David Hess has a strong MLB total locked in for tonight, and this matchup gives him exactly the kind of angle he loves to attack. The number fits his read, the metrics line up clean, and the value is wide open for anyone ready to fire. At just $7.00, this is a sharp, high‑confidence total built to hit.
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Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (929) Miami Marlins at (930) Oakland Athletics: Total | 9:40pm EDT - Jul 4/2026 |
The PLAY: Total Over 11.0 (-115) Action
The Over 11 has a clean path because everything about this matchup points to another high‑scoring game, and neither pitching staff is in any shape to slow things down. Last night’s matchup produced 17 runs, and Sacramento home games have now averaged 11.47, with the first four games of this homestand sitting at 12.5. Miami’s road trip has turned into a slugfest — their last five have averaged 15.6 runs — and both teams enter with shaky pitching across the board. Sandy Alcantara’s road ERA has ballooned to 5.27, and he’s been even worse lately with a 5.84 ERA in his last five road starts, which averaged 12.6 runs. Aaron Civale has been a complete liability, carrying a 10.29 ERA over his last five and a 6.83 ERA at home; his last two home starts alone saw him give up 13 earned in six innings, backed by a bullpen with a 6.49 ERA at home. Miami’s pen hasn’t been any better, posting a 7.32 ERA over its last five. With both offenses capable of getting to five runs, two struggling rotations, two overworked bullpens, and a park that’s been producing double‑digit totals nightly, this matchup has all the ingredients for another game that clears the number.