David Hess is dialed in and ready to attack this afternoon’s board with a strong MLB total that jumps off the page. The matchup lines up cleanly, the metrics point to real value, and this number won’t stay soft for long. Even better — this afternoon’s play is just $7.00. This one is built to cash.
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (973) Toronto Blue Jays at (974) Chicago Cubs: Total | 2:20pm EDT - Jun 21/2026 |
The PLAY: Total Over 7.0 (-114) Action
The Over 7 is the right read because this matchup has already shown its scoring ceiling, and the underlying pitching splits point to more of the same. The first two games produced 18 and 14 runs, and Chicago’s last 12 home games have averaged a massive 10.58 runs per game, which tells you how hitter‑friendly Wrigley has been in this stretch. Shota Imanaga has been excellent overall, but his home ERA sits at 4.75, and his starts here have averaged 9.1 runs — including 11.6 per game across his last five at Wrigley. Dylan Cease has been better on the road with a 3.34 ERA, but even his road starts have averaged 8.33 runs, and that number jumps to 9.5 over his last four away from home. Chicago averages 4.80 runs per game at home, Toronto has scored 4.38 per game over its last eight, and both bullpens are in shaky form — especially the Cubs, who carry a 7.50 ERA over their last five games. With the park playing big, both starters in high‑run splits, and both offenses producing, this total is simply too low for the environment.