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Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NBA	(575) Boston Celtics at (576) Memphis Grizzlies: Spread	8:10pm EDT - Mar 20/2026

The PLAY: Boston Celtics -15.0 (-110)

Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five points or greater are 1822-1529-66 ATS (55%), while moderate NBA favorites are 776-599-29 ATS (56.4%) following three consecutive games in which they scored 105 or more points. Let’s also note that double-digit road favorites are 390-316-15 ATS (55.2%), including 192-104-6 ATS (64.9%) following the All-Star break when they have a non-division game on deck. Since 1999, NBA road favorites of -9 or greater are 183-125-8 ATS (59.4%) versus opponents with the same amount of rest after the All-Star break. Boston falls into a profitable 1330-1023-42 ATS (56.5%) NBA Road Favorite system of mine that dates to 2001 and invests on certain road favorites of greater than three points. Finally, the Celtics find support in a profitable 341-211-12 ATS (61.8%) NBA Road Favorite Scoring Margin system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on large road favorites with certain scoring margins. This situation has been 229-139-5 ATS (62.2%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.3 points per game. Lay the points with the Boston Celtics as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(747) Iowa at (748) Clemson: Total	6:50pm EDT - Mar 20/2026

The PLAY: Total Under 129.0 (-110)

Since 2017, Round 1 of the NCAA tournament has hit the Under 59.4% of the time (272-186), improving to 61.7% (166-102) since 2021, with games averaging 2.9 points below the total. Since 2019, Big Ten Conference teams are 29-12 to the Under (70.7%) in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, including 20-5 UNDER (80%) since 2022, going under by an average margin of -5.2 points per game. Similarly, ACC underdogs of less than five points are 26-15 to the Under (63.4%) since 2013, including 19-10 UNDER (65.5%) since 2016, going under by an average margin of -4.3 points per game. Iowa possesses a mediocre offense ranked 207th in the nation in Points Per Game (75.2%), 112th in 3-Point FG% (35.7%), 358th in Rebounds (26.8), and 309th in Offensive Rebounds (7.6). The Hawkeyes will struggle to score against an above-average Clemson defense ranked 19th in Points Per Game Allowed (66.7), 47th in Field Goal Percentage Allowed (41.9), and 60th in Rebounds Per Game (29.6). The Tigers are also challenged offensively, ranking 237th in Points Per Game (74.1), 148th in Field Goal Percentage (148th), and 182nd in 3-Point FG% (34.1). Finally, both teams employ methodical offenses that utilize the shot clock. Specifically, Iowa ranks 361st in Pace (Pace = Possessions / 40 Minutes), while the Tigers rank 307th (65.6). Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(771) Utah State at (772) Villanova: Spread	4:10pm EDT - Mar 20/2026

The PLAY: Villanova +2.0 (-116)

The NCAA Tournament has not been kind to Mountain West Conference teams, as these teams have posted a 24-44 SU (35.3%) and 19-35 ATS (35.2%) record in the Big Dance since 2012, losing by an average margin of -4.0 points per game and failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.4 points per game. Even more alarming is the fact that college basketball teams coming from high elevation campuses are 25-83 SU (23.1%) and 26-50 ATS (34.2%) in the NCAA Tournament, losing by an average of -8.1 points per game and falling short of market expectations by an average of -4.8 points per game. More specifically, Utah State is 1-8 SU and 1-5 ATS (16.7%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2012, failing to cover the spread by an average of -11.4 points per game. Utah State falls into a very negative 117-150 ATS (43.8%) college basketball system that invests against certain neutral-site teams with 25 or more wins, provided they aren’t favored by three or more points. This situation is 53-80 ATS (39.8%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season. More importantly, these 25-plus win teams are 85-114 ATS (42.7%) in the NCAA Tournament, including 29-50 (36.7%) since 2023. Grab the point(s) with the Villanova Wildcats as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(741) Akron at (742) Texas Tech: Total	12:40pm EDT - Mar 20/2026

The PLAY: Total Under 156.5 (-115)

Akron has won ten straight games and earned its third consecutive NCAA tournament berth. However, since 2004, single-digit college basketball underdogs coming off ten or more consecutive straight-up wins are 111-88-2 to the Under (55.8%), including 93-70-1 UNDER (57.1%) since 2014. This situation is 36-22-1 to the Under (62.1%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2012, going under by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2017, Round 1 of the NCAA tournament has hit the Under 59.2% of the time (264-182), improving to 61.7% (158-98) since 2021, with games averaging 2.8 points below the total. Since 2016, first-round games featuring totals of 149 points or higher have gone 39-22-1 to the Under (63.9%). Additionally, early round matchups with totals of at least 135 points have gone 161-119-2 to the Under (57.5%), including 116-70 UNDER (62.4%) since 2017. Texas Tech falls into a profitable 139-113-1 (55.2%) college basketball totals system of mine that dates to 2015 and invests on the under in certain late-season games involving teams on an extended ATS losing streak. Finally, the Red Raiders are backed by a 523-419-7 (55.5%) totals system that favors the under when teams with eight or fewer losses face opponents with an average ranking better than seventeenth nationally. This situation is 251-190-2 to the UNDER (56.9%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Take the Under in the Akron/Texas Tech game as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.