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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (911) Milwaukee Brewers at (912) Detroit Tigers | 1:10pm EDT - Apr 23/2026 |
The PLAY: Detroit Tigers -1 (-155) Action
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MIL at DET
Detroit is priced as a clear favorite because the starting-pitching gap is large. Tarik Skubal enters with a 2.08 ERA, 33 strikeouts, and 30.1 innings in 2026, plus a 7.0-inning, 0-run, 9-strikeout start against Milwaukee on April 14, 2025. Brandon Sproat enters with a 6.88 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and 17.0 innings in 2026; stretching the window back to March 1, 2025 gives a 5.73 ERA over 37.2 MLB innings.
The handedness split also leans Detroit. Milwaukee has just a .646 OPS and 23.1% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching in 2026, while Detroit has a .723 OPS versus right-handed pitching. That makes Skubal’s edge more bankable than Sproat’s recent bounce-back, even though Sproat’s last two outings were better than his first two.
Bullpen form narrows the gap slightly but does not flip the game. Milwaukee’s relief group has been stronger recently, sitting second in MLB by bullpen ERA over the last 10 games and at a 2.80 ERA over the last five. Detroit’s bullpen has been more middle-of-the-pack lately, around 16th by relief ERA over the last 10 games. That keeps Milwaukee live after the starters exit, but Skubal still creates the better first-five runway.
Run environment is modestly helpful but not explosive. Comerica has played near neutral to slightly hitter-friendly recently, with 2025 park factors around 101-102, and Thursday’s forecast is mild at roughly 69-74°F with light wind and little rain concern. That adds a small boost to carry, but not enough to overwhelm the Skubal effect.
Recent offense is basically even in raw runs, but Detroit has been more efficient. Both clubs have scored 48 runs over their last 10 games, yet Detroit owns a .751 OPS over that span while Milwaukee has been closer to .674. That supports a lower Milwaukee ceiling against an ace-level lefty and a slightly steadier Detroit scoring base against Sproat plus the middle innings.
The model starts from split-adjusted team offense, then applies starter quality, starter leash, bullpen quality, weather, park, and home-field/no-bottom-9th effects. The April adjustment trims overall scoring versus a flatter full-season expectation, while Skubal’s home/day shape and Milwaukee’s weak lefty split pull the first-five projection down hardest on the Brewers side.
Detroit 4.3, Milwaukee 2.8.
1st 5 innings: Detroit 2.6, Milwaukee 1.1.
Most likely game shape: Skubal controls the early game, Milwaukee’s bullpen keeps the final margin from getting too wide.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| KBO | (304615) Doosan Bears at (304616) Lotte Giants | 5:30am EDT - Apr 23/2026 |
The PLAY: Doosan Bears -1 (-140)
Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
For a limited time, get 6 full days of Tokyo Brandon All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.
You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from Tokyo Brandon throughout your access period.
6 days of Tokyo Brandon picks for the price of 3
Full access to all sports released
Includes any Top Rated 5% Best Bets.
Whether you’re stacking plays for the week ahead or locking in extended access, this special delivers maximum value for a short time only.
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Zach Logue starting for Doosan and Elvin Rodríguez for Lotte. Sajik’s game-page weather shows cool mid-teens °C, partly cloudy, with wind blowing out toward right field, while the broader Busan forecast also has a cool cloudy evening around 15°C / 59–60°F.
1st 5: Doosan 2.3 – 1.6
Full game: Doosan 4.6 – 3.7
Main reasons:
Logue’s verified 2025 run prevention vs Lotte was excellent.
Rodríguez is more volatile and less efficient so far in 2026.
Doosan has controlled the first two games of the series 6-2 and 9-1.
Lotte’s bullpen has been under more recent stress, while Doosan got better length on Wednesday.