (ROI): 64% Winners | +18%
• #1 NBA Handicapper (ROI): 26-16 (63%) | +25.3%

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NBA	(555) Sacramento Kings at (556) Portland Trail Blazers: Spread	8:40pm EDT - Apr 12/2026

The PLAY: Portland Trail Blazers -16.5 (-110)

Since 2013, large NBA home favorites are 627-519-18 ATS (55%), while .649 or worse favorites of -15 or greater are 77-51-1 ATS (60.2%) since 2008, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.0 points per game. Sacramento arrives off a shocking 124-118 upset win over the Warriors as 11-point underdogs, which is significant because 300-or-worse double-digit underdogs coming off an upset win are 111-144-5 ATS (43.5%) since 2008. Portland is coming off an impressive 116-97 win over the Clippers on Friday, and large NBA underdogs like the Kings are 168-217-5 ATS (43.6%) versus opponents that have pulled down 13 or more offensive rebounds in their last game. This situation is 77-119-1 ATS (39.3%) since the beginning of the 2018-19 season. From a technical standpoint, Portland falls into one of my most profitable systems: Play On: Large NBA favorites with an average season point spread of worse than -1.91. This situation is 185-124 ATS (59.9%) since 2005 and contains a 158-96 ATS (62.2%) subset angle that is 109-57-1 (65.7%) since 2018. Lay the number with the Portland Trail Blazers as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, April 12.

Playoff Implications

• A Portland win on Sunday secures the 8-seed. Sacramento has gone 8-9 straight-up over the past two weeks, causing the Kings to fall out of the top three in the lottery.

DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD

• #1 Handicapper (Units/WP/ROI): 106-72 | +69 Units
• #1 Handicapper (Top Plays): 40-23 (64%)
• #1 Basketball Handicapper (Units): 88-59 (60%)
• #1 NHL Handicapper (ROI): 64% Winners | +18%
• #1 NBA Handicapper (ROI): 26-16 (63%) | +25.3%

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NBA	(533) Atlanta Hawks at (534) Miami Heat: Spread	6:10pm EDT - Apr 12/2026

The PLAY: Atlanta Hawks -2.0 (-106)

Since 2009, certain NBA road favorites with win percentages of .559 or worse are 739-542-29 ATS (57.7%) after the All-Star break, including 248-147-6 ATS (62.8%) from the beginning of the 2020-21 season. Atlanta is coming off a 124-102 win over the Cavaliers, snapping a two-game losing streak. Since 2000, NBA road favorites arriving off a win that ended a losing streak are 466-364-13 ATS (56.1%). This situation features a profitable 225-171-7 ATS (56.8%) subset angle dating back to 1989, involving NBA road favorites coming off a win that snapped a two-plus-game losing streak. Miami returned home from a 140-117 win over the perpetually tanking Wizards, which is significant because home underdogs entering off a game in which they led by 20 or more points at the half are 82-131-1 ATS (38.5%) since 1990, including 60-112-1 ATS (34.9%) when owning a .559 or worse win percentage. Finally, Atlanta falls into a profitable 1349-1039-42 ATS (56.5%) NBA Road Favorite system of mine that dates to 2001 and invests on certain road favorites. Lay the points with the Atlanta Hawks as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, April 12.

Playoff Implications

• Atlanta clinched the Southeast Division on Friday and secures the 5-seed if it beats Miami on Sunday. The Hawks can also lock down the 5-seed with a loss if Toronto loses, or Orlando beats the Celtics.

• Miami is most likely going to be the 10th seed, requiring two road wins to reach the playoffs