Free NCAA Mens Baseball Predictions for February 17

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (3749) Florida at (3750) Stetson: Moneyline

Sport/League: NCAABB

Date/Time: February 17, 2026 6:30 PM EST

Free NCAA Mens Baseball Pick Today: Florida -250

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Florida Gators at Stetson Hatters — 02/17

What I’m weighting (pitching, bats, pen)

• Starting pitcher form (edge: Florida): Florida is slated to start RHP Billy Barlow, who—despite a mediocre overall 2025 line—was nasty in midweek starts (0.59 ERA, 15 K / 4 BB in 15 1/3 IP) and already threw 4 IP, 1 ER at Stetson last year.
  Stetson is slated to start RHP Zane Coppersmith, who worked mostly in relief and posted a 6.67 ERA in 2025 (and only one start). That usually signals shorter leash + earlier bullpen exposure.

• Bullpen skill / control (edge: Florida): Florida’s staff is described as returning a big chunk of innings and opened 2026 with multiple scoreless/debut relief gems.
  Stetson through 3 games: 6.92 staff ERA with 16 BB and 16 K in 26 IP (control issues = free baserunners).

• Batter form + defense (edge: Florida): Florida’s offense came out hot (fast starts, lots of extra-base damage).
  Stetson so far: .268/.381/.351, 0 HR, plus 8 errors (.931 fielding).

Win probability & fair odds (my projection)

• Florida win probability: 76%

• Stetson win probability: 24%

Fair American odds (from my win%):

• Florida -317

• Stetson +317

Book odds vs my odds + value

Book moneylines:

• Florida -250 (implied 71.43%)

• Stetson +190 (implied 34.48%)

*EV assumes my win% is correct. For -250, a $100 stake wins $40 profit; for +190, a $100 stake wins $190 profit.

Bet value call: Florida -250 shows positive value versus my fair line (you’re paying less juice than my model says is “fair”). Stetson +190 is a pass/fade at that price.

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

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Tokyo Brandon stands as one of WagerTalk's most elite and consistent performers — the #1 all-sports profit leader in 3 of the last 5 years among 33 top handicappers. His rock-solid, year-over-year track record proves he's no flash in the pan:2025: #4 All-Sports Profit (+49 units)2024: #1 All-Sports Profit (+180 units)2022: #1 All-Sports ...