Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline	8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026

The PLAY: New York Yankees -120

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_______

Offense baseline

• Yankees: 5.24 R/G

• Giants: 4.35 R/G

• League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51

  • Offense index (approx):

    • NYY: 1.194

    • SFG: 0.991

Starters

Max Fried (NYY, LHP)

• 2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90

• 2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

• 2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA

• 2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA

  batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)

• Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)

• Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)

Projected lineups

• Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells

• Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey

---

1) Starter expected innings (March workload)

Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:

• Webb: 5.0 IP

• Fried: 5.1 IP

2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter

Fried context RA9

• Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09

• Small March bump = 3.24

• H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65

Webb context RA9

• Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23

• Tiny March bump: = 3.29

• H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68

3) Park/weather/travel adjustments

• Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.

• Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)

4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)

Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)

---

Projection results

Full game projected score

• NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2

• Projected total: 7.2

1st 5 innings projected score

• NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8

• 1st5 projected total: 4.0

---

Starting pitcher boxscore

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried (NYY)	5.1	2	4	6	2
Logan Webb (SFG)	5.0	2	5	5	1

---

Hitter boxscore projection

NYY hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Trent Grisham	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
Aaron Judge	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Cody Bellinger	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Rice	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Giancarlo Stanton	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Ryan McMahon	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
José Caballero	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Wells	4	0	1	0	0	0	1

SFG hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Heliot Ramos	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
Willy Adames	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Matt Chapman	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Harrison Bader	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Bryce Eldridge	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0

---

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline value vs book

Team	Model win%	Fair ML	Book ML	Book implied%	Edge (Model–Book)	Value?
NYY	62.1%	-164	-115	53.5%	+8.6%	+VALUE
SFG	37.9%	+164	+105	48.8%	-10.9%	-VALUE

Totals value (Full game O/U 7)

Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).

Market	Model proj	Model win%	Fair odds	Book odds	Edge	Value?
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push)	7.2	51.1% (no-push)	-105	-110	-1.2%	-VALUE
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push)	7.2	48.9% (no-push)	+105	-110	-3.5%	-VALUE

Totals value (1st 5 innings)

I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.

Market	Model proj (1st5)	Model win%	Fair odds	Assumed book	Edge	Value?
1st5 Over 3.5	4.0	56.5%	-130	-110	+4.1%	+VALUE
1st5 Under 3.5	4.0	43.5%	+130	-110	-8.9%	-VALUE

---

Pros for Yankees -120

• Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.

• Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.

• Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.

• Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.

• 7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(925) San Diego Padres at (926) Milwaukee Brewers: Moneyline	4:10pm EDT - Mar 21/2026

The PLAY: Milwaukee Brewers -102

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#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Randy Vásquez is the listed San Diego starter and Robert Gasser is the listed Milwaukee starter for March 21. MLB’s probable pitchers page has Vásquez at 0-1 with a 4.15 spring ERA and 11 strikeouts, while Gasser is 0-1 with a 9.95 spring ERA and 7 strikeouts..

Spring team stats show the Padres with the better batting line and run production: .276 AVG, 169 runs, .362 OBP, .491 SLG versus Milwaukee’s .265 AVG, 147 runs, .360 OBP, .427 SLG. The Padres have also scored more and allowed slightly more overall, which points more toward a higher-variance game but still a San Diego offensive edge.

Recent form is close, but San Diego has the slightly stronger five-game run on the board, going 3-2 in the listed last five, while Milwaukee is 2-3. Milwaukee’s bullpen/setup environment is hard to trust fully in a spring game, especially with active pitching injuries noted by ESPN and with spring usage inherently volatile, so I only make San Diego a modest favorite rather than a major one.

Why Brewers moneyline:

• Near coin-flip price point. My fair line is roughly Brewers -105, the matchup is still in the “live dog / basically toss-up” zone rather than a true Padres-control spot.

• Padres starter edge may be overstated by small spring samples. Randy Vásquez has the better current spring ERA/WHIP than Robert Gasser, but we are still talking about 13.0 spring innings for Vásquez and 6.1 for Gasser, which is not a very stable sample for pricing a full game.

• Milwaukee’s offense has enough on-base ability to hang around. Even with San Diego showing more spring power, Milwaukee owns a strong .360 OBP, very close to San Diego’s .362, which matters in spring games where traffic, bullpen walks, and bench depth can flip a game late.

• Brewers can still match up offensively in one game. Milwaukee’s lineup has produced this spring, and ESPN’s game page shows Jake Bauers with 4 HR and a .448 average entering the matchup, so there is at least some current-form thump in the Brewers side of the card.

• Padres have been better at home than away this spring. ESPN lists San Diego at 8-5 home but just 6-8-1 away, and this game is at Milwaukee’s spring park, so the Padres are not bringing their strongest split into the matchup.

• Brewers are battle-tested in tighter spring environments. Milwaukee came off an 8-7 loss to Arizona in a high-event game, which at least supports the case that their offense can stay competitive even when the pitching environment gets messy.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
JNPB	Rakuten Golden Eagles at Yomiuri Giants	1:00am EDT - Mar 21/2026

The PLAY: Yomiuri Giants -110

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Japanese Spring games AVAILABLE ON DRAFTKINGS!

Spencer Howard is confirmed for Yomiuri, but I could not verify Rakuten’s official announced starter from the accessible sources but it looks like Kose Itsuki. This is open-season play at Tokyo Dome on March 21, with the 2026 preseason ending March 22 and the regular season opening March 27, so I’m assuming slightly shorter starter leashes than a regular-season NPB game.

Outline of reasoning and calculations

1) Starting-point data I weighted most

• Giants at Tokyo Dome in 2025: 210 runs scored, 174 allowed in 64 games = 3.28 RS / 2.72 RA per game.

• Giants home in March/April 2025: 49 RS, 30 RA in 13 games = 3.77 / 2.31.

• Giants home on Saturdays in 2025: 54 RS, 34 RA in 14 games = 3.86 / 2.43.

• Rakuten away in 2025: 222 RS, 278 RA in 71 games = 3.13 / 3.92.

• Rakuten away in March/April 2025: 42 RS, 36 RA in 13 games = 3.23 / 2.77.

• Rakuten away on Saturdays in 2025: 33 RS, 64 RA in 13 games = 2.54 / 4.92.

• Rakuten at Tokyo Dome in 2025: 10 RS, 17 RA in 5 games = 2.00 / 3.40.

2) Baseline run model

• Giants scoring baseline
  Weighted blend of Giants home/Tokyo Dome/March-Saturday offense plus Rakuten road/Tokyo Dome prevention = 3.6575 runs.

• Rakuten scoring baseline
  Weighted blend of Rakuten road/March-Saturday offense plus Giants home/Tokyo Dome prevention = 2.698 runs.

3) Starter layer

• Howard: 2025 official NPB line was 9 appearances, 48.2 IP, 42 H, 11 BB, 36 K, 2.22 ERA. He is confirmed to start this game and is facing his former team Rakuten, which means there is no real 2025 official batter-vs-pitcher game sample of Howard against the current Rakuten lineup to lean on; that “familiarity” is mostly from being former teammates, not opponent BvP data.

• Kose probable-starter scenario: 2025 line was 19 G, 18 GS, 107.0 IP, 118 H, 27 BB, 76 K, 3.70 ERA. His last verified spring outing was March 15 vs Chunichi: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 5 K, 2 BB, 4 ER. Because Rakuten’s official 3/21 starter was not cleanly verifiable, I treated Kose as the most plausible fit but not as confirmed.

4) Bullpen layer

Historically, both clubs’ March/April bullpens were solid in 2025: Giants relievers had a 2.55 ERA, Rakuten relievers a 2.76 ERA. But the March 20 exhibition matters: Rakuten used 5 relievers after Shoji, while Yomiuri used 4 relievers after Takemaru. That pushes my full-game total a little higher than the first-5 total, especially late if Howard exits after 4-5 innings.

5) Lineup/form layer

I used the March 20 starters as the likely lineup core because I could not verify official March 21 lineups from the accessible sources. On March 20, Yomiuri started Cabbage, Matsumoto Go, Urata, Dalbec, Kishida, Nakayama, Sakamoto, Masuda, with the pitcher batting 9th; Rakuten started Nakajima, Kurokawa, Voit, McCusker, Murabayashi, Asamura, Muneyama, Gonzalez, Ota with the DH. In that same game, Asamura homered again, while Yomiuri’s preseason form indicators were strong for Kishida (.583) and Masuda (.667). Through March 20, the Giants were 9-4-1 in open-season play and Rakuten 3-9-5.

6) Head-to-head / park / travel adjustments

The 2025 Yomiuri-Rakuten Tokyo Dome set was low scoring: Rakuten won 2-0 on June 6 behind Howard, then Yomiuri won 2-0 on June 7 and 5-0 on June 8. That supports a modest total again. Tokyo Dome removes almost all meaningful outdoor-weather effect. Rakuten’s schedule also shows a Belluna-to-Tokyo road swing (3/17-18 at Belluna, 3/20-22 at Tokyo Dome), which is some travel but not a major fatigue spike. Because Yomiuri is home, there is also a small chance the bottom of the 9th is not played, which trims their full-game offensive ceiling slightly.

7) Final numerical adjustments

• Giants baseline: 3.66

• Rakuten baseline: 2.70

Projected score

Segment	Rakuten	giant
1st 5 innings	1.2	2.1
Full game	2.7	3.5

Projected starting-pitcher game lines

Pitcher	Team	IP	IS	H	K	BB
Itsuki	Rakuten	4 0/3	2	4	4	2
Spencer Howard	giant	4 2/3	1	4	5	1

Projected hitter lines

These are projected box-score-style medians for the likely starting lineups based on March 20 usage, so they will not sum perfectly to the decimal score projection above.

Giants

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Cabbage	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Matsumoto Tsuyoshi	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Shunsuke Urata	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Dalbeck	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Yukinori Kishida	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Zhongshan Lidu	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Hayato Sakamoto	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Riku Masuda	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
Howard (P)	2	0	0	0	0	0	2

Rakuten

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Daisuke Nakajima	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Kurokawa Fumiya	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Voight	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
McCusker	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Kazuki Murabayashi	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
Hideto Asamura	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
Rui Muneyama	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Gonzalez	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Hikaru Ota	3	0	1	0	0	0	0

Team	Projected win %	Projected fair odds	DraftKings today
giant	61.7%	-161	-110
Rakuten	38.3%	+161	+120

Bottom line

• 1st 5: Giants 2.1 – 1.2

• Full game: Giants 3.5 – 2.7

• Lean: Giants, with the bigger edge in the first 5 because Howard’s confirmed start is the cleanest pitcher input in the matchup.