Free Major League Baseball Predictions for May 7

Oskeim Sports

Event: (901) Cincinnati Reds at (902) Chicago Cubs: Spread

Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: May 7, 2026 2:20 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (105) Rhett Lowder (RHP), Shota Imanaga (LHP) Must Start

Cincinnati, which has lost a season-high six straight, falls into several underperforming systems developed since 2002 that target moderate-to-large road underdogs.  Specifically, the Reds fall within 3006-5321 SU (36.1%; -4.0% ROI) and 2561-4571 (35.9%; -4.4% ROI) situations that have consistently underperformed the market over the last 23 years.  Since 2009, MLB favorites of -194 or greater are 2367-938 (71.6%; +2.4% ROI) in games with totals of greater than eight runs, winning by an average margin of 2.1 runs per game.  Chicago southpaw Shota Imanaga enters off an outing in which he threw seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits and finishing with a 4/1 K/BB ratio.  Since 2004, large MLB favorites with starting pitchers who posted a 1.08 WHIP or better in their most recent outing are 651-252 (72.1%; +3.5% ROI), provided one additional parameter is met.  These teams have gone 351-126 (73.6%; +5% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of 2.2 runs per game.  Finally, Cincinnati right-hander Rhett Lowder toes the rubber off 17-7 and 8-3 losses in his last two starts, which is significant because certain MLB road underdogs with a starting pitcher off consecutive losses are 398-756 (34.5%; -7.8% ROI), losing by an average of 1.3 runs per game. Take the Chicago Cubs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, May 7.

Quick Hits

·      Reds (L/10 games): 2-8, .232 batting average, 6.77 ERA

·      Cubs (L/10 games): 8-2, .234 batting average, 4.00 ERA

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Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Dionne D'Amico

Event: (901) Cincinnati Reds at (902) Chicago Cubs: Moneyline

Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: May 7, 2026 2:20 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Chicago Cubs -190 Rhett Lowder (RHP), Shota Imanaga (LHP) Must Start

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FREE WINNER: Chicago Cubs on the money line

Chicago is one of the hottest teams in MLB, riding an eight-game winning streak, which does include the first three games of this series, and carries a dominant 14-game home winning streak at Wrigley Field. Cincinnati on the other hand, has now lost six straight games. Today the Cubs send Shota Imanaga to the mound who is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA. In his last outing, the LH tossed seven shutout innings with five strikeouts in a 2-0 home win over the Diamondbacks. In three career starts against Cincinnati, he is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA. And when he’s at home, Imanaga is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA. The Reds will counter with Rhett Lowder who is 3-2 with a 5.09 ERA. Over his L3 starts, he’s 1-1 with a whopping 8.03 ERA. And when he hits the road, Lowder is 2-2 with a 6.27 ERA. Like I said earlier, Chicago comes in here with momentum, and will continue their win streak. The Cubs sweep the Reds today with Imanaga on the mound. Play Chicago.

Released/revised 6 minute(s) ago

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Joe Duffy

Event: (907) Texas Rangers at (908) New York Yankees: Moneyline

Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: May 7, 2026 12:35 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Texas Rangers 136 Action

 Rangers-Yankees Public betting and odds report!

Opener:
Yankees -186
Rangers +156

Best lines:
Yankees -135
Rangers +135

Best totals:
Over 8.5 -115
Under 8.5 +115

Splits on side:
86% of bets on Yankees
80% of money on Yankees

Splits on total:
83% of bets on Over
85% of money on Over

Fade home teams with great run margins is up 78.52 units.  Short road underdogs with losing record versus opponent with winning percentage above .600 is up 144.31 units and 9.5 ROI. Fade quality home teams that are off a loss is up 17 ROI.

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Released/revised 36 minute(s) ago

Ben Burns

Event: (915) Baltimore Orioles at (916) Miami Marlins: Moneyline

Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: May 7, 2026 6:40 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Miami Marlins -124 Cade Povich (LHP), Max Meyer (RHP) Must Start

The Orioles have taken the first two games of this series but the Marlins should have a strong shot at avoiding the sweep. Max Meyer is 2-0 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. At home, his WHIP dips to 0.94. Over his past two starts, he's thrown 12 shutout innings, allowing five total hits. On the other hand, Baltmore's Cade Povich allowed five earned runs, on seven hits, in just four innings of his last start. He's 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.66 WHIP on the road. He's also now 7-18 with a 5.14 ERA for his career. Let's go with Meyer and the Marlins. *good to -135

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Jimmy Adams

Event: (905) St. Louis Cardinals at (906) San Diego Padres

Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: May 7, 2026 10:10 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: San Diego Padres -1 (-125) Action

The Padres enter Thursday winners of 3 of 4 and have scored 15 runs over their past 2 games. That includes a 10 spot in San Francisco, one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. Now the Friars return home and will send Michael King to the mound for their opener against St. Louis. King has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of his past 5 starts and ranks in the 91^st percentile in off-speed run value. Matthew Liberatore has terrible metrics and the Cardinals have the 4^th worst bullpen in terms of ERA. Take the Padres -1.

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Marc David

Event: (903) Pittsburgh Pirates at (904) Arizona Diamondbacks: Total

Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: May 7, 2026 3:40 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Total Over 9.0 (-105) Action

Marc David Sports' Free Pick

We really like the over in this matchup.  Pittsburgh just cashed a win with only one run scored on Wednesday, and both teams have been blanked once in this series, but Thursday lines up for more runs. The last time the Diamondbacks were shut out, they responded with a 12 run game (8-4 loss), and this feels like another spot where their bats can bounce back in a hurry. We also think they can get to Mitch Keller (3–1, 2.85), whose recent outings have trended higher scoring, and Arizona hands the ball to Zac Gallen (1–2, 4.45), who was tagged for 6 ER on 7 H and 3 BB over 4.2 IP last time out.

Value to Over 9 -120.

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Tokyo Brandon

Event: (907) Texas Rangers at (908) New York Yankees: Total

Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: May 7, 2026 12:35 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Total Over 8.0 (-115) Action

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TEX @ NYY

Projected Score

Main Projection Read

NYY’s offense gets the higher base because it entered the game with a much stronger season profile: .787 OPS, 200 runs, 61 HR, while TEX sat at .691 OPS, 137 runs, 33 HR. NYY also has the better full-season pitching profile, but the Blackburn spot-start creates early-game volatility because he had only 14.0 innings listed and was moving from bullpen/swingman usage into the start.

Gore’s matchup risk is real: current NYY hitters owned a combined .279/.353/.541/.894 line against him, including major power damage from Aaron Judge. Blackburn’s BvP risk is even louder in a smaller sample, with current TEX hitters at .400/.419/.833/1.253 against him. That pushes the model toward early scoring rather than a clean pitcher’s duel.

Weather is cool and mostly cloudy around first pitch, which trims carry slightly, but Yankee Stadium’s recent HR-friendly profile and the NYY power shape offset much of that deduction. TEX also takes a small road/early-day-game fatigue haircut, while NYY does not get the “returning home off road trip” deduction because this is already the back end of the homestand, not the first home game back.

Bullpen edge is mixed. TEX has the better season bullpen shape, while NYY’s full bullpen has been strong recently but becomes more exposed because Blackburn is unlikely to give normal starter length. NYY’s available bullpen profile was materially weaker than the full bullpen profile, which adds late TEX run expectancy.

Tokyo’s Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs

1-30 Rank Snapshot

Final Projection

Projected final: NYY 5.0, TEX 4.4.
Projected 1st 5: NYY 2.8, TEX 2.6.

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

Mike Lundin

Event: (919) New York Mets at (920) Colorado Rockies: Total

Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: May 7, 2026 3:10 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Total Over 10.5 (-120) Action

Mets vs Rockies MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Wednesday’s matchup at Coors Field produced 15 total runs, and I expect the ball to carry again in Thursday’s rematch. Mets right‑hander Christian Scott (0‑0, 4.26 ERA) has just 11 big‑league starts under his belt and is still finding his footing. In his two outings this season, he’s allowed three earned runs on only three hits but has issued five walks, a dangerous combo at altitude. Pitching at Coors can be tricky even for veterans, and left‑hander Jose Quintana (0‑1, 5.40 ERA at Coors this year, is now learning that first‑hand with Colorado.

With a hitter‑friendly environment, a green arm in Scott, and a vulnerable Quintana, the setup strongly favors another high‑scoring affair.

The Bet: OVER (3%). 

Bet to: Over 11 -110

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

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