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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (961) New York Yankees at (962) Tampa Bay Rays: F5 Total | 1:40pm EDT - Apr 12/2026 |
The PLAY: F5 Total Under 4.5 (-125) Action
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Time to put your things down and take a Schlit. Two excellent pitchers vs batters they dominate. 4.5 seems way too high.
NYY at TBR — 4/12/2026 projection
There is one major note before the model: the official game pages still list Cam Schlittler vs. Drew Rasmussen for April 12, but there is also a same-day report that Rasmussen was moved to the family medical emergency list. The projection below follows the requested/posted matchup of Schlittler vs. Rasmussen, with confidence reduced because Tampa Bay’s final starter could still change.
Projected full game: Yankees 4.1, Rays 3.6
Projected first 5 innings: Yankees 2.4, Rays 1.8
Why the model lands there
New York has the weaker team batting line overall so far, but the Yankees have still scored 4.38 runs per game and own a .720 OPS vs right-handed pitching. Tampa Bay has been the better pure hitting team on the season at 4.62 runs per game with a .713 OPS, and the Rays just beat New York 5-3 on April 10. That narrows the gap offensively, but it does not erase the starting-pitching edge the Yankees get in this specific posted matchup.
Schlittler’s current 2026 surface stats are excellent: 2-0, 1.62 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 16.2 IP, 22 K, 0 BB on the official matchup page. The head-to-head sample provided against Tampa Bay since 2025 is also strong overall: 11.0 innings, 3 earned runs, 13 strikeouts, including a dominant 6.2-inning, 1-hit, 0-run outing at Tampa Bay on August 20, 2025. That combination supports a working expectation around 5 2/3 innings with high strikeout efficiency but still some caution due to his limited MLB sample.
Rasmussen’s posted 2026 line is also strong at 1.80 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 10.0 IP, 10 K, 1 BB, and his 2025-26 head-to-head sample against New York is meaningful: 16.2 innings, 5 earned runs, 18 strikeouts across three starts. That points to real Yankees suppression, especially early in games. The model still gives New York a slight edge because the Yankees’ current split vs right-handers is better than Tampa Bay’s current split versus top-end righties, and because Rasmussen may not be fully stretched if he does start after the off-field absence. Working expectation is about 5.0 innings.
Recent bullpen form leans New York. Over the last 10 games, the Yankees’ bullpen ERA is 3.16, seventh-best in MLB, while Tampa Bay’s relief group ranks lower at 18th in the same StatMuse leaderboard. New York has scored 44 runs in its last 10 games, while Tampa Bay is 5-5 in its last 10 with a .224 team average over that stretch. That late-game difference is enough to swing the model from roughly even after five innings to a narrow Yankees edge by the final score.
Tampa Bay does not get the “returning home from a road trip the day before” deduction. The Rays were already home in this series on April 10 and remain home for April 12, so no flat-spot adjustment was applied.
Score construction
Factor | NYY | TBR |
|---|---|---|
Baseline offense | 4.4 | 4.6 |
April / recent-form adjustment | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Away/home and park context | -0.1 | +0.1 |
Starter matchup | +0.2 | -0.5 |
Bullpen adjustment | +0.2 | -0.3 |
No bottom 9th / venue trim | -0.5 | -0.2 |
Projected runs | 4.1 | 3.6 |
These are model adjustments built from the current team, pitcher, split, and market context above.
Projected boxscore values
First 5 innings
Team | Projected runs |
|---|---|
NYY | 2.4 |
TBR | 1.8 |
Full game
Team | Projected runs |
|---|---|
NYY | 4.1 |
TBR | 3.6 |
Projected starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Schlittler (NYY) | 5 2/3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) | 5 0/3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
Projected hitter chart
Yankees
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ben Rice | 4.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
Cody Bellinger | 4.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
Aaron Judge | 4.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
Austin Wells | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Paul Goldschmidt | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
J.C. Escarra | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Anthony Volpe / José Caballero slot | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Rays
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yandy Díaz | 4.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Jonathan Aranda | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
Junior Caminero | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
Chandler Simpson | 4.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
Brandon Lowe | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Richie Palacios | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Taylor Walls | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
Ben Williamson | 3.8 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
Catcher/DH slot | 3.8 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
These hitter lines are tied to the current active-roster core on both clubs and the posted game context; the Yankees’ bottom-of-order projection is less certain because Anthony Vol-piss is nearing activation.
Wager & Probability Analysis
Moneyline
Using the projected score NYY 4.1, TBR 3.6:
Team | Model Win % | Fair Odds | Consensus Odds | Consensus − Fair | Value | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NYY | 55.8% | -126 | -143 | -17 cents | No value | 2 |
TBR | 44.2% | +126 | +119 | -7 cents | No value | 2 |
Full-game total
Using projected total 7.7 against market 7.5:
Bet | Model Prob. | Fair Odds | Consensus Odds | Consensus − Fair | Value | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 7.5 | 51.5% | -106 | -112 | -6 cents | No value | 1 |
Under 7.5 | 48.5% | +106 | -108 to -110 range | -14 to -16 cents | No value | 1 |
First 5 innings total
A clean machine-readable consensus F5 line for this exact posted Sunday matchup was not surfaced in the accessible results. Model-only fair read:
Market | Model Total |
|---|---|
First 5 total | 4.2 |
Bullpen last 10 days
Team | Bullpen ERA | MLB rank |
|---|---|---|
NYY | 3.16 | 7th |
TBR | Higher than NYY, rank shown as 18th in relief leaderboard | 18th |
Lineup run production last 10 days
Team | Runs last 10 | Status |
|---|---|---|
NYY | 44 | Slightly better recent run production |
TBR | Mid-pack recent scoring, 5-5 last 10 | Slightly lower |