Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline	8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026

The PLAY: New York Yankees -120

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Offense baseline

• Yankees: 5.24 R/G

• Giants: 4.35 R/G

• League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51

  • Offense index (approx):

    • NYY: 1.194

    • SFG: 0.991

Starters

Max Fried (NYY, LHP)

• 2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90

• 2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

• 2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA

• 2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA

  batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)

• Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)

• Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)

Projected lineups

• Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells

• Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey

---

1) Starter expected innings (March workload)

Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:

• Webb: 5.0 IP

• Fried: 5.1 IP

2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter

Fried context RA9

• Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09

• Small March bump = 3.24

• H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65

Webb context RA9

• Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23

• Tiny March bump: = 3.29

• H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68

3) Park/weather/travel adjustments

• Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.

• Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)

4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)

Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)

---

Projection results

Full game projected score

• NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2

• Projected total: 7.2

1st 5 innings projected score

• NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8

• 1st5 projected total: 4.0

---

Starting pitcher boxscore

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried (NYY)	5.1	2	4	6	2
Logan Webb (SFG)	5.0	2	5	5	1

---

Hitter boxscore projection

NYY hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Trent Grisham	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
Aaron Judge	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Cody Bellinger	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Rice	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Giancarlo Stanton	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Ryan McMahon	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
José Caballero	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Wells	4	0	1	0	0	0	1

SFG hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Heliot Ramos	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
Willy Adames	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Matt Chapman	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Harrison Bader	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Bryce Eldridge	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0

---

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline value vs book

Team	Model win%	Fair ML	Book ML	Book implied%	Edge (Model–Book)	Value?
NYY	62.1%	-164	-115	53.5%	+8.6%	+VALUE
SFG	37.9%	+164	+105	48.8%	-10.9%	-VALUE

Totals value (Full game O/U 7)

Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).

Market	Model proj	Model win%	Fair odds	Book odds	Edge	Value?
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push)	7.2	51.1% (no-push)	-105	-110	-1.2%	-VALUE
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push)	7.2	48.9% (no-push)	+105	-110	-3.5%	-VALUE

Totals value (1st 5 innings)

I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.

Market	Model proj (1st5)	Model win%	Fair odds	Assumed book	Edge	Value?
1st5 Over 3.5	4.0	56.5%	-130	-110	+4.1%	+VALUE
1st5 Under 3.5	4.0	43.5%	+130	-110	-8.9%	-VALUE

---

Pros for Yankees -120

• Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.

• Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.

• Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.

• Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.

• 7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(947) Chicago Cubs at (948) Cleveland Guardians: Moneyline	9:05pm EDT - Mar 16/2026

The PLAY: Cleveland Guardians -122

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_______

CHI Cubs at CLE Guardians

Book: Cubs +102, Guardians -122

Starting pitchers

Edge: Guardians

The probable starters are now posted as Cade Horton for Chicago and Gavin Williams for Cleveland at Goodyear Ballpark on March 16, 2026. Horton’s spring line is 0-1, 9.53 ERA in 5.2 IP; Williams is 1-0, 3.38 ERA in 8.0 IP. That gives Cleveland the cleaner starter profile by a decent margin, especially in a spring game where the first 2-4 innings matter more than the final stat line’s theatrical nonsense.

Lineups

Slight edge: Cubs

I still give the lineup edge to Chicago on paper. The Cubs’ projected everyday group is deeper top to bottom, while Cleveland has strong top-end bats but a little less overall punch. That said, spring lineups are glorified science fairs, so this edge matters less than it would in a regular-season game. This is an inference based on projected 2026 roster construction rather than a posted day-of lineup.

Bullpens

Edge: Guardians

Cleveland remains the better spring bullpen/depth side for me. Their home spring form is stronger, and in these March games the Guardians’ late-inning pipeline tends to be more stable than Chicago’s. With no locked-in live bullpen card on the preview page, this is still a projection rather than a hard-count bullpen model, but the edge stays with Cleveland.

Farm / late innings

Edge: Guardians

This is where Cleveland still gets real spring value. The Guardians are at home, their spring record is better, and their organizational depth usually plays well once the regulars disappear and the game becomes a prospect pageant with stirrups. Chicago can absolutely hit enough to stay in it, but Cleveland’s overall spring environment is more favorable.

Current spring form

Edge: Guardians

The Cubs are 9-13, 3-7 away. Cleveland is 11-11-1, 7-4 home. That home/away split matters in spring because managers are often using these games for role-specific reps, and Cleveland has simply been more comfortable in this setting.

Projection

Projected score:
Guardians 5.3, Cubs 4.4

Lean: Guardians

Compared with the earlier placeholder-pitcher version, Cleveland looks a bit stronger now because Gavin Williams over Cade Horton is a more concrete first-half edge than a generic depth argument.

• 
  

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
BSB	(308991) Venezuela at (308992) Italy: F5 Total	8:00pm EDT - Mar 16/2026

The PLAY: F5 Total Over 5.5 (-118)

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#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Starting pitchers

Venezuela: Keider Montero (RHP)
Montero is a younger, more volatile arm than the market is treating him. Tournament staff ERA is at 3.20, but Montero himself has mostly been used in shorter bursts here; he threw three scoreless relief innings vs. Nicaragua and his 2025 MLB line was 5-3, 4.37 ERA in 20 big-league appearances for Detroit.

Italy: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
Lorenzen is the steadier tournament-style starter. He threw 4 2/3 scoreless innings against Team USA earlier in the tournament, and his 2025 MLB season finished at 7-11 with a 4.64 ERA before signing with Colorado. In a one-game environment, that veteran stability matters because Italy does not need six innings from him; it needs a solid 3-5 and a handoff.

Venezuela hitters vs. Michael Lorenzen (much more meaningful history)

• Ronald Acuña Jr. vs Lorenzen: 3-for-9, 1 HR, 12 PA, 1.167 OPS.

• Luis Arraez vs Lorenzen: 3-for-8, RBI, .750 OPS.

• Maikel Garcia vs Lorenzen: 4-for-10, 11 PA, .855 OPS.

Likely lineups and spot-by-spot edge

Venezuela most recent WBC lineup vs Japan

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. RF

2. Maikel Garcia 3B

3. Luis Arraez 1B

4. Eugenio Suárez DH

5. Ezequiel Tovar SS

6. Gleyber Torres 2B

7. Wilyer Abreu LF

8. Salvador Perez C

9. Jackson Chourio CF

Italy likely lineup

Italy’s quarterfinal scoring flow shows these bats in the heart/order mix: Antonacci, Marsee, Pasquantino, Canzone, Caglianone, D’Orazio, Fischer, with Rocchio joining before this semifinal and Mastrobuoni out. The exact 8-9 were not cleanly published in the sources I could verify, so the likely build is something like:

1. Sam Antonacci

2. Jakob Marsee

3. Vinnie Pasquantino

4. Dominic Canzone

5. Jac Caglianone

6. J.J. D’Orazio

7. Andrew Fischer

8. Dante Nori / Brayan Rocchio

9. Brayan Rocchio / another depth bat
   That uncertainty is real, not decorative.

1-9 advantage

1: Acuña over Antonacci — big edge Venezuela. Acuña is the best top-of-order force in the game.
2: Garcia vs Marsee — slight Venezuela. Marsee is a good table-setter, but Garcia has been a major tournament driver and has solid Lorenzen history on the other side of this matchup tree.
3: Arraez vs Pasquantino — push/slight Venezuela for contact, slight Italy for power-on-base blend. I call this basically even.
4: Eugenio Suárez vs Canzone — slight Venezuela on résumé, though Canzone is live.
5: Tovar vs Caglianone — slight Italy for raw thump ceiling, but Tovar is the more stable all-around current bat in this tournament. I’ll grade it even/slight Venezuela because Caglianone’s MLB track record is still vapor.
6: Torres vs D’Orazio — slight Venezuela on MLB-proven bat, though D’Orazio has been excellent in the event.
7: Abreu vs Fischer — Venezuela edge. Abreu’s go-ahead blast vs Japan was the swing of the tournament for them.
8: Perez vs Nori/Rocchio — Venezuela edge if Perez starts; Italy’s possible Rocchio addition helps, but this is still likely Venezuela.
9: Chourio vs Italy’s likely 9-hole — Venezuela edge. Chourio in the 9 spot is absurd little cheat-code nonsense.

Overall lineup edge: Venezuela.
Italy’s lineup is deeper than casual bettors think — FOX has them at 8.0 runs/game, .287 AVG, 12 HR for the tournament, and MLB noted Italy entered the semifinal with a .982 team OPS. But Venezuela’s top-end star power is better, and that matters more when both teams can shorten the game with premium bullpen arms.

Bullpen edge

Venezuela bullpen
This group looked nasty against Japan. The pen retired 13 straight batters at one point, and the quarterfinal usage behind Ranger Suárez was Bazardo, De Jesus, Butto, Zerpa, Machado, Palencia, all scoreless. Daniel Palencia is the power closer type. That’s serious late-game electricity.

Italy bullpen
Italy’s bullpen has also been very good. Against Puerto Rico, Greg Weissert got his third save of the tournament, and other reports credited Dylan DeLucia with four scoreless innings to bridge the middle. Italy also has major-league-ish relief depth with names like Joe La Sorsa, Matt Festa, Ron Marinaccio, Alek Jacob, Greg Weissert on roster reports/snippets.

Bullpen verdict: slight Venezuela.
Italy’s pen is no joke, but Venezuela’s current form plus raw stuff at the back end is a tick better. Against a hot Italy offense, I trust Venezuela a little more to miss bats in the biggest spots.

1st 5 over 5.5:

• Both teams are coming in hot offensively. Venezuela just put up 8 runs on Japan, and Italy scored 8 on Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals. That matters for a first-5 over because you are not betting on sleepy April bats here; both lineups have already shown they can land early damage against quality opposition.

• Keider Montero is the shakier starter in this matchup. The AP preview confirms Venezuela is handing the ball to Montero, while Italy goes with veteran Michael Lorenzen. That setup supports an over case because Italy does not need to dominate; it just needs to scratch out 2-3 early and make Venezuela do the heavy lifting after that.

• Lorenzen is solid, but Venezuela’s lineup is dangerous enough to crack him. Lorenzen was excellent against Team USA, throwing 4 2/3 scoreless innings, but Venezuela is a nastier offensive puzzle than a one-game stat line can fully capture. Their quarterfinal comeback against Japan showed real top-end pressure, not just random bloop nonsense.

• You are attacking the game before the better bullpen depth fully takes over. My bigger concern with the full-game over is late relief quality, especially from Venezuela. First 5 strips out some of that bullpen drag and puts more weight on the starters plus first-turn lineup aggression. That is friendlier terrain for an over ticket. The baseball gremlin here is simple: starters are easier targets than fresh late-inning relievers.

• A 4-2 or 3-3 script is very live. Venezuela’s offense has enough thunder to score multiple times by itself, and Italy has been