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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Milwaukee Brewers | 2:10pm EDT - May 25/2026 |
The PLAY: Milwaukee Brewers -1 (-155) Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) Must Start
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STL @ MIL
Projected final score: MIL 4.3, STL 2.9
Probable starters are confirmed as Matthew Liberatore for STL and Jacob Misiorowski for MIL. Liberatore enters at 2-2, 4.70 ERA, 43 SO; Misiorowski enters at 4-2, 1.89 ERA, 88 SO. MIL is priced around -210 to -215, STL around +177 to +184, with the full-game total at 7.5.
STL season profile: 4.6 R/G, .242 AVG, 60 HR, 4.20 ERA, .254 opponent AVG. MIL season profile: 4.9 R/G, .246 AVG, 34 HR, 3.31 ERA, .220 opponent AVG.
Recent offense is closer than the moneyline implies: STL has 41 runs, .268 AVG, .342 OBP, .408 SLG, .750 OPS over its last 10 games, while MIL has 44 runs, .256 AVG, .330 OBP, .379 SLG, .709 OPS over its last 10.
Misiorowski’s May form is the biggest projection driver: over his last 7 starts he has a 1.33 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 60 K in 40.2 IP, and over his last 3 starts he has 19.0 IP, 0 ER, 29 K, 3 BB.
PROJECTED SCORE BOXSCORE
Market Window | STL | MIL | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
1st 5 Innings | 1.1 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
Full Game | 2.9 | 4.3 | 7.2 |
PROJECTED STARTING PITCHER BOXSCORE
Pitcher | Team | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matthew Liberatore | STL | 5.0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | 6.0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
Market | Consensus Odds / Line | Model Projection | Model Probability | Fair Odds | Edge vs Consensus | Value | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STL Moneyline | +184 | STL loses by 1.4 | 33.1% | +202 | -18 cents | No value | 2/5 |
MIL Moneyline | -210 | MIL by 1.4 | 66.9% | -202 | -8 cents | No value | 2/5 |
Full Game Over 7.5 | -115 | 7.2 total | 45.2% | +121 | -236 cents | No value | 3/5 |
Full Game Under 7.5 | -105 | 7.2 total | 54.8% | -121 | +16 cents | +Value | 3/5 |
1st 5 Over 3.5 | -115 | 3.3 total | 46.0% | +117 | -232 cents | No value | 3/5 |
1st 5 Under 3.5 | -105 | 3.3 total | 54.0% | -117 | +12 cents | +Value | 3/5 |
STL 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 | +105 | 1.1 | 37.0% | +170 | -65 cents | No value | 3/5 |
STL 1st 5 Team Total Under 1.5 | -125 | 1.1 | 63.0% | -170 | +45 cents | +Value | 3/5 |
MIL 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.0 | -120 | 2.2 | 53.0% | -113 | -7 cents | No value | 2/5 |
MIL 1st 5 Team Total Under 2.0 | +100 | 2.2 | 47.0% | +113 | -13 cents | No value | 2/5 |
TOKYO'S CLUTCH INDEX - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Team | Rank 1-30 | OPS |
|---|---|---|
STL | 9 | .831 |
MIL | 17 | .763 |
FINAL 1-30 RANKING CHART
Category | STL | MIL |
|---|---|---|
Starting Pitcher ERA + WHIP Rank | Matthew Liberatore: 27 | Jacob Misiorowski: 3 |
Bullpen Last 10 Days ERA + WHIP Rank | 21 | 16 |
Lineup Last 10 Days Runs + wOBA Rank | 12 | 14 |