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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Total Under 181.5 (-110)

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Brisbane Bullets at Perth Wildcats

DK line: Perth -20.5 | Total 181.5

Season profile:

• Perth: 91.1 scored / 86.3 allowed (net +4.8). Home record 8–7 (interestingly not ultra-dominant at home).

• Brisbane: 81.3 scored / 101.2 allowed (net -19.9). Away record 4–12.

Last 10:

• Perth last 10: 8–2, about 96.1 scored / 86.4 allowed.

• Brisbane last 10: 0–10, about 75.2 scored / 97.8 allowed (that’s not “slumping,” that’s “astronomical impact crater”).

Injuries notes (big factor here):

• Brisbane: Casey Prather (knee, season), Javon Freeman-Liberty (hamstring, season), Lamar Patterson (hamstring, season), plus Dakota Mathias (shoulder, Feb) and others TBC.

• Perth: David Duke Jr. (elbow, TBC), Jaron Rillie (hamstring, TBC), Sunday Dech (illness, TBC).

Projection:

• Perth 97 – Brisbane 80 (Total 177)

• Spread is enormous for a 40-minute game, but Brisbane’s offense + injuries scream “team total collapse risk,” which matters most for the total.

Last 10 + home/away pattern (this is the engine)

Brisbane last 10:

• 0–10, scoring about 75.1 ppg, conceding about 98.3 ppg (from the listed last-10 results).
  Brisbane last 10 (away only):

• Away totals average about 171.8.

Perth last 10:

• Very strong form; totals average about 182.5 overall.
  Perth last 10 (home only):

• Home totals average about 175.4.

So your total is 181.5, while:

• Brisbane’s away environment lately ≈ low 170s

• Perth’s home environment lately ≈ mid 170s

Head-to-head this season

Three meetings:

• 203 total (Brisbane win @Perth early)

• 148 total (Perth 86–62)

• 170 total (Perth 95–75)

Two most recent are comfortably under, and Brisbane’s scoring in those is 62 and 75.

Injuries (this strengthens the Under case)

Official league injury list has Brisbane missing multiple pieces and also lists Tyrell Harrison (concussion – TBC), while Perth has a few “TBC” tags too.
Brisbane also officially ruled Javon Freeman-Liberty out for the season.

The PLAY: Alabama -7.5 (-110)

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Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers over the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Ole Miss Rebels

Since 1/1/26 (SEC games)

Score prediction + line breakdown

Projected score: Alabama 87 – Ole Miss 78 (total 165)

Total 165.5 (U -108 / O -112):

• My projection lands 0.5 points below the number (165 vs 165.5), so it’s a thin under lean.

• Alabama’s SEC slate has been a track meet (88.3 scored / 85.7 allowed). Ole Miss’ SEC offense is much lower (72.9), which is the main “brake pedal” on the total.

Spread Alabama -7.5 (-112):

• Projection margin Alabama by 9, so it clears -7.5.

• Ole Miss has struggled to score efficiently in SEC play (72.9 ppg) and has a negative scoring margin in that span.

Trends / patterns:

Results & scoring margin

• Alabama: 6–4, scoring margin +2.6 (883–857)

• Ole Miss: 3–7, scoring margin -6.6 (729–795)

ATS (since 1/1/26)

• Alabama ATS: 4–6

  • Home ATS: 2–3 | Away ATS: 2–3 (from game list)

• Ole Miss ATS: 6–4

  • Home ATS: 2–1 | Away ATS: 4–3 (from game list)

Home/away form (SEC games)

• Alabama: Home 3–2, Away 3–2

• Ole Miss: Home 1–2, Away 2–5

Why I am betting Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5

• Ole Miss is trending the wrong way in this exact moment: they’re on a 0–5 skid in their last five, including losses by 18 (at Tennessee) and 11 (at Texas)—the kind of recent form that makes a “win by 8+” ask feel realistic.

• Alabama’s ceiling is “blow-the-doors-off” offense: they just won 100–97 vs Texas A&M and 96–92 at Auburn, which matters because covering -7.5 often comes from being able to turn a close game into a 2–3 possession separation late.

• Conference gap: Alabama is 6–4 in the Southeastern Conference, Ole Miss is 3–7—not perfect, but it’s a signal that Ole Miss has been consistently below the league’s top half while Alabama has held serve.

• Injury situation isn’t screaming “trap”: Alabama has Latrell Wrightsell Jr. listed probable and their other outs are longer-term depth pieces—so you’re not betting into a surprise “main engine is out” scenario.

• Game context favors separation: this is in Oxford (road spot), but Alabama already showed it can win a hostile environment at Auburn; that makes “win by margin” less fragile than it would be for a team that only cashes at home.

Player matchup breakdowns

Alabama’s offense in SEC play is built around Philon’s high-volume creation (21.1 ppg, 4.1 apg) plus Holloway as a second scorer (16.6 ppg), and they’ve kept the overall scoring environment loud (88.3 scored / 85.7 allowed). Against Ole Miss, the key question is whether Kamardine can disrupt the first action and keep Philon out of the paint—because if Alabama turns the corner cleanly, they generate either rim attempts or kick-out rhythm jumpers, which is how games get pushed toward the 160s.

Ole Miss’ SEC scoring is much more “one primary, then committee”: Storr leads at 16.6, then you’re hunting Pinkins/Dia/Kamardine to stack efficient possessions. The uphill part is that Ole Miss is also getting outscored in SEC play (72.9–79.5) and is negative on the glass versus opponents (rebounding margin is rough), so empty trips (miss + give up defensive board) can snowball fast against a team that’s comfortable playing in the high 80s.