GONZAGA @ SANTA CLARA! College Basketball Banger! Top Capper 3 of 5 Years | +Profit 5/6 Years

Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(667) Georgia at (668) Oklahoma: Total	3:30pm EST - Feb 14/2026

The PLAY: Total Under 165.0 (-108)

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Georgia Bulldogs @ Oklahoma Sooners — today (Feb 14, 2026)

Team comparison chart

Category	Georgia	Oklahoma
Points per game (since 1/1/26)	79.4	79.1
Points allowed per game (since 1/1/26)	76.8	79.6
Top 2 leading scorers	Asa Newell 15.5; Silas Demary Jr 13.2	Xzayvier Brown 16.6; Nijel Pack 15.9
Assist leader	Demary Jr 3.3	Brown 3.4
Top 2 rebounders	Newell 7.1; Dylan James 5.2	Mohamed Wague 6.6; Tae Davis 6.4
Injuries	none major listed	none major listed

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Score projection + spread/total breakdown

Projected score:
Georgia 80 — Oklahoma 79

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Trends since 1/1/26

Georgia

• SEC schedule — mostly Quad-1/Quad-2 quality.

• Several high-tempo games (OT vs Auburn reached 204 total points).

• Recent stretch shows defensive slippage vs elite offenses (ex: Texas 87).

• ATS shape: inconsistent; offense strong enough to cover as dogs.

Oklahoma

• Hit a nine-game losing streak before upsetting Vanderbilt.

• Defense has allowed many games into high 70s/80s (Arkansas 83, Texas A&M 83, Texas 79).

• ATS profile: volatile — huge swing between competitive losses and defensive collapses.

Matchup vs sportsbook number

• Market hanging 164.5 → clearly pricing SEC pace + weak defense combo.

• If this turns into a half-court game, under hits easily.

• If pace pushes 70+ possessions, total explodes.

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Player matchup breakdown (competition-adjusted)

Georgia’s edge is frontcourt pressure via Asa Newell, who thrives against physical SEC defenders; Oklahoma’s interior (Wague + Davis) has size but can be dragged away from the rim in transition and pick-and-pop actions. If Georgia forces early switches, Newell becomes a mismatch magnet and Georgia’s offense flows.

Backcourt chess: Xzayvier Brown vs Silas Demary Jr is the key tempo lever. Brown is Oklahoma’s stabilizer and late-clock creator; when SEC defenses pressure him, turnovers rise, and Oklahoma’s offense turns jump-shot heavy. Georgia’s guards don’t defend perfectly, but they generate enough pace that Oklahoma may be forced to run — which inflates scoring variance.

Nijel Pack gives Oklahoma volatility: when he hits early threes, totals fly over because Oklahoma accelerates pace and spacing. If he starts cold, Oklahoma tends to grind and scoring compresses.

Level of competition factor: Georgia has spent more time against top-tier SEC athleticism recently, which typically hardens defensive rotations — slight intangible edge in late-game possessions.

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Why I am betting Under 163.5 or higher

• The number is already sky-high for a conference game. At 164.5/165, you basically need both teams to live in the 80s, or one team to nuke the other while the loser still scores ~75+. One cold shooting stretch (very normal in college hoops) can kill that.

• A bunch of the “recent overs” are OT-inflated. Georgia–Tennessee went to OT (86–85), and Oklahoma–Missouri went to OT (88–87). That’s free points that the market remembers, but OT is not a repeatable skill. If this stays in regulation, Under 165 becomes a lot more realistic.

• Georgia’s pace can help the under… because it also creates empty possessions. They play fast, but fast doesn’t always mean efficient—quick shots + turnovers = possessions that burn very little clock without producing points. That’s how you get 70+ possessions and still land in the 150s.

• Oklahoma’s offense has been volatile (and confidence matters). They’d been on a nine-game losing streak before the Vanderbilt upset. That kind of stretch usually comes with uneven shot quality and stretches where the offense stalls—exactly what an under wants.

• Both teams have shown they can win/compete without a mega-total. In the “last five” show totals like 148 (OU–Texas) and 152/154/154 in several Georgia games. The ceiling is high, but the floor is also very under-friendly if one side’s 3s don’t fall.

• A tight spread often brings a late-game script that doesn’t automatically force an over. With a one-possession type line (DK spread ~1.5), you often get longer half-court possessions late + “don’t foul too early” coaching. You only get the full foul-fest if it’s 2 possessions with ~30 seconds left.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
JBL	(301265) Nagasaki at (301266) Gunma: Moneyline	1:05am EST - Feb 14/2026

The PLAY: Gunma 163

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Nagasaki at Gunma (2/14/2026) — Game 1 of 2

Team snapshot (since 10/2/2025)

Category	Nagasaki	Gunma
Points per game	93.3	82.9
Points allowed per game	77.8	74.3
Injuries	Shota Sugano ACL surgery (Jan 2026)	Trey McKinney Jones re-added to injury list (Jan 30, 2026; 2–3 week estimate)

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Player vs player matchups (what matters on-court)

Even without full per-player stat tables, the roles are clear from league/team context:

• Johnson (Nagasaki) vs Gunma’s primary stopper wing/big switch: Johnson is a high-usage scorer (22.6 PPG), and this matchup is basically “can Gunma keep him out of the paint without giving up Nagasaki’s 3-point volume?” If Gunma has to overhelp, Nagasaki’s season profile says they’re comfortable letting it fly from three.

• Nagasaki spacing vs Gunma defense: Nagasaki’s offense is built on high made-threes and efficiency; Gunma’s identity is holding opponents down (74.3 allowed). Whoever wins that tug-of-war probably wins the total, too.

• Glass + second chances: These teams aren’t wildly separated on team rebounding totals, but Gunma’s defense tends to keep games from turning into track meets—so a few extra offensive boards can swing spread outcomes more than usual.

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Form + home/away (last 10 games, computed from game logs since 10/2/2025)

From each club’s most recent 10:

• Nagasaki last 10: 91.2 scored / 80.1 allowed (total environment ~171.3).

  • Last 10 home: 93.2 / 77.0

  • Last 10 away: 89.2 / 83.2

• Gunma last 10: 83.1 scored / 71.9 allowed (total environment ~155.0).

  • Last 10 home: 88.0 / 71.2

  • Last 10 away: 78.2 / 72.6

That clash is why the market total sits in the mid-160s: Nagasaki brings offense, Gunma brings containment.

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1) Buying plus-money on a defense that’s been elite all season

Gunma is allowing just 74.3 PPG, holding opponents to 43.9% FG and 33.3% from 3 across 37 games. That’s the profile that can “steal” a game even when the other team is better offensively.

2) The matchup is basically “Gunma’s 3-point defense vs Nagasaki’s 3-point identity”

Nagasaki’s offense is powered by volume + efficiency from deep: 13.4 threes made per game on 38.6%. If Gunma keeps that closer to “normal human basketball,” Nagasaki’s scoring can drop fast.

3) Low-possession games are underdog candy

Gunma’s season scoring environment (82.9 for / 74.3 against) is naturally lower than Nagasaki’s (93.3 for / 77.8 against). If Gunma dictates tempo, fewer possessions means more variance → more upset equity.

4) Late-game math favors Gunma if it’s close

Gunma shoots 79.0% FT (solid for closing) and commits only 11.2 turnovers per game in the team stats table. If you’re holding a dog ML ticket, you want the game to be tight in the last 3 minutes—Gunma’s profile supports that.

5) They have a stable on-ball engine to keep it organized

Yuma Fujii leads Gunma in assists and steals (and is listed as their points leader in the RealGM leaders section), which matters because “live underdog” games die when the dog can’t generate decent shots late.

6) The price itself gives room to be “kinda right”

Market examples I’m seeing have Gunma around 2.55 decimal (≈ +155) and +164 in another book view—meaning you only need roughly ~38–39% true win probability to break even. Gunma’s defense + home floor can plausibly get you there.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
BSB	Gonzaga at Hawaii	11:35pm EST - Feb 13/2026

The PLAY: Hawaii -210

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Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers over the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Gonzaga at Hawaiʻi — Feb 13, 2026 (Opening Day)

Likely Friday starters

• Gonzaga: Finbar O'Brien (2025: 6–1, 5.78 ERA, 1.48 WHIP; 83 K / 31 BB in 71.2 IP)

• Hawaiʻi: Isaiah Magdaleno (2025: 2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP; 77 K / 11 BB in 60.0 IP; 9 saves)
  Note: Magdaleno’s 2025 line is as an elite bullpen arm; projecting him as a starter adds some “how’s the stamina first time out?” uncertainty.

What drives the edge

Pitcher form (baseline = 2025 production)

• Magdaleno’s run prevention + command profile is dramatically better (2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 77/11 K/BB) than O’Brien’s (5.78 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 83/31 K/BB).

Batter form (team-level + key bats)

• Hawaiʻi 2025 offense: .286 AVG / .385 OBP, 364 runs in 56 games (~6.50 R/G).
  Key return bats include Matthew Miura (.338) and Ben Zeigler-Namoa (.333).

• Gonzaga 2025 offense: .273 AVG / .360 OBP, 319 runs in 53 games (~6.02 R/G).
  Headliner: Mikey Bell hit .360 with 11 HR.

Bullpen / staff quality

• Hawaiʻi staff: 4.25 team ERA (and the program notes they’ve been top-20 nationally in ERA in both 2024 and 2025).

• Gonzaga staff: 5.89 team ERA, and allowed 71 HR in 2025.

Context bump

• Opening weekend at Les Murakami Stadium, where Hawaiʻi has been a strong home team in recent seasons per the series preview.

Win probability + American odds (from that probability)

Projected winner: Hawaiʻi

Quick read: Hawaiʻi’s pitching/staff quality is the big lever; Gonzaga’s path is basically “Magdaleno doesn’t look like 2025 Magdaleno as a starter, and Gonzaga’s lineup gets to Hawaiʻi’s middle relief early.”