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Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(621) St. Johns at (622) Duke: Total	7:10pm EDT - Mar 27/2026

The PLAY: Total Under 141.5 (-110)

Rick Pitino has led St. John’s to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999. Since January 3, the Johnnies have suffered just one defeat, but their offense is relatively lackluster, sitting in the 180s for effective field goal percentage and in the 170s for two-point percentage. Additionally, Pitino’s team ranks 192nd in three-point shooting, making only 33.3% of their shots from beyond the arc. Since 2016, NCAA tournament games from Round 3 forward are 74-48-1 to the Under (60.7%), while Sweet 16 games are 49-34 to the Under (59%) since 2014, including 30-20 UNDER (60%) since 2018. St. John’s advanced to the Sweet 16 by defeating the Jayhawks 67-65 in a game that went under the total. Since 2019, college basketball teams coming off a straight-up win and under are 128-88-1 to the Under (59.3%) versus opponents ranked #1 or #2 in their previous game. Let’s also note that No. 1 seeds are 60-40-1 to the Under (60%) from Round 3 forward in the NCAA Tournament, including 33-9 UNDER (78.6%) since 2019, going under by an average margin of 6.6 points per game. Similarly, since 2013, college basketball teams that played a game in which their largest lead was at least 14 points and the final score was below the total have gone under in 254 of 449 games (56.8%) from Game 34 forward. This trend has grown stronger since the 2020-21 season, with teams going under in 146 out of 245 games (59.6%). Finally, this situation is 70-47 to the Under (59.8%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2019. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 27.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(613) Illinois at (614) Houston: Spread	10:05pm EDT - Mar 26/2026

The PLAY: Illinois +2.5 (-102)

Illinois arrives in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament off a dominating 76-55 win over VCU, which is significant because college basketball underdogs coming off a game in which they allowed 60 points or fewer are 144-105-3 ATS (57.8%) in the NCAA Tournament. Similarly, NCAA Tournament teams entering off a game in which they allowed 55 points or fewer are 152-118-2 ATS (56.3%), including 81-49 ATS (62.3%) as underdogs. Houston ranks third in the nation in Points Per Game Allowed (62.2), but college basketball favorites allowing fewer than 63 points per game are just 91-118-2 ATS (43.5%) in NCAA Tournament affairs. Meanwhile, Illinois is one of the most reliable teams from the free-throw line, ranking fifth nationally at 78.4%. That metric is important because college basketball teams priced between -6 and +6 shooting 77% or better from the charity stripe are 48-36 ATS (57.1%) in the NCAA Tournament. Let’s also note that Big 12 Conference teams are 9-18 ATS (33.3%) in the Sweet 16 Round over the last twelve years, while Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS from the Sweet 16 forward. The Big Ten Conference has gone 34-19 ATS (64.2%) in the NCAA Tournament over the past three years, including 11-5 ATS (68.8%) this season, the best mark of any conference. Grab the points with the Illinois Fighting Illini as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 26.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(905) Arizona Diamondbacks at (906) Los Angeles Dodgers: Spread	8:30pm EDT - Mar 26/2026

The PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-118)

Los Angeles starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto worked five scoreless innings in his final spring training outing and will continue to keep the ball on the bottom of the zone against an overly aggressive Arizona lineup looking to hit fastballs and off-speed pitches left up in the zone. During Spring Training and last season, right-handed Diamondbacks’ hitters struggled to hit pitches low and away, batting .171 on pitches that barely clipped the outside part of the zone, and hitting .096 on pitches located outside the zone. Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater are 2707-1030 (72.4%; +2.2% ROI) and 2009-1521 RL (+2.7% ROI) in games with totals of eight or more runs, including 1831-646 (73.9%; +3.7% ROI) and 1443-1035 RL (+2.9% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2005, large MLB favorites are 1517-652 (69.9%; +1% ROI) and 1096-896 RL (+2.5% ROI) in Game 1 of a series, including 887-357 (71.3%; +1.7% ROI) and 707-535 RL (+3.4% ROI) since 2017, winning by an average margin of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2002, Opening Day MLB home favorites are 129-74 (63.5%; +5.7% ROI) and +8.1% ROI RL. The Dodgers fall into one of my strongest early-season MLB systems that is 97-29 (77%; +27.8% ROI) and 67-44 RL (+34.1% ROI) and invests on certain unbeaten favorites in the opening game of a series when facing teams that won fewer than 93 games the previous season. This situation is 49-9 (84.5%; +40% ROI) and 37-21 RL (+34.7% ROI) since 2016, winning by an average of +2.9 runs per game. Finally, the Dodgers are 164-71 (69.8%; +8.1% ROI) and 107-102 RL (+4.6% ROI) in home games with totals of nine or more runs, whereas the Diamondbacks are 8-22 (26.7%; -16.8% ROI) as large divisional road underdogs. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 26.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(617) Texas at (618) Purdue: Spread	7:10pm EDT - Mar 26/2026

The PLAY: Texas +7.5 (-110)

Texas reached the Sweet 16 Round by virtue of three consecutive upset wins over North Carolina State (68-66), BYU (79-71), and Gonzaga (74-68) as 1.5-point, 2.5-point, and 6.5-point underdogs, respectively. Those results are significant for three reasons. First, NCAA Tournament teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they covered the spread by double-digits are 71-49-2 ATS (59.2%). Second, NCAA Tournament teams coming off back-to-back upset wins as underdogs are 31-16 ATS (66%) from Round 3 forward. Third, NCAA Tournament underdogs coming off three or more consecutive ATS wins are 46-24-2 ATS (65.7%) from Round 3 out since 2012. Since 2012, NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 favorites of -5 or more are 19-27 ATS (41.3%), including 8-13 ATS (38.1%) since 2020, and have fallen short of market expectations by an average margin of 4.4 points per game. Purdue head coach Matt Painter has enjoyed success during the early stages of the NCAA Tournament, going 23-7 ATS in the Round of 64 and 32, but he’s just 5-7 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. Finally, Texas head coach Sean Miller has been an underdog in the NCAA Tournament fifteen times, and has gone 11-4 ATS in those contests, including a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in this year’s tournament. Grab the points with the Texas Longhorns as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 26.