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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (901) Chicago Cubs at (902) Philadelphia Phillies: F5 Team Total | 6:40pm EDT - Apr 13/2026 |
The PLAY: F5 Chicago Cubs Total Over 1.5 (-101) Action
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CHC at PHI —
Chicago arrives after a Sunday home game against Pittsburgh and a prior 11-inning game on April 11, so a small travel/fatigue deduction was applied to the Cubs’ bats. Philadelphia is already settled into a home stand; this is not a same-day return-home flat spot off the road, so no special homecoming penalty was applied to the Phillies.
Cristopher Sánchez brings the stronger current skill base: 1.65 ERA, 23 strikeouts, and 4 walks in 16.1 innings this season, after a 2.50 ERA season in 2025 and a dominant 1.94 home ERA in 2025. His 2026 split has been much better by day than by night, but the larger 2025-26 body of work still grades him clearly above average here. Javier Assad has only 5.2 MLB innings in 2026, all scoreless, after a much smaller 2025 MLB sample, so the raw 0.00 ERA was regressed heavily; the working expectation is closer to a mid-3s true-talent run-prevention line over about five-plus innings than to his current zero.
Citizens Bank Park remains a slightly offense-leaning run environment in the recent park-factor tables, and the mild wind-out setup prevented the total from drifting lower. J.T. Realmuto’s day-to-day foot issue slightly trims the Phillies’ offensive projection, while the Cubs’ expected order still shows Matt Shaw in the lineup after Michael Busch sat Sunday.
Run model
Team | Baseline runs | Key adjustments | Final projected runs |
|---|---|---|---|
CHC | 4.1 | road/travel -0.2, recent vs LHP -0.2, Sánchez home/skill -0.4, park/weather +0.2, Phillies bullpen +0.1 | 3.6 |
PHI | 4.0 | home +0.1, vs RHP +0.2, Assad regression +0.2, Cubs bullpen -0.2, Realmuto health -0.1, park/weather +0.1, no-bottom-9 -0.0 to -0.1 | 4.3 |
Projected score
Segment | CHC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
First 5 innings | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Full game | 3.6 | 4.3 |
Projected winner: Philadelphia
Starting pitcher boxscore projection
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javier Assad (CHC) | 5 1/3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) | 6 1/3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
Projected hitter boxscore
Expected batting orders are based on the listed Monday lineups.
Chicago hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nico Hoerner | 4.5 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
Alex Bregman | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
Seiya Suzuki | 4.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
Carson Kelly | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
Ian Happ | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Dansby Swanson | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Matt Shaw | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Miguel Amaya | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Philadelphia hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trea Turner | 4.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Kyle Schwarber | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
Bryce Harper | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
Brandon Marsh | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Bryson Stott | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Adolis Garcia | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
J.T. Realmuto | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
Alec Bohm | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
Justin Crawford | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
30-point curve board
Category | CHC | PHI | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher ERA+WHIP curve (current season, sample-adjusted) | 23/30 Assad | 22/30 Sánchez | CHC raw rate edge, PHI larger sample |
Bullpen form last 10 days (ERA + WHIP composite) | 3.82 (2.73 ERA + 1.09 WHIP) | 4.35 (3.17 ERA + 1.18 WHIP) | CHC |
Lineup production last 10 days (runs + estimated wOBA input) | 35 runs / ~.284 wOBA | 36 runs / ~.314 wOBA | PHI |