Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline	8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026

The PLAY: New York Yankees -120

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_______

Offense baseline

• Yankees: 5.24 R/G

• Giants: 4.35 R/G

• League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51

  • Offense index (approx):

    • NYY: 1.194

    • SFG: 0.991

Starters

Max Fried (NYY, LHP)

• 2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90

• 2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

• 2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA

• 2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA

  batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)

• Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)

• Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)

Projected lineups

• Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells

• Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey

---

1) Starter expected innings (March workload)

Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:

• Webb: 5.0 IP

• Fried: 5.1 IP

2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter

Fried context RA9

• Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09

• Small March bump = 3.24

• H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65

Webb context RA9

• Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23

• Tiny March bump: = 3.29

• H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68

3) Park/weather/travel adjustments

• Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.

• Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)

4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)

Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)

---

Projection results

Full game projected score

• NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2

• Projected total: 7.2

1st 5 innings projected score

• NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8

• 1st5 projected total: 4.0

---

Starting pitcher boxscore

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried (NYY)	5.1	2	4	6	2
Logan Webb (SFG)	5.0	2	5	5	1

---

Hitter boxscore projection

NYY hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Trent Grisham	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
Aaron Judge	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Cody Bellinger	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Rice	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Giancarlo Stanton	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Ryan McMahon	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
José Caballero	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Wells	4	0	1	0	0	0	1

SFG hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Heliot Ramos	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
Willy Adames	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Matt Chapman	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Harrison Bader	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Bryce Eldridge	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0

---

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline value vs book

Team	Model win%	Fair ML	Book ML	Book implied%	Edge (Model–Book)	Value?
NYY	62.1%	-164	-115	53.5%	+8.6%	+VALUE
SFG	37.9%	+164	+105	48.8%	-10.9%	-VALUE

Totals value (Full game O/U 7)

Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).

Market	Model proj	Model win%	Fair odds	Book odds	Edge	Value?
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push)	7.2	51.1% (no-push)	-105	-110	-1.2%	-VALUE
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push)	7.2	48.9% (no-push)	+105	-110	-3.5%	-VALUE

Totals value (1st 5 innings)

I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.

Market	Model proj (1st5)	Model win%	Fair odds	Assumed book	Edge	Value?
1st5 Over 3.5	4.0	56.5%	-130	-110	+4.1%	+VALUE
1st5 Under 3.5	4.0	43.5%	+130	-110	-8.9%	-VALUE

---

Pros for Yankees -120

• Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.

• Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.

• Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.

• Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.

• 7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
KBL	(301829) Seoul Thunders at (301830) LG Sakers: Spread	6:00am EDT - Mar 13/2026

The PLAY: LG Sakers -10.5 (-110)

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--

Projected score: LG 84, Seoul Samsung 72

LG has been the much better team all season. They’re first in the KBL at 31-15, with a +5.6 scoring margin, and they’re a solid 16-8 at home. Seoul Samsung is down near the basement at 13-32, with a -3.4 margin, and just 7-15 on the road. The recent-form split is ugly too: LG is 6-4 in its last 10, while Seoul Samsung is 1-9 in its last 10 and on a 4-game losing streak.

The season head-to-head is basically a flashing neon sign. LG is 5-0 against Seoul Samsung this season, with these results: 75-64, 95-83, 80-62, 83-70, 107-79. That is an average margin of about +16.4 points for LG, and an average total of about 159.6. So the market number of LG -10.5 is actually lighter than what the season series has produced.

Recent game flow adds one wrinkle. LG has cooled a bit lately, losing 70-71 to Seoul SK on March 8 and 70-74 to Goyang Sono on March 11, though it did beat Ulsan 83-75 on March 6. Seoul Samsung has also been stumbling, losing 79-81 to KCC on March 7 and 79-84 to Anyang KGC on March 9. So both teams come in a little clunky, which is why I prefer the spread over the total.

My betting view:

LG -10.5:
The matchup history, season quality gap, and home/road split all point that way. This is the best angle.

So the sharpest card here is LG -10.5, with a final in the neighborhood of 84-72.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(925) Kansas City Royals at (926) San Diego Padres: Moneyline	9:10pm EDT - Mar 12/2026

The PLAY: Kansas City Royals 114

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Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Royals +114:

1. You’re getting plus money with the only confirmed starter.
Kansas City has Kris Bubic listed, while San Diego’s starter is still TBD/Undecided, uncertainty is extra gremlin fuel, so having the confirmed arm at a plus price is useful.

2. Bubic has been sharp so far in camp.
MLB lists Bubic at 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 6 SO, and ESPN shows him at 5.0 IP, 7 H, 6 K, 2 BB, 0 HR allowed. That is not ace-proof, but it is a solid spring profile and better than walking in blind against a TBD opponent.

3. San Diego is being priced like the clearly better side, but the spring resumes are not that far apart.
The Padres are 9-9 and 5-3 home, while the Royals are 6-12-1 and 3-7 away. That explains favoritism, but spring records are noisy little goblins, and I do not love laying -135 when the starter on one side is still unknown.

4. The number is not huge, but it still matters.
At +114, Kansas City needs to win only about 46.7% of the time to break even. At -135, San Diego needs about 57.4%. That is a pretty meaningful gap for an exhibition game likely to become a bullpen-and-prospects relay race by the middle innings.

5. KC’s spring positives are mostly on the pitching side, which is what you want here.
Recent Royals camp coverage has highlighted strong spring work from Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans, and Ryan Bergert, and also noted relievers like Steven Cruz and Beck Way have impressed. That does not guarantee late-inning dominance, but it supports the idea that KC is not just showing up with duct tape and vibes.

6. There’s a small “market may be overreacting to team record” angle.
The Royals’ record looks ugly, but spring betting is less about win-loss totals and more about who is actually available, who starts, and who has enough live arms to survive innings 5-9. With Bubic confirmed and the Padres still TBD, I’d rather take the biscuit with KC +114 than pay the tax on San Diego.

My lean: Royals +114 or pass.
Not a giant edge, but the dog has the better price logic. The cleanest reason is simple: confirmed decent starter at plus money vs. favorite with no announced starter yet. Spring baseball is a weird little lab experiment, so that setup is playable.

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(915) Atlanta Braves at (916) Pittsburgh Pirates: Moneyline	6:05pm EDT - Mar 12/2026

The PLAY: Atlanta Braves 100

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Braves +100:

1. The starter matchup actually leans Atlanta.
The listed spring starters are Grant Holmes for Atlanta and Bubba Chandler for Pittsburgh. Holmes has been much cleaner in camp so far: 0.00 ERA, 7 K in 7.1 IP, while Chandler has a rough 10.50 ERA, 9 K, 10 BB in 6.0 IP. That is the kind of starter split where even money on Atlanta gets interesting.

2. Atlanta has the better spring record.
The Braves are 12-4 coming into this game, while the Pirates are 12-6. Both teams have been good, but Atlanta’s spring form has been a little stronger overall, which helps when the price is only even money.

3. Pittsburgh is asking you to trust a wild prospect at a favorite price.
Bubba Chandler is talented, but his current spring line shows the chaos goblin is fully awake: 10 walks in 6 innings is not exactly “safe favorite” material. In spring, command problems can snowball fast because starters often have short leashes and the game gets weird quickly.

4. Atlanta’s pitching depth is still real.
Recent Braves camp coverage noted that even arms sent down, like Hayden Harris, were missing bats in a big way, and veterans like James Karinchak have also shown strikeout stuff in camp. That matters because spring games are often decided by innings 5 through 9 more than by the listed starter.

5. At +100, you don’t need heroics.
Even money means Atlanta only needs to win 50% of the time to break even. With the better listed starter and a stronger spring profile, that’s a cleaner setup than laying Pirates -120, which implies about 54.5%. That difference may sound small, but in exhibition baseball it matters.

My lean: Braves +100 is playable.
Of the two prices, I’d much rather take Atlanta at even money than pay Pittsburgh -120 with Chandler’s current command mess. Spring baseball is a weird little swamp, so I want the side with the steadier starter and the cheaper ticket.

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