Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(987) New York Yankees at (988) San Francisco Giants: Moneyline	8:05pm EDT - Mar 25/2026

The PLAY: New York Yankees -120

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_______

Offense baseline

• Yankees: 5.24 R/G

• Giants: 4.35 R/G

• League run environment proxy: AL 4.27, NL 4.51

  • Offense index (approx):

    • NYY: 1.194

    • SFG: 0.991

Starters

Max Fried (NYY, LHP)

• 2025: 2.86 ERA; Away 3.28, Night 2.90

• 2024 vs SF: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)

• 2025 home/away: Home 3.10 ERA, Away 3.36 ERA

• 2025 day/night: Night 3.36 ERA

  batter-vs-pitcher H2H (since 2024)

• Fried vs Giants: 3 ER / 5.1 IP (tiny sample)

• Webb vs Yankees: 7 ER / 12.0 IP (tiny sample)

Projected lineups

• Yankees: Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Rice, Stanton, Chisholm, McMahon, Caballero, Wells

• Giants: Ramos, Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Bader, Eldridge, Schmitt, Bailey

---

1) Starter expected innings (March workload)

Because this is late March and both pitchers have March samples that are short:

• Webb: 5.0 IP

• Fried: 5.1 IP

2) Build “game-context” RA9 for each starter

Fried context RA9

• Context base: average of Away (3.28) and Night (2.90) ⇒ 3.09

• Small March bump = 3.24

• H2H RA9 vs SF / Blend = 3.65

Webb context RA9

• Context base: average of Home (3.10) and Night (3.36) ⇒ 3.23

• Tiny March bump: = 3.29

• H2H RA9 vs NYY / Blend = 3.68

3) Park/weather/travel adjustments

• Travel penalty to NYY bats: I applied -3% to NYY run creation.

• Weather/park: mild cool-evening suppression factor (0.97) typical of SF night baseball. (This is an assumption, not a sourced fact.)

4) Convert to runs (starter + bullpen)

Bullpens: because “last 30 days” for late-March isn’t reliably anchorable today, generic bullpen strength assumptions (as the season progresses this will be clearer)

---

Projection results

Full game projected score

• NYY 4.0 — SFG 3.2

• Projected total: 7.2

1st 5 innings projected score

• NYY 2.2 — SFG 1.8

• 1st5 projected total: 4.0

---

Starting pitcher boxscore

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Max Fried (NYY)	5.1	2	4	6	2
Logan Webb (SFG)	5.0	2	5	5	1

---

Hitter boxscore projection

NYY hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Trent Grisham	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
Aaron Judge	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Cody Bellinger	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Rice	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Giancarlo Stanton	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Ryan McMahon	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
José Caballero	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Austin Wells	4	0	1	0	0	0	1

SFG hitters

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Heliot Ramos	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
Willy Adames	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Matt Chapman	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Harrison Bader	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Bryce Eldridge	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0

---

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline value vs book

Team	Model win%	Fair ML	Book ML	Book implied%	Edge (Model–Book)	Value?
NYY	62.1%	-164	-115	53.5%	+8.6%	+VALUE
SFG	37.9%	+164	+105	48.8%	-10.9%	-VALUE

Totals value (Full game O/U 7)

Model total = 7.2 → very close to 7 (and 7 is a push number).

Market	Model proj	Model win%	Fair odds	Book odds	Edge	Value?
Over 7 (8+ wins, 7 push)	7.2	51.1% (no-push)	-105	-110	-1.2%	-VALUE
Under 7 (0–6 wins, 7 push)	7.2	48.9% (no-push)	+105	-110	-3.5%	-VALUE

Totals value (1st 5 innings)

I don’t have a posted DK 1st5 line this far out, so I’m using the common pairing 1st5 O/U 3.5 (-110/-110) purely for comparison.

Market	Model proj (1st5)	Model win%	Fair odds	Assumed book	Edge	Value?
1st5 Over 3.5	4.0	56.5%	-130	-110	+4.1%	+VALUE
1st5 Under 3.5	4.0	43.5%	+130	-110	-8.9%	-VALUE

---

Pros for Yankees -120

• Price vs my fair line: -120 implies about 54.5% win probability. My model has NYY around 62% (fair about -164), so the number is cheap relative to the projection.

• Offensive ceiling edge: Even in a low-total environment, the Yankees’ lineup projects to create more “multi-run” innings (one big swing + traffic) than SF, which matters when totals are ~7 and every run is precious.

• Starter matchup isn’t a disadvantage: Webb is excellent at home, but Fried’s away/night profile + H2H slice doesn’t scream “avoid.” My projection has both starters around ~2 ER through ~5 innings, so the bet isn’t leaning on one pitcher melting down.

• Late-game leverage: In tight, low-scoring games, the better bullpen/high-K arms and pinch-hit depth tend to matter more. I generally rate NYY’s late-inning options as the side more likely to convert a 1-run edge into a win.

• 7 total = fewer “randomness runs”: Lower totals reduce the chance a weaker team wins via 9–7 chaos; games become more about pitching, defense, and a couple high-leverage ABs—areas that typically favor the higher-talent roster.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
JBL	(301223) Brave Thunders at (301224) Nagoya Fighting Eagles: Total	2:35am EDT - Mar 14/2026

The PLAY: Total Over 160.5 (-110)

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Team / player / injury chart

Category	Brave Thunders	Nagoya Fighting Eagles
Points per game	75.5	80.5
Points allowed per game	84.1	83.1
Top scorer	Rosco Allen 14.3	Sean O'Mara 14.7
2nd leading scorer	Dusan Ristic 13.0	Jamorko Pickett 13.1
Assist leader	Ryusei Shinoyama 4.9	Narito Namizato 4.9
Top rebounder	Dusan Ristic 8.2	Sean O'Mara 10.4
2nd rebounder	Emanuel Terry 6.3	Jeremy Jones 5.0
Injuries	No Kawasaki player on official B.League injury list dated March 13, 2026	No FE Nagoya player on official B.League injury list dated March 13, 2026

Game 1 / Game 2 back-to-back pattern

For FE Nagoya, recent two-game sets have been pretty swingy. Against Yokohama, they lost 85-86 and then 78-87, meaning Game 2 got a bit uglier offensively for them. Against San-en, they lost 91-95 and then 69-91, a much lower-scoring and much worse Game 2. Against Ryukyu, they lost 85-88 and then won 73-61, another clear drop in total scoring from Game 1 to Game 2. The working pattern is that FE Nagoya’s Game 2 has often trended lower-scoring and more adjustment-heavy, not looser.

For Kawasaki, the same-opponent pattern is also messy but generally supports the idea that Game 1 is the cleaner raw read. Against SR Shibuya they won 81-79 and then lost 58-73, a sharp drop in Game 2 offense. Against Ryukyu they lost 55-82 and then 77-91, with Game 2 offense improving but still not enough to flip the result. Against Shiga they won 84-72 and then lost 77-80, which again shows the second game getting more volatile and less predictable. So for this matchup, Game 1 is the place I trust baseline team quality more than Game 2 adjustment chaos.

Last 10 overall form

FE Nagoya has been stumbling. Their recent result set includes losses to Ryukyu, losses to Yokohama, losses to San-en, and the March 11 loss to Nagoya D, with fewer stabilizing wins than you’d want from a home favorite. Kawasaki’s broader season is worse, but their last chunk has at least included wins over Shiga and a more competitive mix than their full-season record suggests. That said, Kawasaki still comes in at 10-32, and its season-long defense remains a serious problem at 84.1 points allowed per game.

Player vs. player matchups

Matchup	Evaluation
Ryusei Shinoyama vs Narito Namizato	Pretty even stylistically, but slight FE Nagoya edge because Namizato is steering the better offensive structure and gets more consistent interior support from O’Mara.
Rosco Allen vs Jamorko Pickett	Slight Kawasaki edge as pure scoring burden, but Pickett benefits from the stronger ecosystem. Allen has to do more self-creation on a weaker team, which is a tax on efficiency.
Dusan Ristic vs Sean O'Mara	Clear FE Nagoya edge. O’Mara leads this game in rebounding profile and gives Nagoya a more reliable interior anchor on both ends.
Emanuel Terry vs Jeremy Jones	Slight FE Nagoya edge in versatility. Terry is a real athletic piece, but Jones fits a more functional supporting role around Nagoya’s main actions.
Bench / lineup balance	FE Nagoya edge. Kawasaki’s bench scoring and overall structure have not held up across the season, and the defensive floor keeps collapsing against decent opponents.

over 160.5:

Both teams’ season profiles point to a number right around or slightly above this line. Kawasaki averages 75.5 points scored and 84.1 allowed, while FE Nagoya averages 80.5 scored and 83.1 allowed. That’s the classic recipe for a total that can drift into the low 160s without anybody turning into a flamethrower wizard..

Kawasaki’s defense is the fattest target in the matchup. They just gave up 89 to Gunma on March 11, and FE Nagoya does not need elite efficiency to do its part if Kawasaki keeps leaking points at that level..

Game 1 helps the over case more than Game 2. In same-opponent back-to-backs, the second game is often where pace and shot quality get strangled by adjustments. Game 1 is usually the more “honest” version of each team’s baseline offense before coaches start fiddling with every knob like caffeinated goblins. That matters here because FE Nagoya and Kawasaki both have recent two-game sets where Game 2 became uglier or less efficient.

The recent head-to-head history is not screaming under. The last four meetings were 82-73, 88-77, 73-66, and 94-80. Two of those four cleared 160.5, and one landed at 155, so the matchup history shows this pairing can get into the right neighborhood when Nagoya controls the game and Kawasaki contributes enough.

Nagoya’s home/record context and Kawasaki’s road context also support an over path through game script. FE Nagoya are 6-15 home and Kawasaki at 5-12 away, which is not directly a total stat, but it suggests neither side is especially good at imposing comfortable control. Sloppy stretches, late fouling, and loose defensive possessions become more plausible in games between flawed teams.

The clean over script is:
FE Nagoya gets into the mid-80s, Kawasaki reaches the high 70s.
Something like 84-78 or 85-77 gets you there.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(945) Arizona Diamondbacks at (946) Kansas City Royals: Moneyline	9:05pm EDT - Mar 13/2026

The PLAY: Arizona Diamondbacks -108

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_______

Diamondbacks -105:

1. The probable starter edge is on Arizona.
The listed matchup for this spring game is Merrill Kelly vs. Michael Wacha. Wacha has a solid spring line so far, but Merrill Kelly is the more established, higher-trust starter in a vacuum, and Arizona at a near-pick’em price is easier to stomach when the listed arm is Kelly..

2. -105 is basically asking Arizona to be only a hair better.
At -105, the D-backs need to win about 51.2% of the time to break even. Kansas City -115 implies about 53.5%. That gap is tiny, and in spring training tiny gaps get swallowed by bullpen chaos, prospect innings, and lineups made of half-regulars and half-baseball goblins.

3. Kansas City is still dragging a weak spring record into this game.
The Royals probable page lists this matchup with Arizona 8-12 and Kansas City 6-12 entering the game. Spring records are noisy, but if one side is going to be favored, Kansas City’s résumé is not exactly begging for it..

4. Arizona’s current spring form is ugly, but that may already be baked into the price.
Arizona just got blasted 13-2 by Colorado, and that game included 12 free passes from the D-backs staff. That kind of stink bomb can shade the next number a bit, which is exactly when a near-pick’em becomes more interesting if the listed starter is still a quality veteran like Kelly.

5. Kansas City still has WBC-related lineup leakage.
Royals coverage notes the club has been missing key players such as Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino because of the World Baseball Classic. In spring, absences like that matter more than usual because depth gets stress-tested fast.

6. The Royals’ favorite price looks a little logo-driven.
Michael Wacha has a strong early spring stat line, which explains some KC respect, but not enough for me to want the Royals as a favorite over a Kelly-led Arizona side at basically even money. The cleaner betting logic is that Arizona needs only a very modest edge to justify -105, and that bar is easier to clear than asking KC to justify favorite status.

My lean: Arizona -105 over Kansas City -115..
Not a giant edge, but of the two prices, Arizona is the saner side. Near-pick’em spring games are exactly where I’d rather side with the team offering the slightly cheaper ticket and the sturdier listed starter..

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(943) Houston Astros at (944) St. Louis Cardinals: Moneyline	6:05pm EDT - Mar 13/2026

The PLAY: St. Louis Cardinals 120

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#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

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_______

Cardinals +114:

1. The listed starter matchup is closer than the price suggests.
For the current Astros-Cardinals spring matchup on the official Astros probable page, the listed starters are Kai-Wei Teng for Houston and Kyle Leahy for St. Louis. Teng has the better spring line so far — 3.18 ERA, 4 SO versus Leahy’s 5.19 ERA, 9 SO — but this is not some giant ace-vs-gas-can situation that screams lay road chalk in March.

2. St. Louis has the better spring record right now.
The same MLB probable-pitchers page shows Cardinals 10-8 and Astros 7-8 for this matchup. Spring records are noisy little swamp creatures, but if Houston is the favorite anyway, St. Louis at plus money gets more interesting.

3. Houston is still sorting out a crowded, unsettled rotation picture.
MLB’s projected 2026 team outlook says the Astros are likely to use a six-man rotation early and still have a lot of competition for the final spots, including McCullers, Arrighetti, Ryan Weiss, Colton Gordon, AJ Blubaugh, and Nate Pearson. That kind of pitching shuffle adds uncertainty, which is not ideal when you’re laying -135 in a spring game.

4. St. Louis is also experimenting, but that can help in spring.
MLB’s Cardinals rotation piece says their staff is unusually unsettled, with spring functioning like a broad competition and the club essentially “throwing a lot of pitchers at the wall to see what sticks.” In regular season, that ambiguity can be scary. In spring, it can be useful, because games often become depth contests by the middle innings anyway.

5. The price math favors the dog more than the favorite.
+114 implies roughly a 46.7% break-even win rate. -135 implies about 57.4%. For an exhibition game with short starter outings and bullpen roulette, I do not see enough separation between these clubs to justify Houston needing to win at that kind of clip.

6. Road spring favorites are usually where value goes to die wearing expensive shoes.
Houston may be the slightly likelier winner on paper because Teng’s current spring numbers are cleaner, but the combination of Astros rotation uncertainty, Cardinals better current spring record, and plus-money on the home side makes St. Louis the more appealing ticket.