Chalk up another winner after Villanova and DePaul stayed under the number last night, pushing David Hess to 9–3 in his last 12 here at SportsMemo. He’s locked in again tonight with a totals play that jumped off the board during his breakdown. The matchup fits, the number is right, and he’s ready to keep this run rolling.
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CBB | (797) Indiana State at (798) Valparaiso: Total | 7:00pm EST - Mar 5/2026 |
The PLAY: Total Under 138.5 (-110)
Indiana State–Valparaiso Under 138.5 makes sense because this matchup consistently produces slower, half‑court basketball, and the MVC Tournament historically tightens games even further. Indiana State scores 73.2 ppg in league play but also allows 78.1, and a big part of that is pace—they’re not a transition-heavy team, and their possessions tend to stretch deep into the clock. Valparaiso plays even more methodically, averaging 71.4 ppg in conference games on 42.8% shooting, and their offense rarely pushes tempo unless forced. The first meeting this season finished 76–75 (151 points) but that was an outlier shooting performance for both sides, with each team hitting over 52% from the field according to ESPN’s box score . Over a larger sample, MVC Tournament games with totals 131.5 or higher have gone Under 46–22 the last decade, and this matchup fits that profile: Indiana State’s defense is vulnerable inside but Valpo doesn’t have the firepower to exploit it consistently, and both teams rank bottom‑half of the league in offensive rebounding, which limits second‑chance scoring. With two deliberate offenses, a tournament environment that historically suppresses scoring, and a matchup that trends lower when shooting normalizes, Under 138.5 is the stronger side.