Tom Macrina
Event: (459) Cincinnati Bengals at (460) Minnesota Vikings
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 21, 2025 1:00 PM EDT
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Total Under 42.5 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-0, 1-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
Week 3
Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis Betting Trends Vikings: 6-2 ATS as home favorites since 2024
Bengals: 1-4 ATS in games without Joe Burrow since 2023
Game Preview
Initially projected as a clash of offensive firepower featuring LSU alumni Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson, this matchup has shifted dramatically due to injuries. With key absences on both sides, expect a gritty, low-scoring battle dominated by defenses and backup quarterbacks.
Recent Performances
Bengals: Narrowly escaped Jacksonville 31-27 in Week 2, sealed by a last-second touchdown.
Vikings: Fell 22-6 to Atlanta, plagued by offensive struggles and turnovers.
Injury Impact
Bengals: Joe Burrow (Grade 3 turf toe, Week 2) is sidelined for 3+ months. Jake Browning takes over, showing promise in relief (18/23, 213 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs last week). Browning previously kept Cincinnati competitive in 2023, narrowly missing the playoffs. The offense remains potent with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the defense ranks average (16th in points allowed).
Vikings: Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy (ankle sprain, Week 2) is doubtful. McCarthy struggled (under 160 yards per start, 2 INTs last week), so veteran Carson Wentz steps in. Wentz’s 2024 Rams stint showed flashes (89.1 passer rating) but inconsistency (4 INTs in 5 games). Minnesota’s defense, elite against the pass (5th in points allowed in 2024), forced 4 turnovers in Week 2 despite the loss. Justin Jefferson could exploit Cincinnati’s secondary, though Wentz’s limited mobility caps the offense’s ceiling.
Key Matchup Analysis
Minnesota’s defense thrives on confusing quarterbacks (3rd in takeaways since 2023). Browning, pressured on 22% of dropbacks, lacks Burrow’s escapability, making him vulnerable to Flores’ aggressive scheme. Conversely, Wentz benefits from Jefferson’s elite play (4th in PFF receiving grade) and a revamped offensive line but struggles with consistency. The Vikings’ superior coaching and defensive edge (5th in points allowed) should stifle Cincinnati’s attack, while the Bengals’ middling defense may bend against Jefferson
.Prediction
This shapes up as a defensive slugfest, with both offenses hampered by backup QBs. Minnesota’s home-field advantage, Flores’ scheme, and Jefferson’s matchup against Cincinnati’s secondary tilt the scales. Expect a low-scoring, turnover-heavy game.
Best Bet: Under 42.5 points (-110)
Defenses dominate in a punter’s duel, with neither backup QB sustaining drives against stout pass defenses.
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The Gold Sheet
Event: (469) Denver Broncos at (470) Los Angeles Chargers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 21, 2025 4:05 PM EDT
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-110)
The Chargers won-and-covered both meetings last season with both games going over their respective total. This will be LA's first home game of the season. We certainly have some concerns about the Chargers' health, travel and rest disadvantage, but when it comes to the on-the-field product, they have simply performed better than Denver thus far. Already with two division wins under its belt, LA could put the AFC West in a chokehold with another win on Sunday afternoon. Sean Payton took the high road after the Broncos' controversial loss to the Colts, saying the officials made the correct call and it was his fault for using an aggressive field goal block on the final play of the game. Denver coulda-shoulda-woulda won that game, but Indianapolis still out-gained the Broncos by 149 yards. The Colts out-gained the Broncos by +1.1 yards per play and generated 26 first downs without ever sending the punter on the field. That has to be concerning for Coach Payton considering the Chargers' offense is built very similar to the Colts' offense with a mobile quarterback and a variety of receivers that are effective in both the short and deep passing game. Bo Nix hasn't looked settled into his sophomore season, and things are only going to get more confusing against Jim Harbaugh's defense. Ask Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes about their experience against that unit over the first two weeks. Play on LA
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Ben Burns
Event: (455) Las Vegas Raiders at (456) Washington Commanders
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 21, 2025 1:00 PM EDT
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Washington Commanders -163
With Jayden Daniels potentially out, we're able to get the Commanders at a far more reasonable price than we otherwise would have. While it would be preferred if Daniels could play, the Commanders are fully capable of winning this game with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. In parts of three games the Commanders last season, Mariota completed 34 of 44 passes for 364 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. He also had 18 carries for 92 yards and one TD. The Commanders play with extra rest; they last played on Thursday, September 11th. The Raiders, on the other hand, play on a short week, as they last played on Monday night. They've already gone from the Eastern Time Zone to the West Coast and now they're back east again. The Commanders were 7-2 at home last season and they're already 1-0 here this season. With or without Daniels, I expect Washington to finish on top.
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Sniper Wes
Event: (301) Miami Dolphins at (302) Buffalo Bills
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 18, 2025 8:15 PM EDT
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Total Over 49.0 (-110)
We get the hapless Dolphins here at 0-2, traveling to Buffalo who also sits at 0-2. Mike McDaniel is already on the hot seat in a big way — his team has given up exactly 33 points in both games (to the Colts in Week 1 and the Patriots in Week 2). That’s 66 points allowed through two weeks, and while they did put up 27 against New England, one of those scores came on a punt return. That means this “offensive wizard” has only produced three offensive touchdowns in two games — not a great look.
As for Buffalo, they’ve put up 71 points through two weeks, showing they can move the ball with ease. The defense, however, has cracks — remember, they gave up 40 to the Ravens in Week 1. That’s why this matchup feels like a “do or die” spot for Miami. Expect McDaniel to empty the bag here, and Tyreek Hill, who has yet to find the end zone, should be a focal point early and often.
The Bills will do their thing on offense, and Miami will have to punch back. The total is set high, but it’s high for a reason. We like the Over here in Buffalo.
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