Get Tokyo Brandon's WBC 4% best bet for $7! This isn’t a “hot week” capper. Among WagerTalk’s 33 handicappers, Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 in All-Sports profit 3 of the last 5 years:
Year-by-year receipts:
2024: #1 MLB Profit (+145 units)
2024: #1 All-Sports Profit (+180 units)
2022: #1 All-Sports Profit (+125 units)
2021: #1 All-Sports Profit (+225 units)
2025: #4 All-Sports Profit (+49 units)
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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline | 8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026 |
The PLAY: New York Yankees -120
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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!
Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
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_______
Offense baseline
Yankees: 5.24 R/G
Giants: 4.35 R/G
League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51
Offense index (approx):
NYY: 1.194
SFG: 0.991
Starters
Max Fried (NYY, LHP)
2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90
2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)
2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA
2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA
batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)
Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)
Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)
Projected lineups
Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells
Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey
1) Starter expected innings (March workload)
Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:
Webb: 5.0 IP
Fried: 5.1 IP
2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter
Fried context RA9
Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09
Small March bump = 3.24
H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65
Webb context RA9
Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23
Tiny March bump: = 3.29
H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68
3) Park/weather/travel adjustments
Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.
Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)
4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)
Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)
Projection results
Full game projected score
NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2
Projected total: 7.2
1st 5 innings projected score
NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8
1st5 projected total: 4.0
Starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Fried (NYY) | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
Logan Webb (SFG) | 5.0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Hitter boxscore projection
NYY hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trent Grisham | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Aaron Judge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Cody Bellinger | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ben Rice | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ryan McMahon | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
José Caballero | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Austin Wells | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
SFG hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heliot Ramos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Rafael Devers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Willy Adames | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matt Chapman | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jung Hoo Lee | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Harrison Bader | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Bryce Eldridge | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Casey Schmitt | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Patrick Bailey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wager & Probability Analysis
Moneyline value vs book
Team | Model win% | Fair ML | Book ML | Book implied% | Edge (Model–Book) | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NYY | 62.1% | -164 | -115 | 53.5% | +8.6% | +VALUE |
SFG | 37.9% | +164 | +105 | 48.8% | -10.9% | -VALUE |
Totals value (Full game O/U 7)
Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).
Market | Model proj | Model win% | Fair odds | Book odds | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 51.1% (no-push) | -105 | -110 | -1.2% | -VALUE |
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push) | 7.2 | 48.9% (no-push) | +105 | -110 | -3.5% | -VALUE |
Totals value (1st 5 innings)
I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.
Market | Model proj (1st5) | Model win% | Fair odds | Assumed book | Edge | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st5 Over 3.5 | 4.0 | 56.5% | -130 | -110 | +4.1% | +VALUE |
1st5 Under 3.5 | 4.0 | 43.5% | +130 | -110 | -8.9% | -VALUE |
Pros for Yankees -120
Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.
Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.
Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.
Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.
7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| BSKT | (300103) South East Melbourne at (300104) Adelaide | 4:30am EDT - Mar 10/2026 |
The PLAY: South East Melbourne +2.5 (-115)
ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT
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50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!
🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!
Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
Follow
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_______
SE Melbourne Phoenix +2.5 (-115)
South East Melbourne comes in hotter and cleaner. They just smashed Perth 111-94 in the Seeding Qualifier, forcing 17 turnovers, winning the offensive-rebound battle 17-8, and taking 28 more field-goal attempts despite shooting only 26% from three. That is a nasty little signal flare, because it means the Phoenix didn’t need outlier shooting to create margin. More broadly, their last-10 profile is much better than Adelaide’s: Phoenix are 7-3 with averages of 106.3 scored and 96.4 allowed, while Adelaide are 4-6 with 94.5 scored and 95.7 allowed. The split gets even louder when you isolate the relevant venue/form combo: Phoenix’s road scoring/defense in their last 10 is 100.6/89.0, while Adelaide’s home scoring/defense in its last 10 is 91.25/101.25. That is not a tiny edge; that is a foghorn.
The matchup history also leans Phoenix in the current version of this rivalry, even if the season series is 2-2 overall. South East Melbourne won the two most recent meetings by 108-89 and 97-77, and Adelaide’s own playoff preview openly notes there hasn’t really been a close game between these teams lately. Adelaide does have the long-run home-court history at the AEC, where it is 8-4 all-time against SEM, but recent form matters more than museum exhibits.
Injuries nudge this toward the dog as well. Adelaide remains without Isaac Humphries for the season, and Ben Griscti is still listed TBC on the league injury page. On the Phoenix side, the main watch item is Ian Clark’s calf after Wednesday, but the team still rolled Perth with its defense, glass work, and shot-volume edge rather than pure shotmaking. Adelaide’s engine is obviously Bryce Cotton, and he’s talking ahead of this series, so he looks available now, but the 36ers’ interior depth is still thinner without Humphries.
My projection is Phoenix 98, Adelaide 95. That makes Phoenix a small favorite on my numbers, so getting +2.5 has value. The market is basically pricing Adelaide as the slightly better side because of seeding and home court; the recent data says the better basketball has been coming from SEM. Bookmaker gremlin may still win, but Phoenix plus the points is the only wager here that clears my 4/5 bar.
Last 10 games: Phoenix still have the stronger form edge. ESPN’s matchup page shows Phoenix entering this series at 22-11 and Adelaide at 23-10, but the recent results list is more flattering to SEM: they beat Perth 111-94, beat Tasmania 120-104, and beat New Zealand 114-83 in their last five, while Adelaide lost two of its last three and just got tagged for 111 by New Zealand at home.
Head-to-head this season: this is the big swing piece, and it still favors the dog. The season series is 2-2, so Adelaide is not walking into some fake mismatch. More importantly, the Phoenix won the last two meetings, and one official preview notes they beat Adelaide by over 20 points in both, while Adelaide’s own series preview confirms the most recent matchup was a 97-77 Phoenix win and that the four meetings were split evenly. That matters because it says the current version of SEM has found tactical pressure points against this opponent rather than just living off random variance pixie dust.
Home/away pattern: this is the one area that keeps me from bumping it to 5. Adelaide earned the 2-seed and is at home for Game 1, and their overall record is a tick better than SEM’s. ESPN has them 23-10 versus 22-11. Home court is real, not decorative garnish. But the recent home form is not some fortress of doom: Adelaide’s latest home result was a 111-107 loss to New Zealand, and Phoenix just showed they can travel and impose themselves physically after handling New Zealand on the road and then smashing Perth in the qualifier.
Recent form / style matchup: this is where I still land on Phoenix plus the points. Fox Sports quoted Josh King saying the Phoenix made a defensive recalibration before the finals, and the Perth game backed that up. SEM won 111-94, and King specifically said they wanted to win it on the defensive side and wear teams down. On the NBL side, Damon Lowery’s playoff breakdown is opinion, not data, but the reasoning is still grounded: Phoenix have more lineup depth and are less dependent on one offensive source, while Adelaide’s defense and size were questioned heading into the series. Treat that as informed color, not gospel tablets from the mountain.
Injuries: this also keeps me on Phoenix. Adelaide officially announced Isaac Humphries is out 4 to 6 weeks with a left foot injury, which is a real dent to their frontcourt structure. Adelaide’s match preview also referenced Humphries being “put on ice” in the last SEM meeting, and a prior NBL injury report listed Ben Griscti as TBC with a neck issue. On the Phoenix side, Ian Clark had been an injury watch recently, but the strongest current reporting around this series is that SEM’s bigger story is form and depth, not a major confirmed new absence.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| BSKT | (300413) Vasco at (300414) Uniao Corinthians: Spread | 6:30pm EDT - Mar 9/2026 |
The PLAY: Uniao Corinthians -9.5 (-115)
ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT
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🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!
Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
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_______
União Corinthians -9.5 (-115) vs Vasco da Gama
União Corinthians is 10th at 15-13, while Vasco is dead-last at 4-25 with a -281 point differential; that is not a subtle gap, that is a canyon wearing a fake mustache. In the first meeting this season, União won 85-78 at Vasco, and they just beat Caxias on the road 90-80 a few days ago. Vasco’s recent posted result was another loss, 85-80 to Franca, and their recent schedule/results page shows they’ve stayed buried near the bottom all season.
The form/trend layer still supports the favorite. AiScore’s recent-form snippet has União at 3-2 in its last 5, allowing 77.0 ppg, while Vasco is 2-3, allowing 82.0 ppg and scoring just 71.4 ppg. That low Vasco offensive output is the big issue against a mid-table team still chasing playoff positioning. União also gets this one at home, and 365Scores had this game lined around Corinthians -10, which is basically the same neighborhood as your DK -9.5.
My projection is União Corinthians 82, Vasco da Gama 70. That gives me enough room to still like -9.5.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (949) Los Angeles Angels at (950) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline | 4:05pm EDT - Mar 9/2026 |
The PLAY: San Francisco Giants -110
ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT
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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!
Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials
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_______
My projection
Full game: Giants 5.1, Angels 4.4
Projected total: 9.5
Fair odds vs book
Team | Book odds | Book implied % | No-vig implied % | My win % | Fair odds | Edge vs book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Angels | -108 | 51.9% | 50.9% | 46.3% | +116 | -4.6% |
Giants | -112 | 52.8% | 49.1% | 53.7% | -116 | +4.6% |
Probable pitching points to José Soriano for the Angels while the Giants are still listed TBD on MLB/ESPN. Soriano’s current spring line is ugly — 17.18 ERA, 3.00 WHIP in 3.2 IP — and he is also listed day-to-day on ESPN. That does not mean he is bad in a larger sense, but in a short spring outing it adds volatility right away.
The bigger driver is team context. The Giants are 13-2 in spring and just beat the Cubs while continuing to get strong production from backup and bubble-roster players; the Chronicle specifically noted that none of the regular starters were in the lineup for that win, which is exactly the kind of thing I care about in March because it signals real camp depth. The Angels, by contrast, are sitting around 7-11 in spring.
Recent available bats also lean Giants. ESPN’s preview shows Victor Bericoto as a current spring producer for San Francisco, while the Chronicle highlighted Will Brennan (.421), Luis Matos (.375), Daniel Susac (.350), Buddy Kennedy, Casey Schmitt, and others competing well for roster spots. That suggests the Giants’ second-wave lineup quality is in better shape than the Angels’ current camp mix.
On the WBC front, San Francisco is missing meaningful names — MLB highlighted Logan Webb, Heliot Ramos, and Jung Hoo Lee being involved around the Classic — but the Giants have still been winning with depth pieces. The Angels also have WBC participants, including Yusei Kikuchi plus several upper-minors arms and outfielders tied to national teams, so neither side is full-strength. The difference is that the Giants’ available spring roster has looked more functional.
Betting takeaway
Projected winner: Giants
Fair line: Giants about -116
At Giants -112: slight value
At Angels -108: no value for me
So the clean answer is: Giants are the better side at this near-pick’em price. In spring, I’d rather trust the club showing real camp depth than the one handing me José Soriano day-to-day plus chaos dust.
Giants moneyline:
Better spring form: San Francisco is 13-2 in camp, while the Angels are around 7-11. In March, that is not everything, but it does reflect which organization is getting more competent innings and at-bats from the full camp roster.
Deeper spring roster right now: The Giants have been winning even with non-regulars and backup-role candidates carrying lineups. That is a big deal in spring training, where innings 5-9 often matter more than the name-brand starters.
Angels starter uncertainty: The likely Angels starter, José Soriano, had a rough spring line in the preview I used and was also listed day-to-day, which adds early-game volatility.
Giants’ current camp bats are producing: San Francisco’s available hitters have been getting real spring output from depth pieces like Will Brennan, Luis Matos, Daniel Susac, Buddy Kennedy, Casey Schmitt, and others fighting for jobs. That matters more in these games than full-season reputation.
Price is still reasonable: My fair line came out around Giants -116, so -112 is not a huge edge, but it is still a playable number versus my projection. That makes it more of a value look than a blind “better team” look.
Spring-game script favors them: I have it roughly Giants 2.2–1.8 after five and Giants 5.1–4.4 full game, so they project slightly better both early and late.