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Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) New York Mets: Mitch Keller Outs | 4:10pm EDT - Mar 28/2026 |
The PLAY: Mitch Keller Outs Over 15.5 (111)
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last 2 seasons:
Mitch Keller |
NYM |
2-1, 2.21 ERA, 18 K in 3 appearances |
Bottom line: I project Mitch Keller for 17.2 outs against the Mets on Saturday, March 28, 2026. He’s listed as the Pirates’ starter in a 4:10 PM ET day game at Citi Field against David Peterson.
Calculation stack
1) All starts, 3/1/2025–3/28/2026 — weighted 30%
Keller made 32 starts in 2025 and averaged 5.51 innings per game, which is 16.5 outs per start.
2) Vs. Mets in that window — weighted 50%
Keller made two 2025 starts against the Mets:
May 13, 2025: 7.0 IP = 21 outs
June 27, 2025: 5.1 IP = 16 outs
That is 37 outs in 2 starts = 18.5 outs per start.
3) March starts in that window — weighted 20%
Keller’s March 2025 split shows 1 start, 6.0 IP, which is 18 outs.
Base weighted projection
Overall bucket: 16.5 × 30% = 5.0
Vs. Mets bucket: 18.5 × 50% = 9.3
March bucket: 18.0 × 20% = 3.6
Base weighted projection = 17.8 outs
Adjustments
Road split: Keller’s 2025 road split was 80.2 IP in 15 road starts = 16.0 outs/start, below his 16.5 overall average, so I dock -0.5 outs.
Day split: Keller’s 2025 day split was 66.2 IP in 12 day starts = 16.6 outs/start, basically neutral to his overall baseline, so I leave this at 0.0 outs.
Ballpark factor: 0.0 outs
Fatigue / build-up: Keller’s final spring outing on March 22 was 3 2/3 innings, but MLB also reported that Keller will be treated as a regular starter this season. I apply only a small -0.1 outs opening-week leash adjustment.
Final projection
17.8 base
- 0.5 road
+ 0.0 day
+ 0.0 park
- 0.1 build-up
Final projected outs: 17.2
That is 1.7 outs above the line of 15.5