Bryan Leonard
Event: MLB Season Win Total
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: March 26, 2026 3:00 AM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Cleveland Guardians Under 79.5 Wins
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS SEASON WINS
Growing up in Cleveland we have always been a fan of our local baseball team. Since a child we have watched every Indians/Guardians game on a regular basis. Despite the ownership never really putting big money into the team, the program has had a pretty good product. They have overachieved for quite some time despite having one of the lowest payrolls in Major League Baseball. That was all fine when money ball was all the rage, as Cleveland needed to be at the forefront in order to keep up with the opposition. This organization was one of the first to sign young players to long term contracts.
But those days are gone, as even the most wealthy owners are now willing to play the same game as the Indians/Guardians, Twins and Rays. That is the problem for those type of clubs now, and fans of those teams should be prepared for a tough few years. Payroll for these type of clubs have stagnated over the years, and as of now it's becoming harder and harder to compete. For example, based on the cost of living, Cleveland's payroll is less now than in was twenty years ago.
The club has done a great job of finding bullpen arms that nobody else wanted, and that's once again the strength of this team. But the starting pitching staff is led by a couple of #3 type starters and a group of unproven talent. The batting order has two legit proven players in their prime, along with a lot of unproven or failed major league bats. The brass didn't bring in anyone that can move the needle in free agency.
With the Tigers, Royals and White Sox all improving in the off season, the Guardians will battle with the Twins for last place in this division. No way they are a .500 team with this group of players.
PLAY UNDER 79.5
Released/revised 6 day(s) ago
Tokyo Brandon
Event: (987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: March 25, 2026 8:05 PM EDT
Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: New York Yankees -120
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_______
Offense baseline
Yankees: 5.24 R/G
Giants: 4.35 R/G
League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51
Offense index (approx):
NYY: 1.194
SFG: 0.991
Starters
Max Fried (NYY, LHP)
2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90
2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)
2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA
2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA
batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)
Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)
Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)
Projected lineups
Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells
Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey
1) Starter expected innings (March workload)
Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:
Webb: 5.0 IP
Fried: 5.1 IP
2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter
Fried context RA9
Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09
Small March bump = 3.24
H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65
Webb context RA9
Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23
Tiny March bump: = 3.29
H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68
3) Park/weather/travel adjustments
Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.
Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)
4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)
Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)
Projection results
Full game projected score
NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2
Projected total: 7.2
1st 5 innings projected score
NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8
1st5 projected total: 4.0
Starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Fried (NYY) | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
Logan Webb (SFG) | 5.0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Hitter boxscore projection
NYY hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trent Grisham | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Aaron Judge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Cody Bellinger | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ben Rice | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ryan McMahon | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
José Caballero | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Austin Wells | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
SFG hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heliot Ramos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Rafael Devers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Willy Adames | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matt Chapman | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jung Hoo Lee | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Harrison Bader | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Bryce Eldridge | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Casey Schmitt | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Patrick Bailey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wager & Probability Analysis
Moneyline value vs book
Team | Model win% | Fair ML | Book ML | Book implied% | Edge (Model–Book) | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NYY | 62.1% | -164 | -115 | 53.5% | +8.6% | +VALUE |
SFG | 37.9% | +164 | +105 | 48.8% | -10.9% | -VALUE |
Totals value (Full game O/U 7)
Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).
Market | Model proj | Model win% | Fair odds | Book odds | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 51.1% (no-push) | -105 | -110 | -1.2% | -VALUE |
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 48.9% (no-push) | +105 | -110 | -3.5% | -VALUE |
Totals value (1st 5 innings)
I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.
Market | Model proj (1st5) | Model win% | Fair odds | Assumed book | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st5 Over 3.5 | 4.0 | 56.5% | -130 | -110 | +4.1% | +VALUE |
1st5 Under 3.5 | 4.0 | 43.5% | +130 | -110 | -8.9% | -VALUE |
Pros for Yankees -120
Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.
Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.
Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.
Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.
7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.
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