Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline	8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026

The PLAY: New York Yankees -120

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#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Offense baseline

• Yankees: 5.24 R/G

• Giants: 4.35 R/G

• League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51

  • Offense index (approx):

    • NYY: 1.194

    • SFG: 0.991

Starters

Max Fried (NYY, LHP)

• 2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90

• 2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

• 2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA

• 2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA

  batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)

• Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)

• Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)

Projected lineups

• Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells

• Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey

---

1) Starter expected innings (March workload)

Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:

• Webb: 5.0 IP

• Fried: 5.1 IP

2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter

Fried context RA9

• Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09

• Small March bump = 3.24

• H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65

Webb context RA9

• Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23

• Tiny March bump: = 3.29

• H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68

3) Park/weather/travel adjustments

• Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.

• Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)

4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)

Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)

---

Projection results

Full game projected score

• NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2

• Projected total: 7.2

1st 5 innings projected score

• NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8

• 1st5 projected total: 4.0

---

Starting pitcher boxscore

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried (NYY)	5.1	2	4	6	2
Logan Webb (SFG)	5.0	2	5	5	1

---

Hitter boxscore projection

NYY hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Trent Grisham	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
Aaron Judge	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Cody Bellinger	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Rice	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Giancarlo Stanton	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Ryan McMahon	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
José Caballero	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Wells	4	0	1	0	0	0	1

SFG hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Heliot Ramos	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
Willy Adames	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Matt Chapman	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Harrison Bader	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Bryce Eldridge	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0

---

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline value vs book

Team	Model win%	Fair ML	Book ML	Book implied%	Edge (Model–Book)	Value?
NYY	62.1%	-164	-115	53.5%	+8.6%	+VALUE
SFG	37.9%	+164	+105	48.8%	-10.9%	-VALUE

Totals value (Full game O/U 7)

Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).

Market	Model proj	Model win%	Fair odds	Book odds	Edge	Value?
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push)	7.2	51.1% (no-push)	-105	-110	-1.2%	-VALUE
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push)	7.2	48.9% (no-push)	+105	-110	-3.5%	-VALUE

Totals value (1st 5 innings)

I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.

Market	Model proj (1st5)	Model win%	Fair odds	Assumed book	Edge	Value?
1st5 Over 3.5	4.0	56.5%	-130	-110	+4.1%	+VALUE
1st5 Under 3.5	4.0	43.5%	+130	-110	-8.9%	-VALUE

---

Pros for Yankees -120

• Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.

• Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.

• Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.

• Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.

• 7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
BSB	(308911) Netherlands at (308912) Venezuela: Spread	12:00pm EST - Mar 6/2026

The PLAY: Venezuela -1.5 (-213)

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Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Netherlands at Venezuela

Projected starting pitchers

• Netherlands: Lars Huijer

• Venezuela: Ranger Suárez

Starting pitcher comparison

Ranger Suárez (Venezuela) — LHP

• Clear ace for Venezuela’s pool play plan.

• WBC role expectation: ~4–5 innings, then turn it over (pitch-count/early-tourney management).

Lars Huijer (Netherlands) — RHP

• Netherlands’ projected Game 1 starter; strong reputation in Dutch league context, but this is a massive jump in lineup quality.

• WBC role expectation: ~3–4 innings if effective; shorter leash if Venezuela squares him early.

Starter edge: Venezuela big, mostly because Suárez is a proven top-end arm and Huijer is stepping into a lineup full of MLB thump.

Bullpen comparison

Venezuela bullpen

• Even with rotation questions beyond Suárez, Venezuela’s late-inning arms are widely viewed as a strength.

Netherlands bullpen

• Having Kenley Jansen as an anchor helps, but the issue is the bridge (5th–7th) vs elite bats.

Bullpen edge: Venezuela, mainly depth and matchup quality.

Projected final

Venezuela 6 — Netherlands 3 (Total 9)

Netherlands projected lineup (1–9)

1. Ozzie Albies

2. Jurickson Profar

3. Xander Bogaerts

4. Ceddanne Rafaela

5. Didi Gregorius

6. Druw Jones

7. Chadwick Tromp

8. Juremi Profar

9. Sharlon Schoop

Venezuela projected lineup (1–9)

1. Ronald Acuña Jr.

2. Luis Arraez

3. Jackson Chourio

4. Salvador Pérez

5. Wilyer Abreu

6. Eugenio Suárez

7. Andrés Giménez

8. William Contreras

9. Gleyber Torres

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
BSB	(308907) Japan at (308908) Chinese Taipei: Spread	5:00am EST - Mar 6/2026

The PLAY: Japan -1.5 (-206)

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Japan (Yoshinobu Yamamoto) at Chinese Taipei (Hao-Chun Cheng) — 3/6 WBC projection

1) Starting pitcher comparison (SP vs SP)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Japan)

• 2025 MLB line: 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 201 K in 173.2 IP.

• Translation to WBC context: elite command + swing-and-miss plays even better with WBC aggression (hitters tend to ambush early; Yamamoto’s strike-throwing punishes that).

Hao-Chun Cheng (Chinese Taipei)

• He’s been primarily a CPBL/minors type arm rather than an MLB-established ace. Strong CPBL season (e.g., 3.02 ERA in 2023) and describes him as having pitched in CPBL/minors.

• Translation to WBC context: the challenge isn’t “is he competent?”—it’s “can he survive a lineup stacked with MLB/NPB stars multiple times through?” Against Japan, most pitchers can’t.

SP edge (runs)

• Expected innings (typical WBC usage): Yamamoto ~4–5 IP, Cheng ~3–4 IP (shorter leash vs an elite offense).

• Expected runs allowed (starter portion):

  • Yamamoto: 0.6–1.0 runs

  • Cheng: 2.0–3.0 runs

2) Bullpen comparison (depth + run prevention)

Japan bullpen (and overall pitching depth)

• Japan’s staff includes MLB/upper-tier arms like Yuki Matsui (Padres) plus a pile of high-end NPB pitchers (Kikuchi, Sugano, Miyagi, etc.).

• Practical effect: Japan can throw quality looks for 9 innings without “running out of bullets.”

Chinese Taipei bullpen

• Their staff is more CPBL/minors/NPB-mix, with relievers listed such as Jyun-Yue Tseng, Kuan-Yu Chen, Lin Shih-Hsiang, Tzu-Chen Sha, Yi-Lei Sun, etc.

• That can absolutely work in WBC… until you face the deepest lineup in the pool and you’re forced into your 4th/5th best matchup.

Bullpen edge (runs)

• Expected bullpen runs allowed:

  • Japan pen (4–5 IP): ~0.8–1.4 runs

  • Chinese Taipei pen (5–6 IP): ~3.0–4.5 runs

3) Batter form / matchup notes

Projected lineups floating around have Japan rolling out monsters like Ohtani, Murakami, Suzuki, Yoshida, Okamoto, etc., while Chinese Taipei’s offense leans heavily on Yu Chang and top CPBL bats plus a few MLB-affiliated pieces.

Projected final

Japan 6 — Chinese Taipei 2

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(927) Cleveland Guardians at (928) Chicago White Sox: Moneyline	8:05pm EST - Mar 5/2026

The PLAY: Cleveland Guardians -113

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Game context (Spring Training)

• Matchup / venue: Guardians @ White Sox — Camelback Ranch (Glendale, AZ)

• Probable starters: Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Sean Burke (CHW)

• Weather (around first pitch): clear / mostly clear, low–mid 70s °F with dry desert air (pretty normal “ball carries a bit” conditions).

1) Spring offense (so far in 2026 spring)

• CLE: 67 runs in 13 games → 5.15 R/G

• CHW: 65 runs in 13 games → 5.00 R/G

Offense index vs the two-team average ( (5.15+5.00)/2 = 5.07 ):

• CLE offense idx: 5.15 / 5.07 = 1.016

• CHW offense idx: 5.00 / 5.07 = 0.986

2) Pitching quality anchor

Bullpens matter a lot in spring because the back 5–6 innings are often “who has more usable arms + AAA depth.”

• CLE bullpen: 3.44

• CHW bullpen: 4.16

So I’m projecting:

• Bibee ~3.0 IP, then CLE bullpen ~6.0 IP

• Burke ~3.0 IP, then CHW bullpen ~6.0 IP

Full-game mean score: CLE 4.8 – CHW 4.5 (Total 9.3)

Primary edge in the math: Cleveland’s bullpen run prevention (3.44) vs Chicago’s 4.16, which matters extra in spring when half the game is relievers and call-ups.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(923) Milwaukee Brewers at (924) Colorado Rockies: Moneyline	3:10pm EST - Mar 5/2026

The PLAY: Milwaukee Brewers -133

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

MIL vs COL — Spring Training (3/5/2026)

Venue: Salt River Fields at Talking Stick (Scottsdale, AZ)
Weather: ~76°F (warm/dry = ball carries a bit)
Probable starters: Robert Gasser (MIL) vs Michael Lorenzen (COL)

• MIL: 4–7 record, 57 runs, team ERA 5.34

• COL: 6–5 record, 69 runs, team ERA 6.03

Convert runs to runs per game (R/G):

• MIL R/G = 57 ÷ 11 = 5.18

• COL R/G = 69 ÷ 11 = 6.27

Two-team average R/G = (5.18 + 6.27) / 2 = 5.73
Offense index vs that average:

• MIL offense idx = 5.18 / 5.73 = 0.904

• COL offense idx = 6.27 / 5.73 = 1.094

Starters (2025 season baselines)

• Gasser (MIL) : 3.18

• Lorenzen (COL) : 4.64

Bullpens

• MIL bullpen ERA: 3.63

• COL bullpen ERA: 5.18

Spring workload assumption (early March)

Starters typically go ~3.0 IP in this window unless stretched out; I’m projecting:

• 3.0 IP starter + 6.0 IP bullpen for full game

• 3.0 IP starter + 2.0 IP bullpen for first 5 innings (F5)

• Full game: MIL 5.2 – COL 5.0

• Projected total: 10.3

Main lever in this projection: Rockies’ bullpen ERA vs Brewers’ 3.63.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(915) Arizona Diamondbacks at (916) Chicago Cubs: Moneyline	3:05pm EST - Mar 5/2026

The PLAY: Arizona Diamondbacks 115

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

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🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

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_______

D-backs vs Cubs — Spring Training (3/5/2026)

Venue: Sloan Park (Mesa, AZ), ~77°F at game time
Probable starters: Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs Colin Rea (CHC)

Spring offense (2026 spring to date)

• ARI: 69 runs, record 7–4 → 69/11 = 6.27 R/G

• CHC: 49 runs, record 5–7 → 49/12 = 4.08 R/G

Bullpens

• ARI bullpen ERA: 4.82

• CHC bullpen ERA: 3.78

Starters

• Nelson: 3.39 ERA

• Rea: 3.95 ERA

Spring workload assumption (early March)

Starters typically ~3.0 IP, then bullpens/minors arms for the rest (this is the single biggest “spring training” driver).

Book vs projected odds (chart)

Market	Team	My Win%	My Fair Odds
Full Game ML	ARI	58.3%	-140
Full Game ML	CHC	41.7%	+140

• Full game: ARI 5.2 – CHC 4.3

The math is basically screaming: Arizona’s spring scoring pace is hot, and Chicago’s bullpen profile is strong enough to keep it from turning into a track meet, but not strong enough (on paper) to fully cancel ARI’s current run rate.