Tom Macrina

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Total Over 41.5 (-108)

Head-to-Head History

Chargers have historically owned the series, but the only prior meeting in Los Angeles went to Philadelphia 26-24.
Most recent matchup: 2021 in Philadelphia → Chargers won 27-24.
Chargers have taken 3 of the last 4 meetings overall.
Last 4 H2H games all finished with both teams scoring 24+ points (average total: 53.5 PPG).
Recent trend: 6-1 to the Over between these franchises (though the sample is old).

Current Records & Betting Trends

Both teams enter 8-4 straight up.
Eagles: 7-5 ATS | 4-2 ATS on the road | 2-2 ATS last 4 | 3-3 O/U on road
Chargers: 6-6 ATS | 4-2 ATS at home | 6-6 O/U overall
Chargers have won & covered their last 3 home games.
Eagles have lost & failed to cover their last 2 games.

Team-Level Performance

Chargers rank as a solidly average offense and one of the league’s better scoring defenses (top-8 in points allowed).
Eagles’ offense has cratered over the last month, averaging just 15.5 PPG over the L4, while the defense has carried them (allowing 16.0 PPG in that span).

Key Injuries

Eagles: OUT – DT Jalen Carter (massive loss to interior pass rush & run defense), RT Lane Johnson (Eagles are historically poor without him protecting Hurts’ blindside; OL run-blocking also suffers).
Chargers: Justin Herbert is expected to play. RB Omarion Hampton is also expected back — big boost to a ground game that has been solid.

Matchup Angles

Eagles got gashed for 200+ rushing yards by Chicago last week. The Chargers, with a healthy Hampton and Herbert’s play-action threat, should be able to exploit that softness on the ground.
Conversely, the Chargers rank bottom-10 against the run. If Saquon Barkley and the Eagles can re-establish the run game, it should open the RPO and play-action game for Jalen Hurts — an area where Hurts has historically feasted on the road.
With Jalen Carter sidelined, Herbert should have cleaner pockets and more time to attack downfield against an Eagles secondary that can be had when the pass rush disappears.

Bottom Line
This has all the makings of a competitive, relatively high scoring affair despite the low total (41.5). Both offenses have clear paths to success on the ground, which should loosen up the passing games and keep the clock moving less than usual. The last four meetings all cleared 48+ points, and the personnel/matchup weaknesses line up for both sides to reach the 20s again.
Play: Over 41.5

Let's cash some tickets!

The PLAY: Southern +22.5 (-110)

Texas is rightfully a massive favorite — they’re a top-25 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and sit 6-3 (5-4 ATS) on the season. But this is a classic look ahead spot. The Longhorns play at UConn in just four days — a marquee non-conference showdown they’ve had circled for months. It’s hard to imagine Sean Miller’s squad bringing maximum focus against an overmatched SWAC opponent sandwiched in the schedule.
Southern is only 2-6 on the year and 1-4 against Division I competition, but the Jaguars can fill it up. They’re averaging 78.6 PPG in their five D-I games with legitimate scoring depth — five players averaging 9.0+ PPG. They’ve scored 75+ in four of those five contests. The problem, as expected, is on the other end: they defend poorly and rank 350+ nationally in turnover percentage.
Still, Texas has shown a tendency to take the foot off the gas when leads balloon. They’ve won their four home games against sub-200 KenPom teams by 18, 24, 27, and 31 — but three of those four saw the final margin land inside 25 points once garbage time hit. KenPom projects this game at just a 16-point Texas win (92-76), giving us 6.5+ points of closing-line value at the current number.
One final sharp angle: Southern is 17-4 ATS (81%) since the start of the 2024 calendar year following a home victory. They’re coming off a win over Louisiana Christian last time out.
Give me the road dog with offensive firepower in a game Texas has little incentive to run up the score.
Play: Southern +22.5

Let's cash some tickets!