Razor Ray Monohan

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Seattle Seahawks +9.5 (-110)

Seahawks +9.5

Dallas and Seattle have tee'd it up 21x, including two playoff matchups. In the regular season, Dallas has won 10 and Seattle 9, but in their recent 4 regular-season meetings, the Seahawks have came out on top. I was hoping this line would reach +10 but I just can't wait any longer as you all need a play from me for Thursday Night Football. Over 47.5. Tonight, the Seahawks (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS) are playing the Cowboys (8-3, 8-3 ATS). The game is set to start at 8:15pm ET and will be available on Prime Video. Cowboys are -9.5pt favorite, the O/U is set at 47.5. ML straight up bettors will be able to get the Seahawks at +341, and the Cowboys are a -447 ML favorite. I'm not the one to tell you the Seahawks can win this game tonight, but it is the NFL at the end of the day so "any given Thursday" right? But I will tell you the Seahawks SHOULD keep this one within the number. I just don't love it enough to make it a premium play. The Cowboys have been doing well lately, winning five out of their last six after a tough 42-10 loss to the 49ers.The Seahawks have lost 2 in a row and 3 of 4, 49ers and Eagles up next. This is a tough stretch no doubt, but do we really know if the Cowboys are a good team? They've won games, sure, but they've beaten 7 teams that are under .500. I think Seattle can keep the score respectable here by also getting into the endzone and the red zone. Seattle has been up and down here in 2023 and they know this is the kind of game where they have to step up on the offensive side. Look for them to open things up a bit more as they will take plenty of shots down field. Washington moved the ball last week at times against Dallas and they're going to have success doing the same in this one. Both teams played last Thursday, so they are rested and playing on a normal 7 days rest. The Hawks will have to score to keep up. I think they can. They have the weapons too. Metcalf, Lockett, Smith-Njigba, and Charbonnet are all "ball-players!" Trends, Seattle has historically done well against Dallas. hey are 4-1 ATS L5, 4-1 SU L5 vs. Dallas. They're 5-2 ATS L7 vs. NFC teams, and 16-4 SU L20 vs. NFC East teams. On the flip side Big D is 4-12 L16 vs. NFC West teams. Back the Hawks ATS tonight. If Dallas wins, it's by less than 8. Hop on! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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The PLAY: Total Under 66.0 (-108)

UNDER 66

2023 Pac 12 Championship Game. Ducks are -9.5pt favorites, the O/U is set at 66.5. (11-1, 8-2-1 ATS) Oregon take on the (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) Washington on Friday night from Las Vegas. Recently, the Ducks have been dominant, winning 20 out of 28. In the most recent head-to-head matchup between the teams, Washington picked up the 37-34 win (last year). Earlier this year Oregon suffered their only Pac-12 loss in dramatic fashion as UW scored a go-ahead TD with just over a minute left to win at Husky Stadium, 36-33. The Ducks had a big win last week, beating the Oregon St. 31-7. The Huskies are coming off an APPLE CUP win, where they defeated WSU 24-21. All we need for the UNDER to hit is 1 of these top offenses needs to be held in check. I don't think we see the same type of shootout game as we saw last time they matched up. Sure 2 STUD QB's are lining up in this one, but the defenses can play too, and there's a lot of pride in these locker-rooms. Dawgs have taken the Ducks down twice in the last two years, so perhaps they have a recipe for success in the Pac 12 too? So many variables and factors in this one. This is a MASSIVE game, and DEFENSE wins championships. Trends, Oregon's totals have gone UNDER in 4 of L5 in December. UW's totals have gone UNDER in 4 of L6 vs. Oregon, plus the UNDER has hit in 7 of UW's L9 when playing as a DOG. Don't overthink it! BACK THE UNDER. Hop on. Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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The PLAY: Total Under 47.5 (-112)

UNDER 47.5

On Sunday, the Broncos (6-5, 2-2 AWAY, 4-6-1 ATS) are set to face off against the Texans (6-5, 4-2 HOME, 5-6 ATS) at NRG Stadium, with the game scheduled to kick off at 1pm ET CBS for TV.  The Texans were initially favored by -3 points, and the Over/Under (O/U) for the game was set at 46.5 points. Stats: Denver allowing 21PPG (14th), Houston 25PPG (29th), Scoring: DVR 22PPG (13th), HOU 23PPG (10th). Both are bottom 20 in the Red Zone, so that's a WIN. Both like to run the ball (Top 18 in attempts), and both Denver is exceptional running. 115YPG (12th). Last game out the Broncos kept their hot streak alive with a 29-12 W over the Browns at home. Call me crazy but I'm actually buying what Russell is selling. Maybe the Broncs have the run game to thank. The Perine/Williams combo seems like a match made in heaven as a 1-2 punch, the more they run, the more the clock moves, which I'm a fan of, when I have a play on an UNDER posted. I also haven't been overly impressed with the Broncos RUN D, I mean they're serviceable, but are you starting them in FFL? I'm not, so, having said that, I think Singletary can have himself a game this week too. Houston will use the run to set up play-action, we know that. The DVR pass rush is all world currently. These guys are really getting home, but the RUN-D isn't all world yet. The Texans are one of the surprise teams this year, but I'm not convinced yet. They were good, but not good enough to take out the Jags on Sunday and lost 24-21. The Broncos will have a gameplan ready for Dell and Stroud, there's plenty of film on these guys now, and I don't foresee too many surprises. Past matchups: 9/18/22 Denver 16, Houston 9. Since 2007 8 matchups, Denver leads 5-3. Some trends, UNDER is 4-0 in Broncs L4 following an ATS win. We've seen the TOTAL hit the UNDER in 5 of Denver's L6, and all of their recent five matchups vs. AFC South teams. Last one, UNDER is 8-1 L9 for the Broncs vs. a team with a winning home record. For Houston the UNDER has hit in 6 of their L8, plus in 4 of 5 vs. the Broncos recently. In Houston's L5 games vs. Denver at home the UNDER has hit 4x. You know what to do! Hop on! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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