David Hess has a big MLB total circled for tonight, and the matchup gives him the kind of clean, actionable edge he loves to hammer. The number lines up with his read, the metrics support the play, and the value is sitting right there for the taking. At just $7.00, this one comes built to cash.
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (961) San Diego Padres at (962) Los Angeles Dodgers: Total | 7:20pm EDT - Jul 5/2026 |
The PLAY: Total Over 9.5 (-112) Action
The Over 9.5 makes sense because both starters are carrying profiles that invite traffic, and the recent run environment around this matchup has already shown it can explode. Dodger Stadium hasn’t played especially high‑scoring this season, but game one of this series still produced 19 runs, and tonight’s pitching matchup is far weaker than what we saw in the last two games. JP Sears is making just his third start of the year, and the first two were rough — a 6.67 ERA overall, including six earned allowed in 4.2 innings in his lone road outing. His career ERA sits at 4.63 across more than 100 starts, so this isn’t a one‑off. Emmett Sheehan has been even shakier, posting a 5.81 ERA over his last seven starts and a 5.11 ERA in eight home starts, with his last two at Dodger Stadium combining for 31 total runs allowed. The Padres hit better on the road, the Dodgers average 4.58 at home, and both teams enter with shaky run‑prevention — L.A. has allowed 25 runs in Sheehan’s last two home starts, and San Diego has given up 9.13 per game over its last eight. With two vulnerable starters, two offenses capable of piling on, and recent games already showing how quickly this matchup can get out of hand, the Over has a clear path.