David Hess has a strong MLB total lined up for this evening, and the matchup gives him exactly the kind of edge he loves to attack. The numbers point to value, the read is clean, and the window won’t stay open long. Even better — tonight’s play is just $7.00. This one deserves a spot on your card.
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) Washington Nationals: Total | 6:45pm EDT - Jun 25/2026 |
The PLAY: Total Over 8.5 (-110) Action
The Over 8.5 is the right side because Nationals Park has been one of the most explosive run environments in baseball all season, and this matchup brings two vulnerable pitching profiles into a park that punishes mistakes. Washington home games are averaging 11.32 runs per game, and the Nationals themselves put up 5.39 per game here. Philadelphia hasn’t been a strong road offense overall at 3.92 per game, but they’ve erupted for 19 runs in the first two games of this series and now get Schwarber back in the lineup. Christopher Sánchez has been excellent at home, but his road ERA jumps to 3.23, and he’s been far less effective in this park with a 4.73 ERA in three career appearances at Nationals Park. Cade Cavalli’s surface ERA at home looks fine at 3.73, but his home starts have averaged 10.75 runs because the Washington bullpen behind him has been a mess — a 5.30 ERA at home and 5.57 over its last 10 games. Philadelphia’s bullpen hasn’t been sharp either with a 5.03 ERA over its last five. These teams have already played six times this year and those games have averaged 11.33 runs. With two lineups in good form, two bullpens leaking, and a park that consistently inflates scoring, the Over 8.5 remains the stronger play.