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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (977) Pittsburgh Pirates at (978) Texas Rangers: F5 Team Total | 8:05pm EDT - Apr 22/2026 |
The PLAY: F5 Pittsburgh Pirates Total Over 1.5 (-152) Action
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PIT at TEX — 4/22/2026 Projection
Texas is the home favorite on the live board. The accessible market cluster was Rangers about -155 to -165, Pirates about +135 to +145, and the main total 8.0 to 8.5. One widely posted board showed u8.5 -118 and u8 -105. (espn.com) Globe Life Field is a run-suppressive environment in the current park-factor data, grading below neutral for runs over the 2024-2026 park-factor window.
Braxton Ashcraft enters at 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Jack Leiter enters at 1-1 with a 4.87 ERA. The probable-pitcher preview notes this is Ashcraft’s first MLB start in his home state, while Leiter is looking to rebound after a 7.71 ERA with 7 walks in his last 9 1/3 innings. At the same time, Ashcraft’s recent usage profile is stronger than a pure bulk-opener type: StatMuse surfaces 6.0 innings, 1 ER, 8 K on April 5 and 5.2 innings, 2 ER, 7 K on April 16. Reuters also noted Ashcraft’s six-inning, one-run outing in the Baltimore series.
Recent form is close, but not equal. Pittsburgh is 5-5 in its last 10 games with a .268 average and .671 OPS over that span. Texas has scored 46 runs in its last 10 with a .246/.346/.404/.750 slash. Texas took Tuesday’s opener 5-1, but broader reporting still describes the Rangers’ offense as inconsistent and prone to leaving runners on base.
Bullpen context favors Pittsburgh. The Pirates rank 11th in MLB in relief ERA over the last 10 games at 3.08. Texas sits lower; the team-level ERA ranking page places the Rangers around the middle of the pack over the last 10 games, and the relief ranking page places them in the lower half of the recent bullpen board. That matters because Leiter’s current leash is less secure than Ashcraft’s.
Projected Score
Split | PIT | TEX | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
Full game | 4.3 | 3.7 | 8.0 |