Final Four Predictions and Betting Preview: Kansas vs North Carolina
Sportsmemo handicapper JM Sports gives his Kansas Jayhawks vs North Carolina Tar Heels predictions and betting preview for the National Championship on Monday, April 4. At the time of posting, the Jayhawks are favored by 4-points against the Wildcats with the total sitting at 133 points.
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Monday, April 4 | National Championship Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Kansas Jayhawks -4 vs North Carolina Tar Heels |
Total: | 152 Points |
Game Time: | Approx. 9:20pm ET / 6:20pm PT |
Arena: | Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA |
TV: | TBS |
Kansas vs North Carolina Analysis
North Carolina has continued to be the team to end the big story lines of this March Madness Tournament. They took down the “Cinderella Story” in Saint Peter’s, they ended Coach K’s final run in March Madness, and now this 8 seed is set to take on Kansas for the National Championship.
The ACC has produced three of the last six National Champions in basketball, on top of UNC being the runner-up in 2016 after falling to Villanova.
Virginia took the title in 2019, North Carolina won in 2017, and Duke took the crown in 2015, winning every other title in the last 6 years, and that trend could potentially continue (due to the shut down of the tournament due to Covid in 2020).
Now this North Carolina team that has continued to defy the odds is just a 4 point underdog against Kansas.
The Tar Heels hold the 18th best offense, in terms of efficiency, which includes being the 83rd team in effective FG% (shooting 52%), and sitting 52nd in TO% lost on the season, protecting the ball better then a good majority of teams in the nation.
They have been able to score from all levels ranking 50th shooting the ball from beyond the arc, and sitting at 32nd in FT%, taking advantage of nearly every opportunity from the charity stripe.
This team knows how to share the ball, ranking 83rd in assist to field goals made, assisting on over 54% of their made shots this season.
Tar Heels Play Smart and Tall
Their massive height advantage has also benefited them on the offensive side, as well as the defensive, propelling them to the 74th best team in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, behind the likes of Armando Bacot (25th in the nation).
Although, that height is a distinctive advantage on the defensive end as well. They are the 2nd best team in the nation at preventing the offensive rebounds, which is one of Kansas’s big strengths, as well as ranking in the top-100 defending shots inside the arc.
Yet, as I have said before, one thing you cannot always teach is the ability to play smart, and that is something that this North Carolina team possesses, ranking 8th in the country in FT attempts allowed per FG attempt, allowing just over 2 FT attempts for every 10 shot attempts this season.
North Carolina has played one of the hardest schedules in the country, ranking 23rd in SOS, but they have played the 8th hardest schedule in the nation when you look at the offensive units they have gone up against.
They are accustomed to playing top offensive talent, and they have taken down 6 of the last 7 teams that they have faced that rank in the top-25 offensively. While also taking down 3 straight defensive units that rank in the top-40.
Kansas Keeps Dominating
Kansas comes into yet another game as a favorite, but the line hasn’t mattered much to them this year, they have dominated the teams that they have played in the tournament, including their 16 point win against Villanova!
Now this Jayhawks team that ranks in the top-20 offensively and defensively takes on what is the lone remaining foe, but a foe that shouldn’t be underestimated.
Kansas is 26th in the nation in effective FG% (shooting nearly 54%), stemming from the 52nd best shooting percentage from deep (36.1%), and the 38th best shooting percentage from inside the arc (nearly 54%).
They are 36th in offensive rebound percentage in the country, behind David McCormack who ranks 4th in the nation, and they know how to share the ball almost as well as North Carolina, assisting on 54% of all made shots this season.
Yet their defense may be even more impressive on the year, they are 25th defending against shots beyond the arc, as they look to shut down an offense that has prioritized the deep ball. But they are also the 55th best team in the country defending shots inside the arc.
Kansas vs North Carolina Prediction
One thing that we don’t see very often from Kansas and these other “one-and-done” schools is experience, while Kansas isn’t exactly near the top, being the 128th team in the country in average experience is more experience then a lot of these schools are used to.
Some of these players have a history in March Madness, and they have a history competing in big games.
While they have three main guys in terms of minutes played, with Christian Braun, Ochai Agbaji, and Dajuan Harris being the lone three guys that have played in over 70% of the teams minutes, the production of this team is coming from everywhere.
Every player that has appeared in 7% or more of the team’s minutes has been utilized in 13% or more of the possessions they have been on the court for.
Six of those players have taken > 20% of the shots while they are on the court, but 10 players are shooting > 50% in true shooting % on the season! McCormack and Jalen Wilson have been the two biggest threats at crashing the boards, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball.
While Ochai Agbaji has been the definitive threat from beyond the arc, ranking 122nd in the nation shooting over 41% from deep.
Although, another big contribution from McCormack has been the fact that he ranks in the top-60 in the division-1 level when it comes to drawing fouls, drawing nearly six fouls per 40 minutes.
Not only is he drawing those attempts at free points, but he is capitalizing on those opportunities, shooting nearly 76% from the charity stripe!!
Prediction: Kansas -4, but I find it hard to bet against an underdog playing as good as North Carolina is down the stretch.
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🤑🔥 The NCAA Championship is scheduled for later tonight, which team will hoist the trophy? Not to mention, #NBA Playoffs and the 2022 #MLB season are on the horizon. Check out who’s been running HOT over at https://t.co/W41QI6QAeC! pic.twitter.com/mGr8PIDS7J
— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) April 4, 2022
Kansas vs North Carolina GoldSheet Preview
College Basketball Stat Sheet
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