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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| JNPB | (304123) Orix Buffaloes at (304124) Rakuten Gold. Eagles: Moneyline | 12:00am EDT - May 14/2026 |
The PLAY: Orix Buffaloes -130
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Orix ML
I make Orix the better side because the starter gap is real, Rakuten’s offense is ice cold, and Orix’s late bullpen is more trustworthy. But because Orix’s own offense has not exactly been a flamethrower recently, I don’t want to lay a big number.
Bet it at: about -135 or better.
Pass if: Orix drops below 1.70 / about -143.
1. Starter edge: clear Orix
Sean Hjelle has been excellent: 5 games, 1-1, 1.16 ERA, 31 IP, 21 H, 7 BB, 23 K. He has also already faced Rakuten once this season and went 6 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 ER in a 4-0 Orix loss. That is a legit quality-start profile, not just lucky ERA fluff.
José Ureña is more hittable: 6 games, 1-2, 4.06 ERA, 31 IP, 34 H, 13 BB, 22 K. His recent starts are also shaky: 6 IP/3 R, 5 IP/5 R, 4 IP/4 R.
Starter lean: Orix by a lot.
2. Recent form: Rakuten offense is the big red flag
Rakuten has lost 5 straight NPB games, and they have scored under 2.5 runs in each of those 5 games. Their last five scores: 0, 1, 2, 2, 2. That is ugly-ugly, not cute-ugly.
Orix has not been a monster offensively either — recent scores include 2, 0, 0, 4, 3 — but they are 3-2 over the last five and just beat Rakuten 2-0.
Recent form lean: Orix, mostly because Rakuten cannot score.
3. Batters / lineup matchup
Rakuten has a few dangerous bats, but the lineup is thin right now. Ryosuke Tatsumi is the clear table-setter at .294 AVG / .399 OBP, Hideto Asamura is still useful at .257 / .345 OBP, and Itsuki Murabayashi leads them with 17 RBI. But Luke Voit has been brutal at .136 AVG / .212 OBP, and several regulars are sitting in the low-.200s or below.
Orix’s lineup is better balanced: Ryoma Nishikawa is at .293, Haruto Watanabe is .295 / .382 OBP with speed, Ryo Ota is .271 / .353 OBP with 18 RBI, Tomoya Mori has 4 HR, and Yuma Mune has 5 HR. It is not a huge offense, but it has more paths to scratch out 3-4 runs.
Batting lean: Orix slightly-to-moderately.
4. Bullpen edge: small Orix lean
Orix’s late-game structure is strong. Andrés Machado has 12 saves and a 1.80 ERA, Ren Mukunoki has 10 holds and a 1.84 ERA, and Soichiro Yamazaki is at 3.00 ERA. Perdomo has been bad, but he does not need to be trusted in the highest leverage here.
Rakuten’s top arms are good too: Shoma Fujihira has 8 saves and a 0.64 ERA, Ren Kajiya is at 1.84, and Sung Chia-Hao is at 1.80. The issue is the depth: Nishigaki is at 5.93, Uchi is at 6.14, and Ureña is less likely than Hjelle to hand over a clean lead in the 7th.
Both pens should be rested enough because the previous matchup was May 12. Orix used Kuri 6.2, Yoshida 0.1, Mukunoki 1, Machado 1; Rakuten used Shoji 6, Nishigaki 1, Kajiya 1, Uchi 1.
Bullpen lean: Orix small.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers: Spread | 10:10pm EDT - May 13/2026 |
The PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115) Action
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SFG @ LAD — 5/13/2026
Current matchup: SFG 17-24, 7-12 away; LAD 24-17, 13-9 home. Probable starters: Robbie Ray, 3-4, 2.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 47 K; Shohei Ohtani, 2-2, 0.97 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 37.0 IP, 42 K. Current market range used: SFG +199 to +235, LAD -240 to -312, full-game total 8.0 to 8.5. Consensus value table uses SFG +215, LAD -270, full-game total 8.0.
Team baseline is heavily LAD: SFG has scored 139 runs with a .244 AVG, .292 OBP, .364 SLG, and 3.4 runs/game; LAD has scored 206 runs with a .265 AVG, .344 OBP, .434 SLG, and 5.02 runs/game. SFG staff profile is 4.03 ERA / 1.34 WHIP; LAD staff profile is 3.42 ERA / 1.139 WHIP.
Lineup basis: SFG — Willy Adames, Luis Arraez, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Casey Schmitt, Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee, Harrison Bader, Jesus Rodriguez. LAD — Dalton Rushing, Miguel Rojas, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Andy Pages, Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy, Santiago Espinal. Mookie Betts is not expected to start, and Ohtani may not hit while pitching; that creates a material LAD lineup deduction even with Ohtani’s pitching edge.
Ray’s recent form is steady but walk-prone. His May starts total 12 1/3 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 3 HR, 4 BB, 12 K; his full 2026 game log shows 5+ IP in every start and no outing above 3 ER. His road profile is weaker than the season line: 4.15 ERA in 17 1/3 road innings, with the team losing all three of his road starts.
Ohtani is the main suppressor. He has 6 starts, 37.0 IP, 0.97 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 42 K, and only 4 ER allowed. His home split: 18 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 8 BB, 1.00 ERA. His prior start was 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K.
Batter-vs-pitcher edge is mixed. Dodgers with strong historical samples vs Ray include Miguel Rojas, Enrique Hernández if active, and Freddie Freeman; Will Smith and Max Muncy have weaker samples. Ohtani’s pitching history vs SFG is excellent at 0.43 ERA and 25 K in 4 appearances, but most of that is older than the core modeling window, so it was used lightly.
Weather/park: Dodger Stadium is outdoor, with game weather around 63-64°F, 0% precipitation, and light wind. The park/weather adjustment is slight-over for wind but still modest overall because temperature is not especially hot.
Starting Pitcher Projection
Starting pitcher | Team | Projected IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Robbie Ray | SFG | 5 2/3 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 |
Shohei Ohtani | LAD | 6 1/3 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 1.9 |
Tokyo's Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Team | Rank 1-30 | OPS |
|---|---|---|
LAD | 6 | .895 |
SFG | 26 | .641 |
Boxscore projection | SFG | LAD |
|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 1.2 | 2.2 |
Full game | 3.0 | 4.5 |