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Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(717) Siena at (718) Duke: Spread	2:50pm EDT - Mar 19/2026

The PLAY: Siena +28.5 (-115)

Second-year head coach Gerry McNamara led Siena to its first NCAA tournament appearance in sixteen years, and the Saints possess a veteran roster ranked 26th nationally in "minutes continuity" on KenPom, a metric that measures a team's roster turnover from one year to the next. Siena is one of the most reliable teams at the free-throw line, making 76.9% of its attempts, ranking 43rd in the nation. Since 2012, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 179-137-3 ATS (56.6%), including 117-86 ATS (57.6%) since 2018. In contrast, the Blue Devils are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country, ranking 200th at 72.4%. Since 2012, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 139-97-3 ATS (58.9%) versus opponents shooting worse than 75% from the charity stripe, including 87-56 ATS (60.8%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.4 points per game. Siena enters the NCAA tournament off a 64-54 win over Merrimack as 1.5-point underdogs, which is significant because NCAA tournament teams coming off a game in which they allowed 55 points or less are 148-113-2 ATS (56.7%). Similarly, NCAA tournament underdogs arriving off a game in which they allowed 60 points or fewer are 139-102-3 ATS (57.7%), while underdogs of +6 or greater are 62-35 ATS (63.9%) following a game in which they allowed fewer than 59 points. Grab the points with the Siena Saints as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 19.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(709) South Florida at (710) Louisville: Total	1:30pm EDT - Mar 19/2026

The PLAY: Total Under 165.5 (-105)

Since 2017, Round 1 of the NCAA tournament has gone 264-182 to the Under (59.2%), including 158-98 UNDER (61.7%) since 2021, going under by an average margin of -2.8 points per game. Since 2016, Round 1 games with totals of 149 or more points are 39-22-1 to the Under (63.9%), while early round games with totals of 135 points or greater are 158-117-2 to the Under (57.5%), including 114-69 UNDER (62.3%) since 2017. Louisville's up-tempo offense ranks 41st in the country in Pace (71.1), which represents a team’s average number of possessions per 40 minutes. That metric is significant because fast-paced college basketball teams (e.g., 70.0 or greater) are 146-117-3 (55.5%) to the Under in NCAA Tournament games, including 73-46 UNDER (61.3%) since 2019. Since 2012, American Conference underdogs are 11-5-1 to the Under (68.8%) in the NCAA tournament, going under by an average margin of -4.6 points per game. Since 2012, college basketball teams averaging a certain against-the-spread margin are 72-49-4 to the Under (59.5%), including 34-10 UNDER (77.3%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season, going under by an average margin of -7.2 points per game. Finally, South Florida is 58-28 to the Under (67.4%) following a game in which their opponent had a certain number of rebounds, provided they own a win percentage of .458 or greater. Take the Under in the South Florida/Louisville game as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 19.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NBA	(537) Portland Trail Blazers at (538) Indiana Pacers: Spread	7:40pm EDT - Mar 18/2026

The PLAY: Portland Trail Blazers -10.5 (-110)

Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five points or greater are 1818-1525-66 ATS (55%), while .599 or worse road favorites of greater than three points are 720-528-29 ATS (57.7%) after the All-Star break, including 229-133-6 ATS (63.3%) since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.4 points per game. Let’s also note that double-digit road favorites are 388-314-15 ATS (55.3%). Since 1989, rested NBA road favorites are 457-354-11 ATS (56.4%) from Game 28 forward versus unrested opponents. Portland falls into a profitable 1328-1019-42 ATS (56.6%) NBA Road Favorite system of mine that dates to 2001 and invests on certain road favorites of greater than three points. Finally, the Trail Blazers find support in a profitable 341-208-12 ATS (62.1%) NBA Road Favorite Scoring Margin system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on large road favorites with certain scoring margins. This situation has been 229-136-5 ATS (62.7%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.9 points per game. Lay the points with the Portland Trail Blazers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, March 18. **Jeff Keim is on a RED-HOT 59-26 (69.4%) overall run and is the #1 Handicapper at WagerTalk in Win % and Units Won over the L/35 days!**

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(685) Lehigh at (686) Prairie View A&M: Spread	6:40pm EDT - Mar 18/2026

The PLAY: Lehigh -3.5 (-108)

Prairie View A&M boasts the nation’s longest ATS winning streak at 11 games, but finished eighth in the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) before winning the conference tournament to earn the school’s third Division I NCAA tournament berth. The Panthers play at an extremely fast pace, ranking 14th in the country in Pace (72.7), which represents a team’s average number of possessions per 40 minutes. That metric is significant because fast-paced college basketball teams (e.g., 70.0 or greater) are 109-149-8 ATS (42.2%) in NCAA Tournament games since 2010, including 47-72 ATS (39.5%) since 2019, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -3.2 points per game. In contrast, Lehigh’s style of play is methodical and one of the slowest in the country, ranking 262nd in Pace (66.5). Since 2011, fast-paced NCAA tournament teams like Prairie View A&M are 84-124-4 ATS (40.4%) versus slow-paced teams like the Mountain Hawks, including 37-62 ATS (37.4%) since 2019, and have fallen short of market expectations by an average margin of -3.8 points per game. Lehigh is led by junior Nasir Whitlock, a 6-2 guard averaging 21.1 points per game on 45% shooting from beyond the arc. Finally, the Mountain Hawks have lost once since February 7, over which time they have made 43% of their three-point field goal attempts (fifth in the nation). Lay the number with the Lehigh Mountaineers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, March 18.